[h=1]Best bets for WC quarterfinals[/h][h=3]France, Colombia among strong value wagers as underdogs in the quarters[/h]By James Eastham | ESPN Insider
We're down to the last eight teams at what's been a fabulous World Cup in Brazil, and the matchups for the games taking place on Friday and Saturday look as intriguing as we always expected them to be. Not only do the games look exciting, but there are some good betting opportunities, as well.
Here are the best bets for the 2014 World Cup quarterfinals.
[h=3]France vs. Germany[/h]
Asian handicap: France +0.25 (-125) vs. Germany -0.25 (+116)
3-way line: France +213 / Germany +155 / Draw +224
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 55 percent Germany
Total: 2.25 (Over +108, Under -118)
Given the way these two teams have played in Brazil, what earthly reason can there be for Germany being favorites? Joachim Low's side kicked off with a 4-0 win over an appalling Portugal side but then drew 2-2 against Ghana, beat U.S. 1-0 in a game that ultimately didn't matter and labored to a 2-1 extra-time victory over an Algeria side that had the chances to win the game in normal time. Most observers would conclude France has played the better football, having watched Les Bleus thrash Honduras (3-0) and Switzerland (5-2) in the group stages before overcoming a stubborn Nigeria (2-0) in the round of 16.<OFFER></OFFER>
The one quality Germany has that France doesn't is tournament experience. Low's side is full of players with stacks of international appearances to their names, and their greater know-how of knockout football could give them a crucial edge. But taking all factors into account, I'd say this is a 50-50 tie, so the value lies with the underdogs. By backing France with a minor Asian handicap start, you'll make money as long as they avoid defeat.
The pick: France +0.25 Asian handicap (-125)
[h=3]Brazil vs. Colombia[/h]
Asian handicap: Brazil -0.5 (-118) vs. Columbia +0.5 (+110)
3-way line: Brazil -118 / Colombia +388 / Draw +265
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 70 percent Brazil
Total: 2.25 (Over -105, Under -103)
This is another of those games where it's difficult to understand why the favorites are ... well, such strong favorites. Yes, Brazil are favorites to win the entire thing (and have been since before the World Cup kicked off) and benefit from home-field advantage, but that has made little difference over the past three weeks.
Luiz Felipe Scolari's side won just two of their four matches: unconvincingly versus Croatia (3-1) thanks to some dubious refereeing decisions, and then against a Cameroon team (4-1) that had already been eliminated from the competition. Brazil's stats and performance standard alone make them a risky bet at such short odds, and when you take into account the quality of the opposition they face, the minus-118 price makes no sense at all.
Colombia has been one of the competition's finest sides and showed no signs of waning as they brushed aside Uruguay 2-0 in the round of 16 last Saturday. Star James Rodriguez has lit up the tournament and has a fabulous supporting cast, and the fact that fellow South Americans Chile took Brazil all the way to penalties in the round of 16 means Colombia will attack the game with no fear.
Colombia's long odds give you great opportunities on the Asian handicap, so that's the pick.
The pick: Colombia +0.5 Asian handicap (+110)
[h=3]Argentina vs. Belgium[/h]
Asian handicap: Argentina -0.25 (-112) vs. Belgium +0.25 (+105)
3-way line: Argentina +121 / Belgium +277 / Draw +230
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: N/A
Total: 2.25 (Over +108, Under -118)
At the risk of repeating myself, why is one side so much shorter than the other when the two teams have looked largely well-matched throughout the tournament? The answer, of course, is probably Lionel Messi -- the presence of the world's most decisively gifted footballer makes the bookmakers wary of opposing Argentina -- but Messi's presence didn't manage to secure a normal-time victory for Argentina against Switzerland in the round of 16, did it?
We saw in the group stages, of course, that Messi is capable of conjuring a moment of magic that can win any match, but Switzerland showed that if you work hard enough to nullify Messi's threat, you can be successful, at least for periods at a time. And I would argue Belgium have greater attacking ability than Switzerland, meaning they are likely to pose a stiffer test for Argentina's highly questionable back line than the Swiss ever did.
Part of me is reluctant to back against Messi, as it's one of those decisions that can leave you looking foolish, but I have to go with what I've seen and what the stats have revealed at the tournament so far. This is one of three quarterfinals where taking on the underdog genuinely looks the way to play.
The pick: Belgium +0.25 Asian handicap (+105)
[h=3]Netherlands vs. Costa Rica[/h]
Asian handicap: Netherlands -1 (-109) vs. Costa Rica +1 (+102)
3-way line: Netherlands -189 / Costa Rica +640 / Draw +334
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 74 percent Netherlands
Total: 2.25 (Over -117, Under +107)
Costa Rica's progress into the final eight against the odds has been a joy to watch, but this is where I expect their run to end. Behind the media excitement that accompanies all underdogs going deep at World Cup, the bald truth is that Costa Rica hasn't actually played that well. Yes, they beat Uruguay 3-1 in their opening match, but the South Americans produced one of the tournament's most dismal performances, and Italy were little better when they succumbed 1-0 to Costa Rica six days later. Perhaps most significantly, Costa Rica struggled to shake off Greece in the round of 16, needing penalties to go through -- and while there were mitigating circumstances (such as defender Oscar Duarte's red card on 66 minutes), it was a pretty mediocre performance from Jorge Luis Pinto's side.
What Holland has that Costa Rica does not is match-winning talent in the final third of the pitch. Arjen Robben has been one of the tournament's outstanding players, there is more to come from Robin van Persie, and the winning penalty that backup striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar struck in Holland's 2-1 round-of-16 win over Mexico will have done his confidence no harm.
That deep match-winning ability is why I expect Holland to win fairly comfortably. If the minus-189 price on the Dutch going through in 90 minutes is too short for you, consider backing them minus-1 Asian handicap at bigger odds. With this wager, you'll get your stakes back if Holland wins by one goal, and you'll make money if they win by two or more goals.
The pick: Holland -1 Asian handicap (-109)
We're down to the last eight teams at what's been a fabulous World Cup in Brazil, and the matchups for the games taking place on Friday and Saturday look as intriguing as we always expected them to be. Not only do the games look exciting, but there are some good betting opportunities, as well.
Here are the best bets for the 2014 World Cup quarterfinals.
[h=3]France vs. Germany[/h]
Asian handicap: France +0.25 (-125) vs. Germany -0.25 (+116)
3-way line: France +213 / Germany +155 / Draw +224
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 55 percent Germany
Total: 2.25 (Over +108, Under -118)
Given the way these two teams have played in Brazil, what earthly reason can there be for Germany being favorites? Joachim Low's side kicked off with a 4-0 win over an appalling Portugal side but then drew 2-2 against Ghana, beat U.S. 1-0 in a game that ultimately didn't matter and labored to a 2-1 extra-time victory over an Algeria side that had the chances to win the game in normal time. Most observers would conclude France has played the better football, having watched Les Bleus thrash Honduras (3-0) and Switzerland (5-2) in the group stages before overcoming a stubborn Nigeria (2-0) in the round of 16.<OFFER></OFFER>
The one quality Germany has that France doesn't is tournament experience. Low's side is full of players with stacks of international appearances to their names, and their greater know-how of knockout football could give them a crucial edge. But taking all factors into account, I'd say this is a 50-50 tie, so the value lies with the underdogs. By backing France with a minor Asian handicap start, you'll make money as long as they avoid defeat.
The pick: France +0.25 Asian handicap (-125)
[h=3]Brazil vs. Colombia[/h]
Asian handicap: Brazil -0.5 (-118) vs. Columbia +0.5 (+110)
3-way line: Brazil -118 / Colombia +388 / Draw +265
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 70 percent Brazil
Total: 2.25 (Over -105, Under -103)
This is another of those games where it's difficult to understand why the favorites are ... well, such strong favorites. Yes, Brazil are favorites to win the entire thing (and have been since before the World Cup kicked off) and benefit from home-field advantage, but that has made little difference over the past three weeks.
Luiz Felipe Scolari's side won just two of their four matches: unconvincingly versus Croatia (3-1) thanks to some dubious refereeing decisions, and then against a Cameroon team (4-1) that had already been eliminated from the competition. Brazil's stats and performance standard alone make them a risky bet at such short odds, and when you take into account the quality of the opposition they face, the minus-118 price makes no sense at all.
Colombia has been one of the competition's finest sides and showed no signs of waning as they brushed aside Uruguay 2-0 in the round of 16 last Saturday. Star James Rodriguez has lit up the tournament and has a fabulous supporting cast, and the fact that fellow South Americans Chile took Brazil all the way to penalties in the round of 16 means Colombia will attack the game with no fear.
Colombia's long odds give you great opportunities on the Asian handicap, so that's the pick.
The pick: Colombia +0.5 Asian handicap (+110)
[h=3]Argentina vs. Belgium[/h]
Asian handicap: Argentina -0.25 (-112) vs. Belgium +0.25 (+105)
3-way line: Argentina +121 / Belgium +277 / Draw +230
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: N/A
Total: 2.25 (Over +108, Under -118)
At the risk of repeating myself, why is one side so much shorter than the other when the two teams have looked largely well-matched throughout the tournament? The answer, of course, is probably Lionel Messi -- the presence of the world's most decisively gifted footballer makes the bookmakers wary of opposing Argentina -- but Messi's presence didn't manage to secure a normal-time victory for Argentina against Switzerland in the round of 16, did it?
We saw in the group stages, of course, that Messi is capable of conjuring a moment of magic that can win any match, but Switzerland showed that if you work hard enough to nullify Messi's threat, you can be successful, at least for periods at a time. And I would argue Belgium have greater attacking ability than Switzerland, meaning they are likely to pose a stiffer test for Argentina's highly questionable back line than the Swiss ever did.
Part of me is reluctant to back against Messi, as it's one of those decisions that can leave you looking foolish, but I have to go with what I've seen and what the stats have revealed at the tournament so far. This is one of three quarterfinals where taking on the underdog genuinely looks the way to play.
The pick: Belgium +0.25 Asian handicap (+105)
[h=3]Netherlands vs. Costa Rica[/h]
Asian handicap: Netherlands -1 (-109) vs. Costa Rica +1 (+102)
3-way line: Netherlands -189 / Costa Rica +640 / Draw +334
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 74 percent Netherlands
Total: 2.25 (Over -117, Under +107)
Costa Rica's progress into the final eight against the odds has been a joy to watch, but this is where I expect their run to end. Behind the media excitement that accompanies all underdogs going deep at World Cup, the bald truth is that Costa Rica hasn't actually played that well. Yes, they beat Uruguay 3-1 in their opening match, but the South Americans produced one of the tournament's most dismal performances, and Italy were little better when they succumbed 1-0 to Costa Rica six days later. Perhaps most significantly, Costa Rica struggled to shake off Greece in the round of 16, needing penalties to go through -- and while there were mitigating circumstances (such as defender Oscar Duarte's red card on 66 minutes), it was a pretty mediocre performance from Jorge Luis Pinto's side.
What Holland has that Costa Rica does not is match-winning talent in the final third of the pitch. Arjen Robben has been one of the tournament's outstanding players, there is more to come from Robin van Persie, and the winning penalty that backup striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar struck in Holland's 2-1 round-of-16 win over Mexico will have done his confidence no harm.
That deep match-winning ability is why I expect Holland to win fairly comfortably. If the minus-189 price on the Dutch going through in 90 minutes is too short for you, consider backing them minus-1 Asian handicap at bigger odds. With this wager, you'll get your stakes back if Holland wins by one goal, and you'll make money if they win by two or more goals.
The pick: Holland -1 Asian handicap (-109)
