Best bets for New England-Tampa Bay
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
10/5/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele and Warren Sharp) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: New England -6
Total: 54.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent on New England
Steele: The New England offense is averaging 129 yards above what the Patriots' opponents usually allow, but the team is only 2-2 because its defense is allowing foes a league-worst 457 yards and 32 points per game. Tampa Bay has the NFL's No. 9 offense and No. 30 defense, so you can expect some points here. Last week Nick Folk missed two field goals for Tampa Bay but hit the winner against the Giants. The Patriots have played only one game on the road (also off a loss), and it was their best game of the season, a 36-20 victory over New Orleans. I like Tampa Bay's potential, and it will be high-scoring, but I can't see the Patriots dropping to 2-3, so they get the win. With Doug Martin off suspension at running back for Tampa Bay, I lean with the over, even at a ridiculously high number.
Pick: Lean to over 54
Sharp: In games that Tom Brady started, the Patriots were 84-0 when scoring 17-plus points and winning the turnover battle by at least a plus-2 margin ... until last Sunday against Carolina.
The problems with this defense start because it can't rush the passer (rank 29th) and can't cover, and thus the Patriots rank 32nd in pass defense efficiency, 32nd in total defense efficiency and 32nd in my custom early down success rate (EDSR) analytic. It will be very difficult to change those things in just three days after traveling on the road. While we might expect the Buccaneers to go slower and more run-heavy to keep Brady off the field, last week against the 31st-rated run defense of the New York Giants, Tampa Bay still went heavy passing on early downs because it recorded just a 33 percent success rate when running the ball.
ATS pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
26.5 completions by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
Brady is averaging 25.8 completions per game this year, and extending back to the start of last year dips the average slightly to 24.6. In that span, it gets lower on the road (24.3), and he's been over in only three of eight games. Of course, Brady's also 8-0 in those games with 21 touchdowns and zero picks, so it's not all bad.
Diving into the minutiae of Brady's home/road splits helps to a point, but Brady is as known a commodity as there is, and the Patriots' offense hasn't had the problems of its defense this year. So we have to learn more about the Buccaneers' defense -- a couple of big plays can equal the under, while sustained drives can help Brady hit the over. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed a league-high 28.7 completions per game this season against the Bears, Vikings and Giants. Of those, only 2.3 per game gained at least 20 yards, 24th in the league. Tampa Bay's completion percentage allowed (68 percent) ranks 25th, while its completion percentage allowed at least 20 yards downfield (30 percent) ranks 11th.
This is a defense that Brady can rack up completions against, and the chances of a blowout in either direction are very low -- if you've been anywhere near a television this week, you've heard the defense isn't Bill Belichick's most capable unit.
The play: Over
292.5 passing yards by Jameis Winston (O/U -110)
Did someone mention the Patriots' defense? Four days ago, it turned the previously sputtering Panthers offense into a juggernaut that dropped 33 points in Gillette Stadium. Through four games, New England has allowed more yards per game (457) than any other team in the league and any other defending Super Bowl champion in history. The Pats are 31st in scoring defense after leading the league a year ago, and have allowed 4.8 completions per game to gain at least 20 yards, 30th in the league. This would be troubling against any team, so the fact that it's Tampa Bay is really tough.
Why? Start with the premier big-play threat in the NFL. Since he joined the NFL in 2008, DeSean Jackson has 88 receptions that have gained at least 30 yards, well ahead of the rest of the league. In fact, the next two on the list are both out of the league (Calvin Johnson and Steve Smith), leaving Jackson 32 catches ahead of any active player. Teammate Mike Evans has 38 receptions of at least 20 yards downfield in his career, fifth most of any player. The 6-foot-5 Evans fits the profile of wide receivers who have hurt the Patriots this year -- they've allowed six different wideouts to gain at least 70 yards receiving this season, four of whom are at least 6-3. Four days just isn't enough to fix the problems the Patriots showed on Sunday.
The play: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
10/5/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele and Warren Sharp) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: New England -6
Total: 54.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent on New England
Steele: The New England offense is averaging 129 yards above what the Patriots' opponents usually allow, but the team is only 2-2 because its defense is allowing foes a league-worst 457 yards and 32 points per game. Tampa Bay has the NFL's No. 9 offense and No. 30 defense, so you can expect some points here. Last week Nick Folk missed two field goals for Tampa Bay but hit the winner against the Giants. The Patriots have played only one game on the road (also off a loss), and it was their best game of the season, a 36-20 victory over New Orleans. I like Tampa Bay's potential, and it will be high-scoring, but I can't see the Patriots dropping to 2-3, so they get the win. With Doug Martin off suspension at running back for Tampa Bay, I lean with the over, even at a ridiculously high number.
Pick: Lean to over 54
Sharp: In games that Tom Brady started, the Patriots were 84-0 when scoring 17-plus points and winning the turnover battle by at least a plus-2 margin ... until last Sunday against Carolina.
The problems with this defense start because it can't rush the passer (rank 29th) and can't cover, and thus the Patriots rank 32nd in pass defense efficiency, 32nd in total defense efficiency and 32nd in my custom early down success rate (EDSR) analytic. It will be very difficult to change those things in just three days after traveling on the road. While we might expect the Buccaneers to go slower and more run-heavy to keep Brady off the field, last week against the 31st-rated run defense of the New York Giants, Tampa Bay still went heavy passing on early downs because it recorded just a 33 percent success rate when running the ball.
ATS pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
26.5 completions by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
Brady is averaging 25.8 completions per game this year, and extending back to the start of last year dips the average slightly to 24.6. In that span, it gets lower on the road (24.3), and he's been over in only three of eight games. Of course, Brady's also 8-0 in those games with 21 touchdowns and zero picks, so it's not all bad.
Diving into the minutiae of Brady's home/road splits helps to a point, but Brady is as known a commodity as there is, and the Patriots' offense hasn't had the problems of its defense this year. So we have to learn more about the Buccaneers' defense -- a couple of big plays can equal the under, while sustained drives can help Brady hit the over. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed a league-high 28.7 completions per game this season against the Bears, Vikings and Giants. Of those, only 2.3 per game gained at least 20 yards, 24th in the league. Tampa Bay's completion percentage allowed (68 percent) ranks 25th, while its completion percentage allowed at least 20 yards downfield (30 percent) ranks 11th.
This is a defense that Brady can rack up completions against, and the chances of a blowout in either direction are very low -- if you've been anywhere near a television this week, you've heard the defense isn't Bill Belichick's most capable unit.
The play: Over
292.5 passing yards by Jameis Winston (O/U -110)
Did someone mention the Patriots' defense? Four days ago, it turned the previously sputtering Panthers offense into a juggernaut that dropped 33 points in Gillette Stadium. Through four games, New England has allowed more yards per game (457) than any other team in the league and any other defending Super Bowl champion in history. The Pats are 31st in scoring defense after leading the league a year ago, and have allowed 4.8 completions per game to gain at least 20 yards, 30th in the league. This would be troubling against any team, so the fact that it's Tampa Bay is really tough.
Why? Start with the premier big-play threat in the NFL. Since he joined the NFL in 2008, DeSean Jackson has 88 receptions that have gained at least 30 yards, well ahead of the rest of the league. In fact, the next two on the list are both out of the league (Calvin Johnson and Steve Smith), leaving Jackson 32 catches ahead of any active player. Teammate Mike Evans has 38 receptions of at least 20 yards downfield in his career, fifth most of any player. The 6-foot-5 Evans fits the profile of wide receivers who have hurt the Patriots this year -- they've allowed six different wideouts to gain at least 70 yards receiving this season, four of whom are at least 6-3. Four days just isn't enough to fix the problems the Patriots showed on Sunday.
The play: Over
