9th- #19 Desert Party 15-1..... This is where i start to think, i better start using these guys underneath. I like the fact he has faced some huge fields in dubai and has carried the derby weight, and Regal Ransom will provide a solid pace with others, both churchill works were solid for Godolphin. primary concern here is he ran very solid going shorter, was sent off 1-5 vs regal ransom at 1 1/8 had every chance to run him down and just didnt do it. Other than Regal Ransom there is no benchmark for this guy, got the feeling if he doesnt break cleanly he will be confused in traffic and lose a ton of ground given the post draw, didnt the post draw peep realize this guy cost 2.1 Million?lol they didnt get the memo getting stuck with the 19 hole. His wet track win was only against 3 competitiors and wasnt dazzling so im not going to run out and bet him if it rains because of that.
8th- #1 West Side Bernie 30-1..... Ran a career best 101 in the Wood Memorial to be 2nd to I Want Revenge, beat a half length and retains stewie elliott. Never off the board on the dirt, so Ill throwout the Lanes End where he just didnt take to the poly. Nice race resume from the BC Juvenile to holybull, lanes end and the wood. Hes nearly always around at the finish, only knock is against who? Had I Want Revenge not balked at the start, i truly think he would have anhialated that field, not entirely convinced he can get the distance, he passed a lot of tired ones in the wood, Elliott would have to be a magician to win today but 3rd isnt out of the stratosphere.
7th- #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1.... Cant knock his closing kick at all, does best work off the pace, been on the board in last 7 and switched to a patient Mike SMith. Ran a solid 5F work over the strip, but a couple of things worry me. He has a little seattle slew pedigree but beyond that the distance will be a concern and he just doesnt get to pioneerofthenile or I want Revenge in California, all starts have been on the poly, and with such a short santa anita field it wasnt too inspiring, has been closing from small fields so he hasnt seen what far back is yet, from a benchmark standpoint he beat axel foley in cali by a length, whom Mr Fantasy beat up on at Aqueduct a few weeks back whom I want Revenge toyed with in the Gotham. Underneath only in the gimmicks.
6th- #17 Summer Bird 50-1...... Very intriguing at this price, got the lightly raced angle against him with an unknown rider. Trainer hitting at 21% and though he wasnt in contention to win the Ark Derby vs Papa Clem he was only beaten slightly over a length and has shown tremendous progress over his three starts with the longer the distance gets. Expect him to be far out of it early and hope all the dominos in front of him fall into place at a juicy price to spark up a triple. The Birdstone pedigree leads me to believe distance wont be a problem, just needs others to run erratic, like that hes been proven on dirt and not the poly, if theres a hot pace his chances expand.
5th- #6 Fresian Fire 5-1...... If the rain gods come he could be the one to beat off his splashing 7 length score in the louisiana derby over papa clem where he sat just behind him and went air-born coming home. Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez had eight belles last year and Jones ran 2nd year prior with Hard Spun so hes no stranger and says this is his last year. His work over churchill may have been too fast, should be just off join in the dances flank and take over when he wants, just a few nit-picking things: all of his dominance has come down at fairgrounds vs marginal competition, he hasnt been out in nearly 2 months, the only other layoff beyond a month for him resulted in a flop at Aqueduct. No rain and the others should collar him, if it rains it just clouds up everything, dont like his short price.
4th- #15 Dunkirk 4-1..... Think theres a great future for this guy down the line, just not seasoned. Easily Pletchers best chance this year, ran huge in the Florida Derby, nobody was going to catch Quality Road that day, they set a track record if memory recalls, he showed he likes closing into hot paces with that huge stride, but Gomez opts off. You cant miss this 3.7 million dollar big grey guy on the track, and i cant fault anyone for playing him, he will certainly make a run under Prado, just hasnt faced much from a total standpoint or fieldsize point, not a single work over the surface is confusing but still a major threat.
3rd- #16 Pioneerofthenile 4-1.... Hasnt been pretty at times but all he does since getting Gomez is win, 4-4 in some sizable races out in california. 5 for 8 lifetime and boasts wins over I Want Revenge, Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy. Gomez did have a little trouble controlling him in the santa anita derby and it didnt matter, was still the best, but if that happens today it will have an effect. Baffert has been amazing in this race, clicking at 31% in graded stakes this year. This will be a MUCH larger field and its not on the poly. He will have to prove it, if he can produce the way I want Revenge did on the switch then we may have one hell of a grudge match turning for home, his daddy Empire Maker did good things, cant throw him out even with the poly concerns.
2nd- #7 Papa Clem 20-1..... Think this guy is peeking at the exact right time for Bejarano (22%). He wasnt horrible on the poly or on the lead but that Arkansas Derby was an eye-opener. he was able to rate him, first time on the (non-slop) dirt and rallied willingly to beat Old Fashioned. He will pack on another 8lbs but Arkansas showed me distance shouldnt be a problem. Neither work was all that special but I wont let that concern me. Has faced quality stock in Pioneerofthenile, I want Revenge and Fresian Fire. Just appears to me hes setup up for a huge effort on saturday.
1st *******Winner of this years kentucky Derby **** #13 I WANT REVENGE 3-1........ has been nothing short of remarkable since the switch to dirt, blowing them away in the Gotham with something left, then after a horrendous start even against a weak field to recover, find a seam and burst through like he did in the Wood Memorial. He proved his versatility and the confidence in 19yr old Joe Talamo is borderline cocky but this kid can win anywhere. Hes been beaten in the past by a few in here but it was over the poly. I totally feel this guy is legit, only 1 in the field with back to back triple digits, along with a bullet work here on the 28th, deserving favorite, keep him out of harms way and watch what happens today.
was hoping to look back at the form and find something that i missed, and have yet to find it, lol. Totally out of this world, i was right about one thing, the change in tactics, but what the hell, where did that come from. He will not win the preakness. I bet Chantel Sutherland is shitting her pants as we speak.
