Same here, but, the more I think about it, the more I like the over and exactos
Over - I don't foresee less than 9 games in any set. Should be a ton of held serves, breaks at a premium. And I don't see either guy winning in 3. 4 sets is likely to be 41-45 games.
Consider this:
Tie break in first set +157, that's quite low.
Tie break in Match -500.
Match Service breaks over 5.5 is -125
Over 3.5 sets -195
So, all that makes me believe there's value in over 42.5 games at only -108
Exactos
Milos in 4 = +605
Milos in 5 = +665
A unit on each effectively pays +505 or +565 with double the risk. Hmmmm....
Trying to narrow this down. Only got 3.5 more hours....
last semi final aussie match
Milos Raonic +4 -107 handicap. I played this for a good amount.
Over 42 -108
Milos Raonic ML +240
my thinking on it is I think Milos can break Murray in a couple games surprisingly. The focus will be on Murray breaking Milos but I think Milos is in his opponents service games more than he's ever been. That should put the pressure on Murray to have to hold uncomfortably. If he gets broke he might start throwing his hissy fit. Milos used to crack in these situations but the fact that he didn't against Wawa when it looked he would, giving up a 2-0 set lead.. keep in mind one of Wawarinka's best surface is also this tournament.. He got over the hump beating Stan. This is now house money for Milos. I think the pressure is more on Murray to try to finally win this tournament after being runner up four times.
go Milos
Milos Raonic +4 -107 handicap. I played this for a good amount.
Over 42 -108
Milos Raonic ML +240
my thinking on it is I think Milos can break Murray in a couple games surprisingly. The focus will be on Murray breaking Milos but I think Milos is in his opponents service games more than he's ever been. That should put the pressure on Murray to have to hold uncomfortably. If he gets broke he might start throwing his hissy fit. Milos used to crack in these situations but the fact that he didn't against Wawa when it looked he would, giving up a 2-0 set lead.. keep in mind one of Wawarinka's best surface is also this tournament.. He got over the hump beating Stan. This is now house money for Milos. I think the pressure is more on Murray to try to finally win this tournament after being runner up four times.
go Milos
I would be worried about the spread if I felt milos didn't have a chance in murrays service games. Because then so much pressure would be on every point in milos service game. And with the great returning ability of andy Murray it would be inivitable murray would break milos. But I think this is a different matchup than their recent matches. I think milos can flip the script from what I've seen from him.
15 sets played between these 2 career starting in 2012
3 (7-6) - 2 won by Raonic
3 (7-5) - 1 won by Raonic
5 (6-4) - 1 won by Raonic
3 (6-3) - 2 won by Raonic
1 (6-2) - 0 won by Raonic
Thought that was interesting... Raonic has won at least 4 games against Murray in 13 out of 15 career sets.
Like the angle Seer mentioned also about looking ahead to an impossible Djokovic. Murray has been runner-up in 4 of the last 6 Aussie Opens - 3 of those losses to Novak. How can he not already be thinking ahead.
Combine that with Raonic's improvements and Murray's off court distractions (Kim due in 2 weeks, Father in law collapses during a match), seems like the perfect storm favoring Raonic.
3 (7-6) - 2 won by Raonic
3 (7-5) - 1 won by Raonic
5 (6-4) - 1 won by Raonic
3 (6-3) - 2 won by Raonic
1 (6-2) - 0 won by Raonic
Thought that was interesting... Raonic has won at least 4 games against Murray in 13 out of 15 career sets.
Like the angle Seer mentioned also about looking ahead to an impossible Djokovic. Murray has been runner-up in 4 of the last 6 Aussie Opens - 3 of those losses to Novak. How can he not already be thinking ahead.
Combine that with Raonic's improvements and Murray's off court distractions (Kim due in 2 weeks, Father in law collapses during a match), seems like the perfect storm favoring Raonic.
