*$1,250* New England Patriots (-3) over New York Jets (-130)
New England narrowly escaped with a victory their last time out against the Bills, so while they picked up the W they left the field with a major gut check. Throw in all the talking the Jets have done, and I expect the Patriots to come out motivated and put forward a much better performance this week against their division rival. Jets surprised many people in week 1 with their dominating performance against the Texans, which sets us up for a good fade here, imo. Bottom line, Sanchez is still a rookie QB and New England's coaching staff is notorious for putting together game plans to disrupt the timing and comfort level of young opposing signal callers. Brady and co will have their hands full against a physical Jets defense, but too many weapons to account for on the NE side. For Jets, this will be a year of transition, and with transition comes the proverbial ups and downs. Good spot to back the Pats here, imo, with what is very generous number. The road team in this series, has gone 17-3-1 ATS, and Pats are 12-2 ATS as a road fav when playing teams in the division. Like the Pats to add to that in this one by coming away with the W. My money will be with Belichick and co in this one.
*$1,250* Detroit Lions (+10.5) over Minnesota Vikings (-110)
Way too many points here for the Viking to cover, imo. Passing game was virtually non existent against the Browns, and had it not been for a 180 rush yd (3TD) performance from Adrian Peterson, Vikings may have had to play it down to the wire. Important to note, they actually found themselves down at the half before AP exploded. Asking any team in the NFL to cover a DD spread, is a tall task, let alone when playing on the road! Lions struggled on the road against New Orleans in week 1, but that was expected as they faced of against one of the leagues best offenses. In their defense they did a good job of staying in the game, after finding themselves in an early 14-0 deficit, keeping up with the Saints in terms of points (27-31) from that point on. Now the Lions return home, where they will have the home crowd behind them and will be working with a number that's full of value. Lions are 10-2 ATS as double digit underdogs and 7-3 against the number after allowing 40+ points. Think public perception factors into their ATS success rate? Vikings on the other hand, are a very sub par 2-7 ATS as division road favs, and 3-8 ATS overall against the division. My money will be the home dog in this one, catching way too many points here.
*$1,250* Baltimore Ravens (+3) over San Diego Chargers (-120)
Major line drop in this one, and with just cause, imo. Majority of games in NFL, are won or lost on the line of scrimmage. San Diego comes into this one with starting Center Nick Hardwick lost to injury, and are coming off a game where their offensive line struggled against a Raiders defense that was not very high on people's list of good D's. They gave up 3 sacks, (stats don't tell the story on the unrelenting pressure they got on Rivers) and mustered up a measly 79 yards on the ground, averaging a sub par 3.3 yds per carry. Many who saw the game know how lucky the Chargers were to pull away with the victory. Now it appears they will be without RB L. Tomlinson as well, which adds to the list of injured starters on offense. Does not bode well for San Diego considering they will facing off against one of the best defenses in the league. Ravens allowed only 29 rushing yards to the Chiefs in week 1, and are 8-2 ATS after holding an opponent to less that 90 yards on the ground in previous game. On the flip side, San Diego's defense looked atrocious against the anemic offense of Oakland, and got slashed for 148 yds on the ground in week 1. Very undisciplined defense was primarily the cause. Facing off against a Baltimore offense that put up nearly 200 rushing yards in week 1 (501 yds overall), spells trouble for San Diego. Chargers also working with the shorter week in this one. Ravens have been covering machines. Dating back to last season they are an impressive 15-2 ATS, and 4-0 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. I expect Baltimore to win this one SU, but will play the points to be safe. BOL, as always
