Personally I would never risk 10% of my bankroll on 1 bet. I think 2%-4% is much more reasonable. But I do believe in playing less games. I myself have been trying to make less bets at a time. I played 7 on saturday, 2 yesterday and 2 so far today. I just don't see the advantage to playing a max of more then 7 bets in one day. I've tried it in NFL and it always causes a day of .500 at best.
my 2 cents :toast:
I'm going to try to be more consistent with my bets. 2-4% for regular bets with 5-7% for large bets. I really got caught up in opening weekend and just wanted to get as much skin out there as possible. I've never worked with this amount of money before, and I am used to playing a lot of games. Personally, I turned 700 bucks into 7k last year. Had a day where I went 16-4, with a $100 3 teamer. USC/ Ohio St -2.5 over Wisky (500 on each team, 500 parlay) capped it at +3500 for the day.
I understand repeating such a day is highly unlikely and I'm just going to burn cash trying to do so.
I appreciate all the advice. I do my homework with the games, but this kind of input will help me become better with the math and wager sizes.
I understand repeating such a day is highly unlikely and I'm just going to burn cash trying to do so.
I appreciate all the advice. I do my homework with the games, but this kind of input will help me become better with the math and wager sizes.
Games for my week 2 thread.
I was making picks for week 2 on my wagerline account and a couple of games have peaked my interest (thoughts would be appreciated):
Memphis (pk) v Midd Tenn St
North Carolina (-5) v UCONN
Duke v Army (-2.5)
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
Houston (+15.5) v OkieSt
BYU (-17) v Tulane
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
USC (-6.5) v Ohio St
Purdue (+11.5) v Oregon -- really like this one with the RB from Oregon suspended for the year.
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These are just some games that stood out. Gonna try to narrow it down to 4-5 picks for Saturday.
I was making picks for week 2 on my wagerline account and a couple of games have peaked my interest (thoughts would be appreciated):
Memphis (pk) v Midd Tenn St
North Carolina (-5) v UCONN
Duke v Army (-2.5)
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
Houston (+15.5) v OkieSt
BYU (-17) v Tulane
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
USC (-6.5) v Ohio St
Purdue (+11.5) v Oregon -- really like this one with the RB from Oregon suspended for the year.
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These are just some games that stood out. Gonna try to narrow it down to 4-5 picks for Saturday.
Fuck me, I had a really good analysis of Memphis and then i clicked reload for some reason and lost it all.
---- Here was the gist.
The Memphis v Ole Miss score is very misleading. I turned the game off in the 3rd quarter and looking at the boxscore, I can tell that Memphis lost control late in the 4th quarter. RB Curtis Steele really impress me in this game. The man ran for 90 yards and 2 tds on a good SEC team. I like his down-hill running approached. There are so many backs out there that try to juke their way through the line and end up getting pulled down by fast DEs. Steele lowers the shoulder and delivers the blow. Memphis was covering this game at the 6:14 mark in the 4th (14-31 assuming you got +17.5). Ole Miss scored 21 unanswered including a TD with :06 to go in the game. The INT late killed Memphis and Ole Miss ran up 2 scores within 1:06.
Again, when I was watching the game, Memphis gave Ole Miss all they could handle. This week when they travel to Mid Ten St, they will continue to pound the ball with Steele and Smith. If Memphis doesn't have to rely on throwing the bal (even though Duke Calhoun has some real potential at wide out), I think they will run up and down the field on Mid Tenn St.
---- Here was the gist.
The Memphis v Ole Miss score is very misleading. I turned the game off in the 3rd quarter and looking at the boxscore, I can tell that Memphis lost control late in the 4th quarter. RB Curtis Steele really impress me in this game. The man ran for 90 yards and 2 tds on a good SEC team. I like his down-hill running approached. There are so many backs out there that try to juke their way through the line and end up getting pulled down by fast DEs. Steele lowers the shoulder and delivers the blow. Memphis was covering this game at the 6:14 mark in the 4th (14-31 assuming you got +17.5). Ole Miss scored 21 unanswered including a TD with :06 to go in the game. The INT late killed Memphis and Ole Miss ran up 2 scores within 1:06.
Again, when I was watching the game, Memphis gave Ole Miss all they could handle. This week when they travel to Mid Ten St, they will continue to pound the ball with Steele and Smith. If Memphis doesn't have to rely on throwing the bal (even though Duke Calhoun has some real potential at wide out), I think they will run up and down the field on Mid Tenn St.
North Carolina (-5) v Uconn
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I didn't get a chance to see either NC or UConn play this weekend. With that said, I've had NC circled on my teams to watch list since early August. Last year they went 8-4 ATS and while I know that most teams do not repeat such success ATS, I don't beleive that Vegas wil be adjusting these lines are tightly as some other teams that smoked them. For the most part, NC flew under the bettors radar. I think I might have wagered on 1 game and clearly I missed out on a lot of cash. QB Yates is looking to build on a 2008 season where he had 11 TD and 4 ints. Yates went 9 for 20 (114 yards), with 2 tds and 1 int. Shaun Draughn added 118 yards on the ground. Is NC for real this year? Do they deserve the #20 ranking? Dunno. Lotta things have to be seen from this team.
UConn: Can they beat good teams without Donald Brown?
Donald Brown was the man at UConn last year. He absolutely dominated teams. UConn went 5-0 ATS their first 5, then dropped a few game and ended up 7-5 ATS on the year (losing to NC and 3 big east teams). NC spanked UConn last year 38-12 at home (as a 4 point chalk).
NC returns 6 on offense (including QB, RB, a WR, and a 3 OL) and 9 on defense. I believe the 9 returners on defense vs the loss of Donald Brown is going to be the key to this game. Again, Citadel sucks, but then again so does Ohio.
This won't be much of a revenge game. This game is going to be up to how much offense production NC can creat. Prediction: NC holds UConn to less thna 14 and puts up 21 or more.
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I didn't get a chance to see either NC or UConn play this weekend. With that said, I've had NC circled on my teams to watch list since early August. Last year they went 8-4 ATS and while I know that most teams do not repeat such success ATS, I don't beleive that Vegas wil be adjusting these lines are tightly as some other teams that smoked them. For the most part, NC flew under the bettors radar. I think I might have wagered on 1 game and clearly I missed out on a lot of cash. QB Yates is looking to build on a 2008 season where he had 11 TD and 4 ints. Yates went 9 for 20 (114 yards), with 2 tds and 1 int. Shaun Draughn added 118 yards on the ground. Is NC for real this year? Do they deserve the #20 ranking? Dunno. Lotta things have to be seen from this team.
UConn: Can they beat good teams without Donald Brown?
Donald Brown was the man at UConn last year. He absolutely dominated teams. UConn went 5-0 ATS their first 5, then dropped a few game and ended up 7-5 ATS on the year (losing to NC and 3 big east teams). NC spanked UConn last year 38-12 at home (as a 4 point chalk).
NC returns 6 on offense (including QB, RB, a WR, and a 3 OL) and 9 on defense. I believe the 9 returners on defense vs the loss of Donald Brown is going to be the key to this game. Again, Citadel sucks, but then again so does Ohio.
This won't be much of a revenge game. This game is going to be up to how much offense production NC can creat. Prediction: NC holds UConn to less thna 14 and puts up 21 or more.
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
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The Buffs beat up on a terrible UTEP team (great pick Kelso) despite being a 6 point dog. The Buffs return 6 on offense and 9 on defense. QB Zach Maynard debuted completing 12 out of 19 passes for 159 yards and 1 TD. RBs Thermilus and Henry both added a TD of their own. Roosevelt Naaman caught caught 5 passes for 91 yards and 1 TD. While the Buffs are 2-9 against Big East teams in their last 11, they did cover last year at Pitt as a 13 point dog.
Shit going into the 4th quarter, this game was 16-17 Pitt.
Pitt returns both 7 on offense and 7 on defense. Their defensive line is probably the best part about this team. This is where I could see Buffalo having trouble. Their ground attack is solid, but if Pitt's DL can blowup the Buffs backfield 80% of the time, the Buffs running game wil be shut down and I don't hold out to much hope if they have to go to the air early.
I really don't like giving Buffalo 11 points. Again, after this quick analysis, I'll probably dump this game.
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The Buffs beat up on a terrible UTEP team (great pick Kelso) despite being a 6 point dog. The Buffs return 6 on offense and 9 on defense. QB Zach Maynard debuted completing 12 out of 19 passes for 159 yards and 1 TD. RBs Thermilus and Henry both added a TD of their own. Roosevelt Naaman caught caught 5 passes for 91 yards and 1 TD. While the Buffs are 2-9 against Big East teams in their last 11, they did cover last year at Pitt as a 13 point dog.
Shit going into the 4th quarter, this game was 16-17 Pitt.
Pitt returns both 7 on offense and 7 on defense. Their defensive line is probably the best part about this team. This is where I could see Buffalo having trouble. Their ground attack is solid, but if Pitt's DL can blowup the Buffs backfield 80% of the time, the Buffs running game wil be shut down and I don't hold out to much hope if they have to go to the air early.
I really don't like giving Buffalo 11 points. Again, after this quick analysis, I'll probably dump this game.
Houston +15.5 v Okie State
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Houston brings back 8 on offense, an offense that ranked #2 in passing (401.6 ypg) and #2 in offense (562.8 ypg) The offense returns 5,000 yard QB Case Keenum, 1000 yard running back Bryce Beall and 1000 yard wide receiver Tyron Carrier (along with LG, LT, C, RG). Houston lost at Okie St 37-56 last year in a game that yield 1182 total yards!
I like Houston +15.5 because I believe that Okie St could be riding real high after their 24-10 win over Georgia as 5.5 point fav.
Houston led the game 16-14 at halftime but got absolutely torched in the 3rd Quarter (28 unanswered points)
OkieSt gave up 162 yards passing vs Georgia. Georgia also had 2 fumbles lost and an INT. I'm suprised it wasn't worse then a 14 point win. QB Robinson was only 11 for 22 (not a great start for a potential heisman)
On the other hand, Casey Keenum threw 23 for 30 for 327yds and 4 tds. Understandably, the Northwestern defense is horseshit and Georgia is going to be an SEC contender. This game comes down to whether or not the OkieSt defensive backfield has been revamped. They only return 1 starter in Perrish Cox, which could be a good thing for new veteran DC Bill Young.
This week will be a real test for the OKST secondary.
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Houston brings back 8 on offense, an offense that ranked #2 in passing (401.6 ypg) and #2 in offense (562.8 ypg) The offense returns 5,000 yard QB Case Keenum, 1000 yard running back Bryce Beall and 1000 yard wide receiver Tyron Carrier (along with LG, LT, C, RG). Houston lost at Okie St 37-56 last year in a game that yield 1182 total yards!
I like Houston +15.5 because I believe that Okie St could be riding real high after their 24-10 win over Georgia as 5.5 point fav.
Houston led the game 16-14 at halftime but got absolutely torched in the 3rd Quarter (28 unanswered points)
OkieSt gave up 162 yards passing vs Georgia. Georgia also had 2 fumbles lost and an INT. I'm suprised it wasn't worse then a 14 point win. QB Robinson was only 11 for 22 (not a great start for a potential heisman)
On the other hand, Casey Keenum threw 23 for 30 for 327yds and 4 tds. Understandably, the Northwestern defense is horseshit and Georgia is going to be an SEC contender. This game comes down to whether or not the OkieSt defensive backfield has been revamped. They only return 1 starter in Perrish Cox, which could be a good thing for new veteran DC Bill Young.
This week will be a real test for the OKST secondary.
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
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I'm probably going to put this one in early and buy it down -.5 to -7. South Carolina looked dreadful (and so did NCState) in the season opener. Both teams sucked big time. So many missed opportunies. The lack of offense was just sickening. SC QB Garcia is god fucking awful.
SC had 256 total yards to NCState's 133. 133? OMG, OC kill yourself. South Carolina should have demolished NC State. They just could not finish drives. 16 first downs. 256 yards (the field is 100 yards, so you went 2.5 fields long and only put up 7?). South Carolina didn't punt the ball. Jesus how many fgs did they miss (can't remember the game much more then it was terrible)?
Georgia is going to come into this game pissed off. Beyond pissed off. They had 3 turnovers against OkieSt. I suspect Mike Bob and Mark Richt wil have a few words about fumbles this week. I don't see Georgia starting the season 0-2 and losing to South Carolina at home in the 1st game of conference play. Georgia will get the offense back on track this week. They scored more points in their opener against a much better team, despite having 3 turnovers. Georgia fumbled the ball on their on 11 yard line (led to an OkieSt field goal). Joe Cox sacked and fumbled at Geo 32 (led to OkieSt TD). 10 points off of turnovers. Georgia's offense will not make the same mistakes it did against OkieSt.
This might be my GOM. Chris Smelley kept South Carolina in the game last year. Garcia is dogshit. Georgia in a fucking rout.
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I'm probably going to put this one in early and buy it down -.5 to -7. South Carolina looked dreadful (and so did NCState) in the season opener. Both teams sucked big time. So many missed opportunies. The lack of offense was just sickening. SC QB Garcia is god fucking awful.
SC had 256 total yards to NCState's 133. 133? OMG, OC kill yourself. South Carolina should have demolished NC State. They just could not finish drives. 16 first downs. 256 yards (the field is 100 yards, so you went 2.5 fields long and only put up 7?). South Carolina didn't punt the ball. Jesus how many fgs did they miss (can't remember the game much more then it was terrible)?
Georgia is going to come into this game pissed off. Beyond pissed off. They had 3 turnovers against OkieSt. I suspect Mike Bob and Mark Richt wil have a few words about fumbles this week. I don't see Georgia starting the season 0-2 and losing to South Carolina at home in the 1st game of conference play. Georgia will get the offense back on track this week. They scored more points in their opener against a much better team, despite having 3 turnovers. Georgia fumbled the ball on their on 11 yard line (led to an OkieSt field goal). Joe Cox sacked and fumbled at Geo 32 (led to OkieSt TD). 10 points off of turnovers. Georgia's offense will not make the same mistakes it did against OkieSt.
This might be my GOM. Chris Smelley kept South Carolina in the game last year. Garcia is dogshit. Georgia in a fucking rout.
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
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Air Force crushed Nicholls St 72-0. Minnesota came out quick against Syracuse (14-3) but then just went stagnent on offense for 3 quarters and barely sqeeked by in OT). Could this be a wakeup call for Minny? I doubt it.
Air Force killed Nic St 72-0. In the game, AF handed the ball off to 13 different RBs (4 of which had touchdowns) who combined for 8 TDS and 474 yards! QB Tim Jeffeson rushed 22 yards and 2 TDs. He went 5-7 passing for 102 yds and 1 TD.
Minny got up quick off a bad snap by Syracuse on the first play of the game. Greg Paulus impressed me in this game. I talked a lot of shit on Syracuse and I apologize. They played a great game against Minnesota and deserved to win that game. However, their loss is our gain. Why? Minny still won the game. Even though they are going to get ripped at practice, they still won. The public only looks at the final score. Because of that, this line will probably settle at +5.5 or +6. I'll take those points any day with a team that is extremely motivated and extremely disciplined. Minny looked dead. They didn't even seem to want to be in Syracuse.
#1 reason why Air Force covers (and maybe wins outright) ---- The option.
I've always said this, "When run properly, the option is the most devastating play in college football." DEVASTATING! You all saw Ohio St struggle against Navy. Why? The triple option. How many teams run the option in the Big Ten. Uhhh, none?! Why prepare for an offense that only 1 of your opponents runs?
Bottom line: Minny goes home thinking they are good because they came back and beat a poor Syracuse team. Air Force comes in with a finely tuned option attack and blows Minny up in the running game. The Falcons also return 7 on defense (including 3 LBs and 3 in the secondary). The Weber-Decker connection seems a little broken this year. I expect AF to blanket Decker like Syracuse and shut him down yet again. Weber truely looked lost without his main receiver.
Air Force 34 Minnesolta 20
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Air Force crushed Nicholls St 72-0. Minnesota came out quick against Syracuse (14-3) but then just went stagnent on offense for 3 quarters and barely sqeeked by in OT). Could this be a wakeup call for Minny? I doubt it.
Air Force killed Nic St 72-0. In the game, AF handed the ball off to 13 different RBs (4 of which had touchdowns) who combined for 8 TDS and 474 yards! QB Tim Jeffeson rushed 22 yards and 2 TDs. He went 5-7 passing for 102 yds and 1 TD.
Minny got up quick off a bad snap by Syracuse on the first play of the game. Greg Paulus impressed me in this game. I talked a lot of shit on Syracuse and I apologize. They played a great game against Minnesota and deserved to win that game. However, their loss is our gain. Why? Minny still won the game. Even though they are going to get ripped at practice, they still won. The public only looks at the final score. Because of that, this line will probably settle at +5.5 or +6. I'll take those points any day with a team that is extremely motivated and extremely disciplined. Minny looked dead. They didn't even seem to want to be in Syracuse.
#1 reason why Air Force covers (and maybe wins outright) ---- The option.
I've always said this, "When run properly, the option is the most devastating play in college football." DEVASTATING! You all saw Ohio St struggle against Navy. Why? The triple option. How many teams run the option in the Big Ten. Uhhh, none?! Why prepare for an offense that only 1 of your opponents runs?
Bottom line: Minny goes home thinking they are good because they came back and beat a poor Syracuse team. Air Force comes in with a finely tuned option attack and blows Minny up in the running game. The Falcons also return 7 on defense (including 3 LBs and 3 in the secondary). The Weber-Decker connection seems a little broken this year. I expect AF to blanket Decker like Syracuse and shut him down yet again. Weber truely looked lost without his main receiver.
Air Force 34 Minnesolta 20
USC (-6) v OhioSt
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Don't like laying points at the Horseshoe, but I do not believe that OhioSt is all what they are hyped up to be. #6 in the nation, the Buckeyes narrowly avoided being upset by the Midshipman. Well, maybe it wasn't that narrow, but the Midshipman ran the ball very well (186 yards) on the Buckeyes. How did they do this? Triple Option. Like I stated in my last post, the option can be the most devastating play in colege football when run properly. OhioSt had a hell of a time containing Daniel Herron and Ricky Dobbs. Now, enter #4 USC. USC started slow against San Jose State. Real slow. In fact, SJSU was winning 3-0 at the end of the first. From then on it was all Trojans, scoring 28 14 14 respectively. The Trojans finished with 612 yards total offense with 343 on the ground and 278 in the air. The lone fg by SJSU was set up off of a poor 24 yard punt from the USC 10 to the USC 34. The Trojans gave up 112 yards in the air and only 9 on the ground. Clearly, the Trojan run defense is stronger then their passing defense.
Ok, now that I've talked about the openers. Let's talk about what happened last year. Domination. Domination happened last year.
The Buckeyes traveled across the country only to get their asses handed to them 35-3. Did Beanie get hurt in this game? Or was he already hurt? No matter, all we need to know was that he had 1 carry for -2 yards. Would a healthy Beanie Wells have made a big difference? I don't think so. Pesonally, I never though Beanie Well was that good of a player. Maybe I only saw him play when he was plague with injuries. I can't remember. What I do remember is that Mark Sanchez lit up the OhioSt seconary with 4 TDs and 1 INT. On the other hand QB Todd Boeckman passed for 82 yards and 2 INTs and was replaced by Terrel Pryor.
USC only returns 3 from the #1 defense. USC is a school that simply reloads. They have 2nd and 3rd team players who could easily start at many of the top 15 schools. IMO, Pete Caroll is a significantly better coach then Jim Tressel. Tressel fucked around last week and put Hauserman in when the Buckeyes went up quick against Navy. I understand the need to demo your 2nd team QB when you have a big lead, but come on, you almost cost your team the game (and you cost me 250 by .5 points). Hauser is not a good QB. If Pryor goes down, this could get ugly.
Final note. The Big Ten seems to be a very weak conference this year. Minny barely beat Syracuse, PSU didn't score in the 2nd half vs the Zips, Illinois got smoked by Mizz, and Wisconsin barely beat Northern Ill (28-20). The Pac 10 provide for a 56-3 USC blowout, Cal (I love this team) killing Maryland 52-14, Oregon St beatin Portland St 34-7, Stanford over Washington 39-13, UCLA 33-13 over SDST, Arizon St 50-3 over Idaho St, and Washington hanging with LSU 23-31. Albeit, some of the teams the Pac 10 played were not stellar, the Pac 10 seems to be one of the strongest conferences in the league.
Couple of Wagerline Stats:
USC is 10-1 ATS last 10 v Big Ten teams
USC is 14-5 ATS v teams with a winning record
OhioSt are 1-7 in last 8 at home.
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Don't like laying points at the Horseshoe, but I do not believe that OhioSt is all what they are hyped up to be. #6 in the nation, the Buckeyes narrowly avoided being upset by the Midshipman. Well, maybe it wasn't that narrow, but the Midshipman ran the ball very well (186 yards) on the Buckeyes. How did they do this? Triple Option. Like I stated in my last post, the option can be the most devastating play in colege football when run properly. OhioSt had a hell of a time containing Daniel Herron and Ricky Dobbs. Now, enter #4 USC. USC started slow against San Jose State. Real slow. In fact, SJSU was winning 3-0 at the end of the first. From then on it was all Trojans, scoring 28 14 14 respectively. The Trojans finished with 612 yards total offense with 343 on the ground and 278 in the air. The lone fg by SJSU was set up off of a poor 24 yard punt from the USC 10 to the USC 34. The Trojans gave up 112 yards in the air and only 9 on the ground. Clearly, the Trojan run defense is stronger then their passing defense.
Ok, now that I've talked about the openers. Let's talk about what happened last year. Domination. Domination happened last year.
The Buckeyes traveled across the country only to get their asses handed to them 35-3. Did Beanie get hurt in this game? Or was he already hurt? No matter, all we need to know was that he had 1 carry for -2 yards. Would a healthy Beanie Wells have made a big difference? I don't think so. Pesonally, I never though Beanie Well was that good of a player. Maybe I only saw him play when he was plague with injuries. I can't remember. What I do remember is that Mark Sanchez lit up the OhioSt seconary with 4 TDs and 1 INT. On the other hand QB Todd Boeckman passed for 82 yards and 2 INTs and was replaced by Terrel Pryor.
USC only returns 3 from the #1 defense. USC is a school that simply reloads. They have 2nd and 3rd team players who could easily start at many of the top 15 schools. IMO, Pete Caroll is a significantly better coach then Jim Tressel. Tressel fucked around last week and put Hauserman in when the Buckeyes went up quick against Navy. I understand the need to demo your 2nd team QB when you have a big lead, but come on, you almost cost your team the game (and you cost me 250 by .5 points). Hauser is not a good QB. If Pryor goes down, this could get ugly.
Final note. The Big Ten seems to be a very weak conference this year. Minny barely beat Syracuse, PSU didn't score in the 2nd half vs the Zips, Illinois got smoked by Mizz, and Wisconsin barely beat Northern Ill (28-20). The Pac 10 provide for a 56-3 USC blowout, Cal (I love this team) killing Maryland 52-14, Oregon St beatin Portland St 34-7, Stanford over Washington 39-13, UCLA 33-13 over SDST, Arizon St 50-3 over Idaho St, and Washington hanging with LSU 23-31. Albeit, some of the teams the Pac 10 played were not stellar, the Pac 10 seems to be one of the strongest conferences in the league.
Couple of Wagerline Stats:
USC is 10-1 ATS last 10 v Big Ten teams
USC is 14-5 ATS v teams with a winning record
OhioSt are 1-7 in last 8 at home.
Good luck with your AF/Minny bet. They looked horrible on Saturday...Brewer especially. I'd be worried about that game though - they'll be opening up their brand new outdoor stadium and I'm sure it will be sold out and they'll be ready to go. I expect Brewer to bounce back from that 19/40 performance too...just my 2 cents.
