Best bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial CC
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After Phil Mickelson pulled off the improbable at the PGA Championship last week, the tour returns to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
It won't be able to duplicate the drama of Lefty's victory, but another strong field is set to tee it up at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, where Daniel Berger returns to defend his title.
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Joe Fortenbaugh, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Collin Morikawa 14-1
Marks: Morikawa looked good last week, finishing T-8 at the PGA Championship, and this is a course that fits his game to a tee. He lost here last year after lipping out a putt in a incredible playoff to Daniel Berger.
Other than putting, his game game checks all the boxes. However, bentgrass is his surface of choice. He is first in shots gained on approach, first in greens in regulation and sixth in driving accuracy this season.
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I also like him with Jordan Spieth in double chance (either wins) at +550 and with Abraham Ancer (+750). And I'm taking him to go 1-2 with Spieth at 160-1 (at Draftkings) and Ancer at 250-1 (at DK).
Daniel Berger 18-1; top-10 finish (+225)
Bearman: Berger was a disappointment at the PGA Championship, mostly due to a horrible opening-round 79. He rallied to make cut with a great Friday but played poorly over the weekend (74-76). I guess it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise, as Berger doesn't have a top 10 at a major since 2018.
Recent form and metrics are why we went with the Florida native last week and why we are still rolling with Colonial's defending champion again this week. This is not a major, and it's a course that fits Berger's game perfectly. We saw that last year when he took down Morikawa in a playoff after holding off Bryson DeChambeau. In winning last year's return-to-golf event, Berger led the field in total strokes gained, was second in strokes gained tee to green, seventh in ball striking and on approach and 10th in putting. Berger has continued that excellence in the year since, ranking in the top 25 on tour off the tee, on approach, putting and in total strokes gained, while ranking 34th in strokes gained tee to green.
He has 12 top 10s, including two wins in his last 26 events. He should record another top 10 here and, at 18-1, has a good shot at fifth PGA Tour win. Colonial Country Club tends to be won by those who have been there before, so why not last year's winner?
Abraham Ancer 20-1; top-10 finish (+188)
Bearman: One guy in the PGA Championship field shot a 65 on Sunday; his name was not Phil, Brooks or Louie. Abe Ancer finished strong at the Ocean Course on Sunday, with seven birdies and zero bogeys on the card. If it wasn't for five bogeys in the final six holes on Saturday, Ancer might have challenged Mickelson for the big trophy.
This past weekend was not a fluke either. The eighth-place finish marked the third consecutive top 10 for Ancer, who finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy at the Wells Fargo and fifth the week before at the Valspar. Going back further, he has finished no worse than T-26 in his last nine events.
Did I mention he is second on the tour in driving accuracy, hitting close to 73% of his fairways, which has led to nearly 70% of greens in regulation (12th-best on tour). He finished 14th last year here after an opening 64. Sign me up. I also have him at 33-1 to be the first-round leader.
Scottie Scheffler 25-1; top-10 finish (+250)
Fallica: I thought Scheffler would put together a solid week at Kiawah and he did. He was a nonfactor in his first trip to Colonial, but as I mentioned last week, his metrics have been much better than his results, but the T-8 last week could catapult a player who is top 10 on tour in birdie average towards a string of very good results.
Corey Conners 25-1; top-10 finish (+200); top-20 finish (-110)
Bearman: Death, taxes and me picking Corey Conners. The Canadian made me look smart last Thursday after bolting out to lead for most of the first round. But a poor Friday on the back nine dropped him back, and while he survived the weekend, late bogeys on Sunday cost us another top 10. He did cash us a top 20, his 12th of the season.
This course lines up for great ball-strikers, and Conners has been in that mix for the last 18 months. He's in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, on approach and tee to green, and is 10th on tour in driving accuracy and eighth in hitting greens. He also has two top 20s in three appearances at the Colonial, ranking third in ball-striking, fifth in strokes gained tee to green and sixth on approach over those 12 rounds.
Conners was in the mix at a much tougher course and vs. a tough field last week and I expect him to contend this week in Fort Worth.
Sungjae Im 28-1; top-10 finish (+275)
Fallica: I wasn't high on Im's chances last week, but he put together a solid week and finished T-17. Now it's back to the site of a T-10 finish last time around for one of the better drivers around. He should be in position to make a lot of birdies and post at least another top-20 finish.
Gary Woodland 45-1; top-10 finish (+400)
Fallica: Woodland was lurking on the leaderboard Sunday but ultimately was done in by a 77 which resulted in him falling from the top 5 to a T-38 finish. Still, one has to be encouraged from what we've seen in recent weeks from Woodland, who finished fifth at Quail Hollow, sixth at Valero and was ninth here a year ago.
Props
Jordan Spieth top-5 finish (+275)
Bearman: Regular readers of this column know I don't often take the favorite as the value is often too low with so many variables on any given week. However, it's hard to argue with anyone taking Spieth this week, even at 10-1. The Texas native has a great combination of good course history, good recent form and he plays well on Texas courses. In eight previous appearances at Colonial, Spieth has six top-10s, including a T-2, win, T-2 run from 2015-17.
So far this season, he has won in San Antonio and finished T-9 in both the match play in Austin and the Bryon Nelson two weeks ago. His $2.9 million won in eight appearances is most in the last 10 years.
However, accuracy off the drive is what worries me here and prevents me from taking Spieth to win. He is 137th in shots gained off the tee, which is a combination of driving distance and accuracy. He is 82nd on tour in distance and 185th in accuracy, hitting the fairway only 54% of the time. After last week's major, his greens in regulation percentage dropped to 65.2, 99th on tour.
Can he win? Sure, he's done it before and is always in contention here. But until he starts hitting fairways more consistently, I am going to play the top 5s and 10s (where I have him at +125) and not pick him to win at a low price.
Marks: He's a local guy who loves Colonial. Spieth has won here before and finished as the bridesmaid twice in his career. He has never missed the cut on this track and has six top 10s. He is 20th on approach and 14th in par-4 efficiency (400-450 yards) this season.
Tony Finau top-5 finish (+400); top-10 finish (+188)
Bearman: I am going to go on record as saying this might be the time to cash a Finau-to-win ticket. I am not because, well, I won't bet him to win until he shows me he can, and that hasn't happened in a long time. But a week after a major with a less packed field with less attention could be the recipe for Finau. He finished second here two years ago and held the lead after 18 holes. It's one of eight runner-up finishes since his last win.
We all know he has the game to get it done, but will he? Ranking 166th on tour in driving accuracy and 76th in greens in regulation doesn't give us an optimistic outlook, but past success at this course, as well as a strong finish at the PGA (-3 on the weekend), is the reason for the play here.
Ancer top-5 finish (+400)
Marks: Ancer is another golfer who comes in hot, as he finished T-8 last week at the PGA Championship after shooting a final-round 65. He finished T-14 here last year, and is second in driving accuracy, 23rd in strokes gained off the tee, 12th in greens in regulation, fourth in par-4 efficiency and 33rd on approach this season.
Spieth top-10 finish (+125)
Fallica: A win and six top 10s here make this an auto-play. In Spieth's last 10 events, he has posted a win, a pair of third-place finishes, a pair of fourth-place finishes and two more top 10s. This is the Spieth we all came to know when he was winning and competing in majors.
Morikawa top-10 finish (+138)
Fallica: Last year's runner-up should be throwing darts into these greens. He has posted consecutive top 10s in individual stroke play events and there hasn't been anyone better tee to green on tour this year.
Conners top-10 finish (+210)
Fallica: Conners hung around last week for another top 20, which has been commonplace for him this year. One, well, two of the biggest reasons why is his play in Rounds 1 and 4, where he ranks 22nd and 18th respectively in scoring average. If you start well and finish well, odds are you are gonna cash some big checks. He has a top 10 and a pair of top 20s here and has some of the best strokes gained numbers out there.
Conners top-10 finish (+210); top Canadian (-162)
Marks: Seeing a common thread here? Conners is another golfer I'm banking on this week after a solid showing at the PGA (T-17). He is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, which is one of the critical metrics needed to win on this track. He also is tied for fourth on approach, is eighth in greens in regulation, ninth in par-4 efficiency, 10th in driving accuracy and ninth in shots gained off the tee this season. I also like him in a tournament matchup over Finau (-110 DK)
Jason Kokrak top-10 finish (+400); top-20 finish (+175)
Fallica: Kokrak's putter has been behind a season which has seen him go T-9, T-8, T-9, T-13 in the last four individual stroke play events that weren't majors. He was third here last year and should find himself in position for another top 10 this week.
Will Zalatoris top-20 finish (-110)
Marks: If Zalatoris wasn't playing Colonial for the first time, I may have picked him to win. This is a course where knowledge and experience is key. He is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, which will easily keep him within the top 20. He is second on approach, 13th in greens in regulation, 21st in par-4 efficiency and 24th in driving distance this season.
Joaquin Niemann top-20 finish (+120)
Marks: Niemann is playing great golf this season and has made the cut in each of his last 19 starts. He has also made the cut all three times he has teed it up at Colonial. Putting on bentgrass is one of his specialties, and he is 34th on approach, 14th in greens in regulation, 22nd in par-4 efficiency, 10th in strokes gained off the tee, and T-7 in driving distance this season.
Justin Rose top-20 finish (+138)
Bearman: Rose had a great finish to weekend, carding a 5-under 67 on Sunday -- and that included a double-bogey. The last time he did well (the first three rounds at the Masters), he followed it up with a T-11 in New Orleans. I picked him the next week at the Valspar, where he missed the cut badly. Then came last week's PGA Championship, a T-8 finish.
I am not sure if Rose is totally back from a bad couple of months and a sore back, but he did win this event in 2018 and finished T-3rd last season. That's enough for me to take a flier on him to finish in the top 20 as he continues to get his game back into shape.
Ryan Palmer top-20 finish (+175)
Bearman: Nothing cures a bad week like a familiar course. After missing the cut at the PGA, Palmer heads to Colonial, where he is a member, for his 18th appearance. He has 12 made cuts and has four top 10s in the previous 17. That includes a T-6 in 2019. His recent form isn't stellar, but he does have a couple of top 20s, including a T-2 at Torrey Pines, on his card for the last few months. I'm not looking for a win here, just a top 20 at a course he knows as well as anyone.
Rose top European finisher (+320)
Marks: Rose has had great success on this track, winning it by three strokes the first time he played Colonial, and also sporting a top-3 finish last year. His putter is hot right now and he excels on bentgrass. He always gains strokes in putting at this tournament.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
After Phil Mickelson pulled off the improbable at the PGA Championship last week, the tour returns to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
It won't be able to duplicate the drama of Lefty's victory, but another strong field is set to tee it up at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, where Daniel Berger returns to defend his title.
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Joe Fortenbaugh, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Collin Morikawa 14-1
Marks: Morikawa looked good last week, finishing T-8 at the PGA Championship, and this is a course that fits his game to a tee. He lost here last year after lipping out a putt in a incredible playoff to Daniel Berger.
Other than putting, his game game checks all the boxes. However, bentgrass is his surface of choice. He is first in shots gained on approach, first in greens in regulation and sixth in driving accuracy this season.
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I also like him with Jordan Spieth in double chance (either wins) at +550 and with Abraham Ancer (+750). And I'm taking him to go 1-2 with Spieth at 160-1 (at Draftkings) and Ancer at 250-1 (at DK).
Daniel Berger 18-1; top-10 finish (+225)
Bearman: Berger was a disappointment at the PGA Championship, mostly due to a horrible opening-round 79. He rallied to make cut with a great Friday but played poorly over the weekend (74-76). I guess it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise, as Berger doesn't have a top 10 at a major since 2018.
Recent form and metrics are why we went with the Florida native last week and why we are still rolling with Colonial's defending champion again this week. This is not a major, and it's a course that fits Berger's game perfectly. We saw that last year when he took down Morikawa in a playoff after holding off Bryson DeChambeau. In winning last year's return-to-golf event, Berger led the field in total strokes gained, was second in strokes gained tee to green, seventh in ball striking and on approach and 10th in putting. Berger has continued that excellence in the year since, ranking in the top 25 on tour off the tee, on approach, putting and in total strokes gained, while ranking 34th in strokes gained tee to green.
He has 12 top 10s, including two wins in his last 26 events. He should record another top 10 here and, at 18-1, has a good shot at fifth PGA Tour win. Colonial Country Club tends to be won by those who have been there before, so why not last year's winner?
Abraham Ancer 20-1; top-10 finish (+188)
Bearman: One guy in the PGA Championship field shot a 65 on Sunday; his name was not Phil, Brooks or Louie. Abe Ancer finished strong at the Ocean Course on Sunday, with seven birdies and zero bogeys on the card. If it wasn't for five bogeys in the final six holes on Saturday, Ancer might have challenged Mickelson for the big trophy.
This past weekend was not a fluke either. The eighth-place finish marked the third consecutive top 10 for Ancer, who finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy at the Wells Fargo and fifth the week before at the Valspar. Going back further, he has finished no worse than T-26 in his last nine events.
Did I mention he is second on the tour in driving accuracy, hitting close to 73% of his fairways, which has led to nearly 70% of greens in regulation (12th-best on tour). He finished 14th last year here after an opening 64. Sign me up. I also have him at 33-1 to be the first-round leader.
Scottie Scheffler 25-1; top-10 finish (+250)
Fallica: I thought Scheffler would put together a solid week at Kiawah and he did. He was a nonfactor in his first trip to Colonial, but as I mentioned last week, his metrics have been much better than his results, but the T-8 last week could catapult a player who is top 10 on tour in birdie average towards a string of very good results.
Corey Conners 25-1; top-10 finish (+200); top-20 finish (-110)
Bearman: Death, taxes and me picking Corey Conners. The Canadian made me look smart last Thursday after bolting out to lead for most of the first round. But a poor Friday on the back nine dropped him back, and while he survived the weekend, late bogeys on Sunday cost us another top 10. He did cash us a top 20, his 12th of the season.
This course lines up for great ball-strikers, and Conners has been in that mix for the last 18 months. He's in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, on approach and tee to green, and is 10th on tour in driving accuracy and eighth in hitting greens. He also has two top 20s in three appearances at the Colonial, ranking third in ball-striking, fifth in strokes gained tee to green and sixth on approach over those 12 rounds.
Conners was in the mix at a much tougher course and vs. a tough field last week and I expect him to contend this week in Fort Worth.
Sungjae Im 28-1; top-10 finish (+275)
Fallica: I wasn't high on Im's chances last week, but he put together a solid week and finished T-17. Now it's back to the site of a T-10 finish last time around for one of the better drivers around. He should be in position to make a lot of birdies and post at least another top-20 finish.
Gary Woodland 45-1; top-10 finish (+400)
Fallica: Woodland was lurking on the leaderboard Sunday but ultimately was done in by a 77 which resulted in him falling from the top 5 to a T-38 finish. Still, one has to be encouraged from what we've seen in recent weeks from Woodland, who finished fifth at Quail Hollow, sixth at Valero and was ninth here a year ago.
Props
Jordan Spieth top-5 finish (+275)
Bearman: Regular readers of this column know I don't often take the favorite as the value is often too low with so many variables on any given week. However, it's hard to argue with anyone taking Spieth this week, even at 10-1. The Texas native has a great combination of good course history, good recent form and he plays well on Texas courses. In eight previous appearances at Colonial, Spieth has six top-10s, including a T-2, win, T-2 run from 2015-17.
So far this season, he has won in San Antonio and finished T-9 in both the match play in Austin and the Bryon Nelson two weeks ago. His $2.9 million won in eight appearances is most in the last 10 years.
However, accuracy off the drive is what worries me here and prevents me from taking Spieth to win. He is 137th in shots gained off the tee, which is a combination of driving distance and accuracy. He is 82nd on tour in distance and 185th in accuracy, hitting the fairway only 54% of the time. After last week's major, his greens in regulation percentage dropped to 65.2, 99th on tour.
Can he win? Sure, he's done it before and is always in contention here. But until he starts hitting fairways more consistently, I am going to play the top 5s and 10s (where I have him at +125) and not pick him to win at a low price.
Marks: He's a local guy who loves Colonial. Spieth has won here before and finished as the bridesmaid twice in his career. He has never missed the cut on this track and has six top 10s. He is 20th on approach and 14th in par-4 efficiency (400-450 yards) this season.
Tony Finau top-5 finish (+400); top-10 finish (+188)
Bearman: I am going to go on record as saying this might be the time to cash a Finau-to-win ticket. I am not because, well, I won't bet him to win until he shows me he can, and that hasn't happened in a long time. But a week after a major with a less packed field with less attention could be the recipe for Finau. He finished second here two years ago and held the lead after 18 holes. It's one of eight runner-up finishes since his last win.
We all know he has the game to get it done, but will he? Ranking 166th on tour in driving accuracy and 76th in greens in regulation doesn't give us an optimistic outlook, but past success at this course, as well as a strong finish at the PGA (-3 on the weekend), is the reason for the play here.
Ancer top-5 finish (+400)
Marks: Ancer is another golfer who comes in hot, as he finished T-8 last week at the PGA Championship after shooting a final-round 65. He finished T-14 here last year, and is second in driving accuracy, 23rd in strokes gained off the tee, 12th in greens in regulation, fourth in par-4 efficiency and 33rd on approach this season.
Spieth top-10 finish (+125)
Fallica: A win and six top 10s here make this an auto-play. In Spieth's last 10 events, he has posted a win, a pair of third-place finishes, a pair of fourth-place finishes and two more top 10s. This is the Spieth we all came to know when he was winning and competing in majors.
Morikawa top-10 finish (+138)
Fallica: Last year's runner-up should be throwing darts into these greens. He has posted consecutive top 10s in individual stroke play events and there hasn't been anyone better tee to green on tour this year.
Conners top-10 finish (+210)
Fallica: Conners hung around last week for another top 20, which has been commonplace for him this year. One, well, two of the biggest reasons why is his play in Rounds 1 and 4, where he ranks 22nd and 18th respectively in scoring average. If you start well and finish well, odds are you are gonna cash some big checks. He has a top 10 and a pair of top 20s here and has some of the best strokes gained numbers out there.
Conners top-10 finish (+210); top Canadian (-162)
Marks: Seeing a common thread here? Conners is another golfer I'm banking on this week after a solid showing at the PGA (T-17). He is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, which is one of the critical metrics needed to win on this track. He also is tied for fourth on approach, is eighth in greens in regulation, ninth in par-4 efficiency, 10th in driving accuracy and ninth in shots gained off the tee this season. I also like him in a tournament matchup over Finau (-110 DK)
Jason Kokrak top-10 finish (+400); top-20 finish (+175)
Fallica: Kokrak's putter has been behind a season which has seen him go T-9, T-8, T-9, T-13 in the last four individual stroke play events that weren't majors. He was third here last year and should find himself in position for another top 10 this week.
Will Zalatoris top-20 finish (-110)
Marks: If Zalatoris wasn't playing Colonial for the first time, I may have picked him to win. This is a course where knowledge and experience is key. He is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, which will easily keep him within the top 20. He is second on approach, 13th in greens in regulation, 21st in par-4 efficiency and 24th in driving distance this season.
Joaquin Niemann top-20 finish (+120)
Marks: Niemann is playing great golf this season and has made the cut in each of his last 19 starts. He has also made the cut all three times he has teed it up at Colonial. Putting on bentgrass is one of his specialties, and he is 34th on approach, 14th in greens in regulation, 22nd in par-4 efficiency, 10th in strokes gained off the tee, and T-7 in driving distance this season.
Justin Rose top-20 finish (+138)
Bearman: Rose had a great finish to weekend, carding a 5-under 67 on Sunday -- and that included a double-bogey. The last time he did well (the first three rounds at the Masters), he followed it up with a T-11 in New Orleans. I picked him the next week at the Valspar, where he missed the cut badly. Then came last week's PGA Championship, a T-8 finish.
I am not sure if Rose is totally back from a bad couple of months and a sore back, but he did win this event in 2018 and finished T-3rd last season. That's enough for me to take a flier on him to finish in the top 20 as he continues to get his game back into shape.
Ryan Palmer top-20 finish (+175)
Bearman: Nothing cures a bad week like a familiar course. After missing the cut at the PGA, Palmer heads to Colonial, where he is a member, for his 18th appearance. He has 12 made cuts and has four top 10s in the previous 17. That includes a T-6 in 2019. His recent form isn't stellar, but he does have a couple of top 20s, including a T-2 at Torrey Pines, on his card for the last few months. I'm not looking for a win here, just a top 20 at a course he knows as well as anyone.
Rose top European finisher (+320)
Marks: Rose has had great success on this track, winning it by three strokes the first time he played Colonial, and also sporting a top-3 finish last year. His putter is hot right now and he excels on bentgrass. He always gains strokes in putting at this tournament.
