Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Dayton-Arizona, Gonzaga-Kansas, Michigan State-North Carolina and Oregon-Creighton.
Today the Madness continues with eight Second Round matchups. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our
VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a handful of NCAA Tournament games today.
This West Region matchup will be played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Dayton (25-7) is the 7-seed and just upset Nevada 63-60 in the opening round. Meanwhile, Arizona (26-8) is the 2-seed and just crushed Long Beach State 85-65 in the opener. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and expects another Arizona blowout win. However, despite receiving 63% of spread bets we’ve seen Arizona fall from -9.5 to -9. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Dayton, with pros scooping up the points with the unpopular Flyers. Dayton is receiving 37% of spread bets but 45% of spread dollars, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day along with a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split. Dayton has the better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 55%), better three point shooting (40% vs 37%) and better free throw shooting (74% vs 72%). Ken Pom has Arizona winning by six points (79-73), which provides actionable value on Dayton at the current price (+9).
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Gonzaga (26-7) is the 5-seed and just brushed aside McNeese State 86-65 in the opening round. On the other hand, Kansas (23-10) is the 4-seed and just barely squeaked by Samford 93-89. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The line initially rose to Gonzaga -4.5. That’s when pros pounced on Kansas, dropping the Jayhawks down from +4.5 to +4. Several shops are even juicing up Kansas +4 to -115, signaling a possible fall down to +3.5. This Kansas buyback is notable because the public is all over Gonzaga, with 65% of spread bets laying the points with the Zags. Essentially, we are seeing sharp reverse line movement and game day steam on Kansas, with pros buying low on the Jayhawks plus the points. Kansas is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 35% of spread bets. Kansas has the better defensive efficiency (13th vs 42nd). Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by two points (77-75), which provides actionable value on Kansas at the current price (+4).
This West Region matchup will be played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. Michigan State (20-14) is the 9-seed and just crushed Mississippi State 69-51 in the opening round. Similarly, North Carolina (28-7) is the 1-seed and just obliterated Wagner 90-62 in the opener. This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Tar Heels. However, despite receiving a whopping 85% of spread bets we’ve seen North Carolina remain stagnant at -4. Normally, if a team is getting such overwhelming support you would expect to see them rise from -4 to -4.5 or -5. The fact that this line hasn’t budged signals a sharp line freeze on Michigan State, with pros buying low on the Spartans plus the points. Michigan State is the number one contrarian play of the day, receiving only 15% of spread bets. Ken Pom has North Carolina winning by three-points, which provides actionable value on the Spartans at the current price (+4).
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Oregon (24-11) is the 11-seed and just dismissed South Carolina 87-73 in the opening round. On the flip side, Creighton (24-9) is the 3-seed and just brushed aside Akron 77-60 in the opener. This line opened with Creighton listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is all over Creighton laying the relatively short chalk. However, despite receiving 72% of spread bets we’ve seen Creighton fall from -5.5 to -5. This indicates smart money grabbing Oregon plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Ducks. Oregon is only receiving 28% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharping wagers backing Oregon on the spread in a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Oregon has the better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs 26%).
