Best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit GC
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
PGA Tour golf is back and is coming off what turned out to be another close finish. Dustin Johnson emerged as the champion at The Travelers, finishing one shot ahead of Kevin Streelman.
The tour next heads to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Championship.
Which players are good bets, and which props are worth a look?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Patrick Reed (14-1; -125 Top 20 at DraftKings)
Bearman: If you had Reed in your matchup with Sergio Garcia last week, you were not happy after Round 1, being down six shots. But Reed quietly put together a solid final round, finished with a seven-birdie, one-bogey 64 on Sunday to climb up the leaderboard (and beat Garcia by a shot). He hit 13 of 14 fairways and 15 of 18 greens on Sunday, and if he continues that trend, you'll see him near the top at Detroit Country Club. He missed the cut at Harbour Town but finished tied for seventh at Colonial, won in Mexico and grabbed another top-10 at Torrey Pines before the break. Plus, he has something not many others have in the one-year history of the event: a top-5 finish here last year.
Reed (14-1; +185 Top 10)
Fallica: Reed has quietly put together a really good year. He won a WGC, lost in a playoff at Sentry TOC and has two other top-7 finishes, including at Colonial three weeks ago. Like Colonial, Detroit has bent greens, and the man who is fifth on tour in birdie average should roll a bunch in this week. After an opening-round 70 last week, Reed went 66-69-64 to finish in the top 25. He was fifth here last year, and in a field that has just 18 of the top 50 players in the world, Reed is one of the classiest players and could win the way Johnson did last week -- by outlasting some unpredictable and surprise names in the top 10.
Tyrrell Hatton (15-1; +200 Top 10)
Bearman: Two weeks ago at Harbour Town, I put Hatton (50-1) in the long shots section of this piece, as he hadn't played at the tour's restart at Colonial and was at a longer price than he should have been. He almost pulled off a win and rewarded prop bettors with a T-3 finish. Those 50-1 days are long gone, as Hatton leads the tour in shots gained: approach, tee-to-green and total and is second in SG: putting. Quite simply, no one has better stats in the 2019-20 season. As for results, Hatton has played in five official events this year (he had wrist surgery in the winter) and hasn't finished worse than T-14, with a win at Arnie's event, two T-6s and a T-3 at Harbour Town. I will be playing Hatton across the board this week.
Viktor Hovland (18-1; +130 vs. Webb Simpson)
Marks: Hovland's game has been on point since his return. He has finished in the top 25 each of the past three weeks and shot in the 60s all four days at TPC River Highlands. Hovland's putter has been on point, and he is scoring well on short par-4s. The rookie just broke into the top-50 world rankings and is on the rise.
Kevin Na (33-1; -125 vs. Brandt Snedeker at DK)
Fallica: Na finished T-5 last week at Travelers and has a pair of top-10 finishes in his past four starts. His putter and short game make him a threat this week as well. Snedeker's game has scuffed a bit since the restart, as he missed the cut at Harbour Town and finished T-41st last week. A super low number will win this event, and Na should make a lot of birdies.
Long shots
Doc Redman (50-1; +250 Top 20 at DK)
Bearman: With the field not as star-studded and Redman coming off a T-11 last week in the Travelers, you aren't getting the value that you normally get on Doc, who was 175-1 or longer in each of the first three tournaments back. ESPN Stats & Info's Mackenzie Kraemer points out that Redman has never been less than 80-1 in a non-alternate field event. However, you are getting a guy who has made the cut in all three events, finishing T-21, T-13 and T-11, far outperforming his odds. He's 17th in shots gained: approach, and if not for bad putting numbers (147th in SG: putting), he could have a few top-10s on his 2020 résumé. With only a one-year sample of how to play the Detroit Golf Club, bettors can do worse than picking last year's runner-up. Worth a flier with three top-21 finishes so far and a lower-tiered field, Redman is a safe bet for a T-20 in Detroit.
Snedeker (60-1, -125 over Brendon Todd; Snedeker +100 over Na)
Marks: To win in the Motor City, you need a hot putter and a top-notch sand game (there are 87 bunkers at this tour stop). Snedeker checks both boxes. Since 2019, he is top-10 in sand save percentage and 21st in strokes gained putting (he is especially solid on bent grass). Detroit Golf Club fits Snedeker's game to a tee; he finished T-5 in 2019 at the Donald Ross-designed course.
Brian Harman (70-1; 3-1 Top 20 at DK)
Bearman: One of my big golf handicapping lessons has been "don't give up on a guy after a missed cut." As much as you want to be mad that your bet didn't make the weekend, each event is a new chance. I used that with Simpson the week after he missed the cut at Colonial and was rewarded with a 25-1 win at Harbour Town. I had Harman in a lot of places last week, including this column, but he couldn't put it all together the first two days and joined the trunk slammers in leaving Connecticut early. Harman actually shot well enough to play the weekend (+3.2 SG tee-to-green), but he could not find success with the flat stick (-3.7 SG putting). I did a couple of double checks on the PGA Tour app when I saw that he missed from 21 inches and 23 inches -- and ended up missing the cut by two shots. It happens to all of us. I like the way he is swinging, and at 70-1 in a weaker field, I see him hanging around and getting a top-20 (3-1 value) with a long-shot chance to win.
Harold Varner III (60-1; 66-1 to lead after 1st Round at DK)
Kezirian: In the last six events, he's been fantastic tee-to-green, particularly on his approach shots. He has also been in the top five in strokes gained approach in two of his last three starts, including last week. His ballstriking is way too good for this number and he led the first round at the Charles Schwab; I hope he can do it again. Respected money drove his outright price down from 80-1 to 60-1. He will be a popular pick and it's easy to see why.
Wesley Bryan (150-1)
Kezirian: His game completely fell off a cliff in 2018, and he had shoulder surgery in 2019 that cost him the entire year. At his best, he's an elite approach player and a solid putter. He led the field in strokes gained approach last week. His driver is absolutely atrocious; in the last 34 events we have numbers for, he's lost strokes off the tee 33 times -- but I'm banking on that not mattering as much this week because it did not last year. That's why we are getting long odds.
Prop bets
Lucas Glover (-250 to make cut at DK)
Fallica: Glover has posted three straight top-25 finishes since the restart, and this course should appeal to him, as his tee-to-green game has resulted in a lot of birdies the past three weeks. A fourth straight made cut should be in the offering.
Harold Varner III (-120) over Kevin Kisner
Bearman: I mentioned earlier that with longer rough this year at the Detroit Golf Club, driving distance and accuracy will be important (SG: off tee), and Varner is 21st on tour there and 14th tee-to-green. He has been driving well and hitting greens, ranking 32nd in GIRs. He has had a good restart to the season, taking the first-round lead at Colonial with a 63 and having all four rounds in the 60s last week at TPC Cromwell. He missed the cut at Harbour Town after four bogeys in the final six holes on Friday. Kisner missed the cut the past two weeks, with only one round under par.
Bryson DeChambeau (-135 to finish Top 10; monitor live)
Bearman: I said last week that I did not love taking one of the co-favorites in Justin Thomas, and he made me pay with a bad missed cut. Rory McIlroy and DeChambeau were the two other co-favorites, finishing T-11 and T-6, respectively. If 6-1 is too short for your liking for an all-out win, take the -135 to finish in the top 10 and treat it like a head-to-head matchup, as there might not be a bigger lock. He has done it every week against much tougher fields, and not only is this a much weaker field than in the first three events back (only seven of the top-25 players), but he's also the only golfer with three top-10s since the return. Distance and accuracy off the tee (part of strokes gained: off tee metric) will be important in Detroit, as the club has grown the rough this year in attempt to make the course harder after last year's inaugural event was one of the easiest on tour. Well, DeChambeau is second on tour in SG: off tee and second in SG: total.
Maverick McNealy (+120 to finish in the Top 40 at DK; McNealy -137 vs. Wes Roach)
Marks: Players drive for show and putt for dough in Detroit. McNealy's putter is his best weapon in the bag, and it will keep him near the top of the leaderboard. McNealy could gain some ground in his push for rookie of the year with a better performance than those of Hovland, Scottie Scheffler and Will Gordon.
Sungjae Im (+135 to finish in Top 20)
Fallica: Last week Im made the cut on the number, and I would expect a better performance from him this week back on bentgrass (see T-10 at Colonial). Im finished 21st here last year, so any improvement cashes that top-20 ticket.
DeChambeau (+150 to finish in Top 5 at DK, -118 vs. Simpson)
Marks: The new and improved DeChambeau is playing otherworldly golf at the moment, with six straight top-10s. He has been so close to winning of late that it's bound to happen. DeChambeau is an incredible 46 under par the past three weeks (12 rounds).
Rickie Fowler (2-1 to miss the cut at DK)
Marks: Fowler is in a funk, possibly because of a swing change or the long layoff. Until he can prove that he can make a cut, orange will not be in my wardrobe.
Redman (3-1 to finish in the Top 10 at DK; Redman over Glover)
Marks: I loved Redman last week heading into the Travelers, where he finished T-11. I expect him to pick up where he left off. He's crushing his irons and moving up the board in strokes gained tee to green. Redman finished second in Detroit last season.
Erik van Rooyen (3-1 to finish in the Top 20 at DK; van Rooyen over Adam Hadwin)
Marks: van Rooyen looked good last weekend at the RBC Heritage, where he gained five strokes tee to green. He also finished T-21 at Harbour Town, thanks to some impressive ballstriking.
Rory Sabbatini (5-1 to finish in the Top 5 at DK; +110 vs. Fowler; +100 over JT Poston at DK)
Marks: Sabbatini has had a good restart, with a top-15 finish at Colonial and T-21 at Harbour Town. He's rested and ready to roll after skipping the Travelers last week. Sabbatini finished T-3 at last year's Rocket Mortgage.
Reed (33-1 to be first-round leader)
Bearman: As already noted, Reed was on fire Sunday, with 13 fairways and 15 greens hit. The hot finish and weaker field have me optimistic that he can jump to a hot start, so I will sprinkle some on 33-1 as first-round leader as well.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
PGA Tour golf is back and is coming off what turned out to be another close finish. Dustin Johnson emerged as the champion at The Travelers, finishing one shot ahead of Kevin Streelman.
The tour next heads to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Championship.
Which players are good bets, and which props are worth a look?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Patrick Reed (14-1; -125 Top 20 at DraftKings)
Bearman: If you had Reed in your matchup with Sergio Garcia last week, you were not happy after Round 1, being down six shots. But Reed quietly put together a solid final round, finished with a seven-birdie, one-bogey 64 on Sunday to climb up the leaderboard (and beat Garcia by a shot). He hit 13 of 14 fairways and 15 of 18 greens on Sunday, and if he continues that trend, you'll see him near the top at Detroit Country Club. He missed the cut at Harbour Town but finished tied for seventh at Colonial, won in Mexico and grabbed another top-10 at Torrey Pines before the break. Plus, he has something not many others have in the one-year history of the event: a top-5 finish here last year.
Reed (14-1; +185 Top 10)
Fallica: Reed has quietly put together a really good year. He won a WGC, lost in a playoff at Sentry TOC and has two other top-7 finishes, including at Colonial three weeks ago. Like Colonial, Detroit has bent greens, and the man who is fifth on tour in birdie average should roll a bunch in this week. After an opening-round 70 last week, Reed went 66-69-64 to finish in the top 25. He was fifth here last year, and in a field that has just 18 of the top 50 players in the world, Reed is one of the classiest players and could win the way Johnson did last week -- by outlasting some unpredictable and surprise names in the top 10.
Tyrrell Hatton (15-1; +200 Top 10)
Bearman: Two weeks ago at Harbour Town, I put Hatton (50-1) in the long shots section of this piece, as he hadn't played at the tour's restart at Colonial and was at a longer price than he should have been. He almost pulled off a win and rewarded prop bettors with a T-3 finish. Those 50-1 days are long gone, as Hatton leads the tour in shots gained: approach, tee-to-green and total and is second in SG: putting. Quite simply, no one has better stats in the 2019-20 season. As for results, Hatton has played in five official events this year (he had wrist surgery in the winter) and hasn't finished worse than T-14, with a win at Arnie's event, two T-6s and a T-3 at Harbour Town. I will be playing Hatton across the board this week.
Viktor Hovland (18-1; +130 vs. Webb Simpson)
Marks: Hovland's game has been on point since his return. He has finished in the top 25 each of the past three weeks and shot in the 60s all four days at TPC River Highlands. Hovland's putter has been on point, and he is scoring well on short par-4s. The rookie just broke into the top-50 world rankings and is on the rise.
Kevin Na (33-1; -125 vs. Brandt Snedeker at DK)
Fallica: Na finished T-5 last week at Travelers and has a pair of top-10 finishes in his past four starts. His putter and short game make him a threat this week as well. Snedeker's game has scuffed a bit since the restart, as he missed the cut at Harbour Town and finished T-41st last week. A super low number will win this event, and Na should make a lot of birdies.
Long shots
Doc Redman (50-1; +250 Top 20 at DK)
Bearman: With the field not as star-studded and Redman coming off a T-11 last week in the Travelers, you aren't getting the value that you normally get on Doc, who was 175-1 or longer in each of the first three tournaments back. ESPN Stats & Info's Mackenzie Kraemer points out that Redman has never been less than 80-1 in a non-alternate field event. However, you are getting a guy who has made the cut in all three events, finishing T-21, T-13 and T-11, far outperforming his odds. He's 17th in shots gained: approach, and if not for bad putting numbers (147th in SG: putting), he could have a few top-10s on his 2020 résumé. With only a one-year sample of how to play the Detroit Golf Club, bettors can do worse than picking last year's runner-up. Worth a flier with three top-21 finishes so far and a lower-tiered field, Redman is a safe bet for a T-20 in Detroit.
Snedeker (60-1, -125 over Brendon Todd; Snedeker +100 over Na)
Marks: To win in the Motor City, you need a hot putter and a top-notch sand game (there are 87 bunkers at this tour stop). Snedeker checks both boxes. Since 2019, he is top-10 in sand save percentage and 21st in strokes gained putting (he is especially solid on bent grass). Detroit Golf Club fits Snedeker's game to a tee; he finished T-5 in 2019 at the Donald Ross-designed course.
Brian Harman (70-1; 3-1 Top 20 at DK)
Bearman: One of my big golf handicapping lessons has been "don't give up on a guy after a missed cut." As much as you want to be mad that your bet didn't make the weekend, each event is a new chance. I used that with Simpson the week after he missed the cut at Colonial and was rewarded with a 25-1 win at Harbour Town. I had Harman in a lot of places last week, including this column, but he couldn't put it all together the first two days and joined the trunk slammers in leaving Connecticut early. Harman actually shot well enough to play the weekend (+3.2 SG tee-to-green), but he could not find success with the flat stick (-3.7 SG putting). I did a couple of double checks on the PGA Tour app when I saw that he missed from 21 inches and 23 inches -- and ended up missing the cut by two shots. It happens to all of us. I like the way he is swinging, and at 70-1 in a weaker field, I see him hanging around and getting a top-20 (3-1 value) with a long-shot chance to win.
Harold Varner III (60-1; 66-1 to lead after 1st Round at DK)
Kezirian: In the last six events, he's been fantastic tee-to-green, particularly on his approach shots. He has also been in the top five in strokes gained approach in two of his last three starts, including last week. His ballstriking is way too good for this number and he led the first round at the Charles Schwab; I hope he can do it again. Respected money drove his outright price down from 80-1 to 60-1. He will be a popular pick and it's easy to see why.
Wesley Bryan (150-1)
Kezirian: His game completely fell off a cliff in 2018, and he had shoulder surgery in 2019 that cost him the entire year. At his best, he's an elite approach player and a solid putter. He led the field in strokes gained approach last week. His driver is absolutely atrocious; in the last 34 events we have numbers for, he's lost strokes off the tee 33 times -- but I'm banking on that not mattering as much this week because it did not last year. That's why we are getting long odds.
Prop bets
Lucas Glover (-250 to make cut at DK)
Fallica: Glover has posted three straight top-25 finishes since the restart, and this course should appeal to him, as his tee-to-green game has resulted in a lot of birdies the past three weeks. A fourth straight made cut should be in the offering.
Harold Varner III (-120) over Kevin Kisner
Bearman: I mentioned earlier that with longer rough this year at the Detroit Golf Club, driving distance and accuracy will be important (SG: off tee), and Varner is 21st on tour there and 14th tee-to-green. He has been driving well and hitting greens, ranking 32nd in GIRs. He has had a good restart to the season, taking the first-round lead at Colonial with a 63 and having all four rounds in the 60s last week at TPC Cromwell. He missed the cut at Harbour Town after four bogeys in the final six holes on Friday. Kisner missed the cut the past two weeks, with only one round under par.
Bryson DeChambeau (-135 to finish Top 10; monitor live)
Bearman: I said last week that I did not love taking one of the co-favorites in Justin Thomas, and he made me pay with a bad missed cut. Rory McIlroy and DeChambeau were the two other co-favorites, finishing T-11 and T-6, respectively. If 6-1 is too short for your liking for an all-out win, take the -135 to finish in the top 10 and treat it like a head-to-head matchup, as there might not be a bigger lock. He has done it every week against much tougher fields, and not only is this a much weaker field than in the first three events back (only seven of the top-25 players), but he's also the only golfer with three top-10s since the return. Distance and accuracy off the tee (part of strokes gained: off tee metric) will be important in Detroit, as the club has grown the rough this year in attempt to make the course harder after last year's inaugural event was one of the easiest on tour. Well, DeChambeau is second on tour in SG: off tee and second in SG: total.
Maverick McNealy (+120 to finish in the Top 40 at DK; McNealy -137 vs. Wes Roach)
Marks: Players drive for show and putt for dough in Detroit. McNealy's putter is his best weapon in the bag, and it will keep him near the top of the leaderboard. McNealy could gain some ground in his push for rookie of the year with a better performance than those of Hovland, Scottie Scheffler and Will Gordon.
Sungjae Im (+135 to finish in Top 20)
Fallica: Last week Im made the cut on the number, and I would expect a better performance from him this week back on bentgrass (see T-10 at Colonial). Im finished 21st here last year, so any improvement cashes that top-20 ticket.
DeChambeau (+150 to finish in Top 5 at DK, -118 vs. Simpson)
Marks: The new and improved DeChambeau is playing otherworldly golf at the moment, with six straight top-10s. He has been so close to winning of late that it's bound to happen. DeChambeau is an incredible 46 under par the past three weeks (12 rounds).
Rickie Fowler (2-1 to miss the cut at DK)
Marks: Fowler is in a funk, possibly because of a swing change or the long layoff. Until he can prove that he can make a cut, orange will not be in my wardrobe.
Redman (3-1 to finish in the Top 10 at DK; Redman over Glover)
Marks: I loved Redman last week heading into the Travelers, where he finished T-11. I expect him to pick up where he left off. He's crushing his irons and moving up the board in strokes gained tee to green. Redman finished second in Detroit last season.
Erik van Rooyen (3-1 to finish in the Top 20 at DK; van Rooyen over Adam Hadwin)
Marks: van Rooyen looked good last weekend at the RBC Heritage, where he gained five strokes tee to green. He also finished T-21 at Harbour Town, thanks to some impressive ballstriking.
Rory Sabbatini (5-1 to finish in the Top 5 at DK; +110 vs. Fowler; +100 over JT Poston at DK)
Marks: Sabbatini has had a good restart, with a top-15 finish at Colonial and T-21 at Harbour Town. He's rested and ready to roll after skipping the Travelers last week. Sabbatini finished T-3 at last year's Rocket Mortgage.
Reed (33-1 to be first-round leader)
Bearman: As already noted, Reed was on fire Sunday, with 13 fairways and 15 greens hit. The hot finish and weaker field have me optimistic that he can jump to a hot start, so I will sprinkle some on 33-1 as first-round leader as well.
