betting college hoops during tourney time

[blueedwards]

thought i would just post a few things i have learned over the years for you:

- my personal opinion is that a great way to bet these games is to fade the public. check the offshore posts of slim and others who start threads about who everyone is on...then go the other way. the nice thing here is, usually you will benefit from the line changes to boot. the ncaa tourney is like the nfl...usually, the public takes a beating.

- along the same lines, i like to fade what digger phelps and the other "experts" on espn and cbs say. if they like a team, i usually will go the other way. these guys are usually pretty bad...believe it or not.

- historically, the 10 seeds have a lot of success in the first round. most of the time, they are dogs. if you are feeling particularly gutsy, try them on the money line.

good luck fellas.

 

[Journeyman]

nice write up blue.

 

[Kornholio]

fvck that blue....just look for solid dog plays. This is the newbie forum. If your a newbie...your not looking to fade. Always look dog first...especially NCAA tourney.

 

[blueedwards]

fvck that blue....just look for solid dog plays. This is the newbie forum. If your a newbie...your not looking to fade. Always look dog first...especially NCAA tourney.

why can't a newbie fade? the point is to make a bet that has a strong likelihood of winning. whether its a solid dog play or a fade or even laying double digits...just looking for a good bet at a good number.

 

[edub69]

I'm relatively inexperienced, but I made decent money this year on the NFL by betting the opposite of where the line was moving. Case in point - New England -3 at Pittsburgh in the playoffs was a game where I was unsure who to take, but I was in Vegas and just before kickoff the line had gone to Pitt +3, -130, so I took New England mostly based on the -130 next to Pittsburgh. If you think about it, 60-70% of people in the world are probably "intellectually-challenged", so why should the percentage be much different among gamblers? Fading the public is as good a tactic as any for someone who doesn't have a set strategy.

 

[blueedwards]

I'm relatively inexperienced, but I made decent money this year on the NFL by betting the opposite of where the line was moving. Case in point - New England -3 at Pittsburgh in the playoffs was a game where I was unsure who to take, but I was in Vegas and just before kickoff the line had gone to Pitt +3, -130, so I took New England mostly based on the -130 next to Pittsburgh. If you think about it, 60-70% of people in the world are probably "intellectually-challenged", so why should the percentage be much different among gamblers? Fading the public is as good a tactic as any for someone who doesn't have a set strategy.

welcome edub. i agree with you. at the very least, by employing this method you will get the best of the line move...and that is worth something.

 

[jwunderdog]

Back to what Blue posted. If a line looks to easy, it is!!!! The obvious play in the tourney is usually a blow out in the other direction.

 

[edub69]

Thanks Blue. By the way you were an underrated player throughout your career.

 

[blueedwards]

Thanks Blue. By the way you were an underrated player throughout your career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/edwarbl01.html

 

[lvoldtimer]

Blue...just visited your site..very impressive..do you still play a little ball?

Regards
lvoldtimer

 

[blueedwards]

lv...i am not really blue edwards. i didn't even like him that much when he played. just think the name is cool.

 

[lvoldtimer]

Blue..my bad..i am still laughing and the name is cool..sounds like a player.

Regards
lvoldtimer

 

[stl198287]

Blue,

Having lived in Milwaukee for the first 39 years of my life, I did wonder at times if you were the former Milwaukee Buck. I had kept meaning to ask you that, however, I've been more intent on your handicapping posts.

I enjoy your posts!

 

[xpanda]

I've been fading the public for the duration of March Madness .. so far I'm sitting at just under 70%. Pretty good considering I know diddly about basketball, much less at the college level. My question: would this tactic not be just as effective for every single sport? Why do you favour NFL football and the NCAA tourney for fading the public?

 

[gold64]

If you think you're getting any 'Betting' advice from any Studio Host...




Remember you're taking advice from a man who's real concern is that his tie is straight.

 

[Ego74]

Thanks Blue. By the way you were an underrated player throughout your career.

he's really Jack Sikma in disquise

 

[blueedwards]

he's really Jack Sikma in disquise

 

[WHALE]

???????:sad3:

 

[Ego74]

Sidney Moncreif?? is that better??