Best bets on Week 10 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 10 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Washington Redskins
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Washington
Phil Steele's take: The situation favors Minnesota, as the Vikings are fresh off a bye and enter Sunday at 6-2, having covered in their past three games. Washington was outgained 437-244 last week in Seattle, but came away with a 17-14 win. The Redskins had to travel back to the East Coast, and that was their third tough game in a row after facing Philadelphia and Dallas the previous two weeks. Washington may be coming off a misleading final, but also allowed a fumble return for a touchdown with 1:29 remaining against the Eagles, saw a lateral play end in a touchdown for Kansas City on MNF to lose by nine, and suffered a 14-point loss against Dallas when the Cowboys returned an interception for a touchdown with :21 remaining. Minnesota is plus-76 yards per game and Washington just plus-6 yards per game. I find it tough to go against either team.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: Hats off to Washington coach Jay Gruden and quarterback Kirk Cousins for forging a victory last week on the road in Seattle. However, in reality, the Redskins were outgained by 193 yards and Cousins was sacked six times. There is continued concern moving forward this week for Washington's injury-ravaged offensive line. Who will and won't play for the unit will be a game-time decision, but the line was missing four starters a week ago. Now, the worn-down unit will face perhaps the best defensive line in football in the Vikings, who are fresh off their bye week. The Redskins will face major issues moving the football, leading to a Vikings win.
ATS pick: Vikings -1.5
Warren Sharp's take: Both of these defenses have been tremendous this year, and while the Vikings' unit ranks better in most areas, the Redskins' defense has faced the No. 1 schedule of opposing offenses and has been riddled with injuries. The Minnesota defense will present a problem for the Redskins' beat-up offensive line from a pass rush perspective, as it ranks seventh best. The Washington run game is extremely poor, so this one should feature a lot of Cousins dropbacks. Minnesota has not been a great road team this season. It has only played three away from home, but it was buried in Pittsburgh, narrowly beat the Bears in Mitchell Trubisky's first start and handled the Browns after a dicey first half. Washington should do enough defensively to limit the Vikings' offense, so it will come down to Cousins making enough plays from shotgun.
ATS pick: Lean Redskins +1.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Washington 21
The pick: Washington and the over -- WAS +1.5, 42.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Chicago
Phil Steele's take: After Green Bay moved to 4-1 with a win over Dallas, my thought process was that the Packers were an average-to-below-average football team, but Aaron Rodgers made them a Super Bowl contender. Rodgers got hurt the following week and Green Bay is 0-3 since, losing by 13, 9 and 13. In Brett Hundley's two starts they are minus-71 yards below what their opponents usually allow. The Bears have a solid defense and are holding foes to 37 yards per game below their season average. Chicago beat two of the best teams in the NFL (Carolina and Pittsburgh) and almost upset Atlanta and Minnesota in its four home games. While Green Bay won the first meeting with Rodgers' four touchdown passes, Chicago had the edge in yards, 308-260, on the road.
Chicago is coming off a bye, and Green Bay is on a short week and traveling. With Trubisky as the starter, the Bears are 4-0 ATS. Chicago is great as a home 'dog at 8-1-1 ATS but has not been a division home favorite in three years. Even in an unusual role, the Bears are the stronger team and grab the home win.
ATS pick: Lean Bears -5.5
Warren Sharp's take: It's hard to fathom this line, but it's also even harder to fathom what the Packers did with their bye week. With actionable data on Hundley's first start against the Saints and two weeks to prepare, the best the Packers could muster was a nine-pass first quarter for 2.8 yards per attempt and a 33 percent success rate. Green Bay did not convert a single third down on a Hundley pass in the entire game. Chicago's strength is the rushing offense, and it should be able to control the clock. The Bears' defense is extremely underrated and can handle this downgraded Packers offense.
ATS pick: Lean Bears -5.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Chicago 19, Green Bay 17
The pick: Green Bay and the under -- GB +5, 38
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Pittsburgh
Phil Steele's take: I feel the Steelers are one of the top three teams in the NFL, and they have beaten the Colts in each of the past three seasons by an average of 24.3 points (Andrew Luck missed the previous two). Pittsburgh is plus-77 yards per game, and the Colts are minus-89 yards per game with four blowout losses by 37, 28, 14 and 27 versus the only playoff-caliber teams they've faced. The Steelers' defense has 26 sacks, and the Colts have allowed 35 sacks. Despite all those facts and the obvious pick being Pittsburgh, I am going to lean with the double-digit 'dog. The Steelers have four big games on deck and have actually lost their last three games coming off a bye. Pittsburgh has also won only one of its past nine road games by more than a touchdown. The Colts' offense is making some strides under Jacoby Brissett, and NFL 'dogs this year of nine points or more are 10-5 ATS.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis +10
Erin Rynning's take: The talented Steelers offense once talked about averaging more than 30 points per game. Well, they've yet to top 29 points in any one game this season. However, if they can't hit the 30-point barrier in this matchup, obviously something is amiss. The Colts are simply a mess on defense. A unit that's thin on talent has recently lost the services of Henry Anderson, Malik Hooker and Vontae Davis. The Colts are allowing 280 pass yards per game, 31st in the NFL, and these are the quarterbacks the Colts have faced the past five weeks: Tom Savage, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, essentially a one-legged Marcus Mariota and Brian Hoyer. The Steelers' red zone numbers are atrocious and can't help but improve against the Colts.
Pick: Over 45 and lean Steelers -10
Warren Sharp's take: Pittsburgh has been such an up-and-down team over the years, and 2017 has proved to be no different. The same team that beat the Browns by only three points and lost to both Mike Glennon and Bortles absolutely hammered the Vikings, Ravens and Bengals while handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season. The Steelers' offense is extremely strong, ranking sixth overall and in the top eight in both pass and rush efficiency. What's more, they have posted those marks against the No. 1 overall schedule of defenses. Meanwhile, this Colts' defense has played the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing offenses, yet ranks 27th in overall defensive efficiency.
Theoretically, this should set up for a big Steelers offensive output, but Pittsburgh's style of play, particularly on the road, has not been conducive to big point totals. The Colts' offense is good enough to hold the ball and eat up clock, but the question is will they be able to produce on the scoreboard? The Colts have previously faced three top-10 defenses, and they put up nine points per game against the Jaguars, Rams and Seahawks. The Steelers' defense ranks fourth.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Indianapolis 18
The pick: Over 44.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars are coming off a bye, but dominated Cincinnati with a 26-8 first-down edge and a 408-148 yardage edge the week before. Jacksonville is 5-3 and plus-86 yards per game. The Chargers opened the season 0-4, with three of their losses coming by three points or fewer. They have since rebounded to go 3-1, with their only loss coming on the road in New England by eight. The Jaguars are the stronger team and are at home, but the Chargers rarely lose by more than a field goal and catch Jacksonville in a down week.
ATS pick: Lean on Chargers +3.5
Erin Rynning's take: No question the NFL is a quarterback league, which is essentially the common denominator for a strong franchise. However, the Jaguars have put together the next best thing: a ferocious defensive front line. The Jaguars lead the NFL with 35 sacks and are allowing 156 yards passing per game. The immobile Philip Rivers will have his hands full generating offense. Meanwhile, the Chargers are building their own stout front with bookends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who've combined for 17 sacks. The Chargers' defensive unit started the campaign unsatisfactorily but hit their off week allowing 12.3 PPG in their past three contests.
Pick: Under 41
Warren Sharp's take: I foresee two key issues for the Chargers in this game, unless they changed their offense tremendously during the bye week. First, they run the ball far too often on first down without much success. Melvin Gordon is the NFL's least successful starter on early downs, recording just a 25 percent success rate, which translates to many second- or third-and-long predictable pass situations -- and that could be a disaster against this Jaguars defense. Second, they throw far too many passes to Keenan Allen, despite having a tremendous stable of great receivers on their roster. Allen may not be a very reliable target this week, as the Jags are the best defense in the league in defending slot receivers. So targets fed to Allen will be less efficient than typical, and those have already been very unsuccessful, particularly as it compares to other receivers.
ATS pick: Jacksonville -3.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 22, Los Angeles Chargers 16
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX -4, 41
New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Tampa Bay limps into this game with five straight losses, while the Jets are on a 6-0-1 ATS run since their 0-2 start. At the start of the season, Tampa would have been a double-digit favorite, and despite being very disappointing and the Jets very surprising, there has been a major correction in the market. Prior to last week's games, the Bucs were -4.5. They played their past two games with a banged-up Jameis Winston and are coming off a blowout loss on the road to a red-hot Saints team. The Jets were in a solid spot at home and dominated the Bills, but are now favored by almost a field goal on the road. A 100 percent Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably a better option than a 75 percent Jameis Winston.
While Tampa is just 2-6, it is minus-35 yards per game (the 4-5 Jets are minus-45 yards per game). The Bucs at home are plus-22 yards per game, going 2-2 with close losses to New England and Carolina (two of the NFL's best). The Jets are 1-3 on the road, their lone win coming at Cleveland in a game they were outgained 419-212 (they are minus-156 yards per game on the road). Fitzpatrick is facing his former team of two years, and I will take the value here despite top target Mike Evans being out due to a suspension.
ATS pick: Tampa Bay +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: Tampa Bay has looked bad of late, putting up just three points on the Panthers and 10 on the Saints. But the reality of both of those games was that Winston was injured, the Buccaneers have virtually no running game to speak of (fifth worst in success rate) and both of those defenses are top-seven against the pass. Realistically, Fitzpatrick is likely no downgrade compared to what Winston was providing, and his mobility actually is an upgrade. In addition, the Jets' pass defense ranks 21st, which is the worst unit the Buccaneers will have faced in over a month. Unfortunately, they won't have Evans due to suspension, so they will need other receivers to step up.
The Jets face one of the worst defenses in the league, but the offense has not really been tested much this year, facing the NFL's easiest schedule of defenses. That won't change in Week 10, and they won't likely meet much of a test on Sunday. With this short line, the team whose quarterback makes the least mistakes will likely walk away the victor.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Jets 24, Tampa Bay 22
The pick: Tampa Bay and the over -- TB +2.5, 43.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota was injured against Houston and missed the Miami game. He is still not 100 percent healthy but should start to become more mobile after just three rush attempts the past two weeks. The Bengals have covered in just one of their past seven as a road 'dog, and this season, they have lost by an average of 11.3 points per game in that role. Last week, the Bengals were in Jacksonville and were held to just eight first downs and outgained by 260 yards. Cincinnati is minus-102 yards per game on the road and should be outmatched in this one.
ATS pick: Tennessee -4.5
Warren Sharp's take: It will be fascinating to see Cincinnati's mentality in this game, as it seems to be a team with a fragile psyche. After inserting a new offensive coordinator, the Bengals looked strong in three consecutive games and won two of those three, but after dropping a game to the Steelers in humiliating fashion, they barely rallied to beat the Colts at home and then didn't even show up in Jacksonville, losing 23-7. After playing multiple strong defenses, the Bengals should look better against the 22nd-rated Titans defense. Plus, Cincy's strength defensively is against the run, ranking seventh best against the second-best schedule of run offenses. If the Bengals can slow the Titans' run game and force Mariota to beat them with the pass, this game could be close. If the Titans impose their will and establish the run and then pass off of that, the Bengals may appear to quit in the second half.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Cincinnati 20
The pick: Cincinnati and the over -- CIN +4.5, 40.5
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Bills have some solid factors in their favor here. They are 4-0 at home this season with wins over Oakland and Denver and get a dome team outdoors in the cold. Buffalo is 11-4 in its past 15 games as a home 'dog, and New Orleans has covered in just four of its past 14 as an away favorite. I am still going to side with the stronger team laying a field goal. Despite their 5-3 record, the Bills are being outgained by 41 yards per game and are only plus-13 yards per game in their undefeated home start. After their 0-2 start, the Saints are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and outgaining foes by 130 yards per game in that span while winning by an average of 15 points.
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans -3
Warren Sharp's take: New Orleans is a dome team that now has an outdoor edge: It can run the ball and play good defense. That allows this team to be less reliant on Drew Brees on the road, lowering the Saints' predictability and improving their efficiency. The Saints' rush offense impressively ranks third in efficiency, despite facing the second-toughest schedule of run defenses. Meanwhile, Buffalo returns the services of Charles Clay and adds Kelvin Benjamin, both making for solid upgrades to this passing offense. The pass defense is the strength of the Saints' defense, but the Bills should feel at home with their run offense going up against the 28th-rated Saints' run defense. Don't underestimate the fact that the Saints have faced pocket passer after pocket passer this season, and Tyrod Taylor's rushing could also cause trouble for the Saints' poor rush defense.
ATS pick: Buffalo +3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 23, Buffalo 22
The pick: Buffalo +3
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-11)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: While Cleveland is 0-8 and just 2-6 ATS this season, the Browns are only minus-12 yards per game. They have done a good bulk of their damage late in games when trailing big, however, so they're clearly not as good as the stats would indicate. The Lions are 4-4 and back in the hunt for their division despite losing their past three home games. Those losses were to Atlanta, Carolina and Pittsburgh, and were all close. Cleveland is allowing 69 percent completions and a 16:6 TD:INT ratio. The Lions' offense averaged just 288 yards per game over their first five games, but quarterback Matthew Stafford & Co. have averaged 415 yards per game over their past three. Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer is completing just 52 percent of his passes with a 3:11 TD:INT ratio, which doesn't translate into success here.
ATS pick: Lean on Detroit
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 26, Cleveland 16
The pick: Cleveland and the under -- CLV +12, 43.5
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-12)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: Remember when a banged-up 0-5 New York Giants team limped into Denver to face the Broncos, who had beaten Dallas and Oakland at home and were deemed one of the NFL's best with the top defense? The Giants won outright 23-10. That is the chance Houston has here. The Texans lost their top three defensive players in J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Brian Cushing. They traded LT Duane Brown and lost their star QB Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn ACL. In Tom Savage's two starts, they were home favorites versus Jacksonville (Week 1) and Indianapolis (last week) and lost both outright by 22 and 6 points, respectively, with just 245 yards per game. The Texans' defense allows 390 yards per game on the road. The Rams are 6-2 with the most potent offense in the NFL, averaging 32.9 points per game. The Rams have also won their past two games by 33 and 34 points.
ATS pick: Lean Rams -12
Warren Sharp's take: Picking this game comes down to being able to adequately judge exactly what the Texans are. I felt the Texans should not have even been favored over the Colts last week with Tom Savage under center and happily took the Colts +7 while playing the moneyline, as well. I believe that Savage is even worse than most people think he is, but that's not the only thing that is wrong with the Texans. Once they sustained massive losses to personnel in Week 5, this defense has been an utter disaster.
Without Deshaun Watson to control the clock and hit massive splash play touchdowns, it's likely this defense will look far worse with Savage under center. Additionally, I'm not buying that Savage will look substantially better with a full week of practice. He played in this offense last year with most of the same players, and he was the starting quarterback at the onset of this season. He knows the offense, and there isn't much that one week of practice will give him in hopes of succeeding against a top-10 Rams defense on the road if he can't muster any offense against one of the worst defenses at home.
ATS pick: Lean Rams -12
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 28, Houston 20
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST +12, 46.5
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: Dallas is 10-2 on the road with Dak Prescott at quarterback. Atlanta is suffering through the Super Bowl hangover this season, and the Falcons' high-flying offense, which averaged 34 points per game last season, has averaged just 16.6 PPG over the past five contests. Atlanta is 5-16 ATS as a home favorite since the midway point of the 2013 season. The Falcons have not only lost four of their past five, but Chicago had first-and-goal and four cracks at the end zone against Atlanta, and Detroit had a game-winning touchdown overturned by replay. I have noticed a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL come off MVP-caliber seasons and take a big drop the following year, and Matt Ryan is the latest example. Last year he completed 70 percent of his passes with a 45:7 TD:INT ratio, and this season he is at 66 percent with a 9:6 ratio. I will take the points and call for the outright upset, as the Cowboys try to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East.
ATS pick: Lean Cowboys +3
Warren Sharp's take: The huge discussion point rightfully hinges on Ezekiel Elliott. The NFL's most successful rushing offense will be without their most dominant running back, and the burden will fall onto the Cowboys' defense and passing offense. With Sean Lee playing, the Cowboys have held good -- and bad -- offenses in check for most of the season, including just 17 points allowed to the Chiefs and 19 to the Redskins. The Falcons just faced a very solid Panthers defense, but this offense produced 7, 17 and 25 points against AFC East defenses of the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets, respectively, all of which are worse than the Cowboys'. The key will be for the Falcons to rely on the one thing that the Cowboys can't, which is their run game.
If Atlanta can run the ball, control the clock and avoid obvious passing situations, it may be in a good place, offensively. But this Falcons team actually defensively ranks 24th against the pass and 29th against the run while playing a well-below-average schedule. Dallas should still have success moving the ball against the Falcons, but it may face more third-and-long attempts that it will have to convert via Prescott's arm.
ATS pick: Lean on Dallas +3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 26, Dallas 26
The pick: Dallas and the over -- DAL +3, 49
New York Giants (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Last week, I actually liked San Francisco's chances against Arizona, but the 49ers lost at home 20-10. They now take on a stumbling Giants team. The Giants were viewed as a playoff team coming into the season, and I had under 4.5 wins for San Francisco in my August NFL report. Last week, the Giants were coming off a bye but had a horrible effort in a 51-17 loss to the Rams, with a lot of the national media saying they quit and lacked effort. San Francisco is just 1-23 in its past 24 games, and that was a one-point win. The last time the Giants got away from their booing home fans, they beat Denver on the road. The Giants and 49ers have had eight memorable playoff games through the years, but this one features two teams that are a combined 1-16 on the season. San Francisco has scored just 10 points in each of its past three games. I will take the much-maligned Giants to grab the road win.
ATS pick: Lean Giants -2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants have faced the fourth-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses, and it has been even worse than that over the past month. New York faced the third-, sixth- and seventh-ranked defenses of the Rams, Broncos and Seahawks in consecutive games. And as a result, the offense has not looked even mildly competent. But this team finally gets to face a bad (25th-ranked) 49ers defense that ranks 27th against the pass and is without two defensive linemen and two safeties, all of whom were lost in their last game against the Cardinals. The New York defense has been terrible and ranks significantly worse than it did last year, but it will get the services of Janoris Jenkins back this week.
Expect the Giants to either look much better defensively or to fall apart entirely. C.J. Beathard has looked terrible for the 49ers, and the Giants' main goal will be to shut down Carlos Hyde. Fortunately, the Giants rank as the fourth-best defense at defending running back passes, and Hyde is by far the 49ers most-targeted receiver in the past month.
ATS pick: Lean Giants -2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Giants 22, San Francisco 21
The pick: San Francisco +1
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 10 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Washington Redskins
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Washington
Phil Steele's take: The situation favors Minnesota, as the Vikings are fresh off a bye and enter Sunday at 6-2, having covered in their past three games. Washington was outgained 437-244 last week in Seattle, but came away with a 17-14 win. The Redskins had to travel back to the East Coast, and that was their third tough game in a row after facing Philadelphia and Dallas the previous two weeks. Washington may be coming off a misleading final, but also allowed a fumble return for a touchdown with 1:29 remaining against the Eagles, saw a lateral play end in a touchdown for Kansas City on MNF to lose by nine, and suffered a 14-point loss against Dallas when the Cowboys returned an interception for a touchdown with :21 remaining. Minnesota is plus-76 yards per game and Washington just plus-6 yards per game. I find it tough to go against either team.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: Hats off to Washington coach Jay Gruden and quarterback Kirk Cousins for forging a victory last week on the road in Seattle. However, in reality, the Redskins were outgained by 193 yards and Cousins was sacked six times. There is continued concern moving forward this week for Washington's injury-ravaged offensive line. Who will and won't play for the unit will be a game-time decision, but the line was missing four starters a week ago. Now, the worn-down unit will face perhaps the best defensive line in football in the Vikings, who are fresh off their bye week. The Redskins will face major issues moving the football, leading to a Vikings win.
ATS pick: Vikings -1.5
Warren Sharp's take: Both of these defenses have been tremendous this year, and while the Vikings' unit ranks better in most areas, the Redskins' defense has faced the No. 1 schedule of opposing offenses and has been riddled with injuries. The Minnesota defense will present a problem for the Redskins' beat-up offensive line from a pass rush perspective, as it ranks seventh best. The Washington run game is extremely poor, so this one should feature a lot of Cousins dropbacks. Minnesota has not been a great road team this season. It has only played three away from home, but it was buried in Pittsburgh, narrowly beat the Bears in Mitchell Trubisky's first start and handled the Browns after a dicey first half. Washington should do enough defensively to limit the Vikings' offense, so it will come down to Cousins making enough plays from shotgun.
ATS pick: Lean Redskins +1.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Washington 21
The pick: Washington and the over -- WAS +1.5, 42.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Chicago
Phil Steele's take: After Green Bay moved to 4-1 with a win over Dallas, my thought process was that the Packers were an average-to-below-average football team, but Aaron Rodgers made them a Super Bowl contender. Rodgers got hurt the following week and Green Bay is 0-3 since, losing by 13, 9 and 13. In Brett Hundley's two starts they are minus-71 yards below what their opponents usually allow. The Bears have a solid defense and are holding foes to 37 yards per game below their season average. Chicago beat two of the best teams in the NFL (Carolina and Pittsburgh) and almost upset Atlanta and Minnesota in its four home games. While Green Bay won the first meeting with Rodgers' four touchdown passes, Chicago had the edge in yards, 308-260, on the road.
Chicago is coming off a bye, and Green Bay is on a short week and traveling. With Trubisky as the starter, the Bears are 4-0 ATS. Chicago is great as a home 'dog at 8-1-1 ATS but has not been a division home favorite in three years. Even in an unusual role, the Bears are the stronger team and grab the home win.
ATS pick: Lean Bears -5.5
Warren Sharp's take: It's hard to fathom this line, but it's also even harder to fathom what the Packers did with their bye week. With actionable data on Hundley's first start against the Saints and two weeks to prepare, the best the Packers could muster was a nine-pass first quarter for 2.8 yards per attempt and a 33 percent success rate. Green Bay did not convert a single third down on a Hundley pass in the entire game. Chicago's strength is the rushing offense, and it should be able to control the clock. The Bears' defense is extremely underrated and can handle this downgraded Packers offense.
ATS pick: Lean Bears -5.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Chicago 19, Green Bay 17
The pick: Green Bay and the under -- GB +5, 38
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Pittsburgh
Phil Steele's take: I feel the Steelers are one of the top three teams in the NFL, and they have beaten the Colts in each of the past three seasons by an average of 24.3 points (Andrew Luck missed the previous two). Pittsburgh is plus-77 yards per game, and the Colts are minus-89 yards per game with four blowout losses by 37, 28, 14 and 27 versus the only playoff-caliber teams they've faced. The Steelers' defense has 26 sacks, and the Colts have allowed 35 sacks. Despite all those facts and the obvious pick being Pittsburgh, I am going to lean with the double-digit 'dog. The Steelers have four big games on deck and have actually lost their last three games coming off a bye. Pittsburgh has also won only one of its past nine road games by more than a touchdown. The Colts' offense is making some strides under Jacoby Brissett, and NFL 'dogs this year of nine points or more are 10-5 ATS.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis +10
Erin Rynning's take: The talented Steelers offense once talked about averaging more than 30 points per game. Well, they've yet to top 29 points in any one game this season. However, if they can't hit the 30-point barrier in this matchup, obviously something is amiss. The Colts are simply a mess on defense. A unit that's thin on talent has recently lost the services of Henry Anderson, Malik Hooker and Vontae Davis. The Colts are allowing 280 pass yards per game, 31st in the NFL, and these are the quarterbacks the Colts have faced the past five weeks: Tom Savage, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, essentially a one-legged Marcus Mariota and Brian Hoyer. The Steelers' red zone numbers are atrocious and can't help but improve against the Colts.
Pick: Over 45 and lean Steelers -10
Warren Sharp's take: Pittsburgh has been such an up-and-down team over the years, and 2017 has proved to be no different. The same team that beat the Browns by only three points and lost to both Mike Glennon and Bortles absolutely hammered the Vikings, Ravens and Bengals while handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season. The Steelers' offense is extremely strong, ranking sixth overall and in the top eight in both pass and rush efficiency. What's more, they have posted those marks against the No. 1 overall schedule of defenses. Meanwhile, this Colts' defense has played the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing offenses, yet ranks 27th in overall defensive efficiency.
Theoretically, this should set up for a big Steelers offensive output, but Pittsburgh's style of play, particularly on the road, has not been conducive to big point totals. The Colts' offense is good enough to hold the ball and eat up clock, but the question is will they be able to produce on the scoreboard? The Colts have previously faced three top-10 defenses, and they put up nine points per game against the Jaguars, Rams and Seahawks. The Steelers' defense ranks fourth.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Indianapolis 18
The pick: Over 44.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars are coming off a bye, but dominated Cincinnati with a 26-8 first-down edge and a 408-148 yardage edge the week before. Jacksonville is 5-3 and plus-86 yards per game. The Chargers opened the season 0-4, with three of their losses coming by three points or fewer. They have since rebounded to go 3-1, with their only loss coming on the road in New England by eight. The Jaguars are the stronger team and are at home, but the Chargers rarely lose by more than a field goal and catch Jacksonville in a down week.
ATS pick: Lean on Chargers +3.5
Erin Rynning's take: No question the NFL is a quarterback league, which is essentially the common denominator for a strong franchise. However, the Jaguars have put together the next best thing: a ferocious defensive front line. The Jaguars lead the NFL with 35 sacks and are allowing 156 yards passing per game. The immobile Philip Rivers will have his hands full generating offense. Meanwhile, the Chargers are building their own stout front with bookends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who've combined for 17 sacks. The Chargers' defensive unit started the campaign unsatisfactorily but hit their off week allowing 12.3 PPG in their past three contests.
Pick: Under 41
Warren Sharp's take: I foresee two key issues for the Chargers in this game, unless they changed their offense tremendously during the bye week. First, they run the ball far too often on first down without much success. Melvin Gordon is the NFL's least successful starter on early downs, recording just a 25 percent success rate, which translates to many second- or third-and-long predictable pass situations -- and that could be a disaster against this Jaguars defense. Second, they throw far too many passes to Keenan Allen, despite having a tremendous stable of great receivers on their roster. Allen may not be a very reliable target this week, as the Jags are the best defense in the league in defending slot receivers. So targets fed to Allen will be less efficient than typical, and those have already been very unsuccessful, particularly as it compares to other receivers.
ATS pick: Jacksonville -3.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 22, Los Angeles Chargers 16
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX -4, 41
New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Tampa Bay limps into this game with five straight losses, while the Jets are on a 6-0-1 ATS run since their 0-2 start. At the start of the season, Tampa would have been a double-digit favorite, and despite being very disappointing and the Jets very surprising, there has been a major correction in the market. Prior to last week's games, the Bucs were -4.5. They played their past two games with a banged-up Jameis Winston and are coming off a blowout loss on the road to a red-hot Saints team. The Jets were in a solid spot at home and dominated the Bills, but are now favored by almost a field goal on the road. A 100 percent Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably a better option than a 75 percent Jameis Winston.
While Tampa is just 2-6, it is minus-35 yards per game (the 4-5 Jets are minus-45 yards per game). The Bucs at home are plus-22 yards per game, going 2-2 with close losses to New England and Carolina (two of the NFL's best). The Jets are 1-3 on the road, their lone win coming at Cleveland in a game they were outgained 419-212 (they are minus-156 yards per game on the road). Fitzpatrick is facing his former team of two years, and I will take the value here despite top target Mike Evans being out due to a suspension.
ATS pick: Tampa Bay +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: Tampa Bay has looked bad of late, putting up just three points on the Panthers and 10 on the Saints. But the reality of both of those games was that Winston was injured, the Buccaneers have virtually no running game to speak of (fifth worst in success rate) and both of those defenses are top-seven against the pass. Realistically, Fitzpatrick is likely no downgrade compared to what Winston was providing, and his mobility actually is an upgrade. In addition, the Jets' pass defense ranks 21st, which is the worst unit the Buccaneers will have faced in over a month. Unfortunately, they won't have Evans due to suspension, so they will need other receivers to step up.
The Jets face one of the worst defenses in the league, but the offense has not really been tested much this year, facing the NFL's easiest schedule of defenses. That won't change in Week 10, and they won't likely meet much of a test on Sunday. With this short line, the team whose quarterback makes the least mistakes will likely walk away the victor.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Jets 24, Tampa Bay 22
The pick: Tampa Bay and the over -- TB +2.5, 43.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota was injured against Houston and missed the Miami game. He is still not 100 percent healthy but should start to become more mobile after just three rush attempts the past two weeks. The Bengals have covered in just one of their past seven as a road 'dog, and this season, they have lost by an average of 11.3 points per game in that role. Last week, the Bengals were in Jacksonville and were held to just eight first downs and outgained by 260 yards. Cincinnati is minus-102 yards per game on the road and should be outmatched in this one.
ATS pick: Tennessee -4.5
Warren Sharp's take: It will be fascinating to see Cincinnati's mentality in this game, as it seems to be a team with a fragile psyche. After inserting a new offensive coordinator, the Bengals looked strong in three consecutive games and won two of those three, but after dropping a game to the Steelers in humiliating fashion, they barely rallied to beat the Colts at home and then didn't even show up in Jacksonville, losing 23-7. After playing multiple strong defenses, the Bengals should look better against the 22nd-rated Titans defense. Plus, Cincy's strength defensively is against the run, ranking seventh best against the second-best schedule of run offenses. If the Bengals can slow the Titans' run game and force Mariota to beat them with the pass, this game could be close. If the Titans impose their will and establish the run and then pass off of that, the Bengals may appear to quit in the second half.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Cincinnati 20
The pick: Cincinnati and the over -- CIN +4.5, 40.5
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Bills have some solid factors in their favor here. They are 4-0 at home this season with wins over Oakland and Denver and get a dome team outdoors in the cold. Buffalo is 11-4 in its past 15 games as a home 'dog, and New Orleans has covered in just four of its past 14 as an away favorite. I am still going to side with the stronger team laying a field goal. Despite their 5-3 record, the Bills are being outgained by 41 yards per game and are only plus-13 yards per game in their undefeated home start. After their 0-2 start, the Saints are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and outgaining foes by 130 yards per game in that span while winning by an average of 15 points.
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans -3
Warren Sharp's take: New Orleans is a dome team that now has an outdoor edge: It can run the ball and play good defense. That allows this team to be less reliant on Drew Brees on the road, lowering the Saints' predictability and improving their efficiency. The Saints' rush offense impressively ranks third in efficiency, despite facing the second-toughest schedule of run defenses. Meanwhile, Buffalo returns the services of Charles Clay and adds Kelvin Benjamin, both making for solid upgrades to this passing offense. The pass defense is the strength of the Saints' defense, but the Bills should feel at home with their run offense going up against the 28th-rated Saints' run defense. Don't underestimate the fact that the Saints have faced pocket passer after pocket passer this season, and Tyrod Taylor's rushing could also cause trouble for the Saints' poor rush defense.
ATS pick: Buffalo +3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 23, Buffalo 22
The pick: Buffalo +3
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-11)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: While Cleveland is 0-8 and just 2-6 ATS this season, the Browns are only minus-12 yards per game. They have done a good bulk of their damage late in games when trailing big, however, so they're clearly not as good as the stats would indicate. The Lions are 4-4 and back in the hunt for their division despite losing their past three home games. Those losses were to Atlanta, Carolina and Pittsburgh, and were all close. Cleveland is allowing 69 percent completions and a 16:6 TD:INT ratio. The Lions' offense averaged just 288 yards per game over their first five games, but quarterback Matthew Stafford & Co. have averaged 415 yards per game over their past three. Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer is completing just 52 percent of his passes with a 3:11 TD:INT ratio, which doesn't translate into success here.
ATS pick: Lean on Detroit
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 26, Cleveland 16
The pick: Cleveland and the under -- CLV +12, 43.5
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-12)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Los Angeles
Phil Steele's take: Remember when a banged-up 0-5 New York Giants team limped into Denver to face the Broncos, who had beaten Dallas and Oakland at home and were deemed one of the NFL's best with the top defense? The Giants won outright 23-10. That is the chance Houston has here. The Texans lost their top three defensive players in J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Brian Cushing. They traded LT Duane Brown and lost their star QB Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn ACL. In Tom Savage's two starts, they were home favorites versus Jacksonville (Week 1) and Indianapolis (last week) and lost both outright by 22 and 6 points, respectively, with just 245 yards per game. The Texans' defense allows 390 yards per game on the road. The Rams are 6-2 with the most potent offense in the NFL, averaging 32.9 points per game. The Rams have also won their past two games by 33 and 34 points.
ATS pick: Lean Rams -12
Warren Sharp's take: Picking this game comes down to being able to adequately judge exactly what the Texans are. I felt the Texans should not have even been favored over the Colts last week with Tom Savage under center and happily took the Colts +7 while playing the moneyline, as well. I believe that Savage is even worse than most people think he is, but that's not the only thing that is wrong with the Texans. Once they sustained massive losses to personnel in Week 5, this defense has been an utter disaster.
Without Deshaun Watson to control the clock and hit massive splash play touchdowns, it's likely this defense will look far worse with Savage under center. Additionally, I'm not buying that Savage will look substantially better with a full week of practice. He played in this offense last year with most of the same players, and he was the starting quarterback at the onset of this season. He knows the offense, and there isn't much that one week of practice will give him in hopes of succeeding against a top-10 Rams defense on the road if he can't muster any offense against one of the worst defenses at home.
ATS pick: Lean Rams -12
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 28, Houston 20
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST +12, 46.5
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: Dallas is 10-2 on the road with Dak Prescott at quarterback. Atlanta is suffering through the Super Bowl hangover this season, and the Falcons' high-flying offense, which averaged 34 points per game last season, has averaged just 16.6 PPG over the past five contests. Atlanta is 5-16 ATS as a home favorite since the midway point of the 2013 season. The Falcons have not only lost four of their past five, but Chicago had first-and-goal and four cracks at the end zone against Atlanta, and Detroit had a game-winning touchdown overturned by replay. I have noticed a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL come off MVP-caliber seasons and take a big drop the following year, and Matt Ryan is the latest example. Last year he completed 70 percent of his passes with a 45:7 TD:INT ratio, and this season he is at 66 percent with a 9:6 ratio. I will take the points and call for the outright upset, as the Cowboys try to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East.
ATS pick: Lean Cowboys +3
Warren Sharp's take: The huge discussion point rightfully hinges on Ezekiel Elliott. The NFL's most successful rushing offense will be without their most dominant running back, and the burden will fall onto the Cowboys' defense and passing offense. With Sean Lee playing, the Cowboys have held good -- and bad -- offenses in check for most of the season, including just 17 points allowed to the Chiefs and 19 to the Redskins. The Falcons just faced a very solid Panthers defense, but this offense produced 7, 17 and 25 points against AFC East defenses of the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets, respectively, all of which are worse than the Cowboys'. The key will be for the Falcons to rely on the one thing that the Cowboys can't, which is their run game.
If Atlanta can run the ball, control the clock and avoid obvious passing situations, it may be in a good place, offensively. But this Falcons team actually defensively ranks 24th against the pass and 29th against the run while playing a well-below-average schedule. Dallas should still have success moving the ball against the Falcons, but it may face more third-and-long attempts that it will have to convert via Prescott's arm.
ATS pick: Lean on Dallas +3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 26, Dallas 26
The pick: Dallas and the over -- DAL +3, 49
New York Giants (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: Last week, I actually liked San Francisco's chances against Arizona, but the 49ers lost at home 20-10. They now take on a stumbling Giants team. The Giants were viewed as a playoff team coming into the season, and I had under 4.5 wins for San Francisco in my August NFL report. Last week, the Giants were coming off a bye but had a horrible effort in a 51-17 loss to the Rams, with a lot of the national media saying they quit and lacked effort. San Francisco is just 1-23 in its past 24 games, and that was a one-point win. The last time the Giants got away from their booing home fans, they beat Denver on the road. The Giants and 49ers have had eight memorable playoff games through the years, but this one features two teams that are a combined 1-16 on the season. San Francisco has scored just 10 points in each of its past three games. I will take the much-maligned Giants to grab the road win.
ATS pick: Lean Giants -2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants have faced the fourth-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses, and it has been even worse than that over the past month. New York faced the third-, sixth- and seventh-ranked defenses of the Rams, Broncos and Seahawks in consecutive games. And as a result, the offense has not looked even mildly competent. But this team finally gets to face a bad (25th-ranked) 49ers defense that ranks 27th against the pass and is without two defensive linemen and two safeties, all of whom were lost in their last game against the Cardinals. The New York defense has been terrible and ranks significantly worse than it did last year, but it will get the services of Janoris Jenkins back this week.
Expect the Giants to either look much better defensively or to fall apart entirely. C.J. Beathard has looked terrible for the 49ers, and the Giants' main goal will be to shut down Carlos Hyde. Fortunately, the Giants rank as the fourth-best defense at defending running back passes, and Hyde is by far the 49ers most-targeted receiver in the past month.
ATS pick: Lean Giants -2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New York Giants 22, San Francisco 21
The pick: San Francisco +1
