***Betting Football 2009-2010***

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Some people, were born to win.
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*$1,250* New England Patriots (-3) over New York Jets (-130)

New England narrowly escaped with a victory their last time out against the Bills, so while they picked up the W they left the field with a major gut check. Throw in all the talking the Jets have done, and I expect the Patriots to come out motivated and put forward a much better performance this week against their division rival. Jets surprised many people in week 1 with their dominating performance against the Texans, which sets us up for a good fade here, imo. Bottom line, Sanchez is still a rookie QB and New England's coaching staff is notorious for putting together game plans to disrupt the timing and comfort level of young opposing signal callers. Brady and co will have their hands full against a physical Jets defense, but too many weapons to account for on the NE side. For Jets, this will be a year of transition, and with transition comes the proverbial ups and downs. Good spot to back the Pats here, imo, with what is very generous number. The road team in this series, has gone 17-3-1 ATS, and Pats are 12-2 ATS as a road fav when playing teams in the division. Like the Pats to add to that in this one by coming away with the W. My money will be with Belichick and co in this one.


*$1,250* Detroit Lions (+10.5) over Minnesota Vikings (-110)


Way too many points here for the Viking to cover, imo. Passing game was virtually non existent against the Browns, and had it not been for a 180 rush yd (3TD) performance from Adrian Peterson, Vikings may have had to play it down to the wire. Important to note, they actually found themselves down at the half before AP exploded. Asking any team in the NFL to cover a DD spread, is a tall task, let alone when playing on the road! Lions struggled on the road against New Orleans in week 1, but that was expected as they faced of against one of the leagues best offenses. In their defense they did a good job of staying in the game, after finding themselves in an early 14-0 deficit, keeping up with the Saints in terms of points (27-31) from that point on. Now the Lions return home, where they will have the home crowd behind them and will be working with a number that's full of value. Lions are 10-2 ATS as double digit underdogs and 7-3 against the number after allowing 40+ points. Think public perception factors into their ATS success rate? Vikings on the other hand, are a very sub par 2-7 ATS as division road favs, and 3-8 ATS overall against the division. My money will be the home dog in this one, catching way too many points here.

*$1,250* Baltimore Ravens (+3) over San Diego Chargers (-120)

Major line drop in this one, and with just cause, imo. Majority of games in NFL, are won or lost on the line of scrimmage. San Diego comes into this one with starting Center Nick Hardwick lost to injury, and are coming off a game where their offensive line struggled against a Raiders defense that was not very high on people's list of good D's. They gave up 3 sacks, (stats don't tell the story on the unrelenting pressure they got on Rivers) and mustered up a measly 79 yards on the ground, averaging a sub par 3.3 yds per carry. Many who saw the game know how lucky the Chargers were to pull away with the victory. Now it appears they will be without RB L. Tomlinson as well, which adds to the list of injured starters on offense. Does not bode well for San Diego considering they will facing off against one of the best defenses in the league. Ravens allowed only 29 rushing yards to the Chiefs in week 1, and are 8-2 ATS after holding an opponent to less that 90 yards on the ground in previous game. On the flip side, San Diego's defense looked atrocious against the anemic offense of Oakland, and got slashed for 148 yds on the ground in week 1. Very undisciplined defense was primarily the cause. Facing off against a Baltimore offense that put up nearly 200 rushing yards in week 1 (501 yds overall), spells trouble for San Diego. Chargers also working with the shorter week in this one. Ravens have been covering machines. Dating back to last season they are an impressive 15-2 ATS, and 4-0 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. I expect Baltimore to win this one SU, but will play the points to be safe. BOL, as always :103631605

Adding............



*$750* Cincinnati Bengals (+9) over Green Bay Packers (-110)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Adding 2 team 7 pt teaser........

*$750* Chicago Bears (+9.5), Miami Dolphis (+9.5) (-120)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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*$1,650* Dallas Cowboys (-3) over New York Giants (2H) (-105)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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well, good line you got there. It's -4.5 everywhere

Picked it up at SBG global. It was available at the time of my post. Lines move quick during halftimes. Line opened at 3 moved to 3.5 then to 4, then to 4.5 and back down again to 4 within matter of minutes. Number was still out there when I posted tho. Makes little difference, imo, would have played number with the best juice, even if I had to sacrifice a hook or even a full point as it does not change fact that you pick them straight up. GL if you action here.
 

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The 2.5 for following game is available at Jazz/Sportsbook/SBG...but will not be for long, imo...

*$1,250* Tennessee Titans (+3) over New York Jets (-130)
 

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I was thinking the same when I saw the line. 0-2 Titans is dangerous. Don't forget they were an 13-3 team last year. Their D will bring pressure and bring QB Sanchez back to reality of being a rookie. I think Ten will win SU but grab the pts for safety.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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I was thinking the same when I saw the line. 0-2 Titans is dangerous. Don't forget they were an 13-3 team last year. Their D will bring pressure and bring QB Sanchez back to reality of being a rookie. I think Ten will win SU but grab the pts for safety.

I agree. Titans lost b2b heart breakers, but were in both games till the very end. Could have gone either way. If Jets pulls this one off, I will be convinced they are the real deal. Let down spot for the Jets here, imo, after big win over NE. Writeup to follow later in the week.
 

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That team is for real... lean jets or just run away from that game. Titans are both banged up and have been exposed with their no preasure defence. Houston couldn't score on the jets while then they ran all over the titans in a home opener annd with less days of rest.
 

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Adding another early wager on a line that I feel is off the mark...going to eat the juice on both as I feel number is important..

*$1,250* Houston Texans (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars (-130)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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That team is for real... lean jets or just run away from that game. Titans are both banged up and have been exposed with their no preasure defence. Houston couldn't score on the jets while then they ran all over the titans in a home opener annd with less days of rest.

Jets have played against 2 finesse teams to this point, and matchup with Titans will be an all together different experience for them. Jets have been the more physical team in their first 2 matchups, but that won't be the case against a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start. Titans win this one SU, imo. BOL on your selections this week Crazy :103631605
 

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The 2.5 for following game is available at Jazz/Sportsbook/SBG...but will not be for long, imo...

*$1,250* Tennessee Titans (+3) over New York Jets (-130)

The (2.5) disappeared from Jazz and dropped to 1.5 already...Still available at the other 2 books, but won't be for long, imo...If interested grab while it's hot...

Solid chance I grab a piece of the ML, once it becomes available...will update later in the week..
 

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Below is a chart from twominutewarning, that shows what Stats best translate to wins for any given team. Pardon the format, my computer skills need improving. To clarify: Number to the right of decimal is percentage of correlation between stats and wins. The first number (to the left of / ) is 03 sample. The second number (to the right of / )is 98-03 sample. They are meant to offer insight only. They can help point the way for what stats to look for more often when capping. We have 1 year sample and 6 year sample. Use good judgment when applying.



TOP 10 Correlations between a statistic and team wins

Net Stat 2003Correlation / 1998-2003Correlation

Points per drive .90 / .92
Touchdown % .85 / .88
Pass Overall Effectiveness .81 / .84
Pass Average Yards per Attempt .80 / .79
Yds/Drive .71 / .76
Pass Play Success Rate .68 / .76
Yds/Play .70 / .74
3rd Down Play Success Rate .72 / .73
Pass Big Gain % .75 / .66
2nd Down Play Success Rate .51 / .62



If there is interest, I will try to post some of the stats that history has shown DON'T matter as much, in terms of predicting winners.
 

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Updated ATS results through 1st 2 weeks of season......

Away Teams 20-12-0
Home Teams 12-20-0
Favorites 15-17-0
Dogs 17-15-0
Away Favorites 6-3-0
Away Dogs 14-9-0
Home Favorites 9-14-0
Home Dogs 3-6-0
 

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*$1,000* Detroit Lions (+6.5) over Washington Redskins (-110)

*$250* Detroit Lions (ML) over Washington Redskins (+230)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Be back later this week with writeups.....been very busy getting all my stats/tools together for NFL season...hope all is well with everyone.
 

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*$1,000* Detroit Lions (+6.5) over Washington Redskins (-110)

*$250* Detroit Lions (ML) over Washington Redskins (+230)


:laugh: got to win sometime, right? Worth a risk cuz Redskin offense

is pathetic. GL
 

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*$1,000* Detroit Lions (+6) over Washington Redskins (-110)

*$250* Detroit Lions (SU) over Washington Redskins (+230)

Lions coming off b2b games against arguably the 2 best teams in NFC (Minnesota and New Orleans), and while they are 0-2 ATS they lost both covers pretty late in the game. Both impressive efforts considering the strength of their opponents, imo. Now they hit an oasis against a Redskins team that barely escaped with a home victory against the lowly pathetic Rams, and find themselves playing on the road against a desperate team, with a gimpy Jason Cambell leading the charge, who suffered a foot sprain in his last game. Lions are salivating over this matchup, imo. After this, Lions continue a stretch of difficult early season games, in terms of opponents faced. What better time to pick up a win than now for Detroit? They are desperate for the W and have a big emotional edge over Redskins in this one. They have good chance to pick up the win that's been eluding them for so long, against a bad football team in the Washington Redskins, who nearly lost AT HOME against the worst team in the NFL last week. Going out on a limb and saying this is the game they do it. Playing the points to be safe, and dabbling on the moneyline. GL, as always :103631605
 

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