Eureka!
Thanks. I am guilty of #1 and #2. I have heard so often that flat-betting in the long run is best, i.e. less volatility and doesn't depend on the cappers ability to rate his plays properly. It kills me to go something like 4-2 and lose money.
Since my way is not working, I will try yours. I have been betting $100 on each pick, cancelling opposing picks and not increasing when picks are duplicated. As I stated in my original post, the latter has not been good.
Gorilla, Thanks for you help also.
Thanks for taking your time to help me. gl
Thanks. I am guilty of #1 and #2. I have heard so often that flat-betting in the long run is best, i.e. less volatility and doesn't depend on the cappers ability to rate his plays properly. It kills me to go something like 4-2 and lose money.
Since my way is not working, I will try yours. I have been betting $100 on each pick, cancelling opposing picks and not increasing when picks are duplicated. As I stated in my original post, the latter has not been good.
Gorilla, Thanks for you help also.
Thanks for taking your time to help me. gl
People who have done the math on it say there is no basis to flat betting - there is no real reason you shouldn't put more money on certain bets. In fact, it's probably the only way you're going to really get on a nice run. Practice sound money management and don't get out of control - but I don't believe in flat betting personally.
unless you are betting large amounts of money it would almost be a waste of time betting flat. for the most part at very best you are going to hit 56% over the long haul. After the juice is taken out and say 3 or 4 plays a day what does that leave you with? Not much other than a lot of uncalled for stress. That's why I think if you have the time to put in the work and find an edge in as many games as you can, and then shop the number, and find the best possible line, volume betting can be beneficial. I also feel it is fine to vary wagers depending on bet strength. For example 2 of my biggest bets of the year have been on Harvard. Why? Because they have had 2 of the better situations all year long. There is no way I would have bet on them the same amount as I did say Wright St last night. I was much more confident that Harvard would cover then Wright St therefore your bet amount should reflect that. A lot of people say I take too many games. I respectfully disagree all the time. During baseball there were days when I had 8 - 10 plays, and in cbb I can have up to 8 - 10 plays on busy days. I have the time, and motivation to put the work in so I feel the more games I can cap thoroughly the more games I can find edges in. I also have a nice portfolio of outs which allow me to line shop and find any off numbers, and the best available number for my games. It is also important to know your strengths and weaknesses. I only wager on cbb and MLB because I believe those are the only sports that can be beaten. Sure I will throw some cash on a cfb, or nfl game from time to time, but that amount is no where near what I wager on cbb or mlb. If I were you and wanted to do this seriously I would come up with a unit value based on your bankroll and go from there. For example if you average bet is $100 and you are betting on a 5 unit scale I would go
1 unit = $50
2 unit =$75
3 unit =$100
4 unit =$125
5 unit = $150
Game of year $200
just my .02
1 unit = $50
2 unit =$75
3 unit =$100
4 unit =$125
5 unit = $150
Game of year $200
just my .02
The reason you are hitting at a lower % than the cappers you are following is instead of following every one of their plays, you are "cherry picking" the ones that you really like and making them more like "square plays". Not saying you are a square player, as I have seen this happen to me as well over the last couple of seasons. Even with Randizzle this past college season, I would play only the plays of his that I liked, and miss on the 2-3 that I thought were risky. Every week I would tell myself only to play his plays, and by Saturday I was playing 3 "cherries" from my own capping w/ a consensus of cappers and not making the $ that Dizz was laying out there for us to grab.
If you are going to follow people until you are confident enough to step out on your own, you have got to ride with them even when you are not comfortable with their picks. With good cappers, more times than not, they will hit on the plays that look questionable. That's what makes them good cappers.
Not knocking you at all. Just trying to explain why this could be happening to you.
If you are going to follow people until you are confident enough to step out on your own, you have got to ride with them even when you are not comfortable with their picks. With good cappers, more times than not, they will hit on the plays that look questionable. That's what makes them good cappers.
Not knocking you at all. Just trying to explain why this could be happening to you.
exactly i usually try to have the ugliest card that nobody agrees with. i love when people come into my thread and saying they don't like this game and this one, and that one. that lets me know i am doing something right because for the most part the people on here are squares. i can tell what kind of night i am going to have by the response i get in my thread. if the forum likes my plays i know i am in trouble, but when they start saying i don't like this and that i say thank you.
Homedawg, mucho thanks. I agree with your volume of games philosophy and will give your 1-5 scale a try. What do you think of my not increasing my $100 per unit until I have doubled my bankroll, and then only by 25%?
P.S. You drift in and out of my "Top 4." Just recently dropped out. I feel you will return soon. gl
P.S. You drift in and out of my "Top 4." Just recently dropped out. I feel you will return soon. gl
^not so sure you should have cappers makign and falling out of your top 4 either...no capper is perfect and if you're constantly jumping ship to the new flavor of the day you're going to miss some nice runs and probably see yourself catching a few cold streaks as previously hot cappers regress to the mean a bit.
it's really tough - and particularly tough for me because since Dec 29 when I won an 8 play parlay (well, 2 of those picks pushed), I haven't had any day with a substantial positive.
I do have favorite cappers. I was kinda liking Iowa last night, but that was because I didn't really know much about Minnesota. Then I see 3 other cappers here pick the Hawkeyes, and then a website I sometimes tail (Wildcat) picks them, so I think it's a decent play. And bet on it.
Seconds before the game starts, ANOTHER highly respected capper, CarolinaKid, says Minnesota is the play. What do I do? CK usually posts his picks minutes before they start, which makes him a challenge to follow. And an under pick NC Westburo he picked bombed. Soooo....I decide to stand on the Hawkeyes. But if I had known that Ck was going to go Minnesota, before I had bet, I would have stayed off the play entirely.
Another point - I do worry that some cappers here might tail each other, and post their picks just because another capper is hyping it. That does scare me because I am shopping for concensus, based on independent views.
Anyway, the bottom line is that you should do your own homework, think about who YOU think should win, then look for the cappers who support or reject your perspective. I liked Florida to win yesterday, but then I like the Florida team. I have a handle on the stats, but think that Florida has the edge. Before I bet, I got on here, and read up on what people were saying about both teams. Nothing was really said to push me off of Florida, so I bet them. It had a nice result.
I do have favorite cappers. I was kinda liking Iowa last night, but that was because I didn't really know much about Minnesota. Then I see 3 other cappers here pick the Hawkeyes, and then a website I sometimes tail (Wildcat) picks them, so I think it's a decent play. And bet on it.
Seconds before the game starts, ANOTHER highly respected capper, CarolinaKid, says Minnesota is the play. What do I do? CK usually posts his picks minutes before they start, which makes him a challenge to follow. And an under pick NC Westburo he picked bombed. Soooo....I decide to stand on the Hawkeyes. But if I had known that Ck was going to go Minnesota, before I had bet, I would have stayed off the play entirely.
Another point - I do worry that some cappers here might tail each other, and post their picks just because another capper is hyping it. That does scare me because I am shopping for concensus, based on independent views.
Anyway, the bottom line is that you should do your own homework, think about who YOU think should win, then look for the cappers who support or reject your perspective. I liked Florida to win yesterday, but then I like the Florida team. I have a handle on the stats, but think that Florida has the edge. Before I bet, I got on here, and read up on what people were saying about both teams. Nothing was really said to push me off of Florida, so I bet them. It had a nice result.
Good topic for me b/c I have the same issue, seem to be loosing my ass following good cappers. In my case, I play all their plays, even questionable ones, but all fucking 5 of them had a shitty early mid december. Boom, bye bye bankroll. I'm thinking of just going to 1 capper. 1. Easy, clean, less stress.
