Florian matches up perfect against BJ. If you watch the Huerta fight, his footwork and step-ins/pushes make it extremely hard to execute a takedown unless you are a huge wrestler like Sherk or Diego.
So that likely leaves this one a mostly standing fight where I think Florian has an edge thanks to his kicks and movement over Penn's jab. Just because BJ beat up on Sean Sherk and his tiny arms and iffy boxing doesn't mean he's an elite striker. The fact of the matter is that BJ really only knocks people out with knees when they are going for a takedown and I find it unlikely Florian will try to take this one to the ground often. If he does, it's likely in the later rounds when Penn is gassing and Florian wants to steal a round.
Putting Florian as a slight favorite isn't crazy at all when you figure out the strengths/weaknesses of each fighter and look past who has the big name recognition. Penn is like 13-5 in his MMA career and is far from unbeatable.
Penn's five losses were to the top lightweight in the world at the time (Pulver), GSP (lbs. 4 lbs.) the best fighter alive today, Machida a guy who has gone many fights without being hit, and Matt Hughes who he thoroughly dominated until he broke his rib. Kenny Florian has not beaten a fighter yet who is half way comparable to any of them.
Jake-
Since this number is more than a dollar off I assume you are going to unload on it for your biggest play of the year. I mean thats what I would do if I was so certain one guy was going to win and I was getting +195 on a guy who I thought should be -125'ish.
Since this number is more than a dollar off I assume you are going to unload on it for your biggest play of the year. I mean thats what I would do if I was so certain one guy was going to win and I was getting +195 on a guy who I thought should be -125'ish.
I would not draw to much from what can or can not be done against Huerta. He is a glorified brawler who made his UFC record against a lot of tomato cans.
BJ has heavy hands for LW division, very good footwork and boxing, excellent takedown defese, good defense of kicks, and an iron chin. Add this up and the recipe becomes BJ stalking Kenny around the ring. Kenny will find out that he can't hurt BJ as much as he gets hurt in the close in exchanges......and either makes a Bisping like mistake for the "posterized" KO or he gets softened up to the point where he tries to go to the ground or ends up there to be finished.
Sorry, this just smells like another fight where a guy is being built up as a real contender only for everyone to realize in hindsight that he was not on the level of the chanp.
I don't think Franklin/Quarry is a good comparison at all. Franklin has knockout power in his hands and BJ doesn't. Quarry is a brawler with knockout power while Florian is a technician that uses a large amount of kicks. I don't think that's a good fight to reference to prove a point.
We'll just have to wait til fight time brother. :toast:
