YTD Totals
+ 3.00 units (Cup Match-Ups)
+ 9.40 units (N'wide Match-Ups)
-11.29 units (Props/Outrights)
Total: +1.11 units
Back in the green after yesterday, now if I can only stay there. More plays than normal today, 5 dimes really had a lot on the board this week.
Tires could be an issue today but I hope it doesn't have a negative effect on the race.
Match-Ups
3.00 units Clint Bowyer (-120) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Hope last week was an aberration for Bowyer, never was a factor all night and struggled to a 25th place finish ending a streak of 8 straight Top 15's(7 of those were Top 10's).
This week he once again qualified poorly(26th) but was ok in practice. In the previously mentioned streak he qualified in the back half of the field most of the time, so not too concerned with that.
Just think a Top 12 or better is his today.
Busch has only finished better than 12th once since Daytona.
3.00 units Jeff Burton (-135) over Kevin Harvick (@thegreek)
Burton has not finished lower than 13th all year, has not finished outside the Top 12 @Dover in 6 races while Harvick's record here is not that good, only one finish better than 19th in 7 races. Both start near the back but Burton was better in practice. If Burton can keep his nose clean he should beat his teammate.
2.00 units Jeff Burton (+120) over Ryan Newman (@5dimes)
This was just too good to pass up.
2.00 units Mark Martin (-135) over David Ragan (@5dimes)
2.00 units Mark Martin (-115) over Kasey Kahne (@sportsbook)
Can't remember the last time Martin didn't do well here. In the last 8 starts he has 1 win, 5 Top 5's and 7 Top 10's, his other finish was 14th.
He has 4 Top 10's in 7 starts this year and only one finish worse than 16th.
Kahne is hot and Ragan is vastly improved but this hasn't been a great track for either driver and their practice numbers are so-so.
Don't like Martin's starting position but he's a heads-up veteran and should be around at the end.
2.00 units Travis Kvapil (-170) over Paul Menard (@5dimes)
Ugly price but if Kvapil finishes this race he will beat Menard.
2.00 units Greg Biffle (-115) over Jeff Gordon (@sportsbook)
Like I said yesterday this is Biffle's best track(along with Darlington) and he will be a factor.
1.00 unit Carl Edwards (+125) over Kyle Busch (@thegreek)
Can't turn down Edwards in an underdog role on this track. 1st, 2nd and 3rd last three races. But I'm not going heavy against Busch either.
1.00 unit David Reutimann (+115) over Reed Sorenson (@5dimes)
Sorenson shouldn't be favored over anyone other than the independent teams. Will take my chances against a team that has finished 31st or worse 7 times in 12 races vs. a team coming off their best finish of the year (10th).
Props
2.00 units Mark Martin (-115) to finish better than 14.5 (sportsbook)
You have to go back to 2003 since Martin finished below that number
2.00 units Tony Stewart (-110) to finish worse than 6.5 (5dimes)
Has not finished this high at Dover since 2004
Good luck everybody.
+ 3.00 units (Cup Match-Ups)
+ 9.40 units (N'wide Match-Ups)
-11.29 units (Props/Outrights)
Total: +1.11 units
Back in the green after yesterday, now if I can only stay there. More plays than normal today, 5 dimes really had a lot on the board this week.
Tires could be an issue today but I hope it doesn't have a negative effect on the race.
Match-Ups
3.00 units Clint Bowyer (-120) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Hope last week was an aberration for Bowyer, never was a factor all night and struggled to a 25th place finish ending a streak of 8 straight Top 15's(7 of those were Top 10's).
This week he once again qualified poorly(26th) but was ok in practice. In the previously mentioned streak he qualified in the back half of the field most of the time, so not too concerned with that.
Just think a Top 12 or better is his today.
Busch has only finished better than 12th once since Daytona.
3.00 units Jeff Burton (-135) over Kevin Harvick (@thegreek)
Burton has not finished lower than 13th all year, has not finished outside the Top 12 @Dover in 6 races while Harvick's record here is not that good, only one finish better than 19th in 7 races. Both start near the back but Burton was better in practice. If Burton can keep his nose clean he should beat his teammate.
2.00 units Jeff Burton (+120) over Ryan Newman (@5dimes)
This was just too good to pass up.
2.00 units Mark Martin (-135) over David Ragan (@5dimes)
2.00 units Mark Martin (-115) over Kasey Kahne (@sportsbook)
Can't remember the last time Martin didn't do well here. In the last 8 starts he has 1 win, 5 Top 5's and 7 Top 10's, his other finish was 14th.
He has 4 Top 10's in 7 starts this year and only one finish worse than 16th.
Kahne is hot and Ragan is vastly improved but this hasn't been a great track for either driver and their practice numbers are so-so.
Don't like Martin's starting position but he's a heads-up veteran and should be around at the end.
2.00 units Travis Kvapil (-170) over Paul Menard (@5dimes)
Ugly price but if Kvapil finishes this race he will beat Menard.
2.00 units Greg Biffle (-115) over Jeff Gordon (@sportsbook)
Like I said yesterday this is Biffle's best track(along with Darlington) and he will be a factor.
1.00 unit Carl Edwards (+125) over Kyle Busch (@thegreek)
Can't turn down Edwards in an underdog role on this track. 1st, 2nd and 3rd last three races. But I'm not going heavy against Busch either.
1.00 unit David Reutimann (+115) over Reed Sorenson (@5dimes)
Sorenson shouldn't be favored over anyone other than the independent teams. Will take my chances against a team that has finished 31st or worse 7 times in 12 races vs. a team coming off their best finish of the year (10th).
Props
2.00 units Mark Martin (-115) to finish better than 14.5 (sportsbook)
You have to go back to 2003 since Martin finished below that number
2.00 units Tony Stewart (-110) to finish worse than 6.5 (5dimes)
Has not finished this high at Dover since 2004
Good luck everybody.
