Best bets on Week 4 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
9/30/17
It's Week 4 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Miami Dolphins (London)
Total: 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Saints had a pair of tough tests to open the season with losses at Minnesota and against New England at home. They rebounded nicely last week, as the defense, which yielded 512 yards per game the first two games, held Cam Newton and the Panthers to 288 yards. Drew Brees is hitting 69 percent of his passes with a 6-0 TD-to-INT ratio, and Jay Cutler has a 2-1 ratio. Miami's defense is allowing just 352 yards per game. Miami has yet to play at home and now travels to London. I like New Orleans here, as the Saints have taken on three playoff-caliber teams and are better statistically than the Dolphins.
ATS pick: New Orleans
Erin Rynning's take: Expect a much stronger performance from the Dolphins after their debacle against the Jets last week. This team did respond to no-nonsense head coach Adam Gase after a slow start a season ago. Their offense will take a massive step forward this week after playing their first two weeks against the underrated stop-units of the Chargers and the Jets. This is still a porous Saints defense that lacks overall talent.
ATS pick: Miami and lean over
Warren Sharp's take: Through two weeks, Miami's defense has been abysmal. They are allowing 58 percent of passes to be successful, the second-worst rate in the NFL. The big problem for the Dolphins will be the fact that they've started the season against two teams that can't run the ball very well (Chargers and Jets) and now face the 13th-rated rushing attack and third-rated passing attack of the Saints. While I certainly don't believe the Saints' defense will be as strong as it appeared last week in Carolina, the Dolphins' offense currently ranks 32nd in red zone efficiency and 32nd in third-down efficiency -- not what you hope to bring to the field when you are trying to trade points with Brees.
Pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: While the Falcons appear to have avoided the early Super Bowl hangover at 3-0, they could be sitting at just 1-2 after narrow escapes in Chicago and Detroit. The matchup I like best here is the Falcons' high-flying pass attack against a rebuilt Bills secondary that has not been tested. The Bills have taken on Josh McCown, a not-100 percent Cam Newton and Trevor Siemian. In their last road game, they had a 12-1 first-down disadvantage in the first half at Carolina. I have a slight lean with Atlanta.
ATS pick: Lean Atlanta
Warren Sharp's take: While I want to believe that the Bills are deserving of a 2-1 record and can rely on their run game to go toe-to-toe in Atlanta, I have to look at the reality of their schedule, which has featured games against the bad offenses of the Jets (24th) and Panthers (25th). They were impressive at home against the Broncos, but in my circles, that wasn't very surprising given the situation. They have yet to face a truly dynamic offense like that of the Falcons.
Despite being minus-3 in turnover margin and minus-1 in return touchdown margin, Atlanta thoroughly dominated the Lions statistically last week. Since 2011, teams with those metrics have lost 124 out of 127 games, but Atlanta became just the fourth winner, thanks to a total domination which wasn't recognized on the scoreboard. The prior week, they dominated the Packers at home, as well. It's hard to believe that a defensive-oriented team like the Bills -- a team that wants to run the ball but relies on its leading rusher to double as its leading receiver and is without any significant wide receiver talent -- will be able to defeat Atlanta. That said, I still lean with the Bills to keep it close.
ATS pick: Lean Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Cincinnati
Phil Steele's take: The Browns and Bengals square off this weekend in a battle of winless teams. The hometown Browns are plus-2 yards per game this year, while the Bengals are minus-20 yards per game. I still side with the Bengals here, however, as their defense is allowing just 293 yards per game and were holding Green Bay to just 203 yards with four minutes to go last week. After scoring just nine points their first two games, new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor had the Bengals headed in a more positive direction last week against the Packers by reaching the end zone on two occasions. Cleveland trailed a poor Colts team in Week 3 by scores of 28-7 and 31-14 as a road favorite. While veteran Andy Dalton is struggling with a 2-4 TD-to-INT ratio this year, rookie DeShone Kizer has had some first-year jitters with just a 3-7 ratio. I originally had the Bengals as a playoff contender, and they are very capable of grabbing the road victory here.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Warren Sharp's take: The Bengals got off to a tremendous start against a difficult opponent (Green Bay) on the road last week under a new offensive coordinator. They finally get to test themselves against a defense unable to attack their weakness, the offensive line. Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and all of the Bengals' prior opponents rank extremely high in sack rate, including Green Bay (3), Houston (12) and Baltimore (14). More time for Andy Dalton to throw means more opportunities to hit those big, explosive plays that might be right around the corner this week. The Browns will need to get better production out of Kizer, as his passer rating and overall efficiency are among the worst in the NFL.
ATS pick: Lean Cincinnati
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: This is not the 2016 Rams team, as quarterback Jared Goff (63 quarterback rating last season, 118 quarterback rating thus far in 2017) and running back Todd Gurley are improved, and they have a receiving corps led by Sammy Watkins. Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense that he parted ways with in Denver, beat up Dallas in Week 2, but the Broncos are further advanced in that scheme. The Rams are allowing foes 43 yards above their season average. Dallas is on a short week after playing Monday, and the Rams have gone from 14 points per game on offense to 35.7 PPG. This is a step up in competition for the Rams, however, as they beat a "Luck-less" Indianapolis team and San Francisco, but lost at home to Washington by seven. The Redskins ran for 229 yards in that game and Ezekiel Elliott had his best game of this young 2017 season Monday night against Arizona.
ATS pick: Dallas
Warren Sharp's take: I knew heading into the season that the Cowboys' offense should start slowly due to its schedule of top defenses (Arizona, Denver and Giants). Sure enough, the Cowboys rank 10th in run success rate (46 percent) and 19th in pass success rate (44 percent); last year, they were first in run success rate (56 percent) and third in pass success rate (51 percent). But this is their get-well spot. The Rams' defense is not as strong as their year-to-date numbers suggest, thanks to playing Scott Tolzien in his only 2017 start and the 49ers' inept offense. Dallas should be able to run, which will open the pass even more. I liked the Rams getting at or above seven points, but will only lean that direction below seven.
ATS pick: Lean Los Angeles
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: The Lions are one replay review and a few inches away from being 3-0 and continuing last year's modus operandi of fourth-quarter comebacks despite being outgained. Minnesota is plus-60 yards per game, and the Vikings have shown a lot of improvement on offense. They have gone from 75 rushing yards per game (3.2 per carry) to 115 (4.0), while Sam Bradford threw for 341 yards versus the Saints and Case Keenum for 369 yards versus Tampa Bay. I will pass on this one, as I'm not as confident in Keenum getting it done for a second straight week.
Pick: Pass
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9)
Total: 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: New England has played the tougher schedule and beat its weakest opponent (New Orleans) 36-20 on the road. The Panthers' toughest foe so far is that same Saints squad that they lost to by 21 at home. Cam Newton is throwing for just 168 yards per game with a 2-4 TD-to-INT ratio and doesn't look 100 percent healthy. Tom Brady is throwing for 340 yards per game with an 8-0 ratio. It is the resistible force versus the movable object, as the Panthers average just 15 points per game. New England is actually No. 32 on defense this year, allowing 461 yards per game and 32 points per game. I have no real interest in this game, as you continue to pay an inflated price (-9) to back the Patriots.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: We have very little confidence in what we'll see on one side of the ball in this one, which is the Panthers' offense against the Patriots' defense. The Panthers' offense ranks 25th in efficiency, while the Patriots' defense ranks 32nd in efficiency. Last week, the Patriots kept Watson in the pocket and allowed him to throw all over, so it will be interesting to see if the Patriots replicate that game plan against Newton this week. Newton clearly is still not healthy, is without his top primary receiver (Greg Olsen) and might be without Kelvin Benjamin. Meanwhile, the Panthers' defense (ranked sixth overall) faced only the 49ers and Bills before getting torched by the Saints. It's hard to forecast what the Panthers can do offensively, but I don't know that their defense is up to the task of slowing down the Patriots.
Pick: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at New York Jets
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars have two key things going against them here, as they are an away favorite for the first time since 2011 and play for the first time without the benefit of a bye after returning from London. I believe, though, that they have enough of a talent edge to overcome those obstacles. The Jets' pedestrian offense is averaging 89 yards below what their opponents normally allow, and the Jaguars' defense is allowing just 260 yards per game. The Jacksonville defense is holding foes to 83 yards per game below their season average, and the Jets are averaging just 274 yards per game. With the Jets struggling to top 200 yards on offense and the Jaguars already having beaten Houston on the road by 22, I like Jack
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: Josh McCown will be in for a rude awakening against this Jaguars defense. He was sacked twice last week against a Dolphins defense that ranks as the NFL's worst against the pass and fifth worst in pass protection. But on Sunday, he will face a Jaguars defense that ranks No. 1 against the pass and No. 1 in pass rush. McCown will have much less time to throw and much more difficulty when attempting to pass. Therefore, it will be imperative that the Jets run the ball early and often in order to avoid that pass rush. And while the Jaguars rank No. 1 in pass defense, they rank dead last in run defense.
Pick: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Pittsburgh
Phil Steele's take: Although both teams enter play at 2-1, the Steelers are outgaining foes by 43 yards per game, while Baltimore is being outgained by 75 yards per game after its embarrassing loss to Jacksonville in London. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 division games. With Le'Veon Bell still not back to form, the Steelers are averaging just 302 yards per game on offense and 38 yards below what their opponents normally allow. I feel the Steelers are the stronger team, but it remains to be seen how home 'dog Baltimore will return to action following last week's debacle in London. My best lean on this game is probably on the under 42.5, especially with the Steelers ranked No. 1 in the NFL, holding their opponents to 125 yards below their season average.
ATS pick: Lean on the under 42.5
Warren Sharp's take: While both of these teams enter at 2-1, they are both far from the same teams that we remember in the past. The Steelers beat the Browns and the Vikings, who were starting a backup in his first game this year, while losing to the Bears. The Ravens beat those same Browns and the Bengals (with their now-fired offensive coordinator), while losing to the Jaguars. The problem for both teams is while they still have their star quarterbacks, neither is playing like one. The Ravens currently are averaging a NFL-worst ranking in yards per attempt, while the Steelers still have yet to find chemistry with either their run or pass games. There is nothing to indicate this game should be anything other than one decided by a close margin.
ATS pick: Lean on the under 42.5
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Houston Texans
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: I thought Deshaun Watson to Houston was a great move on draft day, as he's a winner with all the physical tools that mix well with a top-notch Texans defense. Watson has improved each week and nearly became the first rookie quarterback to beat Bill Belichick in Foxborough. Tennessee showed a powerful rush attack last week that wore down the mighty Seahawks defense in sweltering conditions, accumulating 195 yards on the ground on 5.6 yards per carry. The Titans' offense is averaging 95 yards above what opponents normally allow, and the Texans are 64 yards below in that category. Houston's defense is holding foes to 38 yards below their season average, and Tennessee is allowing 73 above. In a key battle in the AFC South, I will side with the defensive home 'dog.
ATS pick: Houston
Warren Sharp's take: I'll take Watson's performance in New England with a grain of salt. The Patriots employed a mush-rush strategy on defense to keep Watson somewhat contained in the pocket while allowing him to test his accuracy downfield. As a result, Watson didn't break a single explosive run, although he did have 5.1 yards per carry. Naturally, his passing output was stronger simply because the Patriots were not attempting to pressure Watson much in the pocket. This game boils down to offensive line protection. The Texans' offense ranks 32nd, while the Titans' offense ranks first. I believe the Titans will have more difficulty running the ball than they've had in prior weeks, but if Marcus Mariota has more time to throw, that could be the deciding factor.
Pick: Pass
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent San Francisco
Phil Steele's take: Arizona is now 0-3 against the spread and not living up to my preseason expectations. Carson Palmer has just a 4-4 TD-to-INT ratio, and the Cardinals are without their top offensive weapon David Johnson, who had more than 2,000 yards of total offense last season. The Cardinals had an excellent defense last season but let some key players go in the offseason. They have gone from holding foes to 42 yards per game below their season average to allowing 2 yards above. Arizona is on a short week after playing Monday, while San Francisco is well-rested after playing last Thursday. With the 49ers' offense showing some promise in their previous game against the Rams and the Cardinals having covered just three of their past 14 games, I'll lean with the 'dog in this one.
ATS pick: Lean San Francisco
Warren Sharp's take: Can the Cardinals protect Palmer? If they can provide adequate protection, Palmer, who is playing better than metrics indicate, and the Cardinals likely cover this spread. If they do not, I think there is enough potential for the 49ers with extra time to mount enough of a balanced attack to keep this game extremely close. The Cardinals do not have a run game to rely on, and they really could use one given Palmer's age and the lack of consistent pass protection from his line.
ATS pick: Lean San Francisco
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: Philadelphia got the win over the Giants last week, but the Eagles let me down, as they could not hold on to a 14-0 fourth quarter lead and won by only three (not covering the spread). The Chargers trailed both Denver and Kansas City for most of those games but probably should have beaten Miami at home. The Eagles' opening win at Washington by 13, with a 92-yard edge, looks even better after last week. Los Angeles has very little home edge, plus I feel the Eagles are the stronger team.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp's take: A quick look at the analytics-based box score at Sharp Football Stats shows that the Eagles were exceedingly lucky to walk away with a victory last week. The Giants made five red zone trips, but turned the ball over on downs twice. Because the Eagles could run the ball, they controlled the time of possession, but they were almost 2 yards per play worse than the Giants and posted a 38 percent success rate on passes, compared to a 60 percent rate from the Giants.
I view the Chargers as an AFC version of the Giants. Neither team can run the ball offensively (though the Chargers are less likely to abandon it early in games), both teams have solid defenses (at this point the Chargers is slightly superior) and both have erratic quarterbacks. I believe the Chargers should succeed in many of the same ways that the Giants did last week, but with a slightly more dangerous passing offense and a slightly better defense, I think the time of possession will be more balanced, and the Chargers will emerge victorious.
ATS pick: Los Angeles
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Like I said last week, when I throw the Giants in the trash, they start to play. They trailed the Eagles 14-0 in the fourth quarter, but Odell Beckham Jr. started catching touchdown passes, and the Giants even had the lead before eventually losing on a 61-yard field goal at the end. Eli Manning had averaged just 204 passing yards coming into the Philadelphia game before going 35-for-47 for 366 yards with perhaps the best receiving corps in the NFL back intact. The Giants' defense held its past two foes to season lows. Tampa Bay has a banged-up defense that is allowing foes 74 yards above their season average. The Buccaneers are also being outgained by 76 yards per game. Last week, a lot of desperate 0-2 teams got solid wins, and the Giants are now a desperate 0-3 team. I like New York here.
ATS pick: New York
Erin Rynning's take: The Giants' offense finally woke up last week in the second half against Philadelphia. It has been a potpourri of issues for the lack of Giants scoring, including health, red zone deficiencies and penalties to name a few. However, with the returning health of Beckham, this Giants offense can turn the corner to health as well. Of course, this banged-up Buccaneers defense made Case Keenum look like an All-Pro last week, while the Bucs' weaponry on offense will prove dangerous week in and week out.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: The key matchup in this game is the Giants' offensive line against the Buccaneers' defensive line. We know how badly the Giants looked to start the season when they were missing Beckham Jr. in the lineup. This team couldn't move the ball against a bad Cowboys defense and a mediocre Lions defense, but the Buccaneers' defense ranks dead last in pass rush efficiency. And with the Giants operating in a much more up-tempo, quick/short pass offense, the pass rush of the Bucs might be substantially neutralized. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers' offense has been far too pass heavy, and while the Giants' defense has not looked like the 2016 version, they still have a dangerous pass rush. Their weakness has been defending the run.
ATS pick: New York
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Denver
Phil Steele's take: This is a pretty substantial AFC West showdown, as Oakland and Denver need a victory here to keep pace with the front-running Chiefs. Both squads come in following outright defeats as road favorites, with the Raiders being embarrassed against the Redskins and the Broncos coming up short in Buffalo. Denver has clearly owned the recent series history with wins in eight of the past 10, while the favorite has cashed in eight of the past nine matchups. With the Broncos able to go all out with their bye week on deck, I'll give them a slight lean here.
ATS pick: Lean Denver
Erin Rynning's take: Obviously, both teams are coming off discouraging performances, having lost as favorites on the road last week. However, this well-rounded Broncos team will bounce back. Their loss at the Bills was somewhat fluky, as they controlled much of the game, while the Raiders were thoroughly dominated by the Redskins. No question, the Broncos own the much better defensive club in this matchup. In addition, their offense has surprisingly shown strong balance under former coordinator Mike McCoy.
ATS pick: Denver and under
Warren Sharp's take: Last week's results were a bit of an aberration. I do not believe the Raiders' offensive line was as poor as they appeared, nor do I believe the Redskins' defense was as great as it appeared. Simply put, it was just one of those spots in which nothing was going right early in the game, and it just snowballed. That said, apart from a Week 9 game in 2016, the Broncos' defense has Derek Carr's number. This Broncos defense certainly looks like it has solved its run defense issues, ranking first in the NFL despite facing good offensive lines and run games from Dallas and Buffalo in the past two weeks.
ATS pick: Lean Denver
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
9/30/17
It's Week 4 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Miami Dolphins (London)
Total: 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Saints had a pair of tough tests to open the season with losses at Minnesota and against New England at home. They rebounded nicely last week, as the defense, which yielded 512 yards per game the first two games, held Cam Newton and the Panthers to 288 yards. Drew Brees is hitting 69 percent of his passes with a 6-0 TD-to-INT ratio, and Jay Cutler has a 2-1 ratio. Miami's defense is allowing just 352 yards per game. Miami has yet to play at home and now travels to London. I like New Orleans here, as the Saints have taken on three playoff-caliber teams and are better statistically than the Dolphins.
ATS pick: New Orleans
Erin Rynning's take: Expect a much stronger performance from the Dolphins after their debacle against the Jets last week. This team did respond to no-nonsense head coach Adam Gase after a slow start a season ago. Their offense will take a massive step forward this week after playing their first two weeks against the underrated stop-units of the Chargers and the Jets. This is still a porous Saints defense that lacks overall talent.
ATS pick: Miami and lean over
Warren Sharp's take: Through two weeks, Miami's defense has been abysmal. They are allowing 58 percent of passes to be successful, the second-worst rate in the NFL. The big problem for the Dolphins will be the fact that they've started the season against two teams that can't run the ball very well (Chargers and Jets) and now face the 13th-rated rushing attack and third-rated passing attack of the Saints. While I certainly don't believe the Saints' defense will be as strong as it appeared last week in Carolina, the Dolphins' offense currently ranks 32nd in red zone efficiency and 32nd in third-down efficiency -- not what you hope to bring to the field when you are trying to trade points with Brees.
Pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: While the Falcons appear to have avoided the early Super Bowl hangover at 3-0, they could be sitting at just 1-2 after narrow escapes in Chicago and Detroit. The matchup I like best here is the Falcons' high-flying pass attack against a rebuilt Bills secondary that has not been tested. The Bills have taken on Josh McCown, a not-100 percent Cam Newton and Trevor Siemian. In their last road game, they had a 12-1 first-down disadvantage in the first half at Carolina. I have a slight lean with Atlanta.
ATS pick: Lean Atlanta
Warren Sharp's take: While I want to believe that the Bills are deserving of a 2-1 record and can rely on their run game to go toe-to-toe in Atlanta, I have to look at the reality of their schedule, which has featured games against the bad offenses of the Jets (24th) and Panthers (25th). They were impressive at home against the Broncos, but in my circles, that wasn't very surprising given the situation. They have yet to face a truly dynamic offense like that of the Falcons.
Despite being minus-3 in turnover margin and minus-1 in return touchdown margin, Atlanta thoroughly dominated the Lions statistically last week. Since 2011, teams with those metrics have lost 124 out of 127 games, but Atlanta became just the fourth winner, thanks to a total domination which wasn't recognized on the scoreboard. The prior week, they dominated the Packers at home, as well. It's hard to believe that a defensive-oriented team like the Bills -- a team that wants to run the ball but relies on its leading rusher to double as its leading receiver and is without any significant wide receiver talent -- will be able to defeat Atlanta. That said, I still lean with the Bills to keep it close.
ATS pick: Lean Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Cincinnati
Phil Steele's take: The Browns and Bengals square off this weekend in a battle of winless teams. The hometown Browns are plus-2 yards per game this year, while the Bengals are minus-20 yards per game. I still side with the Bengals here, however, as their defense is allowing just 293 yards per game and were holding Green Bay to just 203 yards with four minutes to go last week. After scoring just nine points their first two games, new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor had the Bengals headed in a more positive direction last week against the Packers by reaching the end zone on two occasions. Cleveland trailed a poor Colts team in Week 3 by scores of 28-7 and 31-14 as a road favorite. While veteran Andy Dalton is struggling with a 2-4 TD-to-INT ratio this year, rookie DeShone Kizer has had some first-year jitters with just a 3-7 ratio. I originally had the Bengals as a playoff contender, and they are very capable of grabbing the road victory here.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Warren Sharp's take: The Bengals got off to a tremendous start against a difficult opponent (Green Bay) on the road last week under a new offensive coordinator. They finally get to test themselves against a defense unable to attack their weakness, the offensive line. Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and all of the Bengals' prior opponents rank extremely high in sack rate, including Green Bay (3), Houston (12) and Baltimore (14). More time for Andy Dalton to throw means more opportunities to hit those big, explosive plays that might be right around the corner this week. The Browns will need to get better production out of Kizer, as his passer rating and overall efficiency are among the worst in the NFL.
ATS pick: Lean Cincinnati
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: This is not the 2016 Rams team, as quarterback Jared Goff (63 quarterback rating last season, 118 quarterback rating thus far in 2017) and running back Todd Gurley are improved, and they have a receiving corps led by Sammy Watkins. Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense that he parted ways with in Denver, beat up Dallas in Week 2, but the Broncos are further advanced in that scheme. The Rams are allowing foes 43 yards above their season average. Dallas is on a short week after playing Monday, and the Rams have gone from 14 points per game on offense to 35.7 PPG. This is a step up in competition for the Rams, however, as they beat a "Luck-less" Indianapolis team and San Francisco, but lost at home to Washington by seven. The Redskins ran for 229 yards in that game and Ezekiel Elliott had his best game of this young 2017 season Monday night against Arizona.
ATS pick: Dallas
Warren Sharp's take: I knew heading into the season that the Cowboys' offense should start slowly due to its schedule of top defenses (Arizona, Denver and Giants). Sure enough, the Cowboys rank 10th in run success rate (46 percent) and 19th in pass success rate (44 percent); last year, they were first in run success rate (56 percent) and third in pass success rate (51 percent). But this is their get-well spot. The Rams' defense is not as strong as their year-to-date numbers suggest, thanks to playing Scott Tolzien in his only 2017 start and the 49ers' inept offense. Dallas should be able to run, which will open the pass even more. I liked the Rams getting at or above seven points, but will only lean that direction below seven.
ATS pick: Lean Los Angeles
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: The Lions are one replay review and a few inches away from being 3-0 and continuing last year's modus operandi of fourth-quarter comebacks despite being outgained. Minnesota is plus-60 yards per game, and the Vikings have shown a lot of improvement on offense. They have gone from 75 rushing yards per game (3.2 per carry) to 115 (4.0), while Sam Bradford threw for 341 yards versus the Saints and Case Keenum for 369 yards versus Tampa Bay. I will pass on this one, as I'm not as confident in Keenum getting it done for a second straight week.
Pick: Pass
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9)
Total: 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: New England has played the tougher schedule and beat its weakest opponent (New Orleans) 36-20 on the road. The Panthers' toughest foe so far is that same Saints squad that they lost to by 21 at home. Cam Newton is throwing for just 168 yards per game with a 2-4 TD-to-INT ratio and doesn't look 100 percent healthy. Tom Brady is throwing for 340 yards per game with an 8-0 ratio. It is the resistible force versus the movable object, as the Panthers average just 15 points per game. New England is actually No. 32 on defense this year, allowing 461 yards per game and 32 points per game. I have no real interest in this game, as you continue to pay an inflated price (-9) to back the Patriots.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: We have very little confidence in what we'll see on one side of the ball in this one, which is the Panthers' offense against the Patriots' defense. The Panthers' offense ranks 25th in efficiency, while the Patriots' defense ranks 32nd in efficiency. Last week, the Patriots kept Watson in the pocket and allowed him to throw all over, so it will be interesting to see if the Patriots replicate that game plan against Newton this week. Newton clearly is still not healthy, is without his top primary receiver (Greg Olsen) and might be without Kelvin Benjamin. Meanwhile, the Panthers' defense (ranked sixth overall) faced only the 49ers and Bills before getting torched by the Saints. It's hard to forecast what the Panthers can do offensively, but I don't know that their defense is up to the task of slowing down the Patriots.
Pick: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at New York Jets
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars have two key things going against them here, as they are an away favorite for the first time since 2011 and play for the first time without the benefit of a bye after returning from London. I believe, though, that they have enough of a talent edge to overcome those obstacles. The Jets' pedestrian offense is averaging 89 yards below what their opponents normally allow, and the Jaguars' defense is allowing just 260 yards per game. The Jacksonville defense is holding foes to 83 yards per game below their season average, and the Jets are averaging just 274 yards per game. With the Jets struggling to top 200 yards on offense and the Jaguars already having beaten Houston on the road by 22, I like Jack
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: Josh McCown will be in for a rude awakening against this Jaguars defense. He was sacked twice last week against a Dolphins defense that ranks as the NFL's worst against the pass and fifth worst in pass protection. But on Sunday, he will face a Jaguars defense that ranks No. 1 against the pass and No. 1 in pass rush. McCown will have much less time to throw and much more difficulty when attempting to pass. Therefore, it will be imperative that the Jets run the ball early and often in order to avoid that pass rush. And while the Jaguars rank No. 1 in pass defense, they rank dead last in run defense.
Pick: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Pittsburgh
Phil Steele's take: Although both teams enter play at 2-1, the Steelers are outgaining foes by 43 yards per game, while Baltimore is being outgained by 75 yards per game after its embarrassing loss to Jacksonville in London. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 division games. With Le'Veon Bell still not back to form, the Steelers are averaging just 302 yards per game on offense and 38 yards below what their opponents normally allow. I feel the Steelers are the stronger team, but it remains to be seen how home 'dog Baltimore will return to action following last week's debacle in London. My best lean on this game is probably on the under 42.5, especially with the Steelers ranked No. 1 in the NFL, holding their opponents to 125 yards below their season average.
ATS pick: Lean on the under 42.5
Warren Sharp's take: While both of these teams enter at 2-1, they are both far from the same teams that we remember in the past. The Steelers beat the Browns and the Vikings, who were starting a backup in his first game this year, while losing to the Bears. The Ravens beat those same Browns and the Bengals (with their now-fired offensive coordinator), while losing to the Jaguars. The problem for both teams is while they still have their star quarterbacks, neither is playing like one. The Ravens currently are averaging a NFL-worst ranking in yards per attempt, while the Steelers still have yet to find chemistry with either their run or pass games. There is nothing to indicate this game should be anything other than one decided by a close margin.
ATS pick: Lean on the under 42.5
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Houston Texans
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: I thought Deshaun Watson to Houston was a great move on draft day, as he's a winner with all the physical tools that mix well with a top-notch Texans defense. Watson has improved each week and nearly became the first rookie quarterback to beat Bill Belichick in Foxborough. Tennessee showed a powerful rush attack last week that wore down the mighty Seahawks defense in sweltering conditions, accumulating 195 yards on the ground on 5.6 yards per carry. The Titans' offense is averaging 95 yards above what opponents normally allow, and the Texans are 64 yards below in that category. Houston's defense is holding foes to 38 yards below their season average, and Tennessee is allowing 73 above. In a key battle in the AFC South, I will side with the defensive home 'dog.
ATS pick: Houston
Warren Sharp's take: I'll take Watson's performance in New England with a grain of salt. The Patriots employed a mush-rush strategy on defense to keep Watson somewhat contained in the pocket while allowing him to test his accuracy downfield. As a result, Watson didn't break a single explosive run, although he did have 5.1 yards per carry. Naturally, his passing output was stronger simply because the Patriots were not attempting to pressure Watson much in the pocket. This game boils down to offensive line protection. The Texans' offense ranks 32nd, while the Titans' offense ranks first. I believe the Titans will have more difficulty running the ball than they've had in prior weeks, but if Marcus Mariota has more time to throw, that could be the deciding factor.
Pick: Pass
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent San Francisco
Phil Steele's take: Arizona is now 0-3 against the spread and not living up to my preseason expectations. Carson Palmer has just a 4-4 TD-to-INT ratio, and the Cardinals are without their top offensive weapon David Johnson, who had more than 2,000 yards of total offense last season. The Cardinals had an excellent defense last season but let some key players go in the offseason. They have gone from holding foes to 42 yards per game below their season average to allowing 2 yards above. Arizona is on a short week after playing Monday, while San Francisco is well-rested after playing last Thursday. With the 49ers' offense showing some promise in their previous game against the Rams and the Cardinals having covered just three of their past 14 games, I'll lean with the 'dog in this one.
ATS pick: Lean San Francisco
Warren Sharp's take: Can the Cardinals protect Palmer? If they can provide adequate protection, Palmer, who is playing better than metrics indicate, and the Cardinals likely cover this spread. If they do not, I think there is enough potential for the 49ers with extra time to mount enough of a balanced attack to keep this game extremely close. The Cardinals do not have a run game to rely on, and they really could use one given Palmer's age and the lack of consistent pass protection from his line.
ATS pick: Lean San Francisco
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: Philadelphia got the win over the Giants last week, but the Eagles let me down, as they could not hold on to a 14-0 fourth quarter lead and won by only three (not covering the spread). The Chargers trailed both Denver and Kansas City for most of those games but probably should have beaten Miami at home. The Eagles' opening win at Washington by 13, with a 92-yard edge, looks even better after last week. Los Angeles has very little home edge, plus I feel the Eagles are the stronger team.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp's take: A quick look at the analytics-based box score at Sharp Football Stats shows that the Eagles were exceedingly lucky to walk away with a victory last week. The Giants made five red zone trips, but turned the ball over on downs twice. Because the Eagles could run the ball, they controlled the time of possession, but they were almost 2 yards per play worse than the Giants and posted a 38 percent success rate on passes, compared to a 60 percent rate from the Giants.
I view the Chargers as an AFC version of the Giants. Neither team can run the ball offensively (though the Chargers are less likely to abandon it early in games), both teams have solid defenses (at this point the Chargers is slightly superior) and both have erratic quarterbacks. I believe the Chargers should succeed in many of the same ways that the Giants did last week, but with a slightly more dangerous passing offense and a slightly better defense, I think the time of possession will be more balanced, and the Chargers will emerge victorious.
ATS pick: Los Angeles
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Like I said last week, when I throw the Giants in the trash, they start to play. They trailed the Eagles 14-0 in the fourth quarter, but Odell Beckham Jr. started catching touchdown passes, and the Giants even had the lead before eventually losing on a 61-yard field goal at the end. Eli Manning had averaged just 204 passing yards coming into the Philadelphia game before going 35-for-47 for 366 yards with perhaps the best receiving corps in the NFL back intact. The Giants' defense held its past two foes to season lows. Tampa Bay has a banged-up defense that is allowing foes 74 yards above their season average. The Buccaneers are also being outgained by 76 yards per game. Last week, a lot of desperate 0-2 teams got solid wins, and the Giants are now a desperate 0-3 team. I like New York here.
ATS pick: New York
Erin Rynning's take: The Giants' offense finally woke up last week in the second half against Philadelphia. It has been a potpourri of issues for the lack of Giants scoring, including health, red zone deficiencies and penalties to name a few. However, with the returning health of Beckham, this Giants offense can turn the corner to health as well. Of course, this banged-up Buccaneers defense made Case Keenum look like an All-Pro last week, while the Bucs' weaponry on offense will prove dangerous week in and week out.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: The key matchup in this game is the Giants' offensive line against the Buccaneers' defensive line. We know how badly the Giants looked to start the season when they were missing Beckham Jr. in the lineup. This team couldn't move the ball against a bad Cowboys defense and a mediocre Lions defense, but the Buccaneers' defense ranks dead last in pass rush efficiency. And with the Giants operating in a much more up-tempo, quick/short pass offense, the pass rush of the Bucs might be substantially neutralized. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers' offense has been far too pass heavy, and while the Giants' defense has not looked like the 2016 version, they still have a dangerous pass rush. Their weakness has been defending the run.
ATS pick: New York
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Denver
Phil Steele's take: This is a pretty substantial AFC West showdown, as Oakland and Denver need a victory here to keep pace with the front-running Chiefs. Both squads come in following outright defeats as road favorites, with the Raiders being embarrassed against the Redskins and the Broncos coming up short in Buffalo. Denver has clearly owned the recent series history with wins in eight of the past 10, while the favorite has cashed in eight of the past nine matchups. With the Broncos able to go all out with their bye week on deck, I'll give them a slight lean here.
ATS pick: Lean Denver
Erin Rynning's take: Obviously, both teams are coming off discouraging performances, having lost as favorites on the road last week. However, this well-rounded Broncos team will bounce back. Their loss at the Bills was somewhat fluky, as they controlled much of the game, while the Raiders were thoroughly dominated by the Redskins. No question, the Broncos own the much better defensive club in this matchup. In addition, their offense has surprisingly shown strong balance under former coordinator Mike McCoy.
ATS pick: Denver and under
Warren Sharp's take: Last week's results were a bit of an aberration. I do not believe the Raiders' offensive line was as poor as they appeared, nor do I believe the Redskins' defense was as great as it appeared. Simply put, it was just one of those spots in which nothing was going right early in the game, and it just snowballed. That said, apart from a Week 9 game in 2016, the Broncos' defense has Derek Carr's number. This Broncos defense certainly looks like it has solved its run defense issues, ranking first in the NFL despite facing good offensive lines and run games from Dallas and Buffalo in the past two weeks.
ATS pick: Lean Denver
