Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Tennessee-Purdue and NC State-Duke.
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Tennessee (27-8) is the 2-seed and just outlasted Creighton 82-75 in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Purdue (32-4) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Gonzaga 80-68 in the Sweet 16. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Purdue, who is receiving 78% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. This lopsided one-way support has driven Purdue up from -3 to -3.5. However, now that the hook has appeared we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Tennessee +3.5, with some books leaning back down toward +3. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by three points (76-73), which provides some actionable value on Tennessee plus the hook (+3.5). Tennessee is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 28% of spread bets. Tennessee has the better defensive efficiency (3rd vs 19th), better free throw shooting (75% vs 72%) and takes better care of the ball (37th in turnovers vs 131st). Tennessee ranks 73rd at forcing turnovers compared to 342nd for Purdue.
This South Region matchup will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NC State (25-14) is the 11-seed and just upset Marquette 67-58 in the Sweet 16. Similarly, Duke (27-8) is the 4-seed and just upset Houston 54-51 in the Sweet 16. This line opened with Duke listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public says this line is a bit high, with 59% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars taking the points with NC State. However, despite a majority of bets backing NC State we’ve seen this line move further toward Duke (-6.5 to -7). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Duke, with pros fading the trendy dog Wolfpack. Ken Pom has Duke winning by nine points (78-69), which provides actionable value on Duke at the current price. Duke has the better offensive efficiency (7th vs 43rd), better defensive efficiency (14th vs 57th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%) and better three-point shooting (38% vs 35%). NC State is a combined 6-0 ATS as a dog in the ACC and NCAA Tournament. We’ve also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 144 to 143. This drop is notable because 61% of bets are taking the over yet the total fell, indicating some sharp reverse line movement on the under.
