The Rams are loaded with talent across the board, no doubt. However, that talent has not produced the results on the field that we expected. Since losing to the Cardinals, the Rams are 5-3, with the five wins coming against teams with a combined 13-46-1 record. They lost to the Titans, 49ers and Packers -- the only three .500-or-better teams they played. They are currently 1-4 ATS on the season versus teams with a winning record. I've heard the narrative that Sean McVay is 8-1 ATS when playing the Cardinals, but as mentioned above, the one loss was just a few weeks ago. Four of those covers were against Blaine Gabbert, Carson Palmer, Josh Rosen and Sam Bradford.
Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals should get more credit than they are for their cautious handling of the injuries to Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, putting faith in the defense and Colt McCoy to take care of things while they were out. Now they get a healthy Murray and Hopkins back for when it matters most. These two teams very well could be the two best teams in the league, and maybe we'll get lucky and see a "Part III" in January. For now, though, the Cardinals have been the better team for the first 13 weeks, and I see that continuing at home Monday night.
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Fulghum: The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL (10-2) and the second-best ATS record in the NFL (9-3). That signifies a truly great team to me. They've won with Murray. They've won without Murray (and Hopkins and J.J. Watt). They beat the Rams in Los Angeles in the first meeting. Last week, both Murray and Hopkins returned for the win and cover against the Bears. The Rams beat the Jaguars handily in Week 13, one of several cellar dwellers they've had little trouble handling. But it's the league's best teams that have given them fits.
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Moody: Against the Bears last week, Hopkins returned from his hamstring injury and was targeted only twice. Hopkins did play on 74% of the Cardinals' offensive snaps and appeared to avoid any setbacks. He should see more targets against the Rams this week. This season, he has averaged 57.6 receiving yards per game.
Pick: Hopkins over 58.5 receiving yards (-110)
Murray also returned last week, and A.J. Green saw just one target. However, Green should be more involved against the Rams. After all, during Weeks 1-8 with Murray at the helm, he averaged 5.0 targets per game. Green is also on the brink of making history, needing just 18 yards to reach the 10,000-yard plateau. He currently ranks fifth among active players behind Julio Jones (13,232), Antonio Brown (12,164), DeSean Jackson (11,017) and Hopkins (10,495).
Pick: Green over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)
In five career games against the Rams, Murray has averaged 203.2 passing yards. Los Angeles ranks 17th in pass defense, allowing 257 yards per game. Murray should also succeed as a runner. Last week, he rushed for 59 yards on 10 carries against the Bears. He looked 100% healthy in his first start since Week 8.
Picks: Murray under 264.5 passing yards (-115), Murray over 27.5 rushing yards (+105)
Meanwhile, the Rams have targeted Van Jefferson 17 times over the last two games, and he has averaged 67.0 receiving yards per game, even with Odell Beckham Jr. playing on the full amount of snaps. The only other Rams receiver with a larger target share than Jefferson (22.4%) over that time frame is Cooper Kupp (26.3%).
Pick: Jefferson over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
In five games against the Cardinals, Matthew Stafford has averaged 265.6 passing yards. Arizona's pass defense is currently ranked fourth overall, allowing just 221 yards per game, but Stafford threw for 280 yards against the Cardinals earlier this season. Over his past three games, Stafford has averaged 280 passing yards and a 62.4% completion rate. The good times should continue to roll for Stafford, with playmakers at every position.
Pick: Stafford over 280.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: The Rams have lost three of their past four games and are dealing with offensive line protection issues. Los Angeles is 0-3 both ATS and straight up against teams above .500. Arizona's defense is the best in the league against the pass on third down, allowing only 3.0 yards per passing play. The Cardinals have also allowed only two touchdowns outside of the red zone.
The first time these two teams met, Murray rushed for almost 40 yards. If Chase Edmonds is inactive, I love the "anytime" touchdown for James Conner. Darrell Henderson Jr. is out, so Sony Michel gets another start. The last time that Michel started, he handled 23 of 24 touches for the Rams. Arizona's rush defense is allowing over 5.0 yards per carry against 11 personnel, which the Rams play on over 80% of plays. Expect Michel to have a successful night.
Pick: Cards - 2.5, Murray over 27.5 rushing yards (-105), Michel anytime TD (-135), Conner anytime TD (-120)
Walder: Hopkins only figures to see "some" Jalen Ramsey given that the Rams' star corner frequently plays in the slot and Hopkins plays out wide 87% of the time. Still, even some Ramsey coverage is still notable, and fellow Rams CB Darious Williams is no slouch, either. If this line were lower, that would be forgivable, but it appears to be inflated relative to Hopkins' opportunity this season. His expected receiving yards per game (based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats) is only 46.3. Between that lesser target opportunity and the corners he's up against, I'm fading.
Pick: Hopkins under 58.5 receiving yards (-120)
Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals should get more credit than they are for their cautious handling of the injuries to Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, putting faith in the defense and Colt McCoy to take care of things while they were out. Now they get a healthy Murray and Hopkins back for when it matters most. These two teams very well could be the two best teams in the league, and maybe we'll get lucky and see a "Part III" in January. For now, though, the Cardinals have been the better team for the first 13 weeks, and I see that continuing at home Monday night.
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Fulghum: The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL (10-2) and the second-best ATS record in the NFL (9-3). That signifies a truly great team to me. They've won with Murray. They've won without Murray (and Hopkins and J.J. Watt). They beat the Rams in Los Angeles in the first meeting. Last week, both Murray and Hopkins returned for the win and cover against the Bears. The Rams beat the Jaguars handily in Week 13, one of several cellar dwellers they've had little trouble handling. But it's the league's best teams that have given them fits.
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Moody: Against the Bears last week, Hopkins returned from his hamstring injury and was targeted only twice. Hopkins did play on 74% of the Cardinals' offensive snaps and appeared to avoid any setbacks. He should see more targets against the Rams this week. This season, he has averaged 57.6 receiving yards per game.
Pick: Hopkins over 58.5 receiving yards (-110)
Murray also returned last week, and A.J. Green saw just one target. However, Green should be more involved against the Rams. After all, during Weeks 1-8 with Murray at the helm, he averaged 5.0 targets per game. Green is also on the brink of making history, needing just 18 yards to reach the 10,000-yard plateau. He currently ranks fifth among active players behind Julio Jones (13,232), Antonio Brown (12,164), DeSean Jackson (11,017) and Hopkins (10,495).
Pick: Green over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)
In five career games against the Rams, Murray has averaged 203.2 passing yards. Los Angeles ranks 17th in pass defense, allowing 257 yards per game. Murray should also succeed as a runner. Last week, he rushed for 59 yards on 10 carries against the Bears. He looked 100% healthy in his first start since Week 8.
Picks: Murray under 264.5 passing yards (-115), Murray over 27.5 rushing yards (+105)
Meanwhile, the Rams have targeted Van Jefferson 17 times over the last two games, and he has averaged 67.0 receiving yards per game, even with Odell Beckham Jr. playing on the full amount of snaps. The only other Rams receiver with a larger target share than Jefferson (22.4%) over that time frame is Cooper Kupp (26.3%).
Pick: Jefferson over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
In five games against the Cardinals, Matthew Stafford has averaged 265.6 passing yards. Arizona's pass defense is currently ranked fourth overall, allowing just 221 yards per game, but Stafford threw for 280 yards against the Cardinals earlier this season. Over his past three games, Stafford has averaged 280 passing yards and a 62.4% completion rate. The good times should continue to roll for Stafford, with playmakers at every position.
Pick: Stafford over 280.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: The Rams have lost three of their past four games and are dealing with offensive line protection issues. Los Angeles is 0-3 both ATS and straight up against teams above .500. Arizona's defense is the best in the league against the pass on third down, allowing only 3.0 yards per passing play. The Cardinals have also allowed only two touchdowns outside of the red zone.
The first time these two teams met, Murray rushed for almost 40 yards. If Chase Edmonds is inactive, I love the "anytime" touchdown for James Conner. Darrell Henderson Jr. is out, so Sony Michel gets another start. The last time that Michel started, he handled 23 of 24 touches for the Rams. Arizona's rush defense is allowing over 5.0 yards per carry against 11 personnel, which the Rams play on over 80% of plays. Expect Michel to have a successful night.
Pick: Cards - 2.5, Murray over 27.5 rushing yards (-105), Michel anytime TD (-135), Conner anytime TD (-120)
Walder: Hopkins only figures to see "some" Jalen Ramsey given that the Rams' star corner frequently plays in the slot and Hopkins plays out wide 87% of the time. Still, even some Ramsey coverage is still notable, and fellow Rams CB Darious Williams is no slouch, either. If this line were lower, that would be forgivable, but it appears to be inflated relative to Hopkins' opportunity this season. His expected receiving yards per game (based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats) is only 46.3. Between that lesser target opportunity and the corners he's up against, I'm fading.
Pick: Hopkins under 58.5 receiving yards (-120)
