Best Bets: UEFA Champions League round of 16 preview
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The second half of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 gets underway this week, with the first legs in the four remaining matchups.
Last week's four games didn't teach us much about how the elimination of the away goals tiebreaker might affect first legs. Real Madrid seemed to be extra-conservative, perhaps playing for the scoreless draw at PSG in order to need only a home win to advance. But Manchester City and Bayern Munich attacked freely with mixed results, and Liverpool eventually broke through Inter Milan's tough defense with two late goals.
Let's get to the rest of the first legs...
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tuesday, February 22
Chelsea v. Lille
Chelsea's defense isn't what it was last season, when the Blues rode their stinginess to the Champions League title. However, Chelsea has still allowed only 18 goals and 23.8 expected goals this Premier League season, both second-fewest in the league, and Chelsea allowed only one goal in the first five UCL group games before conceding three in the meaningless group finale at Zenit.
The bigger issue for Chelsea is the offense, which has scored more than two goals once in the last 12 games, and that was six weeks ago in an FA Cup win over non-league Chesterfield. In league play, Chelsea has topped 1.2 expected goals once in the last six games, and hasn't had more than 15 shots in a game since before Christmas.
Romelu Lukaku is not clicking up top, and he's coming off perhaps the worst game of his career. His seven touches in Sunday's win over Crystal Palace were the fewest by any player who went 90 minutes in a Premier League game since Stats Perform began tracking touches in 2003. In his 12 league starts this season, Chelsea is averaging 12 shots and 1.3 expected goals, compared to 17 shots and 2.0 expected goals when he does not start. Lukaku will still likely start Tuesday, particularly with Mason Mount injured.
Reigning Ligue 1 champion Lille is in 11th place two-thirds of the way through the season, due in part to what looks like bad defensive luck. Lille has been outscored 35-32 in league play, despite 38.5 expected goals to 28.1 for its opponents. Over half of Lille's league games (15 of 25) have had fewer than three goals, and I like getting plus-money on what should be a tight first leg.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+120)
Villarreal vs. Juventus
Villarreal sits sixth in La Liga but ranks fourth in both goal difference and expected goal difference, and Unai Emery's Europa League champions are in decent form after winning three of their last four La Liga games, plus a scoreless draw with Real Madrid.
Following a horrific start to the season, Juventus has climbed back to fourth in Serie A by going unbeaten in 12 straight league games (seven wins). However, Juve is winless in seven games (two losses, five draws) this season versus top-five Serie A teams, with a minus-1.6 expected goal difference and 47% possession across those matches.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, and Juventus has the more serious concerns with striker Paulo Dybala likely out, plus defenders Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci and Daniele Rugani all expected to miss the game.
Those injuries set the stage for Villarreal to press Juve effectively, leaving Juventus primed to struggle in this match and to go out in the round of 16 for the third straight season.
Pick: Villarreal to win first leg (+150), Villarreal to advance (+140)
Wednesday, February 23
Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United
Each of these teams survived the group stage despite accumulating fewer shots and expected goals than its opponents.
Each of these teams is struggling more than anticipated domestically, with defending champion Atletico sitting fifth in La Liga, and Manchester United in fourth place but battling several clubs for England's final Champions League spot.
United has gotten decent results under interim manager Ralf Rangnick, with one loss from a dozen league games. But only two of those matches have been against teams currently in the top eight, with United losing at home to Wolves and beating West Ham. Atletico should be a tougher challenge than any Rangnick has faced thus far with United.
At first glance, Atletico's defense seems to be far worse than last season, having conceded 34 goals in 25 league games, after allowing 25 goals all of last La Liga season. However, Atletico this season is conceding fewer shots and expected goals per game than last season, allowing those 34 league goals on 22.8 expected goals.
For whatever reason, Jan Oblak has not been even average this season, giving up 8.6 goals more than expected, based on the shots on target he's faced. This is on the heels of preventing a league-best 11.6 goals last season. All that to say: Atletico seems to be getting unlucky defensively this season, and their underlying numbers aren't that far off.
FiveThirtyEight has Atletico as a 54% favorite to advance, so getting plus-money looks like a steal. I'm taking Atletico to advance in the series and to win the first leg, though given the roller-coaster nature of both teams, this matchup has the widest range of possible outcomes.
Picks: Atletico to win first leg (+135), Atletico to advance (+120)
Benfica vs. Ajax
Ajax has the best title shot of any team outside the top five leagues, though the current 16-1 price doesn't offer much value. The current Eredivisie leader was second in the UCL group stage with 20 goals and third with 15.4 expected goals, scoring at least twice in each group game.
Before this weekend's 1-0 win at Willem II, Ajax had scored twice in seven straight league games, and Ajax wasn't struggling to generate offense Saturday, outshooting Willem II 31-6. Striker Sebastien Haller is in fine form, with 28 goals in 28 games across all competitions this season, marginally exceeding his 26.9 expected goals.
Benfica was outscored 9-7 in the group stage and conceded 12.4 expected goals to 7.0 of its own. On the semi-bright side, all nine goals and 8.1 of the expected goals were in two games against Bayern Munich. More ominously, Ajax may press as much as Bayern does. Ajax starts its average possession 45 yards from its own goal, the closest to midfield of any Dutch team this season, and two yards closer to midfield than Bayern does.
Benfica's domestic numbers aren't all that different from those of Sporting, and Ajax scored nine goals across two group meetings with Sporting last year. I expect more of the same here, and I like the over for both the game and Ajax.
Picks: Over 2.5 goals (-140), Ajax over 1.5 goals (-120
