At that price I'd rather be the one booking action (+250).
But if you're going to call a pick a "lock", it definitely makes more sense to lay -250 than to take +200.
Rooting for you; a cashed ticket is a cashed ticket, even if New England lucks their way to victory while failing to cover the spread.
But if you're going to call a pick a "lock", it definitely makes more sense to lay -250 than to take +200.
Rooting for you; a cashed ticket is a cashed ticket, even if New England lucks their way to victory while failing to cover the spread.
Luck??
One note, "play of the year" to me is foolish. I won a soccer game the other day. The odds were paying 1.00/ 2.50. I guess that could be a play of the year but I do not call any play a play of the year but that is just me. If you call a play a play of the year and win then more power to you. What happens if the play loses? Is it the misplay of the year? Just my thoughts.
I agree that "it definitely makes more sense to lay -250 than to take +200" but not being a Patriots fan I still strongly disagree about the "luck" thing. New England out works just about everyone for the owner all the own to the players. There is no luck involved. You make your brakes. If a fumble bounces your way it is because you were in the right place at the right time because (most often) you worked your way there.
One note, "play of the year" to me is foolish. I won a soccer game the other day. The odds were paying 1.00/ 2.50. I guess that could be a play of the year but I do not call any play a play of the year but that is just me. If you call a play a play of the year and win then more power to you. What happens if the play loses? Is it the misplay of the year? Just my thoughts.
Steelers are missing 3 or 4 of their WR's/TE's over the course of the year, one at a time, and at this point it will matter (similar to KC missing several of their front 7 and it finally mattered, they wore down). SO Billicheat will take out Antonio Brown. No doubt. Sure, late in the game Brown will get some yards but it will be too late.
NE is built to stop the run so Bell will not make many explosive runs, there will be lots of punts from the Steelers on Sunday.
Coach: NE superior
QB: NE better
OL: Pitt better
RB: Pitt better
WR/TE: NE much better
Front 7: even
DB's: NE better
NE is built to stop the run so Bell will not make many explosive runs, there will be lots of punts from the Steelers on Sunday.
Coach: NE superior
QB: NE better
OL: Pitt better
RB: Pitt better
WR/TE: NE much better
Front 7: even
DB's: NE better
Neither team has faced a top passer the last 8 games or so.
No Rodgers-Ryan-Cousins-Rivers-Brees-Luck-Carr; Steelers gave up 27 to Flacco week 15.
Now they are facing Brady and Ben, arguably the #1 or #2 with Brady, and Ben one of top #5 or #6 at least.
Thoughts on the "over" assuming wind is not a factor?
No Rodgers-Ryan-Cousins-Rivers-Brees-Luck-Carr; Steelers gave up 27 to Flacco week 15.
Now they are facing Brady and Ben, arguably the #1 or #2 with Brady, and Ben one of top #5 or #6 at least.
Thoughts on the "over" assuming wind is not a factor?
Good luck. Makes perfect sense to ML these games getting -250 NE, -200~ ATL or under (if it goes lower) when the book sets spreads of 5, 6. Those are tough numbers when all four of these teams are relatively close. There's a reason that number hovers between 4.5 and 6. I like betting the spread as much as anyone else but I think everything you wrote makes a lot of sense to stay humble and just go money line here for 2.5 to 1 roughly. On ML NE/ATL too. I expect that the public will absolutely hammer the GB money line and which will drive down the price of the ATL ML to something low sub -200. Books have been getting killed lately with all the GB ML cashing by the public. I'm hoping this happens and I can double up my ATL bet with some good odds. I know you posted NE but just some food for thought on the ATL game. With you on this NE Don!
