Belgian Jupiler League Week 4 [7-1-1 |+16.197 units | +55.78% ROI]

[Costanza]

I'm currenty waiting for the asian handicap odds to come out probably later tonight. Things have been going extremely good and I would not be surprised if there would be some kind of correction soon after going 14-1-1 on the last 16 bets (incl last seasons ending)

Season 07/08 Record so far:
Picks = 9
Won / Lost / Push = 7 / 1 / 1 (87.5 % Winners !)
Units Bet = 29 units
Units Return = 45.179 units
Average Stake = 3.2 units
Profit = + 16.179 Units
ROI = +55,78 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units

http://belgianleague.blogabet.com

 

[Costanza]

Pick 10: Bergen vs Lokeren (4 Units) @ 2.030
Still available at pinnacle at the moment

 

[Costanza]

Pinnacle odds allready crashed to 1.855 by now which is pretty sick.
I see more value in taking the DNB @ 1.65 which is still available at Interwetten right now.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 11: KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge (4 Units) @ 1.877
match for next monday, full write-up available on blog

 

[fhmesq44]

Pinnacle odds allready crashed to 1.855 by now which is pretty sick.
I see more value in taking the DNB @ 1.65 which is still available at Interwetten right now.

so bergen would no longer be a play?

 

[Costanza]

Well, the line dropping from 2.03 to 1.855 is something hard to get around. I would not make it a 4 unit play at that price and see more value in the DNB which is available at interwetten (who have limits)

 

[Costanza]

I forgot to add the +0.75 handicap on pick 11, should be:

Pick 11: KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge (+0.75) (4 Units) @ 1.877

 

[Costanza]

also forgot to add the handicap on pick 10, should be

Pick 10: Bergen vs Lokeren (-0.25) (4 Units) @ 2.030

 

[Costanza]

line movement

Some huge line movements again allready for this weekends bets

Pick 10: Bergen vs Lokeren (-0.25) (4 Units) @ 2.030 ----> (-0.5) @ 2.15
Pick 11: KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge (+0.75) (4 Units) @ 1.877 ----> (+0.5) @ 2.190

The idea of the return of 1/2 stake has gone away and the bets lost their value by now. I'm concidering 3 more bets at the moment, but I'm still waiting on some comfirmation here and there.

 

[fhmesq44]

Costanza, 5 dimes shows the following games, what gives?

Sat 8/25 187 FC.V. Dender E.H. (Bel J) +380
2:00PM (EST) 188 Cercle Brugge (Bel J) -130
189 - Draw +252
Sat 8/25 190 SC Lokeren (Bel J) +275
2:00PM (EST) 191 R AEC Mons (Bel J) +103
192 - Draw +233

 

[Costanza]

I'n not touching the cercle match, should be a home win normally but cercle has not been very consitant. 2 bad away and 1 good home match so far.

I still believe Bergen will win this match, but I'm not ruling out the draw since lokeren has quite a solid defense. That's why I opted for the -0.25 handicap which had the same price as the -0.5 handicap now. Not sure what I would do in this spot. I would defenatly concider a 3 unit bet on Bergen -0.5

Probably 1 more bet for tonight, I'm waiting a bit to see which way the odds are going to go. Hat to miss out on the best price.

good luck

 

[fhmesq44]

so those are the same teams? You posted them under different names.

 

[rolltide]

mons bergen = aec mons = bergen

but cercle brugge and club brugge are different teams

 

[Costanza]

Pick 12: Westerlo vs Moeskroen (+0.5) (3 Units) @ 1.825

Should have picked this one early @ 1.901 odds but descided to wait and se the odds drop. Still enough value to go for it though. The match starts within a couple hours. Odds avaialble at Bet365

 

[Costanza]

so those are the same teams? You posted them under different names.

Sorry I tought you wanted to hear my view on cercle brugge. The one I posted was Club Brugge (plays on monday) Completely different match.

 

[Feri]

BOL & thanks Constanza! :toast:

 

[Costanza]

Pick 10: Bergen vs Lokeren (-0.25) (4 Units) @ 2.03 --> SCORE 0 - 1 [LOST - 4.000 Units]
Pick 11: KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge (+0.75) (4 Units) @ 1.877 --> Monday
Pick 12: Westerlo vs Moeskroen (+0.5) (3 Units) @ 1.825 --> SCORE 0 - 2 [WON + 2.475 Units]

1 - 1 tonight losing 1.525 units

Season 07/08 Updated Record:
Picks = 11
Won / Lost / Push = 8 / 2 / 1 (80 % Winners !)
Units Bet = 36 units
Units Return = 50.654 units
Average Stake = 3.3 units
Profit = + 14.654 Units
ROI = +40,70 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 1-1-0, - 1,525 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units

 

[Costanza]

it's Moeskroen that should be in bold, really need to get more sleep =)

 

[themadactuarian]

it's Moeskroen that should be in bold, really need to get more sleep =)

I think we discussed the subject before. Best of Belgian luck, Mister C

 

[fhmesq44]

1 - 1 tonight losing 1.525 units

Season 07/08 Updated Record:
Picks = 11
Won / Lost / Push = 8 / 2 / 1 (80 % Winners !)
Units Bet = 36 units
Units Return = 50.654 units
Average Stake = 3.3 units
Profit = + 14.654 Units
ROI = +40,70 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 1-1-0, - 1,525 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units

????????, I thought you had Westerlo"?