ATS Analysis of First Year Coaches...

[DoubleDigitHomeFav]

Awesome analysis.

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/ats-analysis-of-first-year-coaches-part-1/

Part 2 really opened my eyes. Great job by these guys.

 

[russ1945]

I have broken those down myself. In 2010 Jimbo Fischer of Florida St lead first yr coaches ATS at 8-6 while Charlie Strong at Louisiville and Derek Dooley at Tenn both went 7-6 ATS. No other 1st year HC had a winning record ATS.
I use goldsheet.com to compile stats like these. I just don't see a big advantage betting against a trend like this and you would have lost in 2008 & 2009. 2010 was a down year. I did not see where they differentiated from an exerienced first year coach (one who had been a HC at another school) and someone who is in their first ever HC job. Big difference in my book. It is an interesting angle but I don't know if you are going to break the bank with it.

 

[DoubleDigitHomeFav]

Part 2, they really get into the good team vs. bad conference matchup that first year coaches are frequently in. Sun Belt was 0-50. MAC and MWC not much better.

 

[DoubleDigitHomeFav]

I have broken those down myself. In 2010 Jimbo Fischer of Florida St lead first yr coaches ATS at 8-6 while Charlie Strong at Louisiville and Derek Dooley at Tenn both went 7-6 ATS. No other 1st year HC had a winning record ATS.
I use goldsheet.com to compile stats like these. I just don't see a big advantage betting against a trend like this and you would have lost in 2008 & 2009. 2010 was a down year. I did not see where they differentiated from an exerienced first year coach (one who had been a HC at another school) and someone who is in their first ever HC job. Big difference in my book. It is an interesting angle but I don't know if you are going to break the bank with it.

I like gold sheet too. I just wished they did more with coaches. These guys at Coach By The Numbers may be on to something.

On their website, you can see how Nick Saban is against Houston Nutt ATS and that will include all the schools they have been at. Gotta love technology. This is better than a typical team v. team approach.

 

[russ1945]

I will take a closer look when I get some time. Thanks

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Look at the teams and conferences we are talking about. Most are bottom feeders from the weak FBS conferences. This explains a lot.

 

[DoubleDigitHomeFav]

Look at the teams and conferences we are talking about. Most are bottom feeders from the weak FBS conferences. This explains a lot.

You know Bigdaddy, call me a moron, but I never liked betting on the LSU vs. La-Monroe games because the spreads were always so high, like 35 or 42. I always had problems trying to scale blowouts, at least mentally. This article leads me to believe that Vegas has the same problem. This trend also tells me to 'just go with it' and not ask questions. Sounds like my 7th grade PE teacher. Kidding of course!!!!

 

[rolltide]

no doubt it's a big factor which makes the Big East wide open since WVU and Pitt are the favorites. I still like Pitt since I think you can't do worse than Wannstache but gives even more credence to my sleeper pick of South Florida. USF with a great defense, 2nd year HC, and a mobile QB in Daniels that improved a ton last year. He started out with a 2/10 TD/Int ratio vs D1 and finished with a 7/4. Interesting stat on USF is they were 8-1 in games where Daniels didn't throw at least 2 INT, 0-3 when he did. If he has any consistency this year watch for the Bulls to be in the BCS

 

[DoubleDigitHomeFav]

no doubt it's a big factor which makes the Big East wide open since WVU and Pitt are the favorites. I still like Pitt since I think you can't do worse than Wannstache but gives even more credence to my sleeper pick of South Florida. USF with a great defense, 2nd year HC, and a mobile QB in Daniels that improved a ton last year. He started out with a 2/10 TD/Int ratio vs D1 and finished with a 7/4. Interesting stat on USF is they were 8-1 in games where Daniels didn't throw at least 2 INT, 0-3 when he did. If he has any consistency this year watch for the Bulls to be in the BCS

My only problem with USF is that Skip Holtz...every year he has been a head coach.....has managed to lose at least 5 games.

On a lighter note, I sure will miss ole Wandtstedtdtt and his cherry red corvette parked in the tunnel.

My pick for the Big East is WVU. I love the Holgerson skullet. He'll have a very dynamic offense and their gimmick 3-3-5 will be good enough to win the conf. imho.

 

[GoSooners]

I like WV's offense, but their defense will put them in a few shootouts. And you never what side your going to end up on in those kinds of games.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

IMO, the Big East is so wide open that Syracuse at +1300 to win the Big East is a good value wager. They return 8 players on offense. While the defense will take a hit, the Orange seem to have found themselves since Doug Marrone took over the head coaching job. In a Conference where last year's Champion lost 4 regular season games, and 2 conference games, anything can happen. If I had to wager on a Big East Champ, I would take Syracuse at +1300

 

[groundhog11]

i sound like a homer....but i think it will come down to the wvu/sfla game for the beast title....

the defense should be ok as long as they find a NT...they will move the de around creating more speed....the defense will prob get more sacks this year than in a long time....

 

[cloverleaf]

Ground Hog, you don't sound like a homer to me because I'm pretty much on the same page with you. I think it will boil down to either your WV or SF for the title. That key game will be played 12/1 in Tampa. WV won 20-6 last year in Morgantown.

I like South Florida to win the Big East this season. If Holtz can get some steady QB play out of B.J. Daniels and the defense improves as it did last year....I like the Bulls chances to take the title. South Florida has some talent and three of their four losses (Big East) were by a total of 14 points last year.

WV has a new coach and Holtz has a year under his belt. I give the advantage to SF this year for what its worth. Good thread guys.