[h=3]Best bets for Monday Night Football: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks[/h][FONT="]ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL[/FONT]
[FONT="]The [/FONT]Seattle Seahawks[FONT="] will host the [/FONT]New Orleans Saints[FONT="] to wrap up Week 7 on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).[/FONT]
[FONT="]ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody and Anita Marks, plus ESPN Analytics' Seth Walder and Mackenzie Kraemer have teamed up to offer up their best bets.[/FONT]
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
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New Orleans Saints (-4, 42.5) at Seattle Seahawks[/h]Moody: Jameis Winston's passing yards have increased in each of his last four games (111, 128, 226, 279), along with his passing attempts. Against the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance, Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger, the Seahawks' defense has struggled this season. On average, these five quarterbacks threw for 284.2 yards per game.
Alvin Kamara will remain an important part of the Saints' passing game. So far this season, he's averaged just 22.6 passing yards per game, with a season high of 51 yards in Week 5. However, Kamara did average 47.1 receiving yards per game from 2017 to 2020. The bye week came at the perfect time for the Saints and, against the Seahawks, I believe we will see an improved New Orleans team.
Picks: Winston over 205.5 passing yards, Kamara over 29.5 receiving yards
Walder: You know, 93.5 rushing yards feels like a pretty high line -- and it's one that Kamara surpassed just once in the regular season last year. Of course, Kamara is running the ball much more this season with Winston under center, although he's also only had more than 93 yards on the ground once this year, too! Still, based on volume alone, I'm not sure I'd bet the under. That said, there's even more moving me in that direction, namely that the Seahawks rank second in "run stop win rate," an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats that correlates with YPC. All of this means it should relatively tough sledding for Kamara on the ground.
Pick: Kamara under 93.5 rushing yards (-115)
Kraemer: The Saints have played at one of the slowest tempos in the NFL this season. They've relied heavily on big plays, with three TD passes of at least 50 air yards. However, one area where the Seahawks defense has had success is guarding against the deep ball. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ran an extremely conservative offense with Geno Smith last week, with his average pass attempt reaching just 3.1 yards down the field.
Seattle had no points at halftime of that one, and I expect the Seahawks to try to be conservative again offensively. If they can limit the Saints' explosive plays and elite red zone offensive efficiency, this game should be low-scoring for the first 30 minutes.
Pick: First half under 21
Marks: The Saints are getting healthier and coming off a bye, while Seattle will still be without Russell Wilson. Word on the street is that Michael Thomas may even make his 2021 debut! Sean Payton has a fantastic record (12-6 straight up) coming out of a bye week. The Saints are 13 of 14 in converting red zone possessions into touchdowns, and Seattle has allowed 27 red zone possessions this season. Weather conditions are expected to be bad, so I'm expecting Kamara to carry the rock often. Geno Smith is also going to have to scramble to move the chains.
Picks: Saints -4, Kamara over 23.5 carries (+100), Smith over 12.5 rushing yards (-120)
[FONT="]The [/FONT]Seattle Seahawks[FONT="] will host the [/FONT]New Orleans Saints[FONT="] to wrap up Week 7 on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).[/FONT]
[FONT="]ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody and Anita Marks, plus ESPN Analytics' Seth Walder and Mackenzie Kraemer have teamed up to offer up their best bets.[/FONT]
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
[h=3]
New Orleans Saints (-4, 42.5) at Seattle Seahawks[/h]Moody: Jameis Winston's passing yards have increased in each of his last four games (111, 128, 226, 279), along with his passing attempts. Against the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance, Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger, the Seahawks' defense has struggled this season. On average, these five quarterbacks threw for 284.2 yards per game.
Alvin Kamara will remain an important part of the Saints' passing game. So far this season, he's averaged just 22.6 passing yards per game, with a season high of 51 yards in Week 5. However, Kamara did average 47.1 receiving yards per game from 2017 to 2020. The bye week came at the perfect time for the Saints and, against the Seahawks, I believe we will see an improved New Orleans team.
Picks: Winston over 205.5 passing yards, Kamara over 29.5 receiving yards
Walder: You know, 93.5 rushing yards feels like a pretty high line -- and it's one that Kamara surpassed just once in the regular season last year. Of course, Kamara is running the ball much more this season with Winston under center, although he's also only had more than 93 yards on the ground once this year, too! Still, based on volume alone, I'm not sure I'd bet the under. That said, there's even more moving me in that direction, namely that the Seahawks rank second in "run stop win rate," an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats that correlates with YPC. All of this means it should relatively tough sledding for Kamara on the ground.
Pick: Kamara under 93.5 rushing yards (-115)
Kraemer: The Saints have played at one of the slowest tempos in the NFL this season. They've relied heavily on big plays, with three TD passes of at least 50 air yards. However, one area where the Seahawks defense has had success is guarding against the deep ball. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ran an extremely conservative offense with Geno Smith last week, with his average pass attempt reaching just 3.1 yards down the field.
Seattle had no points at halftime of that one, and I expect the Seahawks to try to be conservative again offensively. If they can limit the Saints' explosive plays and elite red zone offensive efficiency, this game should be low-scoring for the first 30 minutes.
Pick: First half under 21
Marks: The Saints are getting healthier and coming off a bye, while Seattle will still be without Russell Wilson. Word on the street is that Michael Thomas may even make his 2021 debut! Sean Payton has a fantastic record (12-6 straight up) coming out of a bye week. The Saints are 13 of 14 in converting red zone possessions into touchdowns, and Seattle has allowed 27 red zone possessions this season. Weather conditions are expected to be bad, so I'm expecting Kamara to carry the rock often. Geno Smith is also going to have to scramble to move the chains.
Picks: Saints -4, Kamara over 23.5 carries (+100), Smith over 12.5 rushing yards (-120)
