Arena Week 1

[ppeter]

For those who are new around here, this is my 4th season of posting arena plays. I have never had a losing season, but came pretty damn close last year. I was humming along but crashed and burned around mid-season. I finished around +10 units, a far cry from my usual performance, so beware.

In any event, here are my first plays for Friday:

GR +14 5 units (Betmaker) (Play of the Week), GR +425 ML 1 unit
This is an ABSURD line and is about 10 pts too high. I was stunned to see this line so high. GR is a completely revamped team with Chris Jackson, Cecil Dogette, Michael Bishop, Nick Browder, Anthony Hines, and many more new and returning impact players. Chris Jacskson alone is worth 1-2 extra tds a game. Their new coach is no slouch either, as Sparky McEwen is a Grand Rapids native and is regarded as an offensive whiz kid. The crowd should be really pumped to see this new team and their native son coach, and the team is practically giving tickets away to get attendance up (attendence is always an issue after you go 1-15). GR is IMO the most improved team in the AFL. It would not suprise me to see GR win straight up. Arizona has an roster of aging players and has a new coach themselves. GR is a team to watch, as even if they come out slow for this game with all the new faces, they should still be underrated as they gell as the season moves on.

GR/Ariz over 90.5 3 units (Betmaker)
This is more of an corelated play that GR scores at least 38 pts (thus cannot lose side and total). I am confident GR scores 30 something for the first half, much less the game. No doubt Arizona will get their points as well.

 

[AFLGuru]

PPeter--

Welcome aboard. Glad to see there's at least more than just me capping these games. Anyway, last season got to be a bit hairy down the stretch. Once we get into the season about 5 weeks, I want to show you something I think I figured out last season about the oddsmakers that might give us a massive head start on the books, beating all line movement. But anyway, I love the pick. I don't know about GR straight up beating Arizona (though it'd be nice since I bet Arizona under 10 wins this season), but I've said all week that I thought the Rampage would keep this game close for at least 3 quarters. Hope they pull it out for ya. For the record, the over in that game was one of my two strongest plays of the week.

One other question that I've been bouncing around with anyone else who knows what they're talking about with the AFL... Do you think Nashville has a chance to win the division their first year out? Leon Murray finally looked like a legit QB in this league at the end of last season when Georgia went on their run, Jarrick Hillary is a hell of a ballplayer, and they have the best (at least defensively) lineman in the game in James Baron (who I believe is worth 1 stop per game for as many sacks as he gets). I think the defense is solid, and if Leon Murray can put 50 ppg on the board that the team's got a shot. I don't think as highly of Chicago and Colorado as most do, and with the way their schedule is set, why not?

I know the opening part of the schedule is simply *****, though I believe they can beat anyone at home (are you paying attention Arizona???). Though there are some obvious L's on the schedule (at least once with both Colorado and Chicago and at San Jose... likely at New Orleans as well), I think this team is gonna sneak up on people. I'm on them this week +4 against Columbus, and again, it wouldn't surprise me if they win the game. Leon Murray's no Andy Kelly in his prime, but Pat Sperdeudo is a hell of a coach who can take a team like this from nowhere to pull some massive upsets... For the record, that team over 5.5 wins is ludicrous. That's throwing away money to the real bettors. Only people who see the "expansion" tag and the really good odds will consider taking under... Oh yeah, Austin beat Orlando in the Jungle to start their season, and New Orleans only went 10-6 in the hardest division in football (because there were FIVE solid teams instead of the 4 in the west... more bad road trips) and hosted a playoff game. Both teams ticked 5.5 wins, even though Austin pushed it close (6-10).

Just wanted your thoughts... Great to have you onboard.

-AFLGuru:toast:

 

[ppeter]

Guru

Leon Murray scares me, he is so turnover prone. He might finally put it all together this season, but until he proves otherwise I have little faith in him.

 

[AFLGuru]

PPeter--

With James Baron not playing tonight I kinda feel a bit screwed and not overly optimistic about the Kats chances of winning or covering. But since that report came out about a week and a half after I placed the bet I guess there's nothing to do about it. Leon Murray looked damn good down the stretch last year, and I hope that leads to some success in Nashville too.

Thanks for the advice.

-AFLGuru

 

[ppeter]

PPeter--

With James Baron not playing tonight I kinda feel a bit screwed and not overly optimistic about the Kats chances of winning or covering. But since that report came out about a week and a half after I placed the bet I guess there's nothing to do about it. Leon Murray looked damn good down the stretch last year, and I hope that leads to some success in Nashville too.

Thanks for the advice.

-AFLGuru

Yeah, that is too bad. I still like your pick, though. GLTA

 

[AFLGuru]

Peter--

Rough break with the damn Rampage. Who would've thought their offense would've mustered a total of 3 offensive TDs... thank goodness for the return game or you wouldn't have hit your over either (I sweated out the over myself for the same 3 units). Guess the Rampage's worst offense last year is translating out to the same crap this year... just a different stiff at QB. Browder blows. 4 fumbles in just over a quarter??? Unacceptable. Here's to Michael Bishop!

You'll get 'em on Sunday.

--AFLGuru

 

[ppeter]

Yep, Browder was a turnover machine. What a stinker. I think I had the game capped correctly (that GR would score at least 38) but I didn't predict Browder would have all those fumbles. I was really hoping Bishop was going to start or get significant pt.

You had a terrific start, I tailed you for a little on your Nashville pick. Keep it up!

 

[ppeter]

Adding:

San Jose -7 2 units
Las Vegas -6.5 3 units
Las Vegas und 102 2 units
NO +2 2 units
NO over 89 2 units

no time for write ups

 

[Vegasvice]

Clueless AFL announcers.

These announcers on the Las Vegas-LA game were clueless that the pointspread was at stake for the last 20 seconds of the game. LOL. And the game was in Las Vegas.

 

[OKSOONER]

:sad3: I must agree the guys are slow. Seems like another disapointed year in L.A. Q.B. looks lame!!

 

[ppeter]

for the week, 4-2-1 +2.5 units.

I am happy with the Sunday recovery after the big play went down.

Congrats to the AFL Guru for his awesome start---hopefully we can "tag team" the man!

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey nice job ppeter on Sunday. Wanted real bad to take New Orleans when that line jumped to a ridiculous THREE, but decided to lean towards SJ instead at the very last moment... oh well. I've already got my eye on a couple games for next week that I think will have some very enticing lines, but I suppose I must wait until "the man" decides how he thinks the games are gonna go (or at least what gets him his money!).

How about Dallas this week?!? Knew there'd be some upsets. Tampa obviously, but Dallas? Unreal. Didn't think Clint Stoener had a shot against the Rush. But considering they were 21 down early, they played a hell of a game to get themselves back in it. And another note: Predators defense: MUCH better than last year's bunch. If they stay healthy, they may not let a team get to 55 this year. I'd be shocked if they averaged giving up more than 45 a game. Solid, solid game against Dutton and the Crush.
--AFLGuru:toast: