I am a die hard cats fan, but Texas -2.5 is the call tonight. Cats lack of depth in the middle will be the difference.
On paper and in reality the Arizona-Texas matchup tonight in Madison Square Garden appears to be a mismatch favoring the No. 6 Longhorns.
Depth? Texas has it. Experience? Texas has it. Frontcourt power? Texas has that, too.
More than anything, however, what Texas has are athletes that can keep up with Arizona’s six-man relay team, and a steady point guard who won’t be rattled when the Wildcats turn up the defensive pressure.
All of those things equal one ominous combination for depth-starved Arizona.
What immediately jumps out at you about Texas is how much brute strength it has along its frontline. Texas’ strength is Arizona’s most glaring weakness, and that’s never a good thing. How will Channing Frye, UA’s only reliable frontcourt weapon with any kind of (relative) bulk, hope to go blow for blow with James Thomas and Co. from Texas?
Reality says he can’t.
Ah, but here comes the beauty of college basketball, or, more precisely, of Arizona basketball. In almost every situation where the Wildcats looked to be facing an “un-winnable” game, Lute Olson and his teams have simply found a way to either win the game outright or take it down to the buzzer.
Texas looks like an un-winnable game if you factor in Arizona’s poor showing against Saint Louis on Saturday afternoon, when UA eked out a one-point win over a game Biliken team. Texas has to be what, five times better than Saint Louis? Maybe ten?
The difference is that Texas is going to play the kind of game Arizona fits into naturally, an up-tempo, fast-paced, high scoring affair for athletes only. Arizona usually wins these kinds of games, although it’s 0-1 on the year after a one-point loss to now-No. 1 Florida two weeks ago.
The Wildcats have been tested, playing two tough games, one on a neutral court on the east coast, and another tough one on the road. Texas, on the other hand, has beaten up on four 98-pound weaklings. Traditional patsies like Brown, Sam Houston, Centenary and Wofford. Doing so likely has helped Texas to learn nothing about what it’s like to play with pressure or face adversity.
The Horns (4-0) have plenty of experience leftover from last year’s Final Four team, but the newcomers like point guard Edgar Moreno and freshman phenom P.J. Tucker have yet to experience stress on the major Division I level. Stress is guarding the hyperkinetic Salim Stoudamire or being harassed by the small but explosive Hassan Adams in the post.
Still, tonight’s game looks like a mismatch in every category except talent. Arizona has plenty of talent per capita, even if it does only use a six-man playing rotation. Texas, with its frontcourt that goes five deep, has so many options available that it makes UA’s situation seem bleak at best, hopeless at worst. The Horns have 25 fouls to give, while UA has but Frye’s allotment of five.
For the Cats to stay close in this game, they have to play with a controlled aggression. Committing stupid fouls is a good way to help UA lose by double-figures.
It’s likely that all six of Arizona’s regulars will see 30-plus minutes of action, and that a few of them play the full 40. A game like this, on a neutral floor and in America’s grandest stage (MSG), it is imperative that Arizona plays with intelligence, toughness, and hunger. Texas most certainly will be ready, having lost to Arizona every time the two teams have met dating back to 1996 (0-7).
Has injured-UA center Isaiah Fox ever been missed more than he will be tonight?
--The Longhorns are still a very fast team even without departed NCAA Player of the Year point guard T.J. Ford. Ivey is a converted off-guard who starts at the point for UT, while Moreno is more of a pass-first playmaker who leads the team in assists and has an amazing 6.3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Mouton and Harris are dynamic scorers who can shoot from outside. Neither, however, has much in the way of a floor game, and that basically means don’t count on much out of them in terms of passing or hitting the glass. Kenny Taylor is a transfer from Baylor who can shoot from long range with the best in America. He attempted 223 three-pointers as a sophomore last year and made 39% of those shots.
Arizona will have to keep a hand in Harris’ face all night, as he likes to primarily stay around the perimeter and launch threes (he was 3-9 at McKale last year). Mouton is the best backcourt player that Texas has, so expect UA to rotate Stoudamire and Chris Rodgers on him defensively. Of the Horns’ three returning guards that lost to UA last year, that trio combined to shoot just 5-20 against the Wildcats.
Arizona Backcourt
Shakur needs to make a huge improvement from the game he had against Saint Louis (1-7 shooting, very little impact overall) and stay on the floor for an extended amount of time to counter Texas’ perimeter depth. He’s capable of making the offense go for Arizona thanks to his playmaking skills and penetration ability. He does not have to shoot 10 times per game to be effective. Stoudamire semi-broke out of his shooting slump against the Bilikens, making 50% of his shots in the second half, and many of them of the clutch variety. He also scored a team and season-high 19 points. Stoudamire has to have a hot start shooting the ball tonight so that Texas can’t simply pack its defense in on Channing Frye down low. Rodgers has been a very pleasant surprise for UA so far with his 13.7 points per game (second on the team) and 53% shooting from long range. He’ll need to duplicate those numbers and play smart, on-ball defense for UA to have a chance to win tonight.
ADVANTAGE: Push.
Texas Frontcourt
--Against Arizona a year ago, James Thomas was a force, scoring 20 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in a three-point loss in Tucson. He abused then-sophomore center Channing Frye, holding him to one point and three rebounds in only 12 ineffective minutes. Thomas is the main reason why UT has to be favored to win tonight. Buckman fouled out of last year’s meeting, but has shown tremendous improvement since that time. He’s a legitimate double-double threat each time out, and he was a McDonald’s All-American out of high school. He might be the biggest match-up problem facing Arizona. Tucker is a freshman from North Carolina who plays like a man 6-10 instead of 6-5. He’s instant energy and instant offense off the bench for Rick Barnes’ team. Look for him to make an impact tonight. Boddicker is tall, has a nice, big body, but basically amounts to a glorified shooting guard or European big man. He likes to float around the perimeter. Klotz provides depth, fouls, and another body to bang around with the depleted Arizona frontliners.
Arizona Frontcourt
*Channing Frye, 6-11, 250 Jr. C (14.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.3 blocks, .545 FG%)
*Andre Iguodala, 6-6, 215 Soph. SF (13.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 5.3 apg)
*Hassan Adams, 6-4, 205 Soph. G/F (11.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.3 spg, 3.3 blocks)
Kirk Walters, 6-11, 220 Fr. C (1.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 8.0 minutes)
For Arizona, it’s as simple as this: get Channing Frye the ball or lose the game. Frye has to do a better job of establishing position for himself on the low blocks, demanding the ball, and then scoring when he gets his touches. If he disappears the way he did against Saint Louis and in the second half against Florida, his reputation will read: “S-O-F-T”, and that’s a label that has proven to be hard to shake. He was terrible against Texas last year, so redemption is a must. Iguodala and Adams have to be reliable with their shots from 15-feet and out, but what makes them special is their floor game (Iguodala), positional flexibility (Adams), and athleticism (both). Adams is at a severe disadvantage strength and size-wise against Buckman, but his explosiveness and speed should help to somewhat neutralize that. Walters may not even see any game time, but if he does, he’ll need to be sure-handed with the ball, and not let himself get pushed around on defense. This will be Arizona’s biggest challenge of the season as far as frontcourt matchups go.
ADVANTAGE: Texas.
Official Prediction: Texas 84, Arizona 77.
On paper and in reality the Arizona-Texas matchup tonight in Madison Square Garden appears to be a mismatch favoring the No. 6 Longhorns.
Depth? Texas has it. Experience? Texas has it. Frontcourt power? Texas has that, too.
More than anything, however, what Texas has are athletes that can keep up with Arizona’s six-man relay team, and a steady point guard who won’t be rattled when the Wildcats turn up the defensive pressure.
All of those things equal one ominous combination for depth-starved Arizona.
What immediately jumps out at you about Texas is how much brute strength it has along its frontline. Texas’ strength is Arizona’s most glaring weakness, and that’s never a good thing. How will Channing Frye, UA’s only reliable frontcourt weapon with any kind of (relative) bulk, hope to go blow for blow with James Thomas and Co. from Texas?
Reality says he can’t.
Ah, but here comes the beauty of college basketball, or, more precisely, of Arizona basketball. In almost every situation where the Wildcats looked to be facing an “un-winnable” game, Lute Olson and his teams have simply found a way to either win the game outright or take it down to the buzzer.
Texas looks like an un-winnable game if you factor in Arizona’s poor showing against Saint Louis on Saturday afternoon, when UA eked out a one-point win over a game Biliken team. Texas has to be what, five times better than Saint Louis? Maybe ten?
The difference is that Texas is going to play the kind of game Arizona fits into naturally, an up-tempo, fast-paced, high scoring affair for athletes only. Arizona usually wins these kinds of games, although it’s 0-1 on the year after a one-point loss to now-No. 1 Florida two weeks ago.
The Wildcats have been tested, playing two tough games, one on a neutral court on the east coast, and another tough one on the road. Texas, on the other hand, has beaten up on four 98-pound weaklings. Traditional patsies like Brown, Sam Houston, Centenary and Wofford. Doing so likely has helped Texas to learn nothing about what it’s like to play with pressure or face adversity.
The Horns (4-0) have plenty of experience leftover from last year’s Final Four team, but the newcomers like point guard Edgar Moreno and freshman phenom P.J. Tucker have yet to experience stress on the major Division I level. Stress is guarding the hyperkinetic Salim Stoudamire or being harassed by the small but explosive Hassan Adams in the post.
Still, tonight’s game looks like a mismatch in every category except talent. Arizona has plenty of talent per capita, even if it does only use a six-man playing rotation. Texas, with its frontcourt that goes five deep, has so many options available that it makes UA’s situation seem bleak at best, hopeless at worst. The Horns have 25 fouls to give, while UA has but Frye’s allotment of five.
For the Cats to stay close in this game, they have to play with a controlled aggression. Committing stupid fouls is a good way to help UA lose by double-figures.
It’s likely that all six of Arizona’s regulars will see 30-plus minutes of action, and that a few of them play the full 40. A game like this, on a neutral floor and in America’s grandest stage (MSG), it is imperative that Arizona plays with intelligence, toughness, and hunger. Texas most certainly will be ready, having lost to Arizona every time the two teams have met dating back to 1996 (0-7).
Has injured-UA center Isaiah Fox ever been missed more than he will be tonight?
--The Longhorns are still a very fast team even without departed NCAA Player of the Year point guard T.J. Ford. Ivey is a converted off-guard who starts at the point for UT, while Moreno is more of a pass-first playmaker who leads the team in assists and has an amazing 6.3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Mouton and Harris are dynamic scorers who can shoot from outside. Neither, however, has much in the way of a floor game, and that basically means don’t count on much out of them in terms of passing or hitting the glass. Kenny Taylor is a transfer from Baylor who can shoot from long range with the best in America. He attempted 223 three-pointers as a sophomore last year and made 39% of those shots.
Arizona will have to keep a hand in Harris’ face all night, as he likes to primarily stay around the perimeter and launch threes (he was 3-9 at McKale last year). Mouton is the best backcourt player that Texas has, so expect UA to rotate Stoudamire and Chris Rodgers on him defensively. Of the Horns’ three returning guards that lost to UA last year, that trio combined to shoot just 5-20 against the Wildcats.
Arizona Backcourt
Shakur needs to make a huge improvement from the game he had against Saint Louis (1-7 shooting, very little impact overall) and stay on the floor for an extended amount of time to counter Texas’ perimeter depth. He’s capable of making the offense go for Arizona thanks to his playmaking skills and penetration ability. He does not have to shoot 10 times per game to be effective. Stoudamire semi-broke out of his shooting slump against the Bilikens, making 50% of his shots in the second half, and many of them of the clutch variety. He also scored a team and season-high 19 points. Stoudamire has to have a hot start shooting the ball tonight so that Texas can’t simply pack its defense in on Channing Frye down low. Rodgers has been a very pleasant surprise for UA so far with his 13.7 points per game (second on the team) and 53% shooting from long range. He’ll need to duplicate those numbers and play smart, on-ball defense for UA to have a chance to win tonight.
ADVANTAGE: Push.
Texas Frontcourt
--Against Arizona a year ago, James Thomas was a force, scoring 20 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in a three-point loss in Tucson. He abused then-sophomore center Channing Frye, holding him to one point and three rebounds in only 12 ineffective minutes. Thomas is the main reason why UT has to be favored to win tonight. Buckman fouled out of last year’s meeting, but has shown tremendous improvement since that time. He’s a legitimate double-double threat each time out, and he was a McDonald’s All-American out of high school. He might be the biggest match-up problem facing Arizona. Tucker is a freshman from North Carolina who plays like a man 6-10 instead of 6-5. He’s instant energy and instant offense off the bench for Rick Barnes’ team. Look for him to make an impact tonight. Boddicker is tall, has a nice, big body, but basically amounts to a glorified shooting guard or European big man. He likes to float around the perimeter. Klotz provides depth, fouls, and another body to bang around with the depleted Arizona frontliners.
Arizona Frontcourt
*Channing Frye, 6-11, 250 Jr. C (14.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.3 blocks, .545 FG%)
*Andre Iguodala, 6-6, 215 Soph. SF (13.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 5.3 apg)
*Hassan Adams, 6-4, 205 Soph. G/F (11.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.3 spg, 3.3 blocks)
Kirk Walters, 6-11, 220 Fr. C (1.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 8.0 minutes)
For Arizona, it’s as simple as this: get Channing Frye the ball or lose the game. Frye has to do a better job of establishing position for himself on the low blocks, demanding the ball, and then scoring when he gets his touches. If he disappears the way he did against Saint Louis and in the second half against Florida, his reputation will read: “S-O-F-T”, and that’s a label that has proven to be hard to shake. He was terrible against Texas last year, so redemption is a must. Iguodala and Adams have to be reliable with their shots from 15-feet and out, but what makes them special is their floor game (Iguodala), positional flexibility (Adams), and athleticism (both). Adams is at a severe disadvantage strength and size-wise against Buckman, but his explosiveness and speed should help to somewhat neutralize that. Walters may not even see any game time, but if he does, he’ll need to be sure-handed with the ball, and not let himself get pushed around on defense. This will be Arizona’s biggest challenge of the season as far as frontcourt matchups go.
ADVANTAGE: Texas.
Official Prediction: Texas 84, Arizona 77.
