Articles That I feel can help you In all Sports

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DIRECT FROM NEVADA

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS HATE THE BRACKET BUSTERS!
Which means YOU should love them!
I can tell you firsthand that most Nevada oddsmakers hate the Bracket Buster games that are scheduled every year at this time. They're all for something that increases traffic into their stores. But, the public tends to avoid these games like the plague (except for maybe a few TV games). Most or all of the action comes from the sharps...and that's what sportsbooks want to avoid!
Oddsmakers will beat the public like a drum. Oddsmakers have less success against the sharps. Bracket Buster weekend is like a dream come true for the sharps, and a horrible nightmare for oddsmakers.
Consider:

• A few dozen teams that oddsmakers typically pay the LEAST attention to are set to play each other in odd circumstances. The guys behind the line have very firm grasps of what's going on in the Big East, the Big Ten, the ACC right now. They know exactly what the line should be in any conference game. They wouldn't be thrown for a loop if the 4th place team in the Big Ten had a "made for TV" matchup against the 7th place team in the ACC. They'd trust their number.

But, the 5th place team in the MAC against the 9th place team in the Colonial? Something like that? It's far from a blind guess...but it's more of a guess than a true read on the teams. Multiply that by a few dozen...and a headache becomes a migraine.

• There's not much of a betting track record with these lesser known teams, so oddsmakers can't fall back on that for guidance. Maybe sharps have shown some tendencies with some of the hotter names like Old Dominion or Utah State. Siena is playing Butler on Saturday...oddsmakers can reflect back to past NCAA Tournament betting action with those teams. For the most part, Bracket Buster teams are avoided by sharps during the regular season too! Oddsmakers lack confidence in their own number, and they just don't have a read on what the sharp preferences are likely to be.
• What's home court advantage going to be worth? Oddsmakers generally use about 4 points for home court...less in some places, maybe a shade more in others. What about these games though? Some visitors are on very long road trips to hard-to-get-to cities. Others are making very short hops. Some home courts will be packed (particularly those in the TV games because these schools don't get much ESPN coverage). Others will be virtually empty. You know, sharps will jump in whenever they see a line is off by just a point or two. Home court by itself will have variations more than that this weekend.
• Who wants to send a message, and who wants to get the game over with? Many blowouts through Bracket Buster weekend revolve around those two themes. Some squads are letting the NCAA Selection Committee know they mean business. Others have no shot in the world at a postseason, and are just going through the motions. Oddsmakers are at their best when intensity is equal, and they can rate the games based on talent. In many Bracket Busters, intensity is a mismatch.
• Which teams play the best defense? Many of the schools involved come from conferences where defense just isn't played much. That's why they get squashed when they play somebody from one of the power conferences. They're too soft inside. Well, not everybody in the Bracket Busters is soft inside! I've found great success over the years taking strong defensive teams, particularly at underdog prices. They'll keep a game close on the road. They'll keep disinterested visitors from scoring much at all if they get to play a home game. I'm serious...if you as a typical Vegas oddsmaker who plays the best defense in the Colonial Conference or the MAC, you'll mostly draw blank stares. Those guys know how to do power ratings, but they don't consider matchup strengths and weaknesses as much as they should.

Conveniently, the issues I've just outlined for you are a virtual checklist for what YOU should be doing when trying to pick Bracket Buster games this weekend. To beat the Nevada lines, you have to attack the soft spots. THESE are the soft spots!
As you look over the card, try to answer these questions:

• Who's been playing the best ball lately of the Bracket Buster teams? Oddsmakers just haven't been following recent results as closely as they need to. You need to know current form.
• Who's been playing the worst ball lately of the Bracket Buster teams? Same theme, coming from the other direction. Oddsmakers are going to be wrong about somebody! Some of the mistakes will involve teams who are playing worse than they realized.
• Who's likely to have a big home court advantage? If you follow basketball closely, you can make some very reasonable guesses in this regard. Try to find time to study home/road victory margins for all the teams involved. You'll want to take the home blowout teams...and go against the poor travelers in the games with medium or large home favorites. At the tighter spreads, you'll probably see some weak home teams who will find a way to lose outright in crunch time. Personally, I've had some very good success taking dogs in games where I don't think there will be any home court advantage at all.
• Who's on the bubble in the Big Dance, or who might have to sweat an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tournament? These teams are going to show up! Check out ESPN's website to see where everyone stands in the big picture. I can assure the kids themselves are paying very close attention to this. They all dream of playing in the Big Dance. They know a critical game when it's on the schedule.
• Who plays defense?! Do some research and figure out which squads are most likely to disrupt their opponents...and which are more likely to stand idly by watching a layup drill. A little bit of knowledge can go a long way.

I'd also suggest you monitor early betting action very closely. Sharps will be poised to attack the opening numbers. The public won't be much involved at all. They may play the TV games before tipoff. Any early move will be a sharp move...which means you should respect it. I know many "investment" minded sports bettors who don't handicap the games at all. They just monitor those early line movements, then try to get down at stale lines at other sportsbooks. Bracket Buster weekend is an ideal time for that approach. There's no public money messing up your reads on what the sharps are doing. It's easy to know what the sharps are thinking once they start betting!

 

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from my friends at Docsports

Betting Against 'Squares' A Great Handicapping Strategy
by Richard Anthony - 2/22/2010

Many Web sites will tell you what the general consensus is betting. I'm a big believer of going against the public, often referred to as 'squares' in this industry, whenever possible. You are not going to win all the time, but in the long run you will win. Sometimes gambling can be easy: find the team the public is loading up on and simply bet the other team. If I had to guess I would say more than 90 percent of gamblers do not come out on top in the long run. The best sport to do this with is baseball; in order to win in baseball you cannot bet the Yankees every game and expect to end up on top. The underdog is normally the smart wager. [SIZE=+1]
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Baseball is not the only sport this strategy works with, and a perfect example of this was this past Friday night when the powerhouse San Antonio Spurs traveled to play the lowly Philadelphia 76ers. The line had the Spurs favored by only 3.5 and more than 80 percent of the public was on the Spurs. The game was close until the Sixers pulled away in the fourth quarter.
Everyone can say they study the games, they do the math, they know the sport and they handicap, but in reality the individuals with most of the knowledge are the oddsmakers. That is their job and they make profits every season. In theory their goal is to get 50 percent of the action on each side of the game and to profit off the juice, but that is a pipe dream. The bookies have a vested interest in almost every game every night and they need the public to get slammed in order to ensure a healthy profit.
One thing to look for is when 90 percent of the general public is on team A, yet the line hasn’t moved. Well, the bookies obviously know something or else the sharp money came in and equaled out the action on Team B. We would not recommend blindly betting on Team B, but situations like these definitely warrant a second look.
The public is out there betting on top teams like the Cavs and the Lakers every night, and who should beat who based on the last 10 meetings and these are horrible strategies. You can bet against the Cavs and Lakers and get undervalued teams and oddsmakers often shade the line since they anticipate the lion’s share of action on the favorite. However, this can be a slippery slope since top teams are top teams for a reason and they can beat their opponent on any given night so be sure to pick your spots.
Also watch the line movements. The general public will usually see an ‘over/under’ move from 132 to 128 and bet the ‘over’ because they feel they are getting it at a discount when, in reality, they should be looking at the ‘under’ because that is where all the 'smart' money is going. This back in the day was called a 'wise guy' bet.
Another reason the general public is normally on the losing end of the wager is that they are constantly betting favorites. Bettors usually bet the favorites early in the week and this causes the line to rise, but sharp underdog bettors normally wait until the last minute and get a good line. The public will also bet 'sucker lines' that lure the public into betting them. When its seems to good to be true, it probably is.

People who handicap NBA games will watch for teams playing on consecutive nights or teams that have played a large number of games in one week. The public figures their tired and worn down, which they probably are. What the public doesn't realize is that Las Vegas knows the same thing and will adjust the spread accordingly. The public also swears they can find a weak lines. Oddsmakers will make a bad line here and there but you have a better shot at hitting the lottery then finding a bad or weak line unless you have been betting sports for years and know what to look for. Yet another problem with public betting is that the public looks at all those crummy trends. For example the Chicago Bulls are 27-5-1 against the spread in their last 33 games following an ATS win, after Derrick Rose goes on a date in Chicago to the same restaurant. Who Cares?! This meaning nothing! Sharp bettors can differentiate the trends that matter from the ones that are just clutter.
Good handicappers are very hard to find and gambling is very difficult. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it and the bookies would be out of business. Therefore, just because the public studies the games doesn't make them educated. An astute handicapper does have to have a pretty good knowledge of sports but I have developed a simple strategy,
1. Find out what everyone likes
2. Bet against that particular game
3. Don't even watch the game (avoid stress)
4. Collect from the bookie when the weeks over

 

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Nick: Offshores Getting Crushed On Totals


Submitted by nick on Sun, 2010-03-07 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NICK SAYS OFFSHORES GETTING CRUSHED ON TOTALS
If you've been paying close attention to college basketball totals in the mid major tournaments, you know exactly what I'm talking about!
We saw this time and time again on the first day of tournament action a couple of days ago.
*The opener would go up offshore in the range of 136-140 or so...
*Sharps would POUND the Under so hard the total would come down to around 130 by tipoff (moves of 6-8 points were common).
*The game would be played, and the final score would end up in the mid 120's or lower. Sometimes WAY lower.
The opening lines were off by a mile, and even the newer 'widely available' lines after initial sharp betting were still way too high. It was amazing how this happened seemingly game after game. Sure, there were a few games that made it Over. On the whole, sharps made a killing.
Day two of the tourneys on Saturday saw oddsmakers do a better job with openers. They dropped down about 5-7 points from where they would have been normally, and sharp Under action only brought the lines down 2-3 points more. It amazed many that sharps kept betting the Unders even after the adjustment. These guys believe in their numbers. They'll take as many free points as they can get. Every point is worth something when you're betting volume.
Was it this bad for oddsmakers and sportsbooks in Nevada? No. A lot of books focus on the major conferences, and provide limited access to the mid major tournaments. If they offer them, they do so at lower limits. If they offer totals, they let the dust settle offshore before posting their numbers. Sharps in town did make money betting Unders...but that was happening at lower limits, and at better lines. Sportsbooks played defense as best they could.
Still, the value was there for smart bettors even with the safeguards put in place by the very conservative Nevada books.
What happened?
Apparently oddsmakers forgot that scoring goes down in neutral site tournament games!
Among the reasons:
*Players aren't used to the backdrops at neutral sites. It's tougher to make your shots in a weird place.
*Starting times can be weird, particularly for weekday tipoffs. College players just aren't used to Thursday or Friday afternoon starts. And, sometimes the nightcap starts much later at night than they're used to.
*Many of these arenas are mostly empty in early round games. Crowds get bigger when the top teams are playing each other in the semifinals and finals. A first round game between #6 and #11? That weird shooting backdrop is going to include a lot of empty seats! And, the lack of energy in the crowd feeds down to the players.
*Coaches try to enforce a slower style in playoff-type games. Every possession matters. Over 40 minutes, there are often fewer possessions in tournament games than in regular season games...especially of you're talking about teams who don't run much to begin with.
*Teams really pick up the pace defensively because the game is so important. The season ends if you lose today! At least that's true for most of the teams in the mid major tournaments. Squads who barely guarded anyone all year are suddenly focusing on getting stops. That reduces scoring too.
Yes, this stuff is true EVERY YEAR, so you think the offshore places would have adjusted properly. They didn't on the first day, but did get closer to matching the market and reality after that.
What's the lesson for you? Well, first of all, you have to kind of turn the usual rules of thumb on their head. Normally, the public moves the line...and the public bets favorites and Overs. In lower profile events, it's only sharps moving the line. So, if you want an Under, BET IT EARLY! Do you want Under 138? Under 137? Or Under 132? If you wait, you're stuck with that much lower number.
On the other hand, if you like the Over...wait a bit and see if the market gives you a better number. Very few of these totals are going up (which, right there tells you that you have to be careful with Overs in tournaments). If you do get a grading, the longer you wait, the better off you're probably going to be.

 

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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=432 bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>New NFL Overtime Rules and Betting Effect
by Pat Spence - 3/8/2010

In 1974 the NFL adopted sudden death overtime for regular season games, allowing for ties if neither team scored in the 15 minute extra period. Playoff games have always been sudden death. Now, after ironman Brett Farve’s Minnesota Vikings didn’t get the ball and a chance to win or tie in the 31-28 NFC Championship loss to eventual Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, the NFL Competition Committee is considering a rule change, but only for the Playoffs.
Under the current rules, the first team to score wins. These are the proposed rule changes: 1. If the first team with the ball scores a TD they win and the game is over. 2. If the first team with the ball scores a FG, then the other team gets the ball with an opportunity to tie or win. 3. If both teams make a FG the next team to score wins.

This new concept will be discussed with teams and players at league meetings March 21-24 in Orlando. If it comes to a vote a minimum of two thirds of the teams would need to agree to the changes for new rules to be adopted. There will be no change for the regular season as the NFL is notoriously slow in making wholesale changes, but in the playoffs it could have an effect on the lines and totals.
Betting lines on what normally might be very close games with a higher likelihood of overtime could have higher lines. What would usually be a very tight spread could move higher as the winner in overtime is more likely to score a touchdown and win by six points as opposed to the current OT situation where almost all overtime games are won by only three points, keeping the score closer. Oddsmakers will have a new wrinkle in their systems for the playoffs to account for this change.
Totals for close and high-scoring games such as the NFC Championship Game will likely also inch higher as an overtime game will increase the final score from three to nine points more than the current ‘normal’ three-point margin of victory. If the first team scores a touchdown the total would be three points more than the usual field goal line. If the first team with the ball only scores a field goal the other team can add three more points to tie or six more to win, and if they tie another three to six points will be added. No doubt Los Vegas will build this into their total formulas and totals for the upcoming playoff s will be higher.
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ODDSMAKERS/SPORTSBOOKS BRACING
FOR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BEDLAM
Even though public action is down a bit from past seasons, I can assure you that it's going to be a MADHOUSE in Las Vegas and Reno this week as the conference tournaments get started.
For my money, this is the single best week of college basketball there is. Sure, the NCAA Tournament brings in more people, and gets everyone involved in those office pools. Conference tournament week lasts longer than that first big weekend of the Dance though (with the busy days starting Tuesday rather than Thursday), and features a lot more games. The first two days of the Big Dance next week will feature 32 games overall. This Thursday alone has 41 games from conference tourneys!
I'm a huge college basketball fan. Personally, this is my favorite week. There's wall-to-wall basketball, and every game means something. The winners keep playing. Many of the losers see their seasons come to an end. Some teams will be playing their way in, or playing their way out of the NCAA tournament.
As an oddsmaker and Sportsbook Director, this week offers some unique challenges. The general public becomes much more involved than they had been. During the regular season, squares focus on TV games, and are more of a factor on weekends than on weekdays. From the oddsmaking perspective, most of college basketball is a battle against the sharps. THIS WEEK, with so many people travelling to Nevada so they can bet basketball around the clock, oddsmakers have to adjust lines for public action. That can be a delicate dance...playing defense against square money on favorites, knowing that sharps (professional wagerers) are waiting in the wings to attack any numbers that move too much.
As a handicapper, I know I have to really stay on top with what's happening in all the conferences. Players get hurt. Players run out of gas because they give everything one day and have nothing left the next. Young teams who gelled late in the year continue to improve. Struggling teams who can't stand each other get even worse under the spotlight (you saw that with Illinois this past Sunday in their regular season finale against Wisconsin). I'm not the type to move my Power Ratings dramatically this late in the season. I know, though, that I can't just keep them frozen in place either.
As a big bettor, I'm looking for the best spots to attack the market. Sometimes the squares move a line too far. Sometimes the sharps fall in love with a team that really doesn't deserve it. I follow this sport closer than most of the sharps I know. I'm not afraid to go against them if they're barking up the wrong tree.

 

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Nick: Squares Making Same Mistakes


Submitted by nick on Sat, 2010-03-13 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SQUARES BACK IN ACTION, MAKING THE SAME MISTAKES!
I lot of squares (the Vegas term for the public bettors) have been out of action since the Super Bowl ended. Part of that is because of the down economy. Part is that some people only want to bet the big events. MARCH MADNESS is a big event, so people start coming out of the woodwork for the major conference tournaments you've been watching on TV this week.
They're back, and they're making the same mistakes as always!
You'd think the time off would have helped them develop a better strategy than one that always loses. Nope. Here are just a few of the mistakes I've seen squares make this week:
*They think the best seeds or the bye teams are invincible. The Big East tournament was just carnage for these guys because they bet Syracuse over Georgetown, Villanova over Marquette, Pittsburgh over Notre Dame, and West Virginia over Cincinnati. That's 0-4 against the spread in the biggest TV event!
Even worse, I heard some guys whining about losing the favorites on the moneyline. Some squares talk themselves into the "well, they might not cover, but there's no way they'll LOSE this game" line of thinking. They lay exorbitant prices figuring the "better" team will find a way to win late even if they don't win a blowout. Great, if the game turns into a coin flip, you're laying -300 or -400 hoping heads comes up! The favorites went 1-3 straight up in those games I just listed.
*They double up to catch up if they lose in early action. Squares figure they can't possibly keep losing. They're just too smart for that! Sorry, Vegas is built as much on the weaknesses of human nature as it is on having the odds in its favor. If you don't know what you're doing, doubling the size of your bet isn't very smart!
From the sportsbook's perspective, one of the perks of offering second half lines is that it gives losing gamblers a chance to "chase" if they're team falls behind. "Well, they played a bad first half, but there's no way they'll play two bad halves in a row," they say to themselves (or out loud for that matter!). You can tell from the final scores all over the board how that worked out for everyone.
*They play WAY too much action. Whenever somebody takes a break from gambling, they get so excited when they're back in the game that they go overboard. Poker players see too many flops at the Hold-em tables. Blackjack players go for 2-3 hours instead of stopping after one (millions of annual tourists can tell you about that one). Sports bettors play games all over the board instead of the handful where they might actually have a feel.
Put those three together, and you have a sense of what sportsbooks looked like in Las Vegas and Reno once the conference tournaments got started this week. People who hadn't been in action for a long time bet way over their heads in terms of the number of games and bet size...bet on too many favorites...then chased many of those teams after bad first halves...then chased after their losses in the late games...which usually cost them even more money.
A disaster for squares! Sportsbooks were happy to see this after handing away so much money to sharps on totals in the weeks leading up to the postseason.

 

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Nick: What Sharps Think about Day Two


Submitted by nick on Fri, 2010-03-19 01:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT
DAY TWO IN THE BIG DANCE
As promised, I'm back to talk about what sharps (professional wagerers) in Las Vegas are thinking about Day Two of the NCAA tournament. The frantic nature of the markets in round two won't allow for a report on sharp action on the fly during the weekend. I will be back Sunday morning for some thoughts on how the tournament has played out for sharps up to that point.
Next week, I'll definitely have a 'what the sharps are thinking' report for the full Sweet 16 round. That's scheduled to run Thursday morning, the first day of the Sweet 16.
Speaking of 16...we have 16 games to discuss. Let's get to it!
BUFFALO
MORGAN STATE VS. WEST VIRGINIA: Sharps hit West Virginia early, impressed by their run through the Big East last week. Sharps layed 16.5 and 17 points with the Mountaineers. I'm now seeing numbers as high as 18 as additional action (mix of sharp and public) continued to come in on the #2 seed. Morgan State is seen as more of a 16 seed than a 15 seed according to the people I've been talking to.
MISSOURI VS. CLEMSON: Clemson's been getting respect, as an offshore opener of pick-em is now up to -1.5 most everywhere. Though the Big 12 did impress people this year. Missouri was out of that loop. They lost in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, and didn't fare well in two TV games with Kansas. Sharps saw an edge with Clemson at pick-em. But, the line did stop at -1.5, so it's not a huge play for the Wise Guys.
FLORIDA STATE VS. GONZAGA: Florida State opened at pick-em offshore, and is now -1.5 everywhere I look (as of press time, you may see a different number as you read this). Same story here, with another ACC team inspiring early support from sharps, but not passionate support. I know several guys who have been burned in past years with Gonzaga. They'll take a wait-and-see approach this year.
VERMONT VS. SYRACUSE: This one was kind of interesting. There was early support for Syracuse, as an opener of 18 moved up to 19. But, now we've seen the line fall all the way to -17 for the favorite. I attribute that to pessimism about the injury to a key contributor. First reports said he'd be available (which may have been Syracuse lobbying the selection committee not to reduce their seeding!). That's changed, and the line has come down.
JACKSONVILLE
CORNELL VS. TEMPLE: Cornell was a team sharps were looking to take. Oddsmakers knew this, and posted a relatively short opener of -4.5 offshore. Early action brought it down to -4, which is where it's sitting now. I've heard a lot of whining this year, and really the past 2-3 years from dog players who got spoiled in the old days. They used to get something like 8-10 points with a decent dog that the public wasn't paying attention to. That value is gone.
WOFFORD VS. WISCONSIN: A mixed bag here, with the line hopping around the 10 spot. I'm currently seeing Wisconsin -10.5. This is one of those games where some sharps have Wisconsin as a darkhorse to go deep in the brackets, while others think Wofford is pretty good for a 13th seed. Not a sharp consensus in this game.
ARKANSAS PINE BLUFF VS. DUKE: Not much action here. Sharps know Duke has been a money-burner in recent tournaments. But, they are capable of beating up on a bad team. I know guys who are looking to go against Duke in the next round, and pretty much any round after that if the Blue Devils keep winning. I think there are some guys waiting here to see if the public comes in on Duke. That used to be automatic...squares would lay any number with the top seeds. The down economy has kept the square influence from impacting the lines much so far.
LOUISVILLE VS. CALIFORNIA: I've seen both teams favored this week. Currently California is at -1. There's split emotions here...with a lot of anti-Pac 10 money coming in on Louisville, but some 'the Big East is overrated' money coming in on California. It's funny, there are some games where sharps disagree about who to take. This is one where they're disagreeing about who to bet against! Not a consensus here.
MILWAUKEE
MINNESOTA VS. XAVIER: A lot of games near pick-em on the Friday card...and, the fact that those games aren't moving much tells you there's a lack of sharp consensus. I've seen both teams favored by a point this week, with Xavier currently the favorite. Sharps always get the best number though...with everyone sitting at +1 with their preferred dog. Sportsbooks won't have to sweat a middle because there can't be a tie. If any of these games land exactly on one though, sportsbooks will take a hit because few will lose on that game.
OAKLAND VS. PITTSBURGH: Some interest in Oakland here, as an opener of +11 is now down to either +10 or +10.5 depending on where you shop. IUPUI had a nice result in the NIT the other night, and they're from Oakland's conference. That might weigh on the mind of sharps.
GEORGIA TECH VS. OKLAHOMA STATE: Another game near pick-em all week. Good luck trying to win one of those million dollar prizes picking the brackets. So many coin flips this year! Oklahoma State got the nod from those who did bet the game, moving the line to -1 from pick-em.
CAL SANTA BARBARA VS. OHIO STATE: The line here has settled at -17.5 for Ohio State. That's where it opened. Early money on the dog moved it down temporarily, but support for the Buckeyes brought the number right back up. I wish I could be telling you about aggressive sharp plays on this day. It's just not happening through these first three sections. There's debate about the coin tosses. And, what's also in play here, is the fact that sharps are hoping to get better lines with their underdogs thanks to game day square action from the public. No reason to jump on a dog early if there's a chance you'll get a better line later. We talked about that a lot during football season. In a sense, the lack of sharp action for Friday tells you these guys are leaning to the dogs...and are hoping for better numbers. If they liked favorites they would have jumped in quickly to beat the public.
SPOKANE
SIENA VS. PURDUE: Sharps have been going against Purdue since the Robbie Hummel injury. They certainly planned on doing that here. Oddsmakers tried to play defense with a low opener (just like in Cornell/Temple). Purdue started out offshore at -5, but has dropped to -4 now. Sharps just have to accept that the big value is gone on the relative no-name teams. You've got to take what you can get and live with it.
UTAH STATE VS. TEXAS A&M: I've seen respect for both sides here. Another game featuring a dangerous dog, but a favorite with the talent to go deep if they can dodge bullets. Early Utah State money brought a line of +3 down to +2.5 for awhile...but Aggie money took it back up to three. I think you'd see a lot of sharp activity if the public moved the line up to +4 before tipoff.
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. MICHIGAN STATE: Not much interest here. There was a little of flurry of activity for awhile with the dog, but the line got bet right back up again. I can tell you most sharps figured there was no way in the world New Mexico State was going to be in the Dance. They don't want to take any guesses on a pretender.
HOUSTON VS. MARYLAND: Maybe we saved the best for last. This is really the only game that's shown a clean preference. Maryland opened at -8 offshore...moved to -9...and still got enough money to move to -9.5. Houston money might start coming in at +10. For now, sharps like The Terps...particularly those who got in at -8. Remember, sharps act QUICKLY if they like a favorite to beat the public.

 

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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING
ABOUT TUESDAY'S NIT SEMIFINALS
As promised, I'm back to talk about what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about Tuesday Night's Final Four games in the NIT.
DAYTON VS. MISSISSIPPI: Sharps made an early move toward Dayton here, impressed with the team's one-sided victory at Illinois in the last round. Ole Miss opened as a 2-point favorite. I've seen pick-em or Dayton +1 since then. Remember, the public doesn't bet many openers in college hoops...and they don't bet the NIT until game day if they bet it at all. So, that early move was definitely based on sharp action.
The total opened at 143, and fell down to 142. That may be a computer move based on full season data. These teams have been playing higher scoring games lately, so a move Under would be against recent form. Some sharps like playing Unders in 'big' games because things can slow down in a tight second half. That's been fairly rewarding of late.
Clearly early sharp action on Dayton and the Under against the openers.
NORTH CAROLINA VS. RHODE ISLAND: This game opened pick-em, with early money making Rhode Island a one-point favorite. I was a bit surprised that money came in early. You have to figure the public is going to bet better known North Carolina. If you like Rhode Island you might as well wait to see if you can get some points. I think some sharps were concerned other sharps were going to get too aggressive with the Rams. Carolina still isn't a team that's trusted by sharps after their poor play most of this season. And, the A10 seems to be getting some respect off that great game by Xavier the other night. Note that money hit both A10 teams in the NIT semifinals.
The total jumped from 147 to 149.5, which is a big move obviously. Rhode Island played to 151 in their win at Virginia Tech, and 168 in their victory over Nevada in the prior round. North Carolina landed on 150 and 152 in their first two NIT games, but slowed way down in their road victory at UAB in the quarterfinals. You can see the thinking for that move based on the style these teams play, and their form so far in the tournament.
Can we expect any surprises on game day?
I've said in the past that sharps often wait until late to act when they like the underdog. These games are so close to pick-em...in a relatively non-marquee event in the public's eyes...that there's not as much of a sense of urgency about that. Sharps wanted Dayton and got their two points from the opener. I do think there's a set of sharps waiting to take Rhode Island on hopes that the public is going to move the line between now and tip off.

 

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Nick: Sharps Up and Down in the NBA


Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-04-08 01:00
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SHARPS MOVING LINES, BUT NOT
ALWAYS FINDING SUCCESS IN NBA
You may have noticed some big NBA line moves recently. That's largely the result of sharp action starting to focus more on pro basketball since college basketball has ended. For awhile the big moves were doing well. That's not true on an every day basis though. Sharps have taken some hits this week when some teams zigged when sharps thought they were going to zag.
Here's what I've noticed sharps have been focusing on in recent days:
*Sharps like to go against teams playing badly, hitting the opening line so they can set up position for a middle. They're not coming over the top on the dog though at the higher line. We see that a lot in football. In football, teams are usually trying every week! In the NBA, you get questionable late season efforts from the non-playoff teams, and even some playoff bound teams who are taking a night off to pace themselves.
This is a powerful strategy because you can either win something with the favorite, or maybe hit a middle if the underdog does show up and play.
Imagine a decent team (even a non-playoff team like Indiana who's still getting some results vs. weak opposition) opens at -8 over a non-playoff opponent. Sharps will hit the favorite for something like 3 units at -8. The line will probably move off that action, and any action from others doing the same thing. Let's say it goes to -10. Sharps buy back for two units on the dog at +10.
If the bad team no-shows, sharps win their unit (actually 0.8 units).
If the bad team no-shows, but the bench makes some shots in garbage time, there's a chance to hit the 5-unit middle at 9, or a 'side' of the 8 and 10 spots (you win two units on the dog if the favorite wins by eight, three units on the favorite if the favorite wins by 10).
If the bad team shows up and tries, you can still have a shot at the magic numbers if they fade in the closing minutes.
If the bad team plays great and covers, you lose 1.3 units.
The favorites are winning more than half of these...and you'll see some middles hit over the long haul. It's a smart strategy. It's one of the few times you'll see sharps playing (and liking!) favorites in any sport.
*Sharps are doing the same thing with totals plays...mostly Overs bets on the teams who aren't playing defense. I know a lot of you don't pay much attention to the NBA until playoff time. If you HAD been paying attention, you would have seen some HIGH totals that are way above what they were earlier this season.
Oddsmakers are aware that scoring is up with some of these teams, and are posting high openers. Sharps don't think they're high enough, and are doing the same positioning where they bet Over at the opener, then buy back after the move to set up a middle.
Maybe I need to emphasize again that one of the biggest differences between sharps and squares is that sharps know how to position their bets for maximum effect. Squares will risk one unit (plus juice) to win one unit, often at an unfavorable line. Sharps will use that same risk to give them a shot at 5 units. Whenever you hear a square complaining about a half point or one point loss ATS, a sharp probably hit a middle. Let THAT sink in for awhile!
*Sharps have been very quick to pick up on slumping teams. I think oddsmakers trust their power ratings a bit too much late in an NBA season. They think full season sample size will protect them. Slumping teams obviously aren't playing to their power ratings.
*Sharps are the masters of betting injury news. They assume a settled line reflects something close to fair value...and that any injury news must be bet because it wasn't factored into the settled line. Most starting players have a value greater than zero. Their absence represents a bettable edge.
As you handicap these final days of the season, you should think seriously about modeling your efforts after these. We're seeing volatile line movements, which means early bettors will have a shot at middles. Lineup scratches because of injury or fatigue are common late in the season. There are a lot of slumping teams you can think about going against. IT'S A PLAYER'S MARKET!

 

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Nick: Injuries Loom over NBA Playoffs


Submitted by nick on Fri, 2010-04-16 01:00
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SHARPS ANXIOUS TO ATTACK FIRST ROUND LINES
I had planned to devote today's web article to look at early line movements in the series prices for the opening round of NBA Playoff action. Unfortunately, the fact that injuries were looming large over many matchups prevented a full analysis before deadline. I have been discussing the postseason with many sharps I respect. I'll instead devote today to some general sharp guidelines for each series.
First, let's review where the injuries are:
UTAH AT DENVER: Carlos Boozer injured his rib cage late in the regular season. His status is uncertain for the series. He's arguably the most important player on the Jazz in terms of their playoff hopes.
PORTLAND AT PHOENIX: Brandon Roy of Portland has a torn meniscus in his knee. His status is uncertain for the series. Obviously he's a key player!
CHICAGO AT CLEVELAND: Joakim Noah has returned to the lineup for the Bulls. But, plantar fasciitis is one of those ailments that can cause game day scratches at the drop of a hat. Sportsbooks would prefer to have absolute certainty regarding his ability to contribute because he has such a singular impact on Chicago's performances.
Before outlining series strategies, let me go over some sharp "basics:"

• Sharps prefer dogs to favorites, figuring most playoff games are going to be so evenly matched that any points offer value over the long haul.
• Sharps prefer to go against public teams figuring they're getting an extra point or two whenever a popular team is laying points in the postseason.
• Sharps prefer Unders to Overs, particularly later in a series when every possession takes on added importance.
• Sharps prefer taking teams who just lost to taking teams who just won. You'll see lines adjust a point or two (or more) from one game to the next because of this historical betting tendency from sharps. Sportsbooks try to defend themselves as best as possible. Many sharps believe the lines STILL haven't adjusted enough to reflect the true earning potential of the bounce back spots.

Those are big picture themes to keep in mind over the next several weeks. Quick notes on the series that start Saturday and Sunday...
SATURDAY:
CHICAGO AT CLEVELAND: Sharps don't like laying points with heavy favorites. They'll be looking for value prices with the Bulls (who took a first round series the full seven games last year). If Noah is able to play near full speed, the Bulls may be a BIG play for sharps in a couple of spots.
MILWAUKEE AT ATLANTA: Sharps will wait and see what happens as the Bucks try to play "playoff style" basketball without their big man. This is still a team that will give you effort, with a head coach in Scott Skiles who may have a trick or two up his sleeve. A "wait and see" series for sharps.
MIAMI AT BOSTON: Sharps have been betting against Boston quite a bit in the second half of this season. I would expect that to continue in this series.
UTAH AT DENVER: It all depends on Boozer. Denver's slumped badly late in the season, and Utah would have presented a strong betting option for sharps if Boozer was at full strength. Another "wait and see" series depending on how hard Boozer can go.
SUNDAY
OKLAHOMA CITY AT LA LAKERS: Sharps like to go against heavy favorites, and they also like to go against the Lakers because the public bets Kobe. Remember that Las Vegas is almost like a suburb of Los Angeles in terms of money. A lot of Lakers fans bet the playoffs. Sharps look for ways to exploit that.
CHARLOTTE AT ORLANDO: Orlando made the championships last year, which means they'll probably get bet like they're a #1 seed even though they're a #2. Sharps will try to look for value underdog situations with the Bobcats.
SAN ANTONIO AT DALLAS: I know a lot of sharps were disappointed these two were going head to head. They were hoping to get either team in value situations vs. others. San Antonio is on a tear lately, and has a proven track record in the playoffs. Dallas improved their playoff hopes with a late season trade. Maybe sharps will channel their affection for these teams into Under bets. My early discussions suggest that the winner of this series will be a popular sharp betting choice in the second round...against the winner of the Phoenix/Portland series.
PORTLAND AT PHOENIX: Portland wasn't playing with a full roster even before the Brandon Roy injury. It's scary to think of how good this team could be if they could ever keep people healthy all year! Sharps will have to wait and see here as well. If Roy can go, this could be one of those series where sharps just bet the dog each time, or get the prior loser looking for a competitive matchup that goes deep.
That wraps up my look at this first weekend. I'll be back on Sunday with some more NBA notes once the injury situations have cleared up a bit...and once I've had a chance to monitor sharp action on the series prices.

 

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EARLY DOG SUCCESS SHOWS COMPETITIVE WILD WEST
After everyone had finished the first four games of their opening round series (with only Orlando sweeping as the #2 seed in the East), it was clear that we had a big difference in competitiveness between the East and the West.

• Favorites were getting the money in the East, even though many of the hosts were very expensive to take.
• Underdogs were getting the money in the West, even though many in the know had had already been expecting some very tight battles between top quality teams.

Here's a quick breakdown...
EASTERN SERIES FAVORITES:
3-1 in the Orlando/Charlotte series
3-1 in the Boston/Miami series
2-2 in the Cleveland/Chicago series
2-2 in the Milwaukee/Atlanta series
That's 10-6 ATS in the first 16 games for series favorites in the East.
WESTERN SERIES UNDERDOGS:
3-0-1 in the Oklahoma City/Lakers series
3-1 in the Utah/Denver series
2-1-1 in the San Antonio/Dallas series
2-2 in the Portland/Phoenix series
That's 10-4-2 ATS in the first 16 games for series favorites in the West. Note that Game One of the Oklahoma City/Lakers series landed on 8. If you were betting the dog, you had plenty of time to get the push there. Lakers backers won at the late line of -7.5. I'm looking at this from the dog perspective, so I'm going to call that a push. Early bettors actually won that first game on Oklahoma City by the way.
Now, things can get interesting from Game Five on in a way that distorts the competitiveness of a series. If an underdog runs out of gas, they'll get blown out in their elimination game. If an underdog has a series lead, they may relax in one game so they can come back strong in another. It's possible for a "competitive" series to have blowouts in Games Five and Six before a tight Game Seven decides the winner.
I don't mean to suggest I'm taking series favorites in the East the rest of the way, and series dogs in the West. Just wanted to point out the differences in "competitiveness" to you that have been clear so far when measured against market prices.
I wouldn't be surprised to see those differences continue in the second round. The winners in the West are likely to be evenly matched, and more evenly matched than bettors currently realize. Cleveland and Orlando will be favorites in the second round in the East, and they have the horses to cover big prices when things are going well. Orlando has yet to put together four good quarters in a row, yet they're 3-1 ATS.
You often hear handicappers and pundits talk about their strategies for picking NBA playoff games. Be careful assuming one size fits all. In some years you're better served having different strategies for the West than you do for the East...just as you would having different strategies for series with fast paces rather than slow paces...or for series with great defenses rather than average defenses.
Handicapping is more complicated than you think...and more complicated than the markets give it credit for! That's why it's possible for sharps to win. If you do the work, you can beat the number. I know a lot of sharps who haven't been surprised at all by the underdog covers out West. They did the work going in. Those first four games actually contained few surprises in their eyes even though ESPN and TNT kept wondering what was happening to teams like the Lakers and the Nuggets.

 

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POINTS APLENTY SO FAR IN ROUND TWO OF THE NBA PLAYOFFS
This is not something you often see in the NBA Playoffs...high scoring games that keep flying Over the totals!
Through the first two games of Second Round action in all four series, we had:

• Boston/Cleveland: 1-1 on totals
• Atlanta/Orlando: 1-1 on totals
• Utah/LA Lakers: 2-0 to the Over
• San Antonio/Phoenix: 2-0 to the Over

That's 6-2 to the Over, 75% against the number.
Under players learned long ago that it's better to wait until later in an NBA playoff series to place their bets. You saw that in the First Round, where Games 5, 6, and 7 across the board went 3-10 to the Under. Defenses clamp down. Tempos slow down. Whistles go down the referees' throats because they usually get swallowed in important games. This is all very clear in the"big" games.
Things have really opened up in the early outings, though. I think there are a few reasons for this:

• All the remaining teams can make three-pointers. Those are easiest to make early in a series before nerves and pressure sets in.
• All the remaining teams have shooters who will attack the basket aggressively. There aren't any passive teams left who are hoping to win low scoring slugfests.
• The referees are calling fouls early on because they don't want to lose control of the series. It's not uncommon to see a team shoot 30 free throws in a playoff game right now. Only twice in 16 spots did somebody shoot less than 20.
• The best teams are now built to have a variety of scoring options, both inside and outside. That's tough to guard early in a series when the refs are calling fouls, and you're saving your most intense defensive efforts for the later games.

As a result:

• San Antonio at Phoenix saw the games land on 212 and 213 against totals around 205. Reality was a few buckets higher than the projection.
• Utah at Los Angeles saw the games landed on 203 and 214 against totals around 198. Same story here. Actually the"average" of the two was double digits higher than the projection.
• Atlanta/Orlando played to a 210 Thursday Night against a total of 189, going Over by 21 points.

Actually, I should just run the numbers from low to high. Do THESE look like playoff games to you?
185, 190, 194, 203, 210, 212, 213, 214
Nothing in the 170's (in the NBA playoffs!), only three games below 200, and half the games registering at 210 or higher.
I can tell you that oddsmakers are scratching their heads a bit trying to find the right totals to post. Sharps (professional wagerers) prefer Unders, so they're not betting heavily until things calm down a bit. Squares (the general public) prefer Overs, but they're not heavily involved with totals betting right now. They're most focused on their team side bets and rooting for their favorite players.
Smart players have been picking up some easy Over winners thus far. I think we'll see more sharp action come in after the weekend, pounding the Unders just like the latter stages in the first round. It will be interesting to see where the market settles once that starts. We have some aggressive offenses on the floor this year. Scoring may not drop off much now that the worst offenses have been eliminated from the brackets.
Sports betting is always evolving. That's why I never get bored as an oddsmaker, Sportsbook Director, handicapper, or big bettor. Every day is truly a new one, presenting challenges you haven't confronted before...or maybe that you haven't seen in many years (the NBA used to be high scoring all the time!). If you want to be a winner, you have to stay ahead of the curve. You have to see evolution as its happening. Sharps are the best at this. Squares don't believe anything ever changes.

 

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WHO'S AT FAULT WHEN MARKET MISSES RESULTS BY SO MUCH?
I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs.
I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah.
Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS!
Who's to blame?
Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court).
But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves.
Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places.
The market prices are a function of several factors:

• What oddsmakers think about the teams
• What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
• What sharps think about the teams
• What squares think about the teams
• How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
• How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting

All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.
Oddsmakers didn't realize Orlando was that much better than Atlanta. Sharps didn't either. Squares aren't betting much pro basketball relative to the past. Those who are have been more focused on the games involving Kobe and LeBron. It all added up to pointspreads that look pretty insane in retrospect.
Was there ever a point Monday Night where "Orlando -6" felt like the right line in that game? Orlando jumped way ahead early and coasted. Sure, Atlanta made a run or two. But, the game was a continuation of a dominant series.
How about Utah -3½ over the Lakers in the TV nightcap? The Lakers took control early, and a Utah cover never felt like it had a chance. It ended up being a line that was completely detached from the reality of the night.
San Antonio -4 back on Sunday? Steve Nash had his eye bashed shut, yet Phoenix still felt like the true favorite most of the evening.
Ultimately, I think that these were the key influences that kept the lines so far away from reality:

• Few could believe that Orlando was THAT much better than Atlanta. Nobody could believe their own eyes, so they went back to Power Ratings and statistics to assume a regression to the mean that was never going to happen.
• Few could believe that Phoenix was ready to step up and control San Antonio to the degree they did. Sure, the Suns can play well when they're hot. They're not known for consistency. People bet on inconsistency and it didn't happen.
• Many bettors (sharp and square) were anticipating "play for pride" efforts from Utah and San Antonio that just didn't happen. There was money being bet on San Antonio -4 and Utah -3½, as bad as those bets look now. How can you blame oddsmakers for their lines when there was support for the losing teams at those numbers? If there were oddsmakers who truly believed that Lakers -2 or Phoenix -1 made more sense, their employers would have been flooded with one-sided action.

The good news for YOU is that it's a player's market right now if you know how to evaluate NBA teams properly. This happens often in pro basketball for some reason. We saw it last year when Cleveland was a HUGE false favorite over Orlando in the Eastern finals. You may remember that the Lakers had big betting support in the finals two years ago when they lost to Boston. When market perceptions begin off track, there isn't time to get them on track.
How many games would it have taken for Phoenix to be -8 at home and -2 on the road? Or, Orlando -15 at home and -8 on the road? Or, any road team in a "clincher" game to be properly priced?
Get to work! The money is there to be won!

 

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from my friend Nick

Nick: What Sharps Think about NBA Finals


Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-06-03 01:00
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NEVADA SHARPS GENERALLY FAVOR LAKERS, TRYING TO FIND VALUE IN TOUGH MARKET
Sharps (professional bettors) are trying to come up with ways to find value betting the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Championship series that starts Thursday Night.

• They believe the Lakers are the better of the two teams.
• They believe home court advantage makes the Lakers an even stronger side in the series (remember, many sharps liked the Lakers two years ago when Boston had home floor).
• They believe the injury issues for Rajon Rondo will play a big role in this series, since Rondo was the key factor in getting Boston through the tough Eastern brackets.

The problem for sharps is that lines in Vegas and Reno are always stacked against the Lakers because there's so much local betting interest. Los Angeles is a virtual suburb of Las Vegas in betting terms. And, given how celebrities like to bet on big sports events, there's going to be A LOT of LA money coming into sportsbooks this week and next. Oddsmakers have to defend against that money by lifting the game lines and series prices. They charge a "tax" for the right to bet the Lakers, giving their employers the 11/10 edge on games plus a point or two that could certainly swing a game money-wise.
If you're a sharp, you don't want to pay a square tax!
You may think the Lakers are going to win the series. Do you want to lay -180 or higher for the privilege of betting them? A lot of guys laid the price two years ago and got spanked badly when it turned out the Lakers weren't ready for the more physical Celtics. This Lakers team is tougher, arguably MUCH tougher with the addition of Ron Artest. Still. Sharps are good about learning lessons. They'd prefer less expensive ways to back the Lakers.
What about laying 5½ points or so in Game One? The price on the Game One moneyline is -240. Neither one is a bargain from the Lakers perspective. That's getting close to where sharps switch over to Boston for value even if they like the Lakers to win the series. When game spreads get high, bets on Boston can still make money if the Celtics lose the series.
I honestly haven't seen a lot of sharp action this week in the baskets. Some guys took the plunge on the Lakers when it looked like Rondo would have trouble playing at 100%. Most are taking a wait and see attitude. The sharp money will come late. It might not come until Game Two Sunday. The guys who really like the Lakers are likely to step out when LA goes on the road. This is a team that plays well away from home, and the prices will be more affordable.
In short:

• The sharps who believe in the Lakers don't like the early prices.
• The sharps with an eye on Boston want to see Rondo's status.

I think it's going to play out this way. If Rondo is having trouble moving in the first game, and is clearly not going to be up to par this series...then we're going to see the lines adjust dramatically for the Lakers. Sharps will bet quick before the public drives the Lakers bandwagon even faster.
But, if Rondo is back to normal, then we'll probably have a "sharps vs. squares" battle where the sharps are betting Boston because of the "square tax" factored into the numbers...while the public is betting the Lakers because they don't care what the price is, they just want to root for Kobe Bryant.
It is possible for a series underdog to lose a series, but go 4-2 or even 5-2 against the spread if they're losing close games. There is a line in the sand where sharps who think the Lakers are the better of the two teams will still bet Boston for value. It wouldn't happen at +4, but it might at +6 or +7 in LA.

 

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from my friends at docsports



Bookmaker's Corner: NBA Finals Game 4 Odds and Props
by Richard Gardner, Bookmaker, Bodog Sportsbook - 6/10/2010

History shows that the NBA Finals are over – at least as far as the series result. Since the NBA switched to a 2-3-2 games format in the Finals in 1985, there have been 10 previous series that were 1-1 after the first two games as this year’s L.A. Lakers-Boston Celtics matchup was. The 10 teams that won Game 3 after that split won all 10 series. Of course the Lakers won Game 3 on Tuesday night 91-84. When you add that previous series stat to the fact that Phil Jackson-coached teams are 47-0 when winning Game 1 and things don’t look good for Boston.
However, those numbers have little bearing on our Game 4 odds at Bodog’s online sportsbook with the Celtics opening as 3.5-point favorites. That’s a point more than Boston was favored by in Game 3. Bodog bettors were backing the Celtics -2.5 for Tuesday’s game, so the Lakers’ winning was a good result for the book. L.A. has now won three straight in Boston (playoffs and regular season) after getting dominated in three games there in the 2008 Finals.

One concern for Boston has to be finding offense at home. The Celtics put up 106 points at TD Garden in Game 2 of the first-round series against Miami but haven’t hit triple digits in any other home playoff game. And the Lakers are money when holding teams to less than 100 points, improving to 8-0 with the Game 3 win. And yet everyone says Boston is the defensive team.
No one could expect Boston’s Ray Allen to match what he did in Game 2 when he hit a Finals record eight three-pointers and scored 32 points. He was historically bad in Game 3 by missing all 13 of his shots from the field. You can’t also expect him to do that again, so that should bode well for Boston on Thursday night.
And Paul Pierce is going to prove prophetic if he doesn’t snap out of his funk. Remember after the Game 2 win at Staples Center when he said the Celtics “ain’t coming back to L.A.”? The Lakers may end this in Boston if Pierce doesn’t start showing like he did in the ’08 Finals when he was MVP. He missed his first six shots and was 5-for-12 for 15 points in Game 3 and is just 13-for-36 from the field in the series. He won’t admit it, but Ron Artest gives him fits. Pierce opened as our third-favorite to win Finals MVP but that’s not happening now.
Our two major Game 3 player prop results at the book involved Kobe Bryant and Pierce. We listed Kobe at over/under 29.5 points and the players were hugely backing the over. That sure looked a big win for the bettors when Kobe had 25 points through three quarters. But he didn’t score for the first 10 minutes of the fourth and finished with 29 – a great result for the book. However, players got their win on Pierce, as heavy action came in on him under 20.5 points. That was our biggest prop loser of Game 3.
All of our team props favor a Lakers victory in six game. The Lakers winning 4-2 is the 7/4 favorite (five games is at 4/1) and under 6.5 games in the series is now the big -175 favorite. The series game spread of L.A. –1.5 is also the -120 favorite. Obviously many of these props will change drastically if the Lakers win Game 4 as most will then expect a sweep through Boston. But I don’t expect much movement if Boston wins Game 4 and assures a return to Staples Center – that venue is currently -200 to be where the series ends. Obviously that prop would be closed if Boston wins Thursday so jump on it now if you feel confident.

 

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/Celtics Similarities from 2008-10

Submitted by nick on Tue, 2010-06-15 01:00
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LAKERS FAITHFUL FEELING DÉJÀ VU AS CELTICS MOVE AHEAD IN SERIES
I mentioned the last time we were together that I was seeing a lot of worried faces on Lakers fans in sportsbooks here in town. That was BEFORE they lost Game Five!
I wouldn't say it's an all out panic. But, Lakers fans and bettors seem resigned to the fact that the team isn't as good as they thought they were, and that the absence of Andrew Bynum as an inside force in the series has put them behind the eight ball.
The last time these two teams met in the finals, the same kind of thing happened. The Lakers opened as a series favorite. Lakers bettors thought the price was too low because beating the Celtics would be easy. By the second week of the series, it was obvious that beating the Celtics wasn't going to be easy! It can be expensive to be a Lakers fan!
Nevada pointspreads tend to reflect public sentiment, though I have to admit that many oddsmakers thought the Lakers were going to dominate both series too. Here's what's happened against market prices in 2008 and 2010 thus far (note that the 2008 series started in Boston, with the 2010 series starting in LA).
2008
Lakers (+3) lost at Boston 98-88
Lakers (-1½) lost at Boston 108-102
Lakers (-9½) beat Boston 87-81
Lakers (-7½) lost to Boston 97-91
Lakers (-7½) beat Boston 103-98
Lakers (+4) lost to Boston 131-92
2010
Lakers (-6) beat Boston 102-89
Lakers (-6) lost to Boston 103-94
Lakers (+3) beat Boston 91-84
Lakers (+4) lost to Boston 96-89
Lakers (+3) lost to Boston 92-86
Straight Up: Lakers 4-6
Against the Spread: Lakers 2-8
Lakers fans already hated the Celtics before winning only 20% of their championship bets!
Home court advantage is usually worth about 4-5 points in a championship series. This year it's being priced around 4½ (9-point differential from place to place). Two years ago was a little weird because the market never did price Boston properly (Lakers 0-6 ATS). The prices are showing that the market believes Los Angeles was the better team both times. The actual final scores are showing that Boston has been the better team. That was decisively true back in 2008, and has been slightly true to this point in 2010.
Hence, the frowns on the faces of Lakers fans. And, the challenge for handicappers and bettors in determining if the Lakers can even be bet in these last two games. LA is 2-3 straight up as home favorites, 1-4 ATS over the two series. How can you lay 6 points or more with a team that can't even establish superiority over 11 championship round meetings with similar styles and personnel?
The market is still shaded in the direction of the Lakers. Will Kobe and company rally to a championship with a couple of big wins? Or, has little of magnitude changed since the 2008 meeting?

 

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MONEYLINES OF -200 AND HIGHER WILL BE COMMON THE REST OF THE SEASON
Based on some of the extremes we're seeing between have's and have-not's right now in Major League baseball, handicappers and legal sports bettors should get used to seeing some very high moneylines.
There are several good teams who will soon be in a position where they"have" to win because they're in pennant races. There are a few really bad teams who already look like they're playing out the string, and it's not even July yet.
As a general rule, I advise bettors not to lay big odds when it comes to baseball. You have to win a huge percentage of your games to make any money. If a team is a -200 favorite, that means"break even" for you is 67%. You have to win MORE than 67% of those big favorite bets to earn a profit. Tough task.
Most seasons those high lines are often"inflated" a bit anyway to shade against public money. Squares (the general public) love to bet on the best teams. They don't have a sense of what the right prices are in baseball, so sportsbooks shade against the squares to make sure they're getting the worst of it. So, when studying past records, you'll often see that taking big dogs was a money-maker.
This year though, and really since the economy went south, public action isn't that big a deal. Squares aren't betting much baseball, so sportsbooks are now defending against sharp action (from professional wagerers) rather than square action. Sharps are in the habit of fading the public and betting those big dogs. If you see -200 right now, it's probably a"fair" line rather than an inflated line.
Let me show you some subsets of teams who are crashing the -200 threshold in terms of wins and losses.
GOOD HOME RECORDS
Atlanta 26-8
NY Mets 28-12
Texas 28-12
NY Yankees 25-10
Detroit 25-11
Those teams would still be showing a profit at home if they were -200 every time out. I talked about the Rangers becoming very expensive the last time we were together. The Yanks are always expensive at home. Some of those other teams will be too if they keep this up.
BAD HOME RECORDS
Pittsburgh 9-31
Baltimore 8-29
Arizona 12-28
Seattle 11-26
Washington 13-27
Those are some extreme marks. The"old school" approach of just taking all big dogs because there's probably value has run into a brick wall with teams like this. You back Pittsburgh or Baltimore on the road at +200, and it kills you (those records would turn into 18-31 and 16-29 if the wins earned that price). What happens when a horrible road team plays a great home team? Looks like -200 is way too low.
No, I'm not about to endorse an investment strategy based on laying high prices. That's a thin margin of error you're dealing with, and there's no guarantee everyone will hold their current form. I do want you to be careful with any"fade the big favorites" type of strategy. Asking horrible teams to win for you is rarely a great approach. Asking great teams to play flat is more reasonable, but be sure you're really focusing on a flat spot rather than just crossing your fingers because you want to win a lottery.
If you're going to take flyers on big dogs:

• Look for quality dogs
• Take them with their best pitchers
• Look for spots where the favorite has a logical reason to be flat
• Look to go against the most vulnerable pitchers on a successful team rather than their aces.

I'll talk more about strategies for these kinds of games deeper into the season if the board is truly flooded with big numbers. Baseball used to be a sport of parity. Right now rich is running away from poor. If you want to be rich, you can't bet on the poor!

 

[BOOKIEBUSTERS]

Thanks for the input...I appreciate your advise...

BB

 

[ACE-ACE]

MORE SCORING, BETTER LINES, LEAD TO FEWER OVER/UNDER EXTREMES
Earlier this season we had several "extremes" records in terms of Over/Unders for Major League Baseball teams. Scoring was much lower than expected in the first couple of months, leading to some squads skewing way Under. A few were higher scoring than expected, leading to a handful of Over teams.
Heading into the July 4th weekend, things had moved significantly toward evening out. Why?

• Better lines! Oddsmakers finally got the numbers down to where they needed to be in the post-steroid era, particularly in the best pitcher's parks. You're seeing numbers in the 7's and even 6's with the best pitchers. That wasn't happening back in April. It's much more common now.
• Higher scoring! The weather warmed up, and so did the bats. I think many pitchers got a bit tired too because they were throwing more innings than normal early in the season. It all led to a slew of Overs. So, many of the teams that had been shading Under moved back toward even.
• Regression to the mean. No exclamation point there. Most extremes in all forms of gambling tend to do that. You had to figure that the extreme rush of Unders we were seeing early on would balance themselves out.

Here are the few teams still showing extreme (more than a 10-game differential) tendencies right now:
St. Louis 30-49 to the Under
The Cards are much more of a "pitching and defense" team than the market seems to realize. They're 11 games toward the Under at home, and 8 on the road, so this Under tendency is showing up everywhere. They do play at home in a pitcher's park, which may account for the slight differential there. Slugger Matt Holliday was in a prolonged slump too, which kept the team from lighting up the scoreboard no matter how good Albert Pujols was. I really like this pitching staff, and will look Under when the aces are on the mound.
Washington 32-49 to the Under:
Most of this is at home this year, where the Nationals have struggled to score but have posted great pitching numbers. The new ballpark was supposed to be better for pitchers than the old confines. This season it hasn't been, making Livan Hernandez look like Juan Marichal! The weather has warmed up in DC recently, but that hasn't helped scoring. Given the paucity of offensive weapons on this team, I'll keep looking Under until the pitcher's get tired.
Chicago Cubs 32-47 to the Under
It's funny, games have flown Over at Wrigley Field when the wind has been blowing out. So, the Cubbies are an EXTREME Under team when not playing in those conditions. The offense has just reeked this season, with all the high priced guys performing way below expectations. The pitching rotation is a good one, even with Carlos Zambrano keeping himself out of the mix with bad conditioning and bad behavior. You've seen some very low scores in Wrigley this week when the wind was blowing in. Oddsmakers have been slow to react here because the Cubs always seem to have a reputation of "all hit-no pitch" no matter what's actually happening on the field.
Arizona 48-31 to the Over
Only one team is extreme to the Over this year, and that's the Diamondbacks. They play in a high scoring home park, and have a disappointing pitching staff that gives up runs everywhere. They just fired the manager and GM because their team-building has left a lot to be desired lately. This is a team that's befuddled oddsmakers for a few years now. The guys behind the line always rank them as a contender, then the D-backs limp to a 70-win season and everyone wonders what happened. Maybe the new braintrust will have more success. I've learned over the years that teams often change their tendencies after a managerial switch...so I'll be watching the D-backs closely this weekend.

 

[ACE-ACE]

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
IT'S THE 'USUAL SUSPECTS' WHEN IT COMES
TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL FUTURES
Futures bets are almost always great money makers for sportsbooks. They don't offer true odds. People tend to bet longshots hoping to win a 'lottery' type miracle. Those lottery bets are so spread amongst various teams that they rarely punish a sportsbook even if they hit.
The only way a sportsbook takes a hit is if one big player steps up with a longshot that comes home. That can be painful, but it doesn't happen often. The pain in these props is usually inflicted on bettors, who take the worst of it except in very rare circumstances.
Many football fans are thinking about football futures right now. The NFL Preseason is still a few weeks away, and the college season is a month and a half away. Baseball doesn't catch the fancy of many of them (you probably heard about the very low TV ratings for the All-Star game this past Tuesday night, meaning baseball isn't catching the fancy of a lot of people!). Legal sports bettors want to bet some football, so they're looking at various odds to win conferences, championships etc...
Very soon regular season win totals for both the NFL and colleges will be out and available. When that happens I'll post them for you here in my web articles and talk about some of the possibilities. Today, and over the next few days, I want to talk about odds to win the BCS conferences. You're thinking about making some bets. I'm hear to guide you!
The first thing to remember is that it's typically the favorites, or the most highly regarded teams that win their leagues. It's very uncommon for somebody to come from out of nowhere to win a major conference. That's particularly true for those with a conference championship game because it's tough to get lucky in your own division, then ALSO win a huge game against a top notch competitor. Let's say lightning struck and somebody like Vandy won the SEC East. They still have to beat Alabama or an SEC West power in a big neutral site game to win a Futures bet for the conference title. Not likely.
Let's do a quick review of last year in the six BCS leagues:
*Georgia Tech won the ACC. They weren't preseason favorites (Virginia Tech was), but they were on the short list. The preseason polls had Georgia Tech as the second best team in the league.
*Cincinnati won the BIG EAST. They and Pittsburgh were basically co-favorites at the start of the season. Ultimately they played a wild game on the last weekend of the regular season to determine the league winner.
*Ohio State won the BIG TEN, as they were expected to.
*Texas won the BIG 12. They were co-favorites along with Oklahoma.
*Oregon won the PAC 10. This is the closest thing to a major shocker because everyone assumed it would be Southern Cal. Oregon was the third favorite though, just behind California. This was a highly regarded team, rather than somebody picked to finish 6th or 7th.
*Alabama won the SEC. They had to upset Florida to do it. But, Alabama was #5 in the preseason polls and didn't lose a game all year. This wasn't a longshot pulling off a miracle.
So, even though the consensus favorite failed to win the ACC, the Pac 10, and the SEC, the eventual winners still weren't offering very much value. You didn't get a huge return if you took a shot. And, many bettors didn't want to bet against USC or Florida winning their leagues anyway given all the preseason hype.
I'll start with the ACC today, then look at the other BCS leagues in upcoming reports. Here are the odds I've seen to win the ACC this year (meaning you have to win the conference championship game at the end of the year to be crowned the official champion).
FAVORITES (+300 to +500 range)
Virginia Tech
Florida State
Miami of Florida
North Carolina
POSSIBILITIES (+800 to +1200)
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Clemson
NOT SERIOUS THREATS (+3000 or higher)
Wake Forest
NC State
Virginia
Maryland
Duke
Oddsmakers have a knack for putting up numbers that encourage you to bet. You start talking yourself into things. 'I can see Miami of Florida continuing their improvement.' 'Georgia Tech won last year, they can do it again.' 'Hey, Clemson deserves more respect than that.'
Everyone talks themselves into a bet, and almost all of them will be wrong! That's how the house makes its money.
I'm not going to make preseason picks in these articles. Generally you should AVOID making Futures bets except in very rare circumstances. I plan on using these run-throughs to help outline expectations for the season...and to get you thinking about college football in a way that should be productive for when the season finally arrives.
Who do I like in general in the ACC? I've got at least four teams I think will offer value in the first month, and possibly in big games all season. I've got another three or four I plan on fading because they lost key personnel. And, that information stays under wraps!