Arkansas Derby preview.....Kentucky Derby prep race

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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues Saturday, April 1 with the Arkansas Derby, a Grade 1 major prep race held on a 1 1/8 mile track at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The race is for 3-year-olds and considered one of the main prep races for the upcoming Kentucky Derby. The purse for the race is $1.25 million.
Previous winners of the Arkansas Derby read like a who’s who among thoroughbreds. American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner, won the Derby in 2015. Curlin won in 2007 and went on to win the Preakness and earn Horse of the Year honors in 2007 and 2008. Afleet Alex won the event in 2005 and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. In 2004 it was Philadelphia-area horse Smarty Jones, who went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes during the Triple Crown season.

Reincarnate opened as the morning line favorite and drew a solid 8 post. Expect a battle between Reincarnate and 3-1 odds horse Red Route One from the 10 post. Both horses ran in the Grade 2 Rebel last month at Oaklawn and finished third and second respectively.
Reincarnate is going to be near the front to start with the expectation that the fast pace will keep him there. The main competitor, Red Route One, has strong closing speed but might lay back a little too long. Angel of Empire is another strong closer.
Red Route One should have the speed to cross the line first with Reincarnate faded down the stretch. Keep an eye on Two Eagles River (10-1) as a possible sleeper and definitely a part of any ticket.

2023 Arkansas Derby post positions with morning line​

  1. Bourbon Bash (15-1)
  2. Interlock Empire (20-1)
  3. Harlocap (15-1)
  4. Two Eagles River (10-1)
  5. Airtime (15-1)
  6. Angel of Empire (9-2)
  7. Rocket Can (4-1)
  8. Reincarnate (5-2)
  9. King Russell (30-1)
  10. Red Route One (3-1)
  11. Kolomio (30-1)
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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Arkansas Derby Odds​

This is the field for the 2023 Arkansas Derby, organized by post position. It includes their trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds as well.


PostHorseTrainerJockeyOdds
1Bourbon BashD. Wayne LukasReylu Gutierrez15-1
2Interlock EmpireKen McPeekDavid Cabrera20-1
3HarlocapSteve AsmussenRicardo Santana, Jr.15-1
4Two Eagles RiverChris HartmanNik Juarez10-1
5AirtimeRobertino DiodoroCristian Torres15-1
6Angel of EmpireBrad CoxFlavien Prat9-2
7Rocket CanBill MottJunior Alvarado4-1
8ReincarnateTim YakteenJohn Velazquez5-2
9King RussellRon MoquettRafael Bejarano15-1
10Red Route OneSteve AsmussenTyler Gaffalione3-1
11KolomioKeith DesormeauxJames Graham15-1

Arkansas Derby Prep Results​

Three of the Arkansas Derby runners come out of the final local prep, the Rebel. Red Route One and Reincarnate finished second and third, respectively, while Bourbon Bash was further back in fifth. Three other runners also come out of Road to the Kentucky Derby races outside of Oaklawn. Angel of Empire comes out of a victory in the Risen Star, Harlocap chased home sixth in the Risen Star, and Rocket Can was a good second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth.

The other five entrants come out of non-stakes races. Interlock Empire and King Russell are both last-out maiden winners at Oaklawn, while Interlock Empire and Two Eagles River cleared their first-level allowance conditions in Hot Springs last out. Kolomio was most recently third in a $50,000 starter-optional claiming race at Santa Anita, from which trainer Keith Desormeaux claimed him.

Arkansas Derby Contenders​

These are the contenders in the 2023 Arkansas Derby, organized by post position:


Bourbon Bash: He finished a well-beaten fifth in the Rebel last out, and coming out late in a 1 1/16-mile race is not a great sign for stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. His only win has come in a sprint, and he has been no threat in any of his graded-stakes starts. From a tough inside post in a big field, the odds are stacked against this D. Wayne Lukas trainee.

Interlock Empire: It took him four tries to break his maiden, but he finally put it together on March 11 in a one-mile race at Oaklawn. These foes will be tougher, however, and he will have to go a lot faster. The pace should be at least honest in front of him, but a collapse is not a foregone conclusion, and also, there are better-proven closers in the field.

Harlocap: Transferred out of the Baffert barn before the Risen Star, he was part of a nuclear early pace and weakened late to finish sixth in that race. His pedigree has some appeal for the stretch out, but he is drawn inside of some other speed, so he may not get the best trip, especially as a horse who so far looks like one-way pace.

Two Eagles River: In five starts, he hasn’t really had a bad effort yet, including a strong frontrunning win in an allowance on February 19. He broke his maiden from just off the pace, however, suggesting that he does have a passing gear. Trainer Chris Hartman is winning prodigiously at this Oaklawn meet, yet he is still a trainer who can fly under the radar in a bigger race like this. In short, he has some appeal at a price.

Airtime: He throttled starter-optional types two back, was claimed by his current connections, and beat conventional allowance foes next out. He is going the right way, and his stalking to midpack style suggests he can carve out a good trip. Class is the question; he has yet to face stakes company yet, and he has to take a step forward in terms of speed. Even so, he is consistent enough and likes Oaklawn enough to consider in deeper exotics.

Angel of Empire: Signals are mixed. He won the Risen Star nicely, closing into an extremely fast pace. He won’t get quite as fast a pace to close into this time, though he will get some speed in front of him. He has shown he likes Oaklawn, as well, and that Risen Star victory came at the same distance as the Arkansas Derby. But, it’s not a great sign that Luis Saez doesn’t stick with him, and rides the comparably unproven Mage in the Florida Derby instead.

Rocket Can: He has been going the right way, winning the Holy Bull (G3) two back and finishing a credible second to divisional leader Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2) last out. Even so, a pair of good efforts at Churchill suggest that he’s not just a Gulfstream Park horse, and can take his form on the road. The 1 1/8 miles should suit as well; he is by Into Mischief out of a Tapit mare with some stamina in the family.

Reincarnate: The morning-line favorite comes out of a third-place finish behind Confidence Game in the Rebel last out. He closed from near the rear after some early traffic, and still finished well despite checking near the eighth pole. Especially for a horse who had always run either on or near the lead in previous starts, that shows serious versatility and ability: the kinds of things a Derby prep winner, and even a Derby winners, is well served to have.

King Russell: It took him five starts to break his maiden, though all three of his two-turn starts at Oaklawn have been good enough efforts … at least for the level. But, he needs a serious step forward, and he is a closer who will face other closers who, so far, have shown a better closing kick than he has.

Red Route One: His only win came on the grass at Kentucky Downs, but he has become a credible dirt performer since, grabbing points in all four Road to the Kentucky Derby races he has tried, including after second-place finishes in the Southwest and the Rebel. He has been able to finish well whether the pace in front was truly hot or not; he is well-proven at Oaklawn, and has been strong over fast or wet dirt. He belongs in exotics.

Kolomio: He was well beaten in his only graded-stakes start so far. That did come on grass, as have his most recent starts. It’s hard to tell what his dirt form would be: his first two starts (when he was previously in the barn of Keith Desormeaux, who claimed him back last out) were off-the-board finishes, but he had a lot of trouble both times. He is by Constitution out of a Kitten’s Joy mare from an otherwise dirt-prominent family, so he has some upside, but this may be too much too soon.

Arkansas Derby Prior Winners and Pre-Race Trends​

Among the 11 Arkansas Derby winners in the last 10 years (there were two divisions in 2020), the Rebel has reigned supreme as a prep race. Six of those 11 winners came straight out of the Rebel. American Pharoah (2015), Magnum Moon (2018), Omaha Beach (2019), and Nadal (2020) won it, while Creator (2016) was third and Super Stock (2021) was fourth.

Two others came out of points races at other tracks. Overanalyze (2013) was most recently fifth in the Gotham (G3), while Classic Empire (2017) was second in the Holy Bull (G2). The other three recent winners came out of allowance races. Cyberknife (2022) came out of an allowance win at Fair Grounds, and Danza (2014) was third in an allowance at Gulfstream, though both had previous graded experience. Charlatan (2020), who came out of a Santa Anita allowance win, was the only winner in the last ten years who made his graded debut in the Arkansas Derby.

Arkansas Derby Undercard​

The Arkansas Derby is the 13th of 14 races on Saturday’s mammoth card at Oaklawn. The card features a 100-point Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep, the $600,000 Fantasy (G3), as well as the $400,000 Oaklawn Mile (G3) for older dirt milers and the $200,000 Hot Springs for sophomore dirt milers. With six- and seven-figure purses all day long, make sure to watch and wager on the card through FanDuel and TVG!

Oaklawn Park History​

Back in 1905, the Hot Springs Mayor declared a half-day holiday for the opening of Oaklawn Park, with over 3,000 people attending the track on its first day of racing. The holiday heralded the beginning of a tradition that has lasted for over a century!

Due to political issues, no racing took place at Oaklawn between 1907 and 1916, but after a sustained period of action, the now-famous Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 with a purse of $5,000 offered to entrants.

By 1952 Oaklawn could boast daily attendances of almost 8,000 people and an average daily handle of well over $400,000, figures which rose by the turn of the decade to 10,000 and $500,000, respectively, with the Arkansas Derby purse increasing to $50,000 by 1965.

The track continued to go from strength to strength, and during a 50-day meeting in 1970, an average of 11,000 people were attending daily, with over $43,000,000 wagered over the course of the meet.

In the mid-70s, Oaklawn gave birth to the Racing Festival of the South, with pari-mutuel wagering amounting to a cool $80,000,000 that season, and by the 80s, over a quarter of a million people were attending the festival each year. By then, the purse for the Arkansas Derby was up at $500,000, and a new single-day attendance record was set with 71,000 showing up to see Rampage win the big race in 1986.

Ten years later, Arkansas Derby day saw a total handle of over $10.5 million, and by the turn of the millennium, Oaklawn was still seeing increases in attendance and wagering, meaning the track stands as one of the best in the country at present.
 
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I like #7 Rocket Can. Won the Holy Bull 2 back and then finished 2nd behind early Detby favorite Forte in the FOY at Gulfstream. Improving speed figures with ever race. Doesn’t have to face Forte today, who will be the favorite in the Florida Derby on Saturday. Should get a good stalking trip behind probable pacesetters Two Eagles River and Harlocap.
 
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#6 Angel of Empire

Over in any order:

#5 Airtime
#7 Rocket Can
#8 Reincarnate
#10 Red Route One
 

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I will never play Oaklawn again after they fired Vic a few weeks ago over his tweet
 

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I have never bet on horses even though it is probably the most "sport" that is associated with gambling.

How does 1 cap horse racing? Aside from that 1 well known trainer.
 

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