Betting on NFL Pre-Season Over/Unders

[oddjob]

With tonight's Miami-Tampa Bay game game line working it's way down's another tidbit I dug out of the Playbook NFL 'X' database:

NFL pre-season games with a closing (kick-off) line of 'PICK EM have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U since the 2003 season. We'll follow the line movement of this game and perhaps make a wager depending on the kickoff line.

Victor King

 

[Jetplane]

Interesting stuff... I see your RAMS/TENN UNDER is opposite my play--gay. But we'll see if I can come out with a win. Goodluck guys.

 

[oddjob]

The Washington-Buffalo and Carolina-Indianapolis games are not mentioned because it's actually the SECOND game of the year for the Redskins and Colts. That previous system was for when BOTH teams are playing their first NFL 'X' game.

 

[woodypaige]

Wash 36 over (lost)

Indy 35.5 over (winner)

Jack 34 over (winner)

Miami 32 under (winner)

Ten 33 under (lost)

Den 34.5 over (winner)

SD 35.5 over (winner)

Yesterday 5-2
YTD 11-5:toast:

 

[ensign_lee]

Wash 36 over (lost)

Indy 35.5 over (winner)

Jack 34 over (winner)

Miami 32 under (winner)

Ten 33 under (lost)

Den 34.5 over (winner)

SD 35.5 over (winner)

Yesterday 5-2
YTD 11-5:toast:

Wait...the bet on Jacksonville should have been under, right? 31.5 to 34, bet UNDER.

And for the Denver/Houston game, the line closed at 34, so that should have been a bet UNDER as well, right?

That would make your results yesterday 3-4, no?

 

[sdf]

Wait...the bet on Jacksonville should have been under, right? 31.5 to 34, bet UNDER.

And for the Denver/Houston game, the line closed at 34, so that should have been a bet UNDER as well, right?

That would make your results yesterday 3-4, no?

again, depends on WHEN you look. Miami/TB closed at 31 or lower EVERYWHERE and that would make the play an OVER. it went under.

 

[ensign_lee]

again, depends on WHEN you look. Miami/TB closed at 31 or lower EVERYWHERE and that would make the play an OVER. it went under.

I seem to recall Paige saying that he was only taking into account CLOSING lines.

 

[woodypaige]

Wait...the bet on Jacksonville should have been under, right? 31.5 to 34, bet UNDER.

And for the Denver/Houston game, the line closed at 34, so that should have been a bet UNDER as well, right?

That would make your results yesterday 3-4, no?

No, because I'm playing the early lines and not the closing. Oddjob was the one that said to post the closing lines. My lines were posted above on 8-6-08.

 

[ensign_lee]

No, because I'm playing the early lines and not the closing. Oddjob was the one that said to post the closing lines. My lines were posted above on 8-6-08.

But OddJob was the original author, right?

 

[Muddy]

Betting on NFL Pre-Season Over/Unders <HR style="COLOR: rgb(96,96,150)" SIZE=1>
4. Go Under with a low O/U line.. But go Over with a Really low O/U line. When the O/U line is 31'-34 these games have gone 7-20 to the Under in the last 4 seasons (74%) Finally, when the O/U line is 30-31 these games have gone a Perfect 4-0 to the Over!

wrong

31-34 HAS GONE OVER 146-132 SINCE 1993

 

[Muddy]

Betting on NFL Pre-Season Over/Unders <HR style="COLOR: rgb(96,96,150)" SIZE=1>
2. Play a pre-season game Over the Total when the O/U line is 34' to 36 points. 19-5 O/U last 4 seasons (79%) Remember, only play the Over when the home team is favored in this line range.

242-220 SINCE 1993

 

[woodypaige]

But OddJob was the original author, right?

He is not Victor King, the author. He is just a guy that read the book and interpreted the way he thought was right. I also looked at this book and decided to go with the early lines instead of the closing ones.

I asked oddjob to what book to get the lines from and to when to take those lines, but he didn't answer me. That tells me he doesn't know.

I could be wrong in my understanding, but So far by taking the early line, you would be 10-5. And by taking the closing line, you would be 8-7.

I'm sure most people who sets the lines at the sportsbooks have also looked at Mark Lawrence's book, and know that a half point adjustment can change an over to an under.

 

[woodypaige]

wrong

31-34 HAS GONE OVER 146-132 SINCE 1993

It does say the last 4 seasons. Most trends are only good for 5 years tops and then books adjust to get an advantage. If trends weren't adjusted, eventually they even out, or revert the other way.

 

[oddjob]

Here's some numbers I dug out of the Playbook NFL database in regards to tonight's Monday game:

GAME ONE home favs with an OU line of 36 > points are 4-13 O/U since 2004... and 1-7 O/U since 2005.

GAME ONE NFC home favs facing an AFC opponent are 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years

GAME ONE Monday games are 2-5 O/U in last 7 years

PACKERS are 0-7 O/U in their first pre-season game last 7 years
BENGALS are 1-3 O/U in their first pre-season game last 4 years

Victor King

 

[woodypaige]

Here's some numbers I dug out of the Playbook NFL database in regards to tonight's Monday game:

GAME ONE home favs with an OU line of 36 > points are 4-13 O/U since 2004... and 1-7 O/U since 2005.

GAME ONE NFC home favs facing an AFC opponent are 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years

GAME ONE Monday games are 2-5 O/U in last 7 years

PACKERS are 0-7 O/U in their first pre-season game last 7 years
BENGALS are 1-3 O/U in their first pre-season game last 4 years

Victor King

These stats only contradict the system and is nothing more than a different system.
2. Play a pre-season game Over the Total when the O/U line is 34' to 36 points. 19-5 O/U last 4 seasons (79%) Remember, only play the Over when the home team is favored in this line range.

Going with the original system tonight's pick is over 36

The one thing that Mark Lawrence does well is put up a lot of stats, but as I found out following this guy back in the 80's, Your head will spin if you look at every stat. There is always a stat that supports both sides and totals. If you look to far into these stats, you could never decide on who to take. When I use to get all the service report back in the 70's and 80's, all it did was confuse me because there were good reasons and insights for both teams and I learned very quickly that I would still have to make the pick myself, or I would lose lots of money.

Oddjob
You still never answered my earlier question. Are you Victor King? And which book do you use to decide on this system, and why do you think you should take the closing lines.

 

[oddjob]

Hi Woody,

Yes, Oddjob = Victor King.
And yes, the updated record is now 22-6 O/U for ALL pre-season games in the last 4 seasons in the OU line range of 34.5 - 36 points.
But if we just take WEEK ONE results, then the record is indeed 4-13 O/U since 2004 and 1-7 O/U since 2005 when the OU line is 36 > points.

As far as contradictions go, It's really up to the individual. What's more important to you? Do we focus on WEEK ONE only? Or do we want to expand our query to ALL pre-season games? That's why we sometimes get a contradiction.

Our Playbook database has to have some sort of a closing line when we input game results. And that's a point spread and an OU line. We take the closing lines of 10 different online offshore sports books... .and 5 Vegas sports books to come up with an AVERAGE closing line. That's what we use when putting in all game results in our database.

Good luck tonight whichever way you you go. I am personally passing because you can actually make a case for both sides (OVER or UNDER) depending on your criteria. ... and what you deem more pertinent.

 

[woodypaige]

Hi Woody,

Yes, Oddjob = Victor King.
And yes, the updated record is now 22-6 O/U for ALL pre-season games in the last 4 seasons in the OU line range of 34.5 - 36 points.
But if we just take WEEK ONE results, then the record is indeed 4-13 O/U since 2004 and 1-7 O/U since 2005 when the OU line is 36 > points.

As far as contradictions go, It's really up to the individual. What's more important to you? Do we focus on WEEK ONE only? Or do we want to expand our query to ALL pre-season games? That's why we sometimes get a contradiction.

Our Playbook database has to have some sort of a closing line when we input game results. And that's a point spread and an OU line. We take the closing lines of 10 different online offshore sports books... .and 5 Vegas sports books to come up with an AVERAGE closing line. That's what we use when putting in all game results in our database.

Good luck tonight whichever way you you go. I am personally passing because you can actually make a case for both sides (OVER or UNDER) depending on your criteria. ... and what you deem more pertinent.

Thanks Vic!!
I'm sticking with the opening lines because I think if you wait for the closing lines from all the books and take an average, the time it takes to do that, most games are going off and you don't have enough time to get it in.
Also as long as this system is winning by taking the opening lines, I won't change a thing. If it tanks in the second round, I'll get off the system. Until then the system has me over 5 units, not counting tonight.:toast:

 

[woodypaige]

GB 36 over (winner)

ytd 12-5

 

[woodypaige]

WEEK #2 Plays

402 BUFFALO (u33-110)

403 CAROLINA (o35½-110)

406 TENNESSEE (u34-110)

407 WASHINGTON (o35½-110)

410 BALTIMORE (u33½-110)

412 JACKSONVILLE (u33½-110)

413 INDIANAPOLIS (o36-110)

419 ARIZONA (o35-110)

421 GB (o34.5)

425 CHICAGO (o35-110 )

430 TAMPA BAY (u33½-110)

431 CLEVELAND (o35-110)

 

[DukeSnider]

systems aside, if one was to play the over in pre-season wouldn't it make sense to play the first half over assuming the starters would be playing little or none in the second half ?