Big Bookie Sunday (biggest Of Preseason)

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The Ambassador of Bad Ass
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Using the moneyline you would have won the first two and but had to lay $155-160 juice on both of those, then you would have lost the third game against Atlanta laying around that same juice, then you would have won the Buffalo game probably getting a return of around $240 or so. I don't think it would be a good idea to lay 150-160 on the moneyline three games in a row. But if a team doesn't care about pre-season you shouldn't be worried about the spread. I mean, you know they don't care so it shouldn't be close.

so what you are saying is

+1
+1
-1.6 (to be fair to your estimate)
+2

over all +2.4

point proven.. who cares what juice you lay as long as the bet and underlying strategy works.
 

Banned
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but if it is such a no brainer who cares about the ML? You know for a fact that Indianapolis does not care about the pre-season so just lay the points and bet it big. Hard to believe a team that does not care would play well enough to go into overtime on the road.

so what you are saying is

+1
+1
-1.6 (to be fair to your estimate)
+2

over all +2.4

point proven.. who cares what juice you lay as long as the bet and underlying strategy works.
 

The Ambassador of Bad Ass
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1/7 football games are decided by 3 points or less so even in a world where a team doesn't care about the outcome of a preseason game ml is a good idea when you think one side will win and the other side won't play their ass off to get that last minute save.
 

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When you come into someone else's thread and say how stupid the play was or how obvious the other side was then I think most people would take offense to that, especially considering you never mentioned the game before. I think you would take offense if you posted a play before the game and someone came in after the game was over and said wow the other side was so obvious how could you play that side. Busting into others threads is what most people would call rude.


so post game topics are not allowed?
 

New member
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hackhog -
theres a reasonable dungy-era sample that says indianapolis does not care, or euphemistically speaking, 'puts less emphasis' on preseason games. whatever the case, you can make a good argument that its opponent-or-pass until proven otherwise.
 

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Around 80% of NFL games the point spread winner is the team that wins the game. Meaning 8/10 times that the team that covers the spread will win the game, regardless of the point spread. In other words, if you like a 6 point underdog you should bet them on the moneyline. If you like a 6 point favorite you should be them on the point spread. I don't remember the exact numbers but on Monday Night football the last two years this is something like 90%. Not that often do you see a 6 point underdog cover the spread and not win. They usually win. Of course there are times when the point spread does come into play but almost only around 20% of the time in the NFL. Laying 150-200 juice doesn't make sense. A prime example is the super bowl. The giants were huge double digit unerdogs, but they won the game outright. The NFL is about picking the winner then you have your point spread winner.

1/7 football games are decided by 3 points or less so even in a world where a team doesn't care about the outcome of a preseason game ml is a good idea when you think one side will win and the other side won't play their ass off to get that last minute save.
 

The Ambassador of Bad Ass
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Around 80% of NFL games the point spread winner is the team that wins the game. Meaning 8/10 times that the team that covers the spread will win the game, regardless of the point spread. In other words, if you like a 6 point underdog you should bet them on the moneyline. If you like a 6 point favorite you should be them on the point spread. I don't remember the exact numbers but on Monday Night football the last two years this is something like 90%. Not that often do you see a 6 point underdog cover the spread and not win. They usually win. Of course there are times when the point spread does come into play but almost only around 20% of the time in the NFL. Laying 150-200 juice doesn't make sense.

I agree. It doesn't always make sense. But there is no always or never.. The fact is indy just doesn't give a shit in the pre-season.. Results speak louder than ideas and indy straight up had not won a pre-season game since 04' Only two years less than Dungy has been there. Anyway now you know how to play 09 pre-season.. Assuming Dungy is still in indy.
 

The Ambassador of Bad Ass
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hackhog -
theres a reasonable dungy-era sample that says indianapolis does not care, or euphemistically speaking, 'puts less emphasis' on preseason games. whatever the case, you can make a good argument that its opponent-or-pass until proven otherwise.


exactly what I have been saying.. and ml so you don't have to think about the spread.. I also insured with a spread wash wager but I wouldn't do that unless the opponent was getting points.
 

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I know how to play the pre-season and I have been doing well. I think there is a little more to handicapping the NFL pre-season than just betting against Indianapolis. I bet on Buffalo huge against Pittsburgh. In fact, I bet against Indianapolis against Atlanta and guess what, Indianapolis won the game. But that's OK. It doesn't bother me to lose a game because it's not the end of the world. I will win when it's all said and done. I think many people have caught on to the Indianapolis pre-season thing that's probably why they have now covered 3 of their last 5 pre-season games going back to last year. The books are adjusting like they always do.

I agree. It doesn't always make sense. But there is no always or never.. The fact is indy just doesn't give a shit in the pre-season.. Results speak louder than ideas and indy straight up had not won a pre-season game since 04' Only two years less than Dungy has been there. Anyway now you know how to play 09 pre-season.. Assuming Dungy is still in indy.
 

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I think ML underdogs is a good idea but I don't think ML favorites is. With how close the teams in the NFL are, I think you are taking too much of a chance by laying heavy juice. Like I said, most games in the NFL are won by either the favorites winning and covering the spread and underdogs who win the game outright. Not that often do you see a team win and not cover. Long-term you would save your self a lot of vigorish doing this.

exactly what I have been saying.. and ml so you don't have to think about the spread.. I also insured with a spread wash wager but I wouldn't do that unless the opponent was getting points.
 

The Ambassador of Bad Ass
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I know how to play the pre-season and I have been doing well. I think there is a little more to handicapping the NFL pre-season than just betting against Indianapolis. I bet on Buffalo huge against Pittsburgh. In fact, I bet against Indianapolis against Atlanta and guess what, Indianapolis won the game. But that's OK. It doesn't bother me to lose a game because it's not the end of the world. I will win when it's all said and done. I think many people have caught on to the Indianapolis pre-season thing that's probably why they have now covered 3 of their last 5 pre-season games going back to last year. The books are adjusting like they always do.

indeed they do.. but that's why it makes sense to money line against indy within reason and preseason its always going to be within reason to me. Anyway I understand your point.. The forum is for a fading strategy and as I said I respect BB's input and his results and further more I don't think anyone on this forum is a little girl that can't take a little bar room slack or ball busting.. It's part of sports camaraderie. (that includes you) :toast:
 

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Thanks BB i was with ya on the 8-2 run, was with ya on the lost last night. thanks for a great week. anything on tonights game?
 

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Preseason is a different animal all together than regular season. No one wants to get hurt or play as hard as possible. Its almost a coin toss for either team, truley.

Force
 

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just don't care for someone who didn't post a play to come in after the game is long over and say how obvious the play was. I don't think anyone likes that and I'm sure you wouldn't either.

indeed they do.. but that's why it makes sense to money line against indy within reason and preseason its always going to be within reason to me. Anyway I understand your point.. The forum is for a fading strategy and as I said I respect BB's input and his results and further more I don't think anyone on this forum is a little girl that can't take a little bar room slack or ball busting.. It's part of sports camaraderie. (that includes you) :toast:
 

Homie Don't Play That
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Preseason is a different animal all together than regular season. No one wants to get hurt or play as hard as possible. Its almost a coin toss for either team, truley.

Force




The regular season is also a cointoss. Try betting it you'll see
:lol:
 

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