Baltimore vs New Orleans on 11/07 by blackwiseguy
27
FINAL
13
Game Baltimore
-1 -110
WIN
Won 4.55
Handicapper Analysis
0
If you check out my weekly NFL Underdogs column, you’ll see I took the points with the New Orleans Saints earlier in the week at +3, but with this spread on the move, the best of the number is gone. If you aren’t marching with the Saints, then this player prop is for you.
With Lamar Jackson’s two top targets likely out of action (and possibly WR Demarcus Robinson as well) and the Saints' run defense looking to lock down a hampered Baltimore ground game, receiver Devin Duvernay steps up as a key member of this Baltimore Ravens offense Monday night.
Duvernay enters Week 9 with a receiving yards total set as low as 43.5 yards but will likely see an increase in snaps and targets against the Saints, simply due to the fact that Baltimore is running low on receiving options.
Duvernay is averaging about 39 yards through the air per game and has gone Over his receiving yards prop in five of eight games this season, despite some lower target totals. His tallest yardage prop total was 40.5 yards in Week 5 and Week 6 and his last two prop numbers were 35.5 yards.
This slight bump to 43.5 yards O/U vs. NOLA doesn’t reflect the potential uptick in activity Duvernay will draw with those other guys out. And if New Orleans can stymie the Ravens’ run game, Jackson may have no choice but to let it fly on Monday night.
The 5-foot-11 speedster is versatile and bounces from the outside to the slot, offering quick hits and yards after the catch as well as a deeper threat. Duvernay showed that explosiveness with a 31-yard diving catch against the Browns in Week 7 and now comes to the fast indoor track of the Superdome.
The Saints’ defense is notoriously stingy against the run, but its passing defense ranks out 17th in EPA allowed per dropback and will be without shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore, who would have drawn Duvernay in coverage.
In my opinion, Duvernay’s current yardage Over/Under prop doesn’t accurately reflect how much he’ll be counted on Monday night. This prop is as high as 46.5 yards at some books, so shop for the lowest number you can find.
With Lamar Jackson’s two top targets likely out of action (and possibly WR Demarcus Robinson as well) and the Saints' run defense looking to lock down a hampered Baltimore ground game, receiver Devin Duvernay steps up as a key member of this Baltimore Ravens offense Monday night.
Duvernay enters Week 9 with a receiving yards total set as low as 43.5 yards but will likely see an increase in snaps and targets against the Saints, simply due to the fact that Baltimore is running low on receiving options.
Duvernay is averaging about 39 yards through the air per game and has gone Over his receiving yards prop in five of eight games this season, despite some lower target totals. His tallest yardage prop total was 40.5 yards in Week 5 and Week 6 and his last two prop numbers were 35.5 yards.
This slight bump to 43.5 yards O/U vs. NOLA doesn’t reflect the potential uptick in activity Duvernay will draw with those other guys out. And if New Orleans can stymie the Ravens’ run game, Jackson may have no choice but to let it fly on Monday night.
The 5-foot-11 speedster is versatile and bounces from the outside to the slot, offering quick hits and yards after the catch as well as a deeper threat. Duvernay showed that explosiveness with a 31-yard diving catch against the Browns in Week 7 and now comes to the fast indoor track of the Superdome.
The Saints’ defense is notoriously stingy against the run, but its passing defense ranks out 17th in EPA allowed per dropback and will be without shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore, who would have drawn Duvernay in coverage.
In my opinion, Duvernay’s current yardage Over/Under prop doesn’t accurately reflect how much he’ll be counted on Monday night. This prop is as high as 46.5 yards at some books, so shop for the lowest number you can find.
