being more of a recreational gambler I find it diffuicult to stay conservative and use fundamental betting practices all the time, but I can't help but notice that the public does indeed take it in the pants quite often, especially in the second half of the season. Thinking about the Denver/Kansas City game got me thinking about teams' ats records. Kansas City is 8-4 this year, and was ranked #7? on ESPN's power rankings week 1. The combined record of the top 10 ESPN teams at week 1 is 66-50 ats so far. Since it seems the books have finally balanced their lines this year, that record should definitley balance out you'd think. I'm just wondering if there are any sytems any of you guys use that are based on teams ats records from say this year, or do you throw them out the window when you get to the last few weeks of the season. AS you can see Chicago, Cincinati, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Indy, KC, New England, Phily, and the Titans have great records ats. Also, the top 10 passing touchdown teams from this year's preseason are 76-49 ats
, but, it looks like it would have ben profitable for at least the last 3 weeks to bet against those teams.
Team W-L-T W-L-T O-U-P For Against
ARIZONA 4-8-0 3-9-0 6-6-0 13.8 28.1
ATLANTA 3-9-0 2-10-0 6-6-0 18.4 27.3
BALTIMORE 6-4-2 7-5-0 8-4-0 25 19.8
BUFFALO 4-6-2 5-7-0 1-11-0 16.4 16.2
CAROLINA 5-7-0 8-4-0 7-4-1 19.5 19.1
CHICAGO 7-5-0 5-7-0 5-7-0 18.2 20.6
CINCINNATI 9-3-0 7-5-0 5-7-0 22.3 22.2
CLEVELAND 4-8-0 4-8-0 5-7-0 16 18.7
DALLAS 7-4-1 8-4-0 6-6-0 18.8 17.3
DENVER 6-6-0 7-5-0 5-7-0 23.2 17.2
DETROIT 7-5-0 4-8-0 4-8-0 16.8 23.3
GREEN BAY 6-6-0 6-6-0 6-6-0 24.8 21.2
HOUSTON 7-5-0 5-7-0 8-4-0 17.6 24.2
INDIANAPOLIS 7-4-1 9-3-0 8-4-0 28.6 21.2
JACKSONVILLE 6-5-1 3-9-0 7-5-0 16.8 22
KANSAS CITY 8-4-0 11-1-0 7-5-0 30.1 18.5
MIAMI 6-6-0 8-4-0 4-8-0 20.1 15.9
MINNESOTA 6-6-0 7-5-0 7-4-1 25.8 24.6
NEW ENGLAND 10-2-0 10-2-0 6-6-0 21.4 17.4
NEW ORLEANS 6-6-0 6-6-0 6-6-0 21.3 23.2
NY GIANTS 3-7-2 4-8-0 4-8-0 16.8 22.2
NY JETS 3-6-3 5-7-0 5-7-0 19.5 19.8
OAKLAND 2-9-1 3-9-0 4-7-1 18.5 23.2
PHILADELPHIA 8-4-0 9-3-0 6-6-0 20.4 17.7
PITTSBURGH 5-7-0 4-8-0 7-5-0 18.6 23.1
SAN DIEGO 4-8-0 2-10-0 8-4-0 19.4 28.5
SAN FRANCISCO 5-6-1 5-7-0 4-8-0 20.7 19.2
SEATTLE 5-6-1 8-4-0 6-6-0 26.9 19.9
ST LOUIS 7-4-1 9-3-0 9-3-0 28.9 20.5
TAMPA BAY 4-7-1 5-7-0 4-8-0 19.2 15.9
TENNESSEE 8-4-0 9-3-0 5-7-0 26.7 19.3
WASHINGTON 5-6-1 4-8-0 7-4-1 19.7 23.3
2003 Power Rankings: Week 1
Rank Team Rec. Comment
1 Buccaneers 12-4-0 Most of the key players return and with another year for Gruden to get the offense going, all systems in Tampa appear to be on go for another trip to the Super Bowl.
2 Eagles 12-4-0 Eagles fans aren't looking for another trip to the NFC championship game -- it's all about the Super Bowl.
3 Raiders 11-5-0 If the Raiders can keep Rich Gannon healthy, there's definitely enough left in the tank for another Super Bowl run.
4 Titans 11-5-0 Steve McNair looks great and can carry Tennessee a long way. One cause for concern, this team isn't deep and any big injuries could sink them.
5 Rams 7-9-0 An easy schedule and a healthy Kurt Warner means the Rams should be back among the NFC's elite.
6 Patriots 9-7-0 Bill Belichick usually knows what he's doing. But cutting Lawyer Milloy is a real head-scratcher.
7 Dolphins 9-7-0 Brutal December schedule (at New England, vs. Philly, at Buffalo and vs. N.Y. Jets) could mean another late-season collapse for the Dolphins.
8 Packers 12-4-0 Minnesota will be better, but the Packers are still clearly the class of the NFC North.
9 Chiefs 8-8-0 Given the preseason hype surrounding the Chiefs, folks assume that Priest Holmes will be healthy. Without Holmes, the Chiefs aren't a playoff team.
10 Colts 10-6-0 Edgerrin James looks like he's back, which means the Colts should be back among the NFL's highest-scoring teams.
11 Steelers 10-5-1 Pittsburgh fans better get used to seeing the ball in the air. This version of the Steelers will live with the pass on offense.
12 Bills 8-8-0 If offseason additions lift defense from No. 27 in points per game allowed into the top 15, Buffalo will be playoff bound.
13 Falcons 9-6-1 Doug Johnson is a decent QB, but the Falcons clearly take a step back without Michael Vick in the lineup. The question is if the step will be too big to overcome once Vick is back?
14 Saints 9-7-0 The Saints have the offense to contend, but the defense has to be better than it was in 2002 or it'll be another disappointing season in the Big Easy.
15 Giants 10-6-0 There's no doubt Jeremy Shockey is one of the most talented TEs in the NFL. But he better bring his A game every week, because his jersey might as well have a huge bull's-eye on the back.
16 Broncos 9-7-0 Is Jake Plummer the answer? Mike Shanahan is betting his reputation as a genius that he is.
17 Seahawks 7-9-0 With Ray Rhodes in town, the defense should improve its No. 28 ranking last season. Add in an explosive offense and Seattle could compete for a playoff spot.
18 49ers 10-6-0 It's too easy to say, but Jeff Garcia carries the 49ers' hopes on his aching back. If he goes down, the 49ers' season goes down, too.
19 Vikings 6-10-0 The Vikings need Daunte Culpepper, who has thrown just 32 TDs in the last two seasons, to return to his 33 TD form of 2000.
20 Browns 9-7-0 With four receivers with 37 or more catches, Kelly Holcomb will have plenty of targets to throw the ball to.
21 Ravens 7-9-0 Defense should return to dominating form, but the offense is probably still a year away from making the Ravens a serious contender.
22 Panthers 7-9-0 We want to pick the Panthers as a surprise team, but we're just not sure how much better they can be in the tough NFC South.
23 Chargers 8-8-0 David Boston -- 260 pounds at WR -- was literally a BIG acquisition. But can he stay healthy all year?
24 Redskins 7-9-0 Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts at RB? Not exactly confidence inspiring.
25 Jets 9-7-0 The Jets looked like an 8-8 with Chad Pennington. Without him? 7-9 or 6-10 sounds likely.
26 Bengals 2-14-0 Bengals seem to be headed in the right direction with Marvin Lewis in charge. Still, we're not picking them for anything until we see it on the field.
27 Bears 4-12-0 13-3 in 2000 to 4-12 last season. The Bears will be closer to that 4-12 team this season.
28 Cowboys 5-11-0 Bill Parcells will make the Cowboys better. It just might not be this season.
29 Jaguars 6-10-0 The Jaguars look like a team that is close to rebuilding. That means Byron Leftwich will be playing before too long.
30 Lions 3-13-0 Early line on rookie of the year: The Lions are going to have to throw the ball a lot, meaning lots of catches for Charles Rogers.
31 Cardinals 5-11-0 Who are Larry Foster, Bryan Gilmore, Anquan Boldin and Jason McAddley? Arizona's top four receivers, who combined have 62 career catches.
32 Texans 4-12-0 David Carr and Andre Johnson look good for the future. But the Texans will still have trouble keeping Carr on his feet.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on December 03, 2003 at 10:35 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on December 03, 2003 at 11:58 PM.]
Team W-L-T W-L-T O-U-P For Against
ARIZONA 4-8-0 3-9-0 6-6-0 13.8 28.1
ATLANTA 3-9-0 2-10-0 6-6-0 18.4 27.3
BALTIMORE 6-4-2 7-5-0 8-4-0 25 19.8
BUFFALO 4-6-2 5-7-0 1-11-0 16.4 16.2
CAROLINA 5-7-0 8-4-0 7-4-1 19.5 19.1
CHICAGO 7-5-0 5-7-0 5-7-0 18.2 20.6
CINCINNATI 9-3-0 7-5-0 5-7-0 22.3 22.2
CLEVELAND 4-8-0 4-8-0 5-7-0 16 18.7
DALLAS 7-4-1 8-4-0 6-6-0 18.8 17.3
DENVER 6-6-0 7-5-0 5-7-0 23.2 17.2
DETROIT 7-5-0 4-8-0 4-8-0 16.8 23.3
GREEN BAY 6-6-0 6-6-0 6-6-0 24.8 21.2
HOUSTON 7-5-0 5-7-0 8-4-0 17.6 24.2
INDIANAPOLIS 7-4-1 9-3-0 8-4-0 28.6 21.2
JACKSONVILLE 6-5-1 3-9-0 7-5-0 16.8 22
KANSAS CITY 8-4-0 11-1-0 7-5-0 30.1 18.5
MIAMI 6-6-0 8-4-0 4-8-0 20.1 15.9
MINNESOTA 6-6-0 7-5-0 7-4-1 25.8 24.6
NEW ENGLAND 10-2-0 10-2-0 6-6-0 21.4 17.4
NEW ORLEANS 6-6-0 6-6-0 6-6-0 21.3 23.2
NY GIANTS 3-7-2 4-8-0 4-8-0 16.8 22.2
NY JETS 3-6-3 5-7-0 5-7-0 19.5 19.8
OAKLAND 2-9-1 3-9-0 4-7-1 18.5 23.2
PHILADELPHIA 8-4-0 9-3-0 6-6-0 20.4 17.7
PITTSBURGH 5-7-0 4-8-0 7-5-0 18.6 23.1
SAN DIEGO 4-8-0 2-10-0 8-4-0 19.4 28.5
SAN FRANCISCO 5-6-1 5-7-0 4-8-0 20.7 19.2
SEATTLE 5-6-1 8-4-0 6-6-0 26.9 19.9
ST LOUIS 7-4-1 9-3-0 9-3-0 28.9 20.5
TAMPA BAY 4-7-1 5-7-0 4-8-0 19.2 15.9
TENNESSEE 8-4-0 9-3-0 5-7-0 26.7 19.3
WASHINGTON 5-6-1 4-8-0 7-4-1 19.7 23.3
2003 Power Rankings: Week 1
Rank Team Rec. Comment
1 Buccaneers 12-4-0 Most of the key players return and with another year for Gruden to get the offense going, all systems in Tampa appear to be on go for another trip to the Super Bowl.
2 Eagles 12-4-0 Eagles fans aren't looking for another trip to the NFC championship game -- it's all about the Super Bowl.
3 Raiders 11-5-0 If the Raiders can keep Rich Gannon healthy, there's definitely enough left in the tank for another Super Bowl run.
4 Titans 11-5-0 Steve McNair looks great and can carry Tennessee a long way. One cause for concern, this team isn't deep and any big injuries could sink them.
5 Rams 7-9-0 An easy schedule and a healthy Kurt Warner means the Rams should be back among the NFC's elite.
6 Patriots 9-7-0 Bill Belichick usually knows what he's doing. But cutting Lawyer Milloy is a real head-scratcher.
7 Dolphins 9-7-0 Brutal December schedule (at New England, vs. Philly, at Buffalo and vs. N.Y. Jets) could mean another late-season collapse for the Dolphins.
8 Packers 12-4-0 Minnesota will be better, but the Packers are still clearly the class of the NFC North.
9 Chiefs 8-8-0 Given the preseason hype surrounding the Chiefs, folks assume that Priest Holmes will be healthy. Without Holmes, the Chiefs aren't a playoff team.
10 Colts 10-6-0 Edgerrin James looks like he's back, which means the Colts should be back among the NFL's highest-scoring teams.
11 Steelers 10-5-1 Pittsburgh fans better get used to seeing the ball in the air. This version of the Steelers will live with the pass on offense.
12 Bills 8-8-0 If offseason additions lift defense from No. 27 in points per game allowed into the top 15, Buffalo will be playoff bound.
13 Falcons 9-6-1 Doug Johnson is a decent QB, but the Falcons clearly take a step back without Michael Vick in the lineup. The question is if the step will be too big to overcome once Vick is back?
14 Saints 9-7-0 The Saints have the offense to contend, but the defense has to be better than it was in 2002 or it'll be another disappointing season in the Big Easy.
15 Giants 10-6-0 There's no doubt Jeremy Shockey is one of the most talented TEs in the NFL. But he better bring his A game every week, because his jersey might as well have a huge bull's-eye on the back.
16 Broncos 9-7-0 Is Jake Plummer the answer? Mike Shanahan is betting his reputation as a genius that he is.
17 Seahawks 7-9-0 With Ray Rhodes in town, the defense should improve its No. 28 ranking last season. Add in an explosive offense and Seattle could compete for a playoff spot.
18 49ers 10-6-0 It's too easy to say, but Jeff Garcia carries the 49ers' hopes on his aching back. If he goes down, the 49ers' season goes down, too.
19 Vikings 6-10-0 The Vikings need Daunte Culpepper, who has thrown just 32 TDs in the last two seasons, to return to his 33 TD form of 2000.
20 Browns 9-7-0 With four receivers with 37 or more catches, Kelly Holcomb will have plenty of targets to throw the ball to.
21 Ravens 7-9-0 Defense should return to dominating form, but the offense is probably still a year away from making the Ravens a serious contender.
22 Panthers 7-9-0 We want to pick the Panthers as a surprise team, but we're just not sure how much better they can be in the tough NFC South.
23 Chargers 8-8-0 David Boston -- 260 pounds at WR -- was literally a BIG acquisition. But can he stay healthy all year?
24 Redskins 7-9-0 Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts at RB? Not exactly confidence inspiring.
25 Jets 9-7-0 The Jets looked like an 8-8 with Chad Pennington. Without him? 7-9 or 6-10 sounds likely.
26 Bengals 2-14-0 Bengals seem to be headed in the right direction with Marvin Lewis in charge. Still, we're not picking them for anything until we see it on the field.
27 Bears 4-12-0 13-3 in 2000 to 4-12 last season. The Bears will be closer to that 4-12 team this season.
28 Cowboys 5-11-0 Bill Parcells will make the Cowboys better. It just might not be this season.
29 Jaguars 6-10-0 The Jaguars look like a team that is close to rebuilding. That means Byron Leftwich will be playing before too long.
30 Lions 3-13-0 Early line on rookie of the year: The Lions are going to have to throw the ball a lot, meaning lots of catches for Charles Rogers.
31 Cardinals 5-11-0 Who are Larry Foster, Bryan Gilmore, Anquan Boldin and Jason McAddley? Arizona's top four receivers, who combined have 62 career catches.
32 Texans 4-12-0 David Carr and Andre Johnson look good for the future. But the Texans will still have trouble keeping Carr on his feet.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on December 03, 2003 at 10:35 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on December 03, 2003 at 11:58 PM.]
