Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Ketlin Vieira vs. Miesha Tate
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThere has been lots of price movement for this week's main event. Ketlen Vieira opened as a clear betting favorite, then steady action on Miesha Tate flipped the odds. But only briefly, as Vieira has now resumed the role of favorite, however slightly. Odds could land anywhere come fight night, and it's because this is a tricky fight to predict.
MMA analysts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker are here to give you their best bets for UFC Fight Night.
Prelims start at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Women's bantamweight main event: Ketlin Vieira (-125) vs. Miesha Tate (+105)
Tale Of The Tape
| MIESHA TATE | KETLEN VIEIRA | |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | Women's bantamweight | Women's bantamweight |
| Age | 35 | 30 |
| Height | 66 | 68 |
| Reach | 69 | 71 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 183 | 89 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 1:4 | 0:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 28% | 20% |
| Head power accuracy | 30% | 32% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 68% | 75% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 97% | 99% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.76 | 0.50 |
| Takedown accuracy | 31% | 48% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 41 | 14 |
| Takedown defense | 51% | 93% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 60% | 76% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.43 | 0.21 |
Both women have strong grappling credentials, and both have spent a high portion of fight time on the ground. Both have generally been successful there, but Vieira owns the better control value, perhaps thanks to her excellent takedown defense. And if it stays standing, again, Vieira gets small edges in her pace and defense.
The biggest difference is that Vieira uses a much higher mix of power strikes. This could be a fatigue risk for a fighter entering her first five-round fight and who is accustomed to being much busier on the feet (average pace of strike attempts of 15 per minute versus 10 per minute for Tate), but perhaps the five-year youth advantage that Vieira will have can help.
The situation is made much murkier due to Tate's long layoff and getting a relatively soft opponent in her first fight back. But there are enough small edges for Vieira to support her, even as a slight favorite. It will be an interesting test for both women.
Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Vieira to win at near even odds or better.
Vieira is coming off the second loss of her career after losing by decision to Yana Kunitskaya in February. We saw Vieira fall victim to the output, pace and clinch game of Kunitskaya over the course of three rounds. If Vieira doesn't land early or get top position on the ground, we have seen there is a clear path to victory over her. Unfortunately for Vieira, she is fighting an opponent in Tate who has not only seen it all, but also is a terrible matchup stylistically for her. In her return fight against Marion Renau, we saw Miesha Tate 2.0. Tate's cardio was endless and she was able to keep a very solid pace throughout the contest. Tate will have the wrestling advantage here, and with her new precise and technical boxing she has worked on, it will only help her in setting up her takedowns on Vieira. Look for Tate to dictate the pace and eventually tire out Viera with her wrestling over the course of the fight.
Parkers' pick: Tate +105
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Michael Chiesa (+135) vs. Sean Brady (-160)Coming off his first loss since moving up to the welterweight division, Chiesa will be looking to get back on track against the highly touted prospect Brady. Chiesa will have to keep this fight in two different positions to get the win. The first position is against the cage. Chiesa will need to turn this fight into an ugly clinch game against the fence where he will have the advantage. The second position will have to be taking the fight to the floor and staying on top of Brady. I expect if this happens, Chiesa will be very conservative in either position to avoid making a mistake and getting submitted.
Brady, on the other hand, is coming off his first loss of his career, a defeat by KO to Dan Ige. I expect both fighters to be more concerned about getting back in the win column than how they are going to win. In both of these fighters' last four fights, three out of the four went over 2.5 rounds or to a decision.
Parker's pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-110)
Rani Yahya (-110) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (-110)
For a more affordable price, consider Brazilian submission ace Yahya, who might end up as a slight underdog. Yahya boasts some of the best grappling credentials on the card, with 21 submission victories and a decade of Octagon experience.
While his matchup with Kang could be considered another grappler's chess match, it's more likely that Kang will want to remain standing and use his size against Yahya on the feet, where the Brazilian is weakest. And yet, that's likely everyone's game plan when they face Yahya, but he still wins far more often than not. If he still has some grappling tricks at the age of 37, we should see them at some point against Kang, and a submission would send Yahya past Urijah Faber for the bantamweight division's most career submissions (currently tied at six).
Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Yahya, but consider his submission prop and also fight does not go the distance to hedge against a Kang knockout.
Taila Santos (-360) vs. Joanne Wood (+280)
Santos opened as a mild favorite over Wood but has since been steamed well past three-to-one odds. Being surprised by the line movement was eclipsed by the surprise that the numbers agree actually with that movement for the women's flyweight match.
Santos, significantly younger (28 to 35 for Wood), will likely be the aggressor to close the distance. She has controlled opponents in the clinch, and even more so on the ground, leading to more than half of all her Octagon time in a position of control. That could be the perfect antidote to Wood's busy long-distance kickboxing. If Santos is in control early on the ground, it will likely stay that way for three rounds.
Kuhn's pick: Over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance for parlays. The lean is toward Santos, but her line is getting inflated beyond value.
Santos is returning to the cage after her recent win over Roxanne Modafferi in September and, after winning her third fight in a row, is looking to climb the ranks with a win over Wood. Win or lose, in her last five fights, Santos has gone to a decision. I expect Santos to be better everywhere and control Wood throughout the fight the same way she did Modafferi. However, Wood has never been knocked out and Santos hasn't won by submission since 2015, so look for Santos to add another win by decision to her resume.
Parker's pick: Santos by decision (-150)
Rafa Garcia (-125) vs. Natan Levy (+105)
Each of Garcia's last four fights have gone to a decision. Garcia is a scrappy fighter who, even when being dominated, is extremely difficult to finish. His opponent, Levy, has won by decision in three of his last four fights. I don't see the result being much different, as long as Garcia can avoid being submitted by Levy. This should be a competitive fight that goes the distance.
Parker's pick: Fight goes the distance (-175)
