FOUR STAR: 511 San Antonio -6.5 8:05 EST
THREE STAR: 510 Memphis -8
REDZONE SPORTS
3*MINN 2*IIC 2*SEA
LENNY STEVENS
10 ROCKETS
Coaches Corner
JazzOver
Irvine
TOP
Jazz
EWash
SPECIAL
Nuggets
Champion
3*Bucks
3*HeatUnder
3*NoILL
2*Wizards
O.C.DOOLEY
3*IllChi
2*Hornets
2*Kings
1*BlazUnder
3 G'SPORTS..
10* CAL IRVINE
Tony Diamond
3*Magic
5*Wolves
CAPTIAN MORGAN SPORTS
3*IIC 2*HOU 2*DEN OV.
O.T.M SPORTS
3*PHILY 2*BOS 2*C.IRV
DR BOB
3 Star Selection
> 04:35 PM Pacific Time
> ***Milwaukee 92 NEW JERSEY 90
> The Nets have no business being favored by 8 points over the Bucks.
> New Jersey is 7-11 and on a 4 game losing streak while the Bucks are
> a decent 9-9 on the season. My overall ratings favor the Nets by just
> 2 points in this game prior to adjusting for the injuries to Bucks’
> Tim Thomas and Toni Kukoc. Kukoc hasn’t played well this year, so his
> loss isn’t worth much, but the loss of Thomas is certainly worth a
> couple of points and the Bucks have played 4 points worse, on
> average, in the 4 games he’s been out. Thomas is not worth 4 points
> (probably more like 2 points), but even if the Bucks play at the
> lower level they’ve played without Thomas, a fair line would still be
> Nets by 6 points. That rating gives the Nets a normal home court
> advantage, which is probably generous considering that they are just
> 2-6 straight up at home this year and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home
> games. The Bucks, meanwhile, have played better on the road this year
> and they are 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or more. While the
> line value is nice, the reason for the play is a negative 22-66-1 ATS
> negative momentum situation that applies to the Nets tonight. That
> same angle applied against Philadelphia last night in my Best Bet win
> on Chicago and the Nets apply to the same 1-21 ATS subset of that
> angle. I’m tempted to make the Bucks a 4-Star, but I’ll resist since
> they’re not quite at full strength (although that is reflected in the
> inflated spread).
3 Star Selection
> 05:05 PM Pacific Time
> ***San Antonio (-9 points or less) 99 ORLANDO 83
> What is with this line? The Magic are 1-16-1 ATS this season and
> their average game rating is 8 ½ points below average. The Spurs,
> meanwhile, have played 11 games with their full squad intact and they
> have played those games 8 ½ points better than average. Home court
> value is about 3 ½ points if the visitor is rested, so the Spurs
> should be favored by 13 ½ points based on that simple analysis. My
> more complicated analysis actually produces a fair line of 11 points
> in this game and my home-road ratings favor the Spurs by 12 points
> (the Spurs have played a bit worse on the road, but Orlando is much
> worse at home, relatively, than they’ve been on the road). The Magic
> are 0-10 ATS in their home games this season, losing those games by
> an average of 9 points (and a median of 8 points). The Spurs are a
> much better than average team, so it’s pretty likely that the Magic
> will lose this home game by more than their average margin. San
> Antonio is also not the type of team to letdown against lesser teams,
> as they are 58-26-2 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or more,
> including 15-5 ATS if they’re coming off a loss. The Spurs have lost
> 4 straight games – two to the Lakers and one without Tim Duncan in
> the lineup – and they’ll be focused tonight, which is all it should
> take to beat the hapless Magic. I’ll lay 9 points or less with San
> Antonio in a Best Bet and I’ll make them a 3-Star at -7 points or
> less.
>
> Downgrade San Antonio to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are a favorite
> of more than 7 points.