Aussie OPEN 2012 Grand Slam

[ARUKIDNME]

Just using one thread for the whole tournament.

Record
0-0

1st Play: Andy Murray #4 vs. Ryan Harrison #77 - Monday Jan 16 (7:00pm ET)

Murray WINS 3-1 in sets (+330)

Murray is -3300 to win this match. These players have never played each other at an ATP World Tour, Grand Slam or Davis Cup main draw event.

Harrison needs to take control from the start, if not Murray will dominate. Murry is the more experienced player but Harry can surprise you and if he can slow Murray down from the get-go he may give him some trouble.

Let's face it, this is a mismatch and Murry should go through but Harrison can surprise you and will have some fight in him. I think its enough to win one game and there is value in this line.

!~))!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Record
0-0

2nd Play: Juan Carlos Ferrero #48 vs. Viktor Troicki #23 - Tuesday January 17 (2:00am ET)

JC Ferrero vs. V Troicki OVER 37.5 Games (+109)

This small DOG on the Over/Under looks interesting.

I like to go back to the US Open and see how far they went in their matches.

Vik was out Round 1 in 5 Sets.

JC went the distance in both the 1st and 2nd rounds. The 3rd round saw his opponent retire in the 2nd set and he lost in 45 games in the 4th Round.

These guys grind it out and thats what will happen again today. This will go the distance. It's a grand slam and even though this is a classic Age vs Youth scenario..................

It should still go the 5 sets.

!~))!

 

[JohnMolson]

very nice work..2-0 :money8:

 

[davisttennis]

My guy wont take any total bets. whatever! whats your take on any of the ML that are +170 to -170. For anyone reading I really like the over on Isner/Nalbandiant 41 1/2 games. Thanks for starting the thread

 

[ARUKIDNME]

My guy wont take any total bets. whatever! whats your take on any of the ML that are +170 to -170. For anyone reading I really like the over on Isner/Nalbandiant 41 1/2 games. Thanks for starting the thread

I like Isner (+110) but he needs to work fast and get rid of Nalbandian in 4. Isner is in great form. If this goes the distance we could see an upset. I want to watch this one it should be a doozie.

BOL. I think taking the dog here is worth a shot if you have to bet this game.

Here is a site I use to get up to the second scores that you guys might want to use.

***LINK***

I will be posting my Round 2 plays in an hour. I was looking at this to go OVER but have to look deeper before I commit.

!~))!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Record
2-0
+4.39 Units

1st Play: WIN
2nd Play: WIN


3rd Play: John Isner #17 vs. David Nalbandian #87 – Tuesday Jan 17th (9:00pm ET)

Isner WINS (+110)

Isner WINS 3-1 in sets (+450)

These players have never played each other in Qualifying, or at a Challenger or Futures event.</SPAN>

Isner has been playing some pretty good tennis lately and he has been advancing quite well though the tourney’s he’s entered.

Nalb had his opponent retire in his 1st round match and many feel that this extra rest is an advantage. I disagree! This early in the Tournament is no place to rest. These matches test your metal and for the life of me I can’t see how the Argentinean is favoured in this match.

Isner needs to win early points, avoid second serves and force the more experienced Nalb to make unforced errors.

Have to think this goes to four games and the fact that Isner is a slight dog makes it even more interesting.

!~))!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

4th Play: Lleyton Hewitt #181 vs. Andy Roddick #16 – Wednesday Jan 18th (7:00pm ET)

Roddick Wins 3-1 in sets (+275)

These players have never played each other in Qualifying, or at a Challenger or Futures event.

I watched the Roddick match and he was displaying flashes of brilliance for an old dog. Didn’t catch the Hewitt match but I read that he had to really dig deep to get the job done.

I just think that Roddick has the edge in this match and he definitely has the edge in serve. Hewitt will try to stretch each game with long points and Roddick will try to shorten the games. Who will succeed???

Roddick will prevail and if he can keep the Aussie chasing the ball back and forth along the baseline he will wear him down and win it.

!~))!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Final play for Round 2 and it's on the ladies side of the Open.

5th Play: Sabine Lisicki #15 vs. Shahar Peer #37 - Wednesday Jan 18th (7:00pm ET)

Peer Wins 2-1 in sets (+275)

Lisicki had to retire in two of her last 5 matches. She really needs to avoid getting injured. She had a tough 1st match where Voegele came back to win the 2nd set to make the match interesting. Lisicki has a great serve and a powerful ground stroke that should keep her in this match.

Peer had an easy go of it against the Australian Isabella Holland. Peer’s form has been very good coming into this tournament. If she can force Lisicki to press her game she will create unforced errors and win the match.

This looks like an even match-up to me, so the fact that it will go the distance is no surprise either. Peer is too healthy, in great shape and mentally she has the edge in a match that will go the distance in a slugfest or catfight (take your pick).

!~))!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

(Approx. 11:00pm ET Start Time)
3rd Play: John Isner #17 vs. David Nalbandian #87 – Tuesday Jan 17th

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Record
2-0-1
+4.49 Units

1st Play: WIN
2nd Play: WIN
3rd Play: PUSH

For those that pop in with curiousity; I wanted to comment on the John Isner vs. David Nalbandian match from last night.

What an amazing match. It was a marathon and to think it took place in Round 2. This is by far the match of the tournament (to date) and it will take something special to beat it. Four aganizing hours and it took Isner a 7-6 tie breaker to win and move on.

I missed the set bet but it evened out with Isner winning. Still ahead on the 3rd play. I think we'll see something similar in the ladies match Play #4 this evening.

Have a great day!

 

[varkeyboy]

What else you got? Good luck Aruk!!

 

[tk2wndw]

I was on Isner with you last night, what a struggle that was. Walking around like a zombie today at work, working on about 4 hours sleep.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

I was on Isner with you last night, what a struggle that was. Walking around like a zombie today at work, working on about 4 hours sleep.

LOL. I was hooked after the 1st set and stayed up to watch it too. I have to confess I nodded off a couple of times but I saw the majority of it.

Everything I was worried about can true. Isner had to avoid 2nd serves and he had trouble early and then started dropping Aces at the right time.

I'm looking at a couple of other matches but it's hard to find good value in the early rounds. I know I missed a couple of opportunities but it really gets easier for me as we move on in the tourney. I see Nadal leaving in the semi's but that's too early to say. I have Joker to win it all again. Nadal is a clay guy and Joker loves Australia.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Adding to my 5th Play..........................

5A Play: Sabine Lisicki #15 vs. Shahar Peer #37 - Wednesday Jan 18th (9:30pm ET Approx.)

Peer Wins (+110)

Once again, this is not the popular choice but she's struggling lately with her injuries. Lisicki is guilty of trying to hit the ball too hard and that causes her to overhit her shots. I think we'll see alot of that tonight. Her serve is an asset but if the wheels start to come off late she's done.

Lisicki had to retire in two of her last 5 matches. She really needs to avoid getting injured. She had a tough 1st match where Voegele came back to win the 2nd set to make the match interesting. Lisicki has a great serve and a powerful ground stroke that should keep her in this match.

Peer had an easy go of it against the Australian Isabella Holland. Peer’s form has been very good coming into this tournament. If she can force Lisicki to press her game she will create unforced errors and win the match.

This looks like an even match-up to me, so the fact that it will go the distance is no surprise either. Peer is too healthy, in great shape and mentally she has the edge in a match that will go the distance in a slugfest or catfight (take your pick).

!~))!

 

[UseLogic]

4th Play: Lleyton Hewitt #181 vs. Andy Roddick #16 – Wednesday Jan 18th (7:00pm ET)

Roddick Wins 3-1 in sets (+275)

I got the over 38.5 on this one. I think this will be one of those Hewitt 4 to 5 set match with scores like 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-3. The crowd is gonna be behind Hewitt and both players will be pumpled. BOL with this one!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

4th Play: Lleyton Hewitt #181 vs. Andy Roddick #16 – Wednesday Jan 18th (7:00pm ET)

Roddick Wins 3-1 in sets (+275)

I got the over 38.5 on this one. I think this will be one of those Hewitt 4 to 5 set match with scores like 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-3. The crowd is gonna be behind Hewitt and both players will be pumpled. BOL with this one!

The Over should have hit (I Agree) if Roddick didn't get hurt. No way Hewitt should have advanced but that's part of the game. Hewitt likes to keeps stretching the game, makes for long matches. NO ACTION on this due to the Roddick injury

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Record
2-0-1
+4.49 Units

1st Play: WIN
2nd Play: WIN
3rd Play: PUSH
4th Play: NO ACTION (Roddick Retired Injured)
5th Play: LOSS (I read Lisicki all wrong)

+2.49 Units

Working on Round 3!!!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Record
2-1-2
+2.49 Units

1st Play: WIN
2nd Play: WIN
3rd Play: PUSH
4th Play: NO ACTION (Roddick Retired Injured)
5th Play: LOSS (I read Lisicki all wrong)

There is alot of matches I like but there are still too many steep odds to make it worth the risk.
I prefer the Dogs if I can find any I like.

6th Play: Nicolas Almergo #10 vs. Stanislas Wawrinka #22 (My best estimate is Approx. 12:30am ET, 4:30pm Local time)

OVER 38.5 Games (-110) {110 to win 100}

Wawrinka WIN 3-2 in sets (+550)

Almergo WIN 3-2 in sets (+700)

Almagro plays a predictable style of tennis that Wawrinka has had little trouble dealing with in the past (see below). He is very pesky and is a very quick mover on the court often fetching almost impossible shots and making great saves.

Wawrinka plays a very aggressive type of tennis and has equal strength in his serve, forhand and backhand. He's a strong guy and can out power you on the court. I heard he broke 4 or 5 of his opponents racquets last match. That's unusually high.

It's being played in the late afternoon so I expect the heat to play some what of a factor. Either way I expect this to be a long match since both these players know each other well and their previous matches were long ones too. I think the heat and their knowledge of each other will only help to stretch this one out.

I decided to play both sides of the 3-2 game proposition. If it goes 5 games I win either way. All wagers are 1 unit.

HEAD to HEAD <<<LINK​

!~))!​

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[ARUKIDNME]

7th Play: Christina McHale #42 vs. Jelena Jankovic #13 (Approx. Jan 19 at 11:59pm ET)

Christina McHale WIN 2-1 in sets (+600)

Christina McHale WIN (+250)

I was wrong about Peer but I'm confident I will redeem myself here.

I am expecting this match to go the distance. Three tough sets and an upset to top it off.

JJ is struggling with her serve and if she has to rely on her second serve...she's done! I expect to see Christina try to prolong the rallies and wear JJ down. Jankovic needs to stay composed and in the moment because McHale will try her best to upset her and that's when Jelena loses control of the match.

McHale is so much fun to watch. Her last match was exciting and she had the whole crowd behind her. CMc is attack minded and will use her most powerful weapon.....her fore-hand to keep the ball deep on JJ. Her serves are also a weak spot and that's why I think this one goes the distance.

If you look strictly at WTA rankings then you have to give the edge to Jankovic. She has a winning back-hand and will punish McHale if given an opening to use it. But with both players struggling on first serves and they both have weak 2nd serves I can see alot of unforced errors that will translate into a tight 3 set match.

I think I am going to go with the upset here, the crowd will be on McHale's side, that will disrupt Jankovic's composure and that's why I am taking the dog to win outright in a 3 set match.

!~))!​

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Record
2-3-2
-2.61 Units

1st Play:WIN
2nd Play:WIN
3rd Play:PUSH
4th Play:NO ACTION (Roddick Retired Injured)
5th Play: LOSS (I read Lisicki all wrong)
6th Play: LOSS
7th Play: LOSS

I held off until the finals. I hate playing big favorite so I try to find value in long dogs. I made a couple of wagers on the Men’s Semi’s and won but never posted. (Fedex to win the first set and Joker/Murray Over 37.5)

Both players have met 6 times and have a split at 3-3.

Women’s FINAL

Victoria Azarenka vs. Maria Sharapova

Maria Sharapova WIN (+120) 5 Units

The winner will be the new #1 in the WTA rankings, so there is a lot more at stake than just the Grand Slam. It will afford them preferred seeding in future tournaments, sponsorship $$ and all that jazz.

This is Vinka’s first Gran Slam Final so I’m not sure she can handle the pressure if she goes down in the first set. Azarenka has a power packed forehand, solid backhand; she challenges every point and hasn’t lost this year...........YET!

Sharapova has been here before and won the 2008 Australian Open. In fact she’s also won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. She hits it hard from both sides, has a quick backhand and has been honing her serve which has become an asset. I have to admit that I thought she was going to lose to the “Dark Horse” in this race lefty Petra Kvitova.

I believe this comes down to who is more mentally prepared and who can handle the pressure of a Slam Final? If you start to lose focus you start to hit a key stat that tilts the scale in this match; Unforced Errors. I need Sharpo to serve well and put Vinka out of contention. It will take Maria a few games to warm up, but I have full confidence in backing Grand Slam experience. This should go the distance.

!~))!​