fast start system / 20 point system / point differential for teams in playoffs
Bal 6 of 6, +17 (point differential +196)
SF 6 of 6, +12 (point differential +193)
Clev 4 of 6, +10 (point differential +34)
Hous 5 of 6, +5, (+24)
Miami 4 of 6, +2 (+105)
KC 6 of 6, +12 (+77)
Phil 6 of 6, 0 (+5)
TB 5 of 6, +9 (+23)
Pitt 2 of 6, +10 (-20)
Buff 6 of 6, +12 (+140)
GB 5 of 6, +3 (+33)
Dall 6 of 6, +17 (+194)
Rams 5 of 6, 0 (+19)
Det 6 of 6, +2 (+66)
wildcard angles, pertaining to this weekend's games, from GAME posted over the years,
Wildcard games where both teams failed to make the playoffs the previous year, home team 4-14 su and 2-16 ats since 2006. Play on Cleveland and Rams.
Wildcard dogs playing an opponent who missed playoffs previous season, 12-1 last 5 years. Play on Houston and Rams. Cleveland and Houston eliminate each other.
NFL playoffs weekend - home favs less than -3 are 1-8-1 ats. Watch the Detroit line at -3, if it should drop by gametime Sunday night, that would be a play on the Rams.
After all this, looks like the Rams would be a play.
Bal 6 of 6, +17 (point differential +196)
SF 6 of 6, +12 (point differential +193)
Clev 4 of 6, +10 (point differential +34)
Hous 5 of 6, +5, (+24)
Miami 4 of 6, +2 (+105)
KC 6 of 6, +12 (+77)
Phil 6 of 6, 0 (+5)
TB 5 of 6, +9 (+23)
Pitt 2 of 6, +10 (-20)
Buff 6 of 6, +12 (+140)
GB 5 of 6, +3 (+33)
Dall 6 of 6, +17 (+194)
Rams 5 of 6, 0 (+19)
Det 6 of 6, +2 (+66)
wildcard angles, pertaining to this weekend's games, from GAME posted over the years,
Wildcard games where both teams failed to make the playoffs the previous year, home team 4-14 su and 2-16 ats since 2006. Play on Cleveland and Rams.
Wildcard dogs playing an opponent who missed playoffs previous season, 12-1 last 5 years. Play on Houston and Rams. Cleveland and Houston eliminate each other.
NFL playoffs weekend - home favs less than -3 are 1-8-1 ats. Watch the Detroit line at -3, if it should drop by gametime Sunday night, that would be a play on the Rams.
After all this, looks like the Rams would be a play.
Thanks Pieface for posting all this info. Are you going to have the final #'s on all the teams after the regular season ended? SDS used to post them but doesn't seem like he's around anymore, appreciate your time and effort for posting this info and if you have the final numbers for each team can you post them. I'd like to post the numbers for each team every week like Game and Sds posted. Again, Thank You Very Much Pieface
I added Off/Def EPA (Expected Points Added) which is a analytical team statistic to the Fast Start system. My objective was to use the 6/6 fast start teams in conjunction with EPA to help determine a Super Bowl matchup, also keeping in the back of my mind the 5/6 fast start teams.
Last season using EPA along with the fast start system produced a KC/PHI Super Bowl matchup. This season they both have produced a SF/BUFF matchup. The EPA graph and 6/6, 5/6 remaining fast start teams are below.
The EPA chart is using ONLY weeks 1-4 because that's the guidline for the Fast Start system. You'll notice in the chart Miami is the top team but don't qualify due to having a 4/6 fast start result.
6/6
1Baltimore
1San Francisco
2Buffalo
3Kansas City
3Detroit
5/6
4Tampa Bay
4Houston
7Green Bay
Last season using EPA along with the fast start system produced a KC/PHI Super Bowl matchup. This season they both have produced a SF/BUFF matchup. The EPA graph and 6/6, 5/6 remaining fast start teams are below.
The EPA chart is using ONLY weeks 1-4 because that's the guidline for the Fast Start system. You'll notice in the chart Miami is the top team but don't qualify due to having a 4/6 fast start result.
6/6
1Baltimore
1San Francisco
2Buffalo
3Kansas City
3Detroit
5/6
4Tampa Bay
4Houston
7Green Bay
Attachments
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20240116_082927.jpg
Here's the week 1-4 EPA chart from last season that I mentioned that produced a KC/PHI Super Bowl Matchup of 6/6, 5/6 Fast Start teams.
Attachments
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20240116_084326.jpg
At Circa the Super Bowl Exacta odds are...
SF defeat BUFF +700
BUFF defeat SF +1000
...I bet them both but a little more on BUFF winning at +1000. I hope some of you find this useful. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask.
SF defeat BUFF +700
BUFF defeat SF +1000
...I bet them both but a little more on BUFF winning at +1000. I hope some of you find this useful. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask.
FYI I did cash this last season at +1400
Dogs went 3-1 on WC weekend....pretty standard.
Time to hammer the faves
Baltimore in a blowout - 20+ points
San Fran -9 - Packers keep it close for the 1st half, Niners roll in the 2nd covering the number - Niners healthy again
Detroit - lines seems pretty accurate, although I could see them stumble here as Detroit always does
Buffalo gets revenge - lay the points
Loser. Its the exact outcome of the SB
