Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo
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The main event offers a likely striking duel between two of the best bantamweights. As with any Jose Aldo fight at this point in his career, we must wonder if his opponent can execute to his peak potential to get past one of the all-time greats. If Rob Font can do it, he'll prove himself worth of title contention.
MMA analysts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker are here to give you their best bets for UFC Fight Night.
Prelims start at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Bantamweight main event: Rob Font (-140) vs. Jose Aldo (+120)
Tale Of The Tape
| JOSE ALDO | ROB FONT | |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Age | 35 | 34 |
| Height | 67 | 68 |
| Reach | 70 | 71.5 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 343 | 125 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 9:3 | 6:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Head jab accuracy | 32% | 36% |
| Head power accuracy | 35% | 36% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 75% | 73% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 99% | 100% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Takedown accuracy | 57% | 40% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 101 | 39 |
| Takedown defense | 91% | 54% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 67% | 39% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.14 | 0.18 |
In a five-rounder, durability and cardio will be critical, but Font so far hasn't shown any weakness on his chin. And in his last fight against former champion and dangerous power striker Cody Garbrandt, Font actually picked up speed into the later rounds, ultimately putting on a blistering pace in the fourth and fifth rounds. Should he execute that same performance without succumbing to a big counter or Aldo's notorious leg kicks, Font could certainly edge three rounds on the cards.
Kuhn's pick: Money-line lean on Font. Over 4.5 rounds is already juiced, suggesting this fight goes the distance. There's much value to play, but the expectation is Font in a close decision.
In his last outing, we saw the legend Aldo get his second victory in a row with a unanimous decision over Pedro Munhoz. Many expected Munhoz's pressure and ground game to be too much for Aldo, but that was not the case. Aldo's calf kicks, striking output and overall boxing game proved to be the correct blueprint to get the job done. Unless Aldo surprises us all with a take-down early in the fight, I expect this to be a stand-up battle from start to finish.
Since 2018, Font has put together a four-fight win streak and continues to get better in each fight. After his last performance, Font showed us that he can go five rounds with a blistering pace that would give anyone trouble. As good as Aldo continues to be, I believe at this point it's Font's time to shine in this moment. Font will be the better boxer of the two, and if he can avoid the calf kicks of Aldo, I believe his output and precision will get the job done.
Parkers' pick: Winner Font (-140)
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Rafael Fiziev (-125) vs. Brad Riddell (+105)With the potential to be fight of the night, Fiziev vs. Riddell will be throwing down to see who is ready for the next level. Based on what we have seen so far, both are excellent strikers and extremely durable. Both have won their last four fights by decision, and I don't see this fight being any different here. Unless one of the two fades later in the fight, which has yet to happen, sit back and enjoy a three-round war.
Parker's pick: Fight goes the distance (-190)
Jimmy Crute (-175) vs. Jamahal Hill (+150)
"The Brute" Crute is returning from a leg injury stoppage against a former contender, and hopefully that experience taught him something about strategy. When he's unloading his weapons on the feet or on the ground, he's a force of nature that lives up to his nickname, leveraging a lifetime of martial arts training.
And while Hill is a crafty long-range striker, getting into a war against Crute could be ill-advised, as Crute has only needed a few clean strikes on average to drop prior opponents. Win or lose, in six UFC appearances to date, Crute has made it out of the first round only once and has never once made it to the final bell. His finishing potential is a huge threat to a less-seasoned grappler with less power on paper.
Kuhn's pick: Money-line play on Crute, who is a reasonably priced favorite at -200 or better. Consider a smaller play on Crute inside the distance at even money.
Jake Matthews (-180) vs. Jeremiah Wells (+155)
Wells exploded onto the scene in his last fight with a knockout win over Warlley Alves. What was so impressive about that win was the fact that Alves started getting the upper hand at the end of Round 1 due to the fading gas tank of Wells. However, at the beginning of Round 2, Wells landed a monster shot that put Alves to sleep. Wells is a well-rounded fighter, but his wild and reckless style, in my opinion, will not work against a high-IQ and well-rounded fighter like Mathews. As long as Mathews can weather the early storm, he should be able to control the narrative of the fight with his superior cardio and precise striking.
Parker's pick: Winner Matthews (-180)
Chris Gruetzemacher (-110) vs. Claudio Puelles (-110)
Puelles rides a three-fight win streak into his bout with Gruetzemacher. Puelles showed solid striking in his last fight against Jordan Leavitt, but what was more impressive was his ground game against a very talented ground specialist. Puelles should be better everywhere and has more tools to win against Gruetzemacher. Gruetzemacher showed true grit and toughness in his last win over Rafa Garcia, but he got dropped in Round 1 and was taken down multiple times throughout the fight. Against a better striker and grappler in Puelles, I don't see Gruetzemacher having any success in this fight.
Parker's pick: Winner Puelles (-110)
Alex Morono (-220) vs. Mickey Gall (+180)
Morono is another favorite worth backing. Morono has superior striking across the board and a BJJ black belt to protect against Gall's best weapon, which is his wrestling. And if the raw numbers aren't reason enough, it's worth noting that these two have had very different strengths of schedule, strongly favoring Morono.
Kuhn's pick: Money-line play on Morono or use him for a parlay.
