Barcelona's Champions League odds
Barcelona is the favorite, but don't count out their La Liga rival
By Albert Larcada
ESPN Stats and Information
ESPN Insider
Last week we took a look at how ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) simulations sees the remainder of the big four European domestic leagues playing out. This week we will turn our attention to the Champions League and the upcoming draw to determine the best and worst match-ups for each of the eight quarterfinalists.
Before we begin breaking down the possibilities, it is interesting to note the top five overall clubs in SPI are still alive in Champions League play. According to SPI, these squads -- Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Chelsea and Inter Milan -- are all more than one goal per match better than an average big four opponent. The only other clubs in the big four leagues (EPL, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga) who fit this profile are Arsenal and Bayern Munich, who were each eliminated by top-five clubs in the previous round. Needless to say there is a lot of quality left in the Champions League field.
Here are the chances of advancing to the semifinals for each remaining team against all possible quarterfinal opponents according to SPI ratings.
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The easiest way to read this is top to bottom. The first column (Barcelona) shows Barca's chances against each of its seven possible opponents. The redder the value the worse the matchup is for the team across the top; the greener the better.
Barcelona is the clear favorite against any opponent. Real Madrid in particular would be smitten if it could avoid its arch-rival as they are at least a 3-in-5 favorite if matched with anyone else left. They are also the only club with a better than 30 percent chance of beating Barca.
Shakhtar Donetsk, the only non-big four squad alive, should be the desired draw of all clubs. It received a bit of luck in the round of 16 draw when it, as SPI's 15th-ranked team, was matched up with Roma, SPI's 14th-ranked team. Shakhtar would be underdogs against any opponent this round, however, a draw of Tottenham or Schalke gives it a much better opportunity of advancing.
Although Tottenham would only be favorites against Shakhtar, Spurs would surely be content if they drew Schalke or Inter -- their chances fall to below 35 percent if drawn against any other squad.
An interesting matchup would be Manchester United against Chelsea. The advancement probabilities for each club are essentially the same, even though Chelsea has defeated the Red Devils in each of their previous three EPL fixtures. Excluding this potential matchup, both clubs would be strong favorites if drawn against any non-Spanish squad and significant underdogs if forced to visit Spain.
Another intriguing note which plays a role in our predictions is that home-pitch advantage is greater in Champions League than in domestic European leagues. As Real Madrid's goalkeeper Iker Casillas put it:
"We know that the environment in the Champions League is different and we need them (the crowd). The best moment I remember from the Champions League was a Real Madrid-Bayern in which we had to overcome a 2-1 deficit. The crowd turned to the team."
The World Cup-winning captain is on to something. Since the 1999-2000 Champions League, home-pitch advantage is worth roughly 0.53 goals per match in the group and knockout stages of the Champions League. In the same span home-pitch advantage in the EPL, Serie A and La Liga is worth 0.43, 0.44 and 0.45 goals, respectively.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Chance Of Making Semifinals Entering Draw (2010-11 Champions League)
<TABLE><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Team</TD><TD>Percentage</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Barcelona</TD><TD>78.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Real Madrid</TD><TD>65.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chelsea</TD><TD>54.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man Utd</TD><TD>52.6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Inter Milan</TD><TD>42.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Schalke</TD><TD>38.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tottenham</TD><TD>35.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Shakhtar Donetsk</TD><TD>32.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=2>>> According to ESPN's Soccer Power Index</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Simply put, home-pitch advantage is worth about 20 percent more in Champions League than in Europe's top domestic leagues. This should give teams like Barcelona an even greater bump as they have a well above average home-pitch benefit.
At this stage there are no restrictions on which club it could be drawn against, so each squad has an equal chance of being matched up with any of the remaining seven. Therefore by averaging each club's chances across opponents you can find each club's chance of advancing to the semis.
Of course, the results of the draw could change these numbers significantly.
Not surprisingly Barca tops this list. As we mentioned last week, they have the best offensive, defensive and overall SPI rating. If Barcelona was a country you could make an argument it would be the best international squad as well. While all clubs should hope to avoid Barca this round, eventually someone will have to knock off the giants if they hope to win Europe's premier club competition.
Albert Larcada is an analytics specialist in ESPN's Stats and Information group. He does advanced statistical research with the intention of better modeling and forecasting sporting events and leagues. Among other analytics projects he maintains, advances, and writes about ESPN's successful Soccer Power Index (SPI) algorithm.
Barcelona is the favorite, but don't count out their La Liga rival
By Albert Larcada
ESPN Stats and Information
ESPN Insider
Last week we took a look at how ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) simulations sees the remainder of the big four European domestic leagues playing out. This week we will turn our attention to the Champions League and the upcoming draw to determine the best and worst match-ups for each of the eight quarterfinalists.
Before we begin breaking down the possibilities, it is interesting to note the top five overall clubs in SPI are still alive in Champions League play. According to SPI, these squads -- Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Chelsea and Inter Milan -- are all more than one goal per match better than an average big four opponent. The only other clubs in the big four leagues (EPL, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga) who fit this profile are Arsenal and Bayern Munich, who were each eliminated by top-five clubs in the previous round. Needless to say there is a lot of quality left in the Champions League field.
Here are the chances of advancing to the semifinals for each remaining team against all possible quarterfinal opponents according to SPI ratings.
<OFFER><!-- photo wide photo -->
<!-- end wide photo -->
The easiest way to read this is top to bottom. The first column (Barcelona) shows Barca's chances against each of its seven possible opponents. The redder the value the worse the matchup is for the team across the top; the greener the better.
Barcelona is the clear favorite against any opponent. Real Madrid in particular would be smitten if it could avoid its arch-rival as they are at least a 3-in-5 favorite if matched with anyone else left. They are also the only club with a better than 30 percent chance of beating Barca.
Shakhtar Donetsk, the only non-big four squad alive, should be the desired draw of all clubs. It received a bit of luck in the round of 16 draw when it, as SPI's 15th-ranked team, was matched up with Roma, SPI's 14th-ranked team. Shakhtar would be underdogs against any opponent this round, however, a draw of Tottenham or Schalke gives it a much better opportunity of advancing.
Although Tottenham would only be favorites against Shakhtar, Spurs would surely be content if they drew Schalke or Inter -- their chances fall to below 35 percent if drawn against any other squad.
An interesting matchup would be Manchester United against Chelsea. The advancement probabilities for each club are essentially the same, even though Chelsea has defeated the Red Devils in each of their previous three EPL fixtures. Excluding this potential matchup, both clubs would be strong favorites if drawn against any non-Spanish squad and significant underdogs if forced to visit Spain.
Another intriguing note which plays a role in our predictions is that home-pitch advantage is greater in Champions League than in domestic European leagues. As Real Madrid's goalkeeper Iker Casillas put it:
"We know that the environment in the Champions League is different and we need them (the crowd). The best moment I remember from the Champions League was a Real Madrid-Bayern in which we had to overcome a 2-1 deficit. The crowd turned to the team."
The World Cup-winning captain is on to something. Since the 1999-2000 Champions League, home-pitch advantage is worth roughly 0.53 goals per match in the group and knockout stages of the Champions League. In the same span home-pitch advantage in the EPL, Serie A and La Liga is worth 0.43, 0.44 and 0.45 goals, respectively.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Chance Of Making Semifinals Entering Draw (2010-11 Champions League)
<TABLE><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Team</TD><TD>Percentage</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Barcelona</TD><TD>78.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Real Madrid</TD><TD>65.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chelsea</TD><TD>54.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Man Utd</TD><TD>52.6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Inter Milan</TD><TD>42.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Schalke</TD><TD>38.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tottenham</TD><TD>35.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Shakhtar Donetsk</TD><TD>32.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=2>>> According to ESPN's Soccer Power Index</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Simply put, home-pitch advantage is worth about 20 percent more in Champions League than in Europe's top domestic leagues. This should give teams like Barcelona an even greater bump as they have a well above average home-pitch benefit.
At this stage there are no restrictions on which club it could be drawn against, so each squad has an equal chance of being matched up with any of the remaining seven. Therefore by averaging each club's chances across opponents you can find each club's chance of advancing to the semis.
Of course, the results of the draw could change these numbers significantly.
Not surprisingly Barca tops this list. As we mentioned last week, they have the best offensive, defensive and overall SPI rating. If Barcelona was a country you could make an argument it would be the best international squad as well. While all clubs should hope to avoid Barca this round, eventually someone will have to knock off the giants if they hope to win Europe's premier club competition.
Albert Larcada is an analytics specialist in ESPN's Stats and Information group. He does advanced statistical research with the intention of better modeling and forecasting sporting events and leagues. Among other analytics projects he maintains, advances, and writes about ESPN's successful Soccer Power Index (SPI) algorithm.
