HERE IS WHAT MY CUSTOMERS RECIEVED ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
BTW, IF YOU WANT TO RECIEVE MY NFL WRITEUPS FOR THIS WEEK (FREE), E-MAIL ME AT: WSYSTEMS@HOTMAIL.COM BEFORE 12 ET ON SUNDAY !!!!!!!!!!!
Boston College -2.5 @ Maryland
Play: Boston College -2.5
B.C. was one of the best redzone edge teams last week but unfortunatelly I was not brave enough to put them on my 'play list' because of NCST road dog success in recent years. This week I'm going with BC no matter what, as they have a huge edge in the redzone over Maryland. Their redzone efficiency is especially good in last 4 games and should I mention that they did not allow a TD in the redzone in last two games. Maryland is not all that bad in the redzone offensively, but defensively they are not good at all. Also, my stats show BC as a top 10 running edge play, and they are the only small fav on my 'neutralize opponents best asset'list. Maryland's main strength this season is their offense and BC defense is more than capable of neutraling Maryland offense. Maryland already lost three home games this season, and their homefield advantage is not great at all, at least not this year. BC was very impressive until they run into the unbeaten Virginia Tech. It took them some time to recover after that loss, and they did it last week vs NCST.
Play on road teams that just ended a 2+gms losing streak with a 3+pts home fav win, against teams that snapped a 2+losing streak as road dog, with a 3-pts win: 18-2 ATS L10Y (Play on Boston College)
LSU -17 @ Ole' Miss
Play: Ole' Miss +17
No doubt in my mind that LSU is a much better team than Miss. However, in this particular matchup, and in this particular situation, I simply love Mississippi. Redzone wise, LSU is better, but not nearly enough to be favored by this many pts on the road. Actually, Miss. redzone defense is just as good as LSU's. Miss.'overall defense is just 3-6 pts worst than LSU's. Both teams played a bunch of low scoring games this season, especially lately, and I expect another defensive battle here, in which getting 17 pts could be huge. LSU is coming off of a huge OT win at Alabama and they could have a nice little letdown here. They have beaten Mississippi by three points or less three straight times. Last year, they beat them 27:24. LSU was on a 4 games win streak and Mississippi was on a 3 games losing streak (including two blowout losses) going into that contest but it didn't matter. LSU stil had troubles with Ole Miss. Two years back, the Championship LSU team beat Miss. by 3 and that was the only non cover for LSU from 18.oct to the Championship game vs Oklahoma in January of that year. Three years ago, Mississippi was on a four game losing streak when they met LSU and they lost by only 1, and that was their closest loss all of that year. Four years ago Miss. upset LSU on the road, despite the fact that LSU won two games before and 6 games after that game. Miss should keep it close here.
Play against teams that just won at Alabama the week before: 18-5 ATS in last 10 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 15-2 ATS if favored by 7+ (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 12-1 ATS if favored and vs revenge (Play on Miss)
Play against road favs after an overtime win, not of bye: 27-9 ATS Last 17 years (Play on Mississippi)
Play on teams revenging three straight losses of 3-pts in weeks 10+: 16-3 ATS last 20 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 8-0 ATS if underdog (covering by 15 ppg) (Mississippi)
Memphis +7.5 @ S.Mississippi
Play: Memphis +7.5
Memphis lost two starting QB this season and they stil play solid football. The reason for that has been their running game as well as their redzone efficiency on both ends of the field. This week they are in top 5 in both redzone efficiency and running game and should be able to keep this game close vs this very tired S.M. team that played four straight road games. S.M. is also playing on short rest.Three of Memphis' five losses this season have been by 7 pts or less. They have already played quite a few close games and they gained the much needed experience. They are no strangers to taugh road games either. Historically they struggled at SM but I think they have what it takes to stay within the number this year.
Play against home teams after playing 4+straight road games: 33-12 ATS L14Y. (Play on Memphis)
Same system is 28-7 ATS if off L (14-1 Last 15) (Play on Memphis)
Oklahoma +7 @ Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech-7
Here is that system again. Same system that gave us a win with Fresno over Boise a few days ago. The same system that produced a win for Texas over Oklahoma this year or a 70-10 win for Texas Tech over Nebraska last year. This system is one of the best in my database and almost always, the line for games that fit into this system look too good to be true. And it usually is. Getting 7 pts with OU against Texas Tech looks too good to be true indeed. However, I really expect TT to shot the lights out against Oklahoma this weekend. Not only because of the system but also because Texas Tech has a huge redzone edge over Oklahoma. They are one of the best Big12 teams in the redzone in every category that I keep track and it included TD, points scored out of possible pts, turnovers, and 3rd down efficiency in the redzone, both offensively and defensively. And Oklahoma is just the opposite. They are one of the worst redzone teams in the Big 12 this year. I expect a solid Texas Tech win here.
Play on 6+ favs revenging at least three straight double digit losses vs the opponent: 39-7 ATS winn by 21, covering by 15 (Play on T.Tech)
Same system is perfect last 3 years (9-0 su/ats)
System stil solid if the team was upset the previous week (Texas Tech was upset last week at OKST) 3-0 SU/ATS
System stil solid if the opponent on 3+ winning streak (See Boise last week)
Duke +24.5 @ N.Carolina
Play: Duke +24.5
I don't how much left is in the tank for UNC after this many close games they played this year. Only in last two weeks, they lost once in overtime and won one game by two points. Last week's loss was a heartbreaker and I think it will show against a relaxed and rested Duke team that has nothing to loše. Two years ago Duke came into NC and pulled a win as an underdog. This season Duke has a better redzone game both offensively and defensively, and with the extra rest, they should be able to stay withing the number in this revenge game for them. The redzone edge that they have over UNC is not huge, but it is considerable, given the spread for this game.
Play on road dogs revenging a doubke digit home loss if the opponent is comming off of a home loss in overtime: 23-4 ATS L16Y (Play on Duke)
SMU +13 @ Houston
Play on: SMU +13
Once again a dog has a solid redzone edge this week. SMU has been a better redzone team than Houston this year and with their experience, they should be able to take advantage of their bye week, vs a Houston team that plays on short rest this week. SMU was very solid, I would even say surprisingly solid on the road this season. They lost a close one, but covered the 14 pts spread at Tulsa, they went to UAB and bat them straight up as 20 pts underdogs, and they lost in OT at Marshal as double digit dogs.As for Houston, they have been a very up and down team this year. Not consistent at all. 1-3 SU after a win and actually they looked better as dogs or on the road than as favs or at home. The experienced SMU team should stay within the number.
Play on revenge teams off bye, if they won by 17+ in last game to end a 2+gms losing streak: 16-4-1 ATS L15Y (Play on SMU)
BTW, IF YOU WANT TO RECIEVE MY NFL WRITEUPS FOR THIS WEEK (FREE), E-MAIL ME AT: WSYSTEMS@HOTMAIL.COM BEFORE 12 ET ON SUNDAY !!!!!!!!!!!
Boston College -2.5 @ Maryland
Play: Boston College -2.5
B.C. was one of the best redzone edge teams last week but unfortunatelly I was not brave enough to put them on my 'play list' because of NCST road dog success in recent years. This week I'm going with BC no matter what, as they have a huge edge in the redzone over Maryland. Their redzone efficiency is especially good in last 4 games and should I mention that they did not allow a TD in the redzone in last two games. Maryland is not all that bad in the redzone offensively, but defensively they are not good at all. Also, my stats show BC as a top 10 running edge play, and they are the only small fav on my 'neutralize opponents best asset'list. Maryland's main strength this season is their offense and BC defense is more than capable of neutraling Maryland offense. Maryland already lost three home games this season, and their homefield advantage is not great at all, at least not this year. BC was very impressive until they run into the unbeaten Virginia Tech. It took them some time to recover after that loss, and they did it last week vs NCST.
Play on road teams that just ended a 2+gms losing streak with a 3+pts home fav win, against teams that snapped a 2+losing streak as road dog, with a 3-pts win: 18-2 ATS L10Y (Play on Boston College)
LSU -17 @ Ole' Miss
Play: Ole' Miss +17
No doubt in my mind that LSU is a much better team than Miss. However, in this particular matchup, and in this particular situation, I simply love Mississippi. Redzone wise, LSU is better, but not nearly enough to be favored by this many pts on the road. Actually, Miss. redzone defense is just as good as LSU's. Miss.'overall defense is just 3-6 pts worst than LSU's. Both teams played a bunch of low scoring games this season, especially lately, and I expect another defensive battle here, in which getting 17 pts could be huge. LSU is coming off of a huge OT win at Alabama and they could have a nice little letdown here. They have beaten Mississippi by three points or less three straight times. Last year, they beat them 27:24. LSU was on a 4 games win streak and Mississippi was on a 3 games losing streak (including two blowout losses) going into that contest but it didn't matter. LSU stil had troubles with Ole Miss. Two years back, the Championship LSU team beat Miss. by 3 and that was the only non cover for LSU from 18.oct to the Championship game vs Oklahoma in January of that year. Three years ago, Mississippi was on a four game losing streak when they met LSU and they lost by only 1, and that was their closest loss all of that year. Four years ago Miss. upset LSU on the road, despite the fact that LSU won two games before and 6 games after that game. Miss should keep it close here.
Play against teams that just won at Alabama the week before: 18-5 ATS in last 10 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 15-2 ATS if favored by 7+ (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 12-1 ATS if favored and vs revenge (Play on Miss)
Play against road favs after an overtime win, not of bye: 27-9 ATS Last 17 years (Play on Mississippi)
Play on teams revenging three straight losses of 3-pts in weeks 10+: 16-3 ATS last 20 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 8-0 ATS if underdog (covering by 15 ppg) (Mississippi)
Memphis +7.5 @ S.Mississippi
Play: Memphis +7.5
Memphis lost two starting QB this season and they stil play solid football. The reason for that has been their running game as well as their redzone efficiency on both ends of the field. This week they are in top 5 in both redzone efficiency and running game and should be able to keep this game close vs this very tired S.M. team that played four straight road games. S.M. is also playing on short rest.Three of Memphis' five losses this season have been by 7 pts or less. They have already played quite a few close games and they gained the much needed experience. They are no strangers to taugh road games either. Historically they struggled at SM but I think they have what it takes to stay within the number this year.
Play against home teams after playing 4+straight road games: 33-12 ATS L14Y. (Play on Memphis)
Same system is 28-7 ATS if off L (14-1 Last 15) (Play on Memphis)
Oklahoma +7 @ Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech-7
Here is that system again. Same system that gave us a win with Fresno over Boise a few days ago. The same system that produced a win for Texas over Oklahoma this year or a 70-10 win for Texas Tech over Nebraska last year. This system is one of the best in my database and almost always, the line for games that fit into this system look too good to be true. And it usually is. Getting 7 pts with OU against Texas Tech looks too good to be true indeed. However, I really expect TT to shot the lights out against Oklahoma this weekend. Not only because of the system but also because Texas Tech has a huge redzone edge over Oklahoma. They are one of the best Big12 teams in the redzone in every category that I keep track and it included TD, points scored out of possible pts, turnovers, and 3rd down efficiency in the redzone, both offensively and defensively. And Oklahoma is just the opposite. They are one of the worst redzone teams in the Big 12 this year. I expect a solid Texas Tech win here.
Play on 6+ favs revenging at least three straight double digit losses vs the opponent: 39-7 ATS winn by 21, covering by 15 (Play on T.Tech)
Same system is perfect last 3 years (9-0 su/ats)
System stil solid if the team was upset the previous week (Texas Tech was upset last week at OKST) 3-0 SU/ATS
System stil solid if the opponent on 3+ winning streak (See Boise last week)
Duke +24.5 @ N.Carolina
Play: Duke +24.5
I don't how much left is in the tank for UNC after this many close games they played this year. Only in last two weeks, they lost once in overtime and won one game by two points. Last week's loss was a heartbreaker and I think it will show against a relaxed and rested Duke team that has nothing to loše. Two years ago Duke came into NC and pulled a win as an underdog. This season Duke has a better redzone game both offensively and defensively, and with the extra rest, they should be able to stay withing the number in this revenge game for them. The redzone edge that they have over UNC is not huge, but it is considerable, given the spread for this game.
Play on road dogs revenging a doubke digit home loss if the opponent is comming off of a home loss in overtime: 23-4 ATS L16Y (Play on Duke)
SMU +13 @ Houston
Play on: SMU +13
Once again a dog has a solid redzone edge this week. SMU has been a better redzone team than Houston this year and with their experience, they should be able to take advantage of their bye week, vs a Houston team that plays on short rest this week. SMU was very solid, I would even say surprisingly solid on the road this season. They lost a close one, but covered the 14 pts spread at Tulsa, they went to UAB and bat them straight up as 20 pts underdogs, and they lost in OT at Marshal as double digit dogs.As for Houston, they have been a very up and down team this year. Not consistent at all. 1-3 SU after a win and actually they looked better as dogs or on the road than as favs or at home. The experienced SMU team should stay within the number.
Play on revenge teams off bye, if they won by 17+ in last game to end a 2+gms losing streak: 16-4-1 ATS L15Y (Play on SMU)
