Looking at tonight's game you have a team in C Michigan that played to an offense that produced 25.8ppg the first half of the season and 34.7ppg the second half, so they got progressively better as the season went on, the problem was their defense got progressively worse from 27.8ppg allowed 1st half, to 33.7ppg allowed 2nd half. Your looking at a team that was producing 14 more points in their games from mid-season on. FAU 19.3ppg in the first half of the season (better comp), to 35ppg 2nd half, vs competition more in tuned to what they will face here, while the defense allowed 30ppg. neither team showed the ability to stop a good offense, and when you get to the 30ppg range your a good offense, and when your allowing 30ppg your a bad defense. The question is then, what have these teams done to patch up the holes? What has their opponent gleaned from the film to exploit? What effect will the FAU suspensions have on the offense? This one opened at 63, but has been bet up heavily to 69 last check, could push 70 by kickoff. That means a full TD and conversion of value to an under player, or chewed up value to an over player. It changes the points scored per minute from 1.05 at 63 to 1.17 at 70. You have to then look at yards per play for each team, and extract it from the "like" defenses they played on their schedules, and equate it to points, and the points per minute needed to cover. Time of possession in those "like" games divided by the points scored, will give you the point per minute figure to use as a basis of value, and show you where the true value lies. I just gave you a formula to do your bidding the rest is up to you, but that is my first approach and if it shows value on either side, then you must calcualte intangibles, to get a feel for the true value. Good luck.
The facts are that most games go over simply because one team or both don't play good defense or there are an inordinate amount of turnovers or special teams plays. The facts about this game is you have two conferences that by nature score and give up a lot of points during the season, and especially in bowls. Last year the 3 teams from the MAC gave up 51, 52 and 63 points in their bowls. This conference has been down by their standards for the last couple of years. And it has been because of their lack of defense. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a semi-crippled FAU team put up 35 or more on CM tonight. The question is how many CM will score.
This is very similar to a major part of my capping.Like teams ,like defenses, yardage , but not as important as points.(yardage)Also layoff plays into it,coaches, there are a million factors that can be capped. Sometimes, when you think about it, we are betting on 18-22 year olds who are closer to teenagers than adults.That we need to know if they got drunk and laid in the last couple days, it is unreal!! There are no sure things!!!! Good luck to you, sir. Thanks again for all input.We are here to provide positive influence to each other and I appreciate your input! ATLSLIM
i feel like its a little bit of both
it opened at 62 and had a quick jump (my guess is sharps hit it fast) ...... since then the public has driven it even higher.
im not playing the total but would take the under 71 small
GL ATL ..... I'll be rooting for a 7-0 Florida Atlantic win
it opened at 62 and had a quick jump (my guess is sharps hit it fast) ...... since then the public has driven it even higher.
im not playing the total but would take the under 71 small
GL ATL ..... I'll be rooting for a 7-0 Florida Atlantic win
gl Slim on ur play tonite
but the way this line is moving you must wonder IF vegas needed over action they would have left it near 67-68. maybe even 69. i have to say this game will go over. its already moved almost 10 points already and yes you have a ton of value on ur Under play and i do wish you luck as I am not a big fan of totals-too many things can happen gl
Toby
but the way this line is moving you must wonder IF vegas needed over action they would have left it near 67-68. maybe even 69. i have to say this game will go over. its already moved almost 10 points already and yes you have a ton of value on ur Under play and i do wish you luck as I am not a big fan of totals-too many things can happen gl
Toby
