[h=1]Best bets for the 2021 MLB season[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Baseball season is upon us, and there are betting opportunities galore.
From World Series bets to win totals to MVP and more, we went through it all to find our best picks heading into the season.
Some things to keep in mind: The ball won't be as juiced, there aren't the expanded playoffs we had last year, and doubleheaders will be seven-inning games.
Without further ado, here are our best bets for the upcoming season featuring many teams around the league and searchable by division below.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
[h=2]AL East[/h]
[h=3]New York Yankees[/h][h=3]-200 to win AL East[/h]
You're not going to get rich laying juice for season bets. After all, sports are unpredictable and baseball is as wacky as it can get. If the juice was -250, I would pass, but -200 is low enough for me to pull the trigger. The Red Sox are not really a threat, and let's not dignify the Orioles, so this is about outlasting the Rays and Blue Jays. Yes, Tampa won the division in 2020, but that was a 60-game season. A larger sample size produces a truer outcome.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Let's start with the obvious: The lineup is loaded. The Yankees led the American League in runs and OPS last year, despite enduring significant injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. I realize injuries are part of sports and Stanton battles seemingly injuries on an annual basis so we can expect a DL stint this season. However, New York can withstand more setbacks than other teams; that's the luxury of their payroll. I also expect Gleyber Torres and Garry Sanchez to bounce back this year.
For me, the key is the starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is the true ace, and they added Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Domingo German and Luis Severino. Kluber and Taillon are coming off injuries, but things look good so far in spring training. This was their biggest concern in 2020, and the Yanks addressed it. Anything can happen, but I will take my chances with this squad and a front office that's always willing to make the necessary moves. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h][h=3]Bo Bichette 25-1 to lead MLB in hits[/h]Bichette got everything you want in a hit king. Good bat-to-ball skills. Strong exit velocity. Low walk rate. Tons of at-bats. If not this year, Bichette will win one of these soon. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h][h=3]Over 86 wins[/h]
By now we all know the drill. The Rays are underestimated and surprise many by making a playoff run. That's their recipe and why have they surpassed their season win total in four straight years. I think they make it five straight and build off last year's World Series appearance. Yes, they did trade away stud pitcher Blake Snell, but Chris Archer returns after missing all of last season with an injury. Rich Hill could be a wild card for the staff, but given the franchise's willingness to go to the bullpen, he might turn out to be a nice addition.
As for the lineup, Randy Arozarena will play the entire season and Tampa also has plenty of bats to compete in the playoff race. With the Orioles and Red Sox in rebuilding mode, the Rays are the defending division champs and can give the Yanks a run for the division. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Arozarena 50-1 to win American League MVP[/h]
What if he is the real deal? What if this postseason sensation is actually a fantastic player and a legitimate MVP candidate? A 30-30 season is doable, and I expect the Rays to contend for a playoff spot. For Mike Trout (+200) not to win the award, another player has to post impressive numbers for a playoff team and the Angels have to miss the postseason. That's a lot to ask, so I need something like 50-1 for me to bite. Plus, he's electrifying and can move the needle, which always helps. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Brandon Lowe 80-1 to win American League MVP[/h]Sorry, Doug, but if there's a good MVP value on this team, it's Lowe, who was the first-half MVP in the AL last season. He's prone to hot-and-cold spurts, but when he's locked in, there are few better. And at 80-1 when Wander Franco, who won't be with the Rays for a good while, is at 60-1? Please. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles[/h][h=3]Under 64 wins[/h]What can I say about this team other than that they are terrible? Fan Graphs gives Baltimore a 0% chance to make the playoffs, which seems pretty ridiculous when you think about it. The AL East features contenders in the Yankees and Rays, with the Blue Jays and Red Sox expected to play close to .500 ball. The Orioles went 25-35 last year, which is a pace of 67.6 wins over a full season. That's impressive, but I am focusing on larger sample sizes.
Baltimore's best hitter is probably Trey Mancini or Anthony Santander. Even if the lineup delivers at times, the pitching is just ridiculously awful. Ace John Means is decent, but Matt Harvey is the No. 2 starter. I could go on and on about guys you have never heard of, but what's the point? Their ceiling is probably 70 wins and their floor is likely 47 wins, which is what they mustered in 2018 (54 in 2019). The 63.5 feels too high. -- Doug Kezirian
Their record over the past three seasons is 126-258 -- that's a 53-win pace over a 162-game regular season -- and there is no indication that Baltimore is pushing to win more this year. Chris Davis is still on the roster. Alex Cobb was traded. If Trey Mancini hits well this year in his first season since overcoming cancer, he will presumably become a candidate to be dealt. Meanwhile, the rest of the division is really good -- the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox are all average to well-above-average teams. And once again, they should beat up on the Orioles. There is no end in sight to the ugliness in Baltimore, and it's unclear why the O's would take such a big leap in winning percentage over a full regular season. -- Buster Olney
[h=2]AL Central[/h]
[h=3]Chicago White Sox[/h][h=3]Lance Lynn 25-1 to lead MLB in wins[/h]At 25-1, Lynn has just the 15th-best odds to lead MLB in wins, but my projection system, THE BAT, has him inside the top 10. Part of this could be a lack of belief that Lynn has actually become a great pitcher (he has), but it's also likely that the market doesn't understand his best skill: the ability to go deep in games. Lynn had the longest leash in baseball in 2020 and the second-longest in 2019 (according to my adjusted pitch count formulas). He's on a new team, but if he's able to keep going deep, that gives him a significant advantage. To illustrate why this matters, the difference between a pitcher who always goes seven innings and one who always goes five innings would amount to nearly four additional wins over 32 starts. That's a big deal, and Lynn is more capable than almost any pitcher in baseball to pitch deep into games and pick up extra wins late in the game. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h][h=3]Over 81 wins[/h]For fans of the franchise, there is great frustration with the annual rite of trading a star who doesn't fit into a modest payroll. In 2019, that was Trevor Bauer, in '20, Mike Clevinger, and in '21, it's Francisco Lindor. But folks who work in rival front offices have tremendous respect for the Cleveland brain trust, and what they see is a team with sustained success in spite of limited resources. In the eight years since Terry Francona was hired as manager, Cleveland has never had a losing record; the Indians have won more than 90 games in five seasons.
Yes, Cleveland traded Lindor, one of the most dynamic talents in baseball. But keep in mind that he didn't play well last year, posting a .750 OPS -- and the Indians still played at a 94-win pace over the 60-game season, finishing 35-25. Because year after year after year, the Indians pitch well; they are extraordinary at finding and fostering pitching, and in 2021, they'll have Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber fronting their rotation, with young, high-ceiling starters behind him. Even with Clevinger being booted off the team temporarily, and then later being dealt to San Diego, Carl Willis' staff posted the second-lowest ERA in the big leagues.
Sure, Cleveland's offense is a concern, and yes, it'll have to find replacements in the bullpen for Brad Hand and others, and it is true that the rest of the division is getting more competitive. But it seems like a lot would have to go very wrong for Cleveland to not reach 81 wins. -- Buster Olney
[h=3]Kansas City Royals[/h][h=3]Whit Merrifield 60-1 to lead MLB in runs scored[/h]Merrifield is tied for the second-favorite to lead the majors in hits. He's the fourth-favorite for stolen bases at DraftKings, as Caesars William Hill does not offer that proposition. And 60-1 odds is just way too high for someone expected to be on base that much. By comparison, Washington's Trea Turner has similar odds in both categories and is 18-1 to lead in runs scored. Kansas City has suffered through four straight losing seasons, but the lineup should improve with the addition of free agent Carlos Santana. That will bolster Merrifield's production. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=2]AL West[/h]
[h=3]Los Angeles Angels[/h][h=3]Shohei Ohtani 20-1 to win AL MVP[/h]This was much better when it was 50-1. Even at 20-1, there remains value. His bat looks elite. His arm is healthy. (Can't say the same for his blistered fingers.) MVP voters love great stories, and Ohtani fulfilling his two-way destiny is a hell of a tale. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Texas Rangers[/h][h=3]Rangers -1600 to miss playoffs[/h]Big limb you're going out on there, Jeff. Congratulations on the bold call. Fine. Guilty as charged. But know that the $100 return on your $1,600 investment over six months is 6.25% -- better than a CD or savings account and every bit as guaranteed. -- Jeff Passan
[h=2]NL East[/h]
[h=3]New York Mets[/h][h=3]Mets win 30 games before Yankees[/h]The Mets go 39 games before facing Atlanta, then following that series have three at Miami and four against woeful Colorado. The Yankees do have seven games against Baltimore in April, then face Detroit, Houston and Washington before three more against Baltimore and four at Texas. But at -200, the value is bad. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Over 89 wins[/h]
They flirted with just about every available big name, and there is some internal disappointment that they couldn't land Trevor Bauer or one of the other stars beyond Francisco Lindor. However, the Mets used their newfound financial power to bolster their depth with the likes of reliever Trevor May, outfielder Kevin Pillar and infielder Jonathan Villar. Manager Luis Rojas will have a lot of options with his roster day to day.
But keep this in mind, as well: There is a ton of pressure on Steve Cohen to win in his first year as owner of the Mets, given the expectations of the fan base, and if the team is in contention at midseason and there are holes to fill via trades, it's a reasonable expectation that Cohen will greenlight moves to make the team better -- in what is likely to be another buyer's market, with more clubs selling rather than acquiring. -- Buster Olney
[h=3]Atlanta Braves[/h][h=3]Under 91.5 wins[/h]
The NL East is a beast, so win totals could be deflated based on teams beating up on each other. Plus, after owning the division the last couple of years, the Braves could be vulnerable -- just a little. Experts love them, which makes you wonder, why only 91 wins? They have question marks in CF and at 3B, plus a well below defender in LF. The loss of the DH in the NL really hurts this team. They're pitching has the potential to be very good, but it's no slam dunk that 1-5 they'll be dominant. There are question marks with this team. -- Jesse Rogers
[h=3]Ronald Acuna Jr. 10-1 to win National League MVP[/h]
Whenever I bet against the Braves, every Acuna at-bat absolutely terrifies me. He can hit any pitch out of the ballpark, and I am always stunned whenever he makes an out. In 2019, he batted .280 with 41 HRs, 101 RBI and 37 steals. Those numbers dipped a bit last year in the shortened season, but a lot of players struggled to find their rhythm. The 23-year-old is poised for greatness, and it will arrive sooner than later.
The Braves figure to compete in a tough NL East, and he should have several opportunities for "MVP moments" in August and September. He was named a 2020 Gold Glove finalist, so his defense is another bullet point on an MVP resume. Plus, two other respected sportsbooks are offering him at +500 and +675. I have to grab 10-1. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Freddie Freeman over 171.5 hits[/h]
In 2018, Freeman had 191 hits. In 2019, it was 176. Last year, he was on a 197-hit pace. Freeman always rakes, and with the lineup that surrounds him in Atlanta, he's going to see pitches to hit. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Philadelphia Phillies[/h][h=3]+850 to win NL East[/h]No matter what market you look at, the books think the Phillies are the fourth-best team in the NL East -- and a distant fourth at that. THE BAT X sees them as the third-best team and less than three wins behind the Mets and Braves. This is a well-rounded team with plenty of star power and practically no holes, so I don't understand the lack of love. At nearly 9-to-1 odds and a small projected gap between Philly and the top of the division, there is plenty of positive expected value here. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Miami Marlins[/h][h=3]Over 71.5 wins[/h]This looks too good to be true. The Marlins were no fluke last year, as they made the postseason, and unless their young starting pitching falls apart over the course of 162 games, they're a lock to win at least 72. Miami might be no better than they were in 2020, but they aren't considerably worse and they have some great arms to keep them in most games. The NL East may not allow for a 100-win team, but the converse is true as well. No one will finish that far under the .500 mark. The Marlins will earn their share of in-the-division victories, which will lead to an over win total. -- Jesse Rogers
[h=2]NL Central[/h]
[h=3]Cincinnati Reds[/h][h=3]Mike Moustakas 80-1 to lead MLB in home runs[/h]Carty: My projection system, THE BAT X projects Moustakas for 36 home runs. That's tied for sixth-most in MLB, but his odds would project him for the 40th-most or so. Moose is very much the "old boring vet" mold that people tend to underrate, but the dude's power is just as good as it's ever been, and he plays his home games in baseball's premier power park. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h][h=3]Brewers +325 to win NL Central[/h]In the giant mess that is the Central, the Brewers have the sort of pitching that can dominate and enough on the offensive side to take advantage of their rivals' arms, or lack thereof. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Corbin Burnes 45-1 to win NL Cy Young[/h]His stuff this spring looked incredible -- and his .140 batting average against and 26 strikeouts only reinforced that last season's breakout was not a mirage. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h][h=3]Ke'Bryan Hayes +400 to win NL Rookie of the Year[/h]Unlike MVP, Rookie of the Year is a vote in which team success doesn't sway voters. What does influence them: Wins above Replacement. And in that regard, Hayes is looking like the new Matt Chapman, a player whose glove at third base is so good that he's a two-win player regardless of how he hits. The thing is, Hayes can rake, too, and as impressive as the NL rookie class is, with Ian Anderson and Dylan Carlson and Sixto Sanchez, Hayes, even as the favorite, is a good bet. -- Jeff Passan
[h=2]NL West[/h]
[h=3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h][h=3]+350 to win World Series[/h]Yes, this is as chalky as it gets. But I harken back to a conversation I had with a scout Monday. The Dodgers, he said, are so good that Tony Gonsolin, who looked like a legitimate No. 2 this spring, isn't even in their rotation. In an unexpanded playoff format, in which the best team gets to play a hindered wild-card team, it's an even greater advantage for a team like Los Angeles, which figures to be the top seed. Baseball is weird, yes, and the better team doesn't always win, but if it's the field vs. the Dodgers, damn the odds, give me Los Angeles. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Corey Seager 13-1 to win NL MVP[/h]Cody Bellinger did win NL MVP in 2019, and Mookie Betts did win AL MVP in 2018, so it feels weird to be questioning why Seager has longer odds than them. And yet if there's a Dodger who has that MVP look, it's the 26-year-old Seager, who's coming off a World Series MVP award and going into free agency. It's a perfect storm that has manifested itself all spring and should continue to as the Dodgers endeavor to repeat. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]San Diego Padres[/h][h=3]Over 92 wins[/h]The roster is exciting, loaded. The rotation has been augmented by the offseason deals for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Because of the unbalanced scheduled, every team plays 76 games within its own division. Given the obvious preeminence of the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West, there is an expectation among other teams that the Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies will assess their chances rationally, analytically, and become sellers -- especially if the 10-team playoff structure is in place for 2021. It's possible that San Francisco, Arizona and Colorado will sell off some of their better players before the deadline, making San Diego's path to a 95- or even 100-win season even smoother.
And like the Mets, it's almost a given that the Padres will be aggressive in adding before the trade deadline. Owner Peter Seidler has bet heavily on 2021. If more resources are needed in an attempt to overcome the Dodgers, it's just about a sure thing that he'll push in more chips. -- Buster Olney
[h=3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h][h=3]Ketel Marte 20-1 to lead MLB in hits[/h]THE BAT X is a big believer in a Marte rebound in 2021, given the small sample sizes of 2020 and the stability of several of his key metrics despite the poor surface stats. His max exit velocity actually improved from 96th percentile in 2019 to 97th percentile in 2020, and he has been smoking the ball all over the Cactus League this spring. THE BAT X projects him for the third-most hits this season, and that makes these odds quite tasty. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Colorado Rockies[/h][h=3]Rockies (+105) to reach 30 wins before the Orioles[/h]
If you have a screw loose like I do, you might really enjoy sweating out this faceoff of ineptitude. Both clubs have win totals of 63.5, but I think the comparisons end there. Colorado has a superior lineup and pitching staff, all things considered. I realize this is not about which roster is better, but I do think the Rockies could surpass some expectations ... at times.
My thoughts on Baltimore appear above for the season win total bet. Colorado still has Trevor Story, and although he might be traded by the deadline, he is likely to play for the Rockies for a bulk of this particular wager. The staff includes German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. While they are inconsistent, that is far better than what Baltimore is trotting out there.
Colorado does have to face the Dodgers in seven of its first 13 games, but losing by a lot doesn't really matter. Plus, the Orioles are 5-24 against the Yankees over the past two seasons, so we can probably call that a wash. Ultimately, I think Coors Field will negatively impact opposing pitchers and allow for some variance. The Rockies are bad but just a little "less bad" than the Orioles. -- Doug Kezirian
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Baseball season is upon us, and there are betting opportunities galore.
From World Series bets to win totals to MVP and more, we went through it all to find our best picks heading into the season.
Some things to keep in mind: The ball won't be as juiced, there aren't the expanded playoffs we had last year, and doubleheaders will be seven-inning games.
Without further ado, here are our best bets for the upcoming season featuring many teams around the league and searchable by division below.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
[h=2]AL East[/h]
[h=3]New York Yankees[/h][h=3]-200 to win AL East[/h]
You're not going to get rich laying juice for season bets. After all, sports are unpredictable and baseball is as wacky as it can get. If the juice was -250, I would pass, but -200 is low enough for me to pull the trigger. The Red Sox are not really a threat, and let's not dignify the Orioles, so this is about outlasting the Rays and Blue Jays. Yes, Tampa won the division in 2020, but that was a 60-game season. A larger sample size produces a truer outcome.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Let's start with the obvious: The lineup is loaded. The Yankees led the American League in runs and OPS last year, despite enduring significant injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. I realize injuries are part of sports and Stanton battles seemingly injuries on an annual basis so we can expect a DL stint this season. However, New York can withstand more setbacks than other teams; that's the luxury of their payroll. I also expect Gleyber Torres and Garry Sanchez to bounce back this year.
For me, the key is the starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is the true ace, and they added Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Domingo German and Luis Severino. Kluber and Taillon are coming off injuries, but things look good so far in spring training. This was their biggest concern in 2020, and the Yanks addressed it. Anything can happen, but I will take my chances with this squad and a front office that's always willing to make the necessary moves. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h][h=3]Bo Bichette 25-1 to lead MLB in hits[/h]Bichette got everything you want in a hit king. Good bat-to-ball skills. Strong exit velocity. Low walk rate. Tons of at-bats. If not this year, Bichette will win one of these soon. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h][h=3]Over 86 wins[/h]
By now we all know the drill. The Rays are underestimated and surprise many by making a playoff run. That's their recipe and why have they surpassed their season win total in four straight years. I think they make it five straight and build off last year's World Series appearance. Yes, they did trade away stud pitcher Blake Snell, but Chris Archer returns after missing all of last season with an injury. Rich Hill could be a wild card for the staff, but given the franchise's willingness to go to the bullpen, he might turn out to be a nice addition.
As for the lineup, Randy Arozarena will play the entire season and Tampa also has plenty of bats to compete in the playoff race. With the Orioles and Red Sox in rebuilding mode, the Rays are the defending division champs and can give the Yanks a run for the division. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Arozarena 50-1 to win American League MVP[/h]
What if he is the real deal? What if this postseason sensation is actually a fantastic player and a legitimate MVP candidate? A 30-30 season is doable, and I expect the Rays to contend for a playoff spot. For Mike Trout (+200) not to win the award, another player has to post impressive numbers for a playoff team and the Angels have to miss the postseason. That's a lot to ask, so I need something like 50-1 for me to bite. Plus, he's electrifying and can move the needle, which always helps. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Brandon Lowe 80-1 to win American League MVP[/h]Sorry, Doug, but if there's a good MVP value on this team, it's Lowe, who was the first-half MVP in the AL last season. He's prone to hot-and-cold spurts, but when he's locked in, there are few better. And at 80-1 when Wander Franco, who won't be with the Rays for a good while, is at 60-1? Please. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles[/h][h=3]Under 64 wins[/h]What can I say about this team other than that they are terrible? Fan Graphs gives Baltimore a 0% chance to make the playoffs, which seems pretty ridiculous when you think about it. The AL East features contenders in the Yankees and Rays, with the Blue Jays and Red Sox expected to play close to .500 ball. The Orioles went 25-35 last year, which is a pace of 67.6 wins over a full season. That's impressive, but I am focusing on larger sample sizes.
Baltimore's best hitter is probably Trey Mancini or Anthony Santander. Even if the lineup delivers at times, the pitching is just ridiculously awful. Ace John Means is decent, but Matt Harvey is the No. 2 starter. I could go on and on about guys you have never heard of, but what's the point? Their ceiling is probably 70 wins and their floor is likely 47 wins, which is what they mustered in 2018 (54 in 2019). The 63.5 feels too high. -- Doug Kezirian
Their record over the past three seasons is 126-258 -- that's a 53-win pace over a 162-game regular season -- and there is no indication that Baltimore is pushing to win more this year. Chris Davis is still on the roster. Alex Cobb was traded. If Trey Mancini hits well this year in his first season since overcoming cancer, he will presumably become a candidate to be dealt. Meanwhile, the rest of the division is really good -- the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox are all average to well-above-average teams. And once again, they should beat up on the Orioles. There is no end in sight to the ugliness in Baltimore, and it's unclear why the O's would take such a big leap in winning percentage over a full regular season. -- Buster Olney
[h=2]AL Central[/h]
[h=3]Chicago White Sox[/h][h=3]Lance Lynn 25-1 to lead MLB in wins[/h]At 25-1, Lynn has just the 15th-best odds to lead MLB in wins, but my projection system, THE BAT, has him inside the top 10. Part of this could be a lack of belief that Lynn has actually become a great pitcher (he has), but it's also likely that the market doesn't understand his best skill: the ability to go deep in games. Lynn had the longest leash in baseball in 2020 and the second-longest in 2019 (according to my adjusted pitch count formulas). He's on a new team, but if he's able to keep going deep, that gives him a significant advantage. To illustrate why this matters, the difference between a pitcher who always goes seven innings and one who always goes five innings would amount to nearly four additional wins over 32 starts. That's a big deal, and Lynn is more capable than almost any pitcher in baseball to pitch deep into games and pick up extra wins late in the game. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h][h=3]Over 81 wins[/h]For fans of the franchise, there is great frustration with the annual rite of trading a star who doesn't fit into a modest payroll. In 2019, that was Trevor Bauer, in '20, Mike Clevinger, and in '21, it's Francisco Lindor. But folks who work in rival front offices have tremendous respect for the Cleveland brain trust, and what they see is a team with sustained success in spite of limited resources. In the eight years since Terry Francona was hired as manager, Cleveland has never had a losing record; the Indians have won more than 90 games in five seasons.
Yes, Cleveland traded Lindor, one of the most dynamic talents in baseball. But keep in mind that he didn't play well last year, posting a .750 OPS -- and the Indians still played at a 94-win pace over the 60-game season, finishing 35-25. Because year after year after year, the Indians pitch well; they are extraordinary at finding and fostering pitching, and in 2021, they'll have Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber fronting their rotation, with young, high-ceiling starters behind him. Even with Clevinger being booted off the team temporarily, and then later being dealt to San Diego, Carl Willis' staff posted the second-lowest ERA in the big leagues.
Sure, Cleveland's offense is a concern, and yes, it'll have to find replacements in the bullpen for Brad Hand and others, and it is true that the rest of the division is getting more competitive. But it seems like a lot would have to go very wrong for Cleveland to not reach 81 wins. -- Buster Olney
[h=3]Kansas City Royals[/h][h=3]Whit Merrifield 60-1 to lead MLB in runs scored[/h]Merrifield is tied for the second-favorite to lead the majors in hits. He's the fourth-favorite for stolen bases at DraftKings, as Caesars William Hill does not offer that proposition. And 60-1 odds is just way too high for someone expected to be on base that much. By comparison, Washington's Trea Turner has similar odds in both categories and is 18-1 to lead in runs scored. Kansas City has suffered through four straight losing seasons, but the lineup should improve with the addition of free agent Carlos Santana. That will bolster Merrifield's production. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=2]AL West[/h]
[h=3]Los Angeles Angels[/h][h=3]Shohei Ohtani 20-1 to win AL MVP[/h]This was much better when it was 50-1. Even at 20-1, there remains value. His bat looks elite. His arm is healthy. (Can't say the same for his blistered fingers.) MVP voters love great stories, and Ohtani fulfilling his two-way destiny is a hell of a tale. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Texas Rangers[/h][h=3]Rangers -1600 to miss playoffs[/h]Big limb you're going out on there, Jeff. Congratulations on the bold call. Fine. Guilty as charged. But know that the $100 return on your $1,600 investment over six months is 6.25% -- better than a CD or savings account and every bit as guaranteed. -- Jeff Passan
[h=2]NL East[/h]
[h=3]New York Mets[/h][h=3]Mets win 30 games before Yankees[/h]The Mets go 39 games before facing Atlanta, then following that series have three at Miami and four against woeful Colorado. The Yankees do have seven games against Baltimore in April, then face Detroit, Houston and Washington before three more against Baltimore and four at Texas. But at -200, the value is bad. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Over 89 wins[/h]
They flirted with just about every available big name, and there is some internal disappointment that they couldn't land Trevor Bauer or one of the other stars beyond Francisco Lindor. However, the Mets used their newfound financial power to bolster their depth with the likes of reliever Trevor May, outfielder Kevin Pillar and infielder Jonathan Villar. Manager Luis Rojas will have a lot of options with his roster day to day.
But keep this in mind, as well: There is a ton of pressure on Steve Cohen to win in his first year as owner of the Mets, given the expectations of the fan base, and if the team is in contention at midseason and there are holes to fill via trades, it's a reasonable expectation that Cohen will greenlight moves to make the team better -- in what is likely to be another buyer's market, with more clubs selling rather than acquiring. -- Buster Olney
[h=3]Atlanta Braves[/h][h=3]Under 91.5 wins[/h]
The NL East is a beast, so win totals could be deflated based on teams beating up on each other. Plus, after owning the division the last couple of years, the Braves could be vulnerable -- just a little. Experts love them, which makes you wonder, why only 91 wins? They have question marks in CF and at 3B, plus a well below defender in LF. The loss of the DH in the NL really hurts this team. They're pitching has the potential to be very good, but it's no slam dunk that 1-5 they'll be dominant. There are question marks with this team. -- Jesse Rogers
[h=3]Ronald Acuna Jr. 10-1 to win National League MVP[/h]
Whenever I bet against the Braves, every Acuna at-bat absolutely terrifies me. He can hit any pitch out of the ballpark, and I am always stunned whenever he makes an out. In 2019, he batted .280 with 41 HRs, 101 RBI and 37 steals. Those numbers dipped a bit last year in the shortened season, but a lot of players struggled to find their rhythm. The 23-year-old is poised for greatness, and it will arrive sooner than later.
The Braves figure to compete in a tough NL East, and he should have several opportunities for "MVP moments" in August and September. He was named a 2020 Gold Glove finalist, so his defense is another bullet point on an MVP resume. Plus, two other respected sportsbooks are offering him at +500 and +675. I have to grab 10-1. -- Doug Kezirian
[h=3]Freddie Freeman over 171.5 hits[/h]
In 2018, Freeman had 191 hits. In 2019, it was 176. Last year, he was on a 197-hit pace. Freeman always rakes, and with the lineup that surrounds him in Atlanta, he's going to see pitches to hit. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Philadelphia Phillies[/h][h=3]+850 to win NL East[/h]No matter what market you look at, the books think the Phillies are the fourth-best team in the NL East -- and a distant fourth at that. THE BAT X sees them as the third-best team and less than three wins behind the Mets and Braves. This is a well-rounded team with plenty of star power and practically no holes, so I don't understand the lack of love. At nearly 9-to-1 odds and a small projected gap between Philly and the top of the division, there is plenty of positive expected value here. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Miami Marlins[/h][h=3]Over 71.5 wins[/h]This looks too good to be true. The Marlins were no fluke last year, as they made the postseason, and unless their young starting pitching falls apart over the course of 162 games, they're a lock to win at least 72. Miami might be no better than they were in 2020, but they aren't considerably worse and they have some great arms to keep them in most games. The NL East may not allow for a 100-win team, but the converse is true as well. No one will finish that far under the .500 mark. The Marlins will earn their share of in-the-division victories, which will lead to an over win total. -- Jesse Rogers
[h=2]NL Central[/h]
[h=3]Cincinnati Reds[/h][h=3]Mike Moustakas 80-1 to lead MLB in home runs[/h]Carty: My projection system, THE BAT X projects Moustakas for 36 home runs. That's tied for sixth-most in MLB, but his odds would project him for the 40th-most or so. Moose is very much the "old boring vet" mold that people tend to underrate, but the dude's power is just as good as it's ever been, and he plays his home games in baseball's premier power park. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h][h=3]Brewers +325 to win NL Central[/h]In the giant mess that is the Central, the Brewers have the sort of pitching that can dominate and enough on the offensive side to take advantage of their rivals' arms, or lack thereof. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Corbin Burnes 45-1 to win NL Cy Young[/h]His stuff this spring looked incredible -- and his .140 batting average against and 26 strikeouts only reinforced that last season's breakout was not a mirage. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h][h=3]Ke'Bryan Hayes +400 to win NL Rookie of the Year[/h]Unlike MVP, Rookie of the Year is a vote in which team success doesn't sway voters. What does influence them: Wins above Replacement. And in that regard, Hayes is looking like the new Matt Chapman, a player whose glove at third base is so good that he's a two-win player regardless of how he hits. The thing is, Hayes can rake, too, and as impressive as the NL rookie class is, with Ian Anderson and Dylan Carlson and Sixto Sanchez, Hayes, even as the favorite, is a good bet. -- Jeff Passan
[h=2]NL West[/h]
[h=3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h][h=3]+350 to win World Series[/h]Yes, this is as chalky as it gets. But I harken back to a conversation I had with a scout Monday. The Dodgers, he said, are so good that Tony Gonsolin, who looked like a legitimate No. 2 this spring, isn't even in their rotation. In an unexpanded playoff format, in which the best team gets to play a hindered wild-card team, it's an even greater advantage for a team like Los Angeles, which figures to be the top seed. Baseball is weird, yes, and the better team doesn't always win, but if it's the field vs. the Dodgers, damn the odds, give me Los Angeles. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]Corey Seager 13-1 to win NL MVP[/h]Cody Bellinger did win NL MVP in 2019, and Mookie Betts did win AL MVP in 2018, so it feels weird to be questioning why Seager has longer odds than them. And yet if there's a Dodger who has that MVP look, it's the 26-year-old Seager, who's coming off a World Series MVP award and going into free agency. It's a perfect storm that has manifested itself all spring and should continue to as the Dodgers endeavor to repeat. -- Jeff Passan
[h=3]San Diego Padres[/h][h=3]Over 92 wins[/h]The roster is exciting, loaded. The rotation has been augmented by the offseason deals for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Because of the unbalanced scheduled, every team plays 76 games within its own division. Given the obvious preeminence of the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West, there is an expectation among other teams that the Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies will assess their chances rationally, analytically, and become sellers -- especially if the 10-team playoff structure is in place for 2021. It's possible that San Francisco, Arizona and Colorado will sell off some of their better players before the deadline, making San Diego's path to a 95- or even 100-win season even smoother.
And like the Mets, it's almost a given that the Padres will be aggressive in adding before the trade deadline. Owner Peter Seidler has bet heavily on 2021. If more resources are needed in an attempt to overcome the Dodgers, it's just about a sure thing that he'll push in more chips. -- Buster Olney
[h=3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h][h=3]Ketel Marte 20-1 to lead MLB in hits[/h]THE BAT X is a big believer in a Marte rebound in 2021, given the small sample sizes of 2020 and the stability of several of his key metrics despite the poor surface stats. His max exit velocity actually improved from 96th percentile in 2019 to 97th percentile in 2020, and he has been smoking the ball all over the Cactus League this spring. THE BAT X projects him for the third-most hits this season, and that makes these odds quite tasty. -- Derek Carty
[h=3]Colorado Rockies[/h][h=3]Rockies (+105) to reach 30 wins before the Orioles[/h]
If you have a screw loose like I do, you might really enjoy sweating out this faceoff of ineptitude. Both clubs have win totals of 63.5, but I think the comparisons end there. Colorado has a superior lineup and pitching staff, all things considered. I realize this is not about which roster is better, but I do think the Rockies could surpass some expectations ... at times.
My thoughts on Baltimore appear above for the season win total bet. Colorado still has Trevor Story, and although he might be traded by the deadline, he is likely to play for the Rockies for a bulk of this particular wager. The staff includes German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. While they are inconsistent, that is far better than what Baltimore is trotting out there.
Colorado does have to face the Dodgers in seven of its first 13 games, but losing by a lot doesn't really matter. Plus, the Orioles are 5-24 against the Yankees over the past two seasons, so we can probably call that a wash. Ultimately, I think Coors Field will negatively impact opposing pitchers and allow for some variance. The Rockies are bad but just a little "less bad" than the Orioles. -- Doug Kezirian
