MREAST -
There is a fundamental difference between being able to have some success running the ball, and dominating on the ground. Looking at top 5 rushing teams will easily be over teams every year, because top 5 rushing teams are usually offensive forces. If you run or pass the ball well enough to be a top 5 team, you are usually an outstanding offense that is moving the football and will obviously result in overs.
When you are a top 5 team in rushing, you usually have the natural ability to pummel your opponents on the ground, wear down a defense and easily go over the total by the end of the game against a tired defense.
What I am saying, and forgive me for not elaborating into a full writeup everytime I make a blanket statement, (over time it gets a little monotonous and potentially sounds condescending to put a full on lesson and writeup everytime I say a blanket statement), but when both teams have marginal success running the ball, then you will see these teams air it out a ton. Obviously the clock runs after completions. This is the basics of football. But the clock stops after incompletions, and usually more yards and chewed up through the air, in addition to resulting in game changing plays such as sack/fumbles, INTs, etc which also heavily effect the scoreboard.
You also failed to read the entire sentence: "I could see this game turning into an under fest if one of these teams could run the ball, grind out some clock and play a little D, that is an overs worst nightmare".
"AND PLAY A LITTLE D" was a big part to that equation.
I really dont want to get into a full totals discussion right now, but my blanket statement was overanalyzed and I wanted to say my piece in defense of it.
GL whatever you chose.