My rule is that the bigger a fav it is, the bigger the difference has to be between what I think the proper odds are and what they really are. For example, if I think a team should be at -200, then I will bet it if it is -150 or better. If I think it should be at -150 I'll bet it if it's -125 or better. If I think it should be even money, then I'll bet it if it's +105 or better.
I think this kind of sliding scale approach makes more sense than a hard and fast rule like the one you mention.
I think this kind of sliding scale approach makes more sense than a hard and fast rule like the one you mention.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by MadCapper:
Bases?
My rule in bases is never to bet anything more than a -160 favorite.
-MC<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Mad, how can you say that? What if Pedro is pitching at home and the line is so waaaay off and instead of -230, for some reason, the linesmakers make it -165, you're not going to lay it because it's over -160?
Bases?
My rule in bases is never to bet anything more than a -160 favorite.
-MC<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Mad, how can you say that? What if Pedro is pitching at home and the line is so waaaay off and instead of -230, for some reason, the linesmakers make it -165, you're not going to lay it because it's over -160?
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sick gambler:
NO
That is a myth.. You can find value on a -260 sometimes, too.. If a line is off, it's off. Don't make a difference how much you're laying.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
And the preacher spoke and the congregation listened.
NO
That is a myth.. You can find value on a -260 sometimes, too.. If a line is off, it's off. Don't make a difference how much you're laying.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
And the preacher spoke and the congregation listened.
Mad, listen well. The reason why it don't matter what you're laying is because if you find a game that you handicapped and see it has a better than 62% chance of winning, and you are laying -160, then it's worth it to lay it. If you find a game that according to you, will win 75% of the time, and you are laying -260, play it.. You will end up a winner. The juice has NOTHING to do with winning or losing, it's all in the value.
Would you lay -2200 on an NBA game. Probably not right? But what if that game happens to be the Lakers at home and they are a 23.5 point favorite and all they have to do is win outright and not cover. Wouldn't laying 2200 become a good bet because they will win outright a good 96% of the time, which would show a profit.
Remember, what you lay or take has nothing to do with being a good bet or not. If that line is off according to your numbers, then bet it...
Would you lay -2200 on an NBA game. Probably not right? But what if that game happens to be the Lakers at home and they are a 23.5 point favorite and all they have to do is win outright and not cover. Wouldn't laying 2200 become a good bet because they will win outright a good 96% of the time, which would show a profit.
Remember, what you lay or take has nothing to do with being a good bet or not. If that line is off according to your numbers, then bet it...
Ok, somehow I get the feeling Jay Leno is being a little sarcastic with me now..
Yes mad, they might have lost, but they will win 19 out of 20 times, which would show you a profit. That happened to have been the 1 time they didn't cover.
Fish, good example of Pedro. That's why it is silly when people say they won't lay over -160 no matter who's playing.
And Jay Leno, once again, stop mocking me you bastard..
Yes mad, they might have lost, but they will win 19 out of 20 times, which would show you a profit. That happened to have been the 1 time they didn't cover.
Fish, good example of Pedro. That's why it is silly when people say they won't lay over -160 no matter who's playing.
And Jay Leno, once again, stop mocking me you bastard..
"Just curious if this is good strategy to help a newer guy do better.", Key phrase "newer guy", I assume that to mean someone who is still trying to figure out the difference between being on the value side of a bet and winning a bet.In my opinion you will find value more often in games at -150 or better then Vice-versa.-115 if you are talking about ML betting is eliminating a pretty large pool.You can get in a hell of a lot of trouble faster betting -200 then -110.
