Betting that N.E or Balt WON'T win their divisions

[nomad]

I'm interested to see if anyone thinks this is nuts...

If I want to bet that Balt WILL NOT win the AFC North...I can go to Oly with, say, $300. Bet $100 each on Cleve, Cinci and Pit. I think Pit has the best odds of the 3 at +450. if Balt does not win the division, the worst I could do is collect at +250 (450 - the 2x100 I bet on the other two teams). In effect, Oly is offering Balt at -150 to win and +250 minimum to lose the division. Is there anything wrong with this picture? Similar situation exists with NE in the AFC East...

 

[Woody0]

Originally posted by nomad:
Is there anything wrong with this picture?

Yes, nothing wrong with wanting to bet Baltimore won't win by betting on the other 3 teams but your calculations are misguided.

To simplify lets bet to win $575 or so irrespective which team, other than Baltimore wins.

1. Bet $104.54 @ +450 to win $574.97 on Pittsburg.
2. Bet $95.83 @ +500 to win $574.98 on Cincinnati.
3. Bet $100.00 @ +475 to win $575.00 on Cleveland.

Total stake is $300.37 for a return of $575. This is less than even money and is slightly less than -109.

Your error is taking the absolute win of $275 (as equalised here) and comparing it with only the $100 you staked on the winning team and not the $300 total that was staked.

Hope this helps. GL with the bets. BTW Pinny has better numbers.

 

[REDEYE]

when doing this kind of hedging it helps to have alot of shops to work with.I'm hedging on alot of teams in almost every division in both Baseball and football and win money almost everytime.Plays are spread out everywhere though. Problem is you need to find those shops because some of the better shops pull down the Division bets once season starts,Pinnacle,Skybook,etc