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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=563 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Can the number of points scored in the previous 38 Super Bowls offer some clue as to how Super Bowl XXXIV will go on February 6 in Jacksonville? To help answer that question let's take a look at a few charts.
POINTS SCORED BY THE SUPER BOWL LOSER
NUMBER OF POINTS TOTAL OCCURRENCES
3 1
6 1
7 5
9 1
10 6
13 3
14 2
16 3
17 5
19 3
20 1
21 2
24 2
26 1
29 1
31 1
The losers of the previous 38 Super Bowls have scored a combined total of 546 points; 14.4 points/game. The median score is 15; half the time the loser has scored more than 15 points, half the time the loser has scored fewer. Even more telling: the Super Bowl loser has been held to 17 points or less 27 times in the 38 games. The lesson there is clear; teams lose the Super Bowl because they don't score.
Now, scoring in the Super Bowl has risen over the years. Six of the lowest losing team scores of all time were recorded in the first ten Super Bowls. But even without those first ten Super Bowls the mean (average) score for the losing team in the Super Bowl is only 17. Losing teams have scored 19 or fewer points 20 times in the past 28 Super Bowls with 10 (five times) and 17 (four times) being the most common scores.
Let's look then at how many points the Super Bowl winners have scored.
POINTS SCORED BY THE SUPER BOWL WINNER
NUMBER OF POINTS NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES
14 1
16 3
20 3
21 1
23 2
24 2
26 1
27 4
30 1
31 2
32 2
33 1
34 2
35 3
37 1
38 2
39 1
42 1
45 1
46 1
49 1
52 1
55 1
The 38 previous Super Bowl winners have scored a combined total of 1166 points; 30.7 points/game or an average winning margin of better than 16 points/game. The median score is 31; half the time the winner has scored more than that
number of points, half the time the winner has scored less. The winner has scored 23 or more points 30 times compared to the loser scoring 17 or less 27 times. Twenty Super Bowls have fit that profile exactly; the winner has scored 23 or more
points, the loser 17 or less.
As with the Super Bowl loser, scoring has increased for the Super Bowl winner over the years; 8 of the 10 lowest winning team point totals were recorded in the first decade of Super Bowls. Over the past 28 years the winning Super Bowl team has scored an average of 34 points. The most common point totals scored by winning teams over those 26 years are 27 (four times), 20 (three times) and 38, 35 and 34 (all with two occurrences).
Last of all, let's look at the Total Points scored in the Super Bowl by both teams.
POINTS SCORED IN THE SUPER BOWL (BOTH TEAMS)
TOTAL POINTS NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES
21 1
22 1
23 1
27 1
29 1
30 1
31 1
36 1
37 3
38 1
39 2
41 1
43 2
44 2
45 1
46 1
47 3
50 1
52 1
54 1
55 1
56 2
58 1
59 1
61 2
65 1
66 1
69 1
75 1
There have been 1730 points scored in the 38 Super Bowls to date; 45.5 points per game. The median score is 44.5; half the Super Bowls have totaled more than 44.5 points and half the Super Bowls fewer. The teams have combined for 36 or more points 31 times in the 38 games or 54 or less points 27 times.
Again, with the increase in Super Bowl scoring over the years has come a slight change in the facts and figures. Seven of the ten lowest scoring Super Bowls of all time occurred in the first decade so the average number of points scored over the past 28 years is 52.3. The median score though is only 47; half the Super Bowls in the past 20 years have had 47 or less points scored; half have had 47 or more. The most common point totals have been 47 and 37 (three occurrences each) followed by 44 and 56 with two.
So what does all this mean? It means that it may not be the team that scores the most points that wins the game but rather the team that scores the fewest that loses it. Find the team that is most likely to be held to 17 points or less and you have the likely Super Bowl loser.
There is also a tendency for the points scored by both winners and losers and for the total points scored by both teams to follow a zig-zag pattern; up one year and down the next. See for yourself. Begin with Super Bowl III and bet that the winner, the loser, and the total points scored will all be the opposite of what occurred in Super Bowl II as compared to Super Bowl I. That is, in Super Bowl II the winner (Green Bay) scored fewer points than the winner of Super Bowl I (also Green Bay). The loser scored more points and the total number of points scored was also more than in Super Bowl I. In Game Three therefore you would predict that the winner would score more points (the opposite of what happened in Game Two), the loser would score fewer points, and the total number of points would be less as well. You would have been right on two of three counts; the winner did not score more points but the loser and the total points scored were both less.
Using this method for all the Super Bowls (predicting that the winner's score, the loser's score, and the total points would be more or less than the previous Super Bowls based on what had occurred in that game) you would have been correct with the winner's prediction 26 times out of 33 trials, correct with the loser's prediction 23 times out of 32 trials, and correct on the total points prediction 25 times out of 34 trials. That is not to say that this method would have always pointed to the correct side to play nor the correct approach for the total but may have offered some indication of how a game was going to turn out.
Last year's Super Bowl went New England's way by a score of 32-29. That was a decrease in the points scored by the winner, an increase in points scored by the loser and a drop in the total number of points scored from the previous year. History says then that this year's Super Bowl should feature more points overall with more points being scored by the winner and fewer by the loser. The only way that will happen is if this year's game is a blowout.
Fifteen times in Super Bowl history the method has been correct with all three predictions; correctly predicting whether the winner would tally more or less points than the previous year's winner, the loser would tally more or less than the previous year's loser, and the total points would be more or less than the previous year's total. Three times the method has been wrong on all three counts.
As said, the method does not predict the outcome of the game only the probability of the winner's score, the loser's score, and the combined total being more or less than in the preceding year's game. The mean and median scores and most common scoring occurrences also give us some indicators, guidelines, and tighteners as well.
( i found this article on the web).....it does not belong to me.
GAME.
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POINTS SCORED BY THE SUPER BOWL LOSER
NUMBER OF POINTS TOTAL OCCURRENCES
3 1
6 1
7 5
9 1
10 6
13 3
14 2
16 3
17 5
19 3
20 1
21 2
24 2
26 1
29 1
31 1
The losers of the previous 38 Super Bowls have scored a combined total of 546 points; 14.4 points/game. The median score is 15; half the time the loser has scored more than 15 points, half the time the loser has scored fewer. Even more telling: the Super Bowl loser has been held to 17 points or less 27 times in the 38 games. The lesson there is clear; teams lose the Super Bowl because they don't score.
Now, scoring in the Super Bowl has risen over the years. Six of the lowest losing team scores of all time were recorded in the first ten Super Bowls. But even without those first ten Super Bowls the mean (average) score for the losing team in the Super Bowl is only 17. Losing teams have scored 19 or fewer points 20 times in the past 28 Super Bowls with 10 (five times) and 17 (four times) being the most common scores.
Let's look then at how many points the Super Bowl winners have scored.
POINTS SCORED BY THE SUPER BOWL WINNER
NUMBER OF POINTS NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES
14 1
16 3
20 3
21 1
23 2
24 2
26 1
27 4
30 1
31 2
32 2
33 1
34 2
35 3
37 1
38 2
39 1
42 1
45 1
46 1
49 1
52 1
55 1
The 38 previous Super Bowl winners have scored a combined total of 1166 points; 30.7 points/game or an average winning margin of better than 16 points/game. The median score is 31; half the time the winner has scored more than that
number of points, half the time the winner has scored less. The winner has scored 23 or more points 30 times compared to the loser scoring 17 or less 27 times. Twenty Super Bowls have fit that profile exactly; the winner has scored 23 or more
points, the loser 17 or less.
As with the Super Bowl loser, scoring has increased for the Super Bowl winner over the years; 8 of the 10 lowest winning team point totals were recorded in the first decade of Super Bowls. Over the past 28 years the winning Super Bowl team has scored an average of 34 points. The most common point totals scored by winning teams over those 26 years are 27 (four times), 20 (three times) and 38, 35 and 34 (all with two occurrences).
Last of all, let's look at the Total Points scored in the Super Bowl by both teams.
POINTS SCORED IN THE SUPER BOWL (BOTH TEAMS)
TOTAL POINTS NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES
21 1
22 1
23 1
27 1
29 1
30 1
31 1
36 1
37 3
38 1
39 2
41 1
43 2
44 2
45 1
46 1
47 3
50 1
52 1
54 1
55 1
56 2
58 1
59 1
61 2
65 1
66 1
69 1
75 1
There have been 1730 points scored in the 38 Super Bowls to date; 45.5 points per game. The median score is 44.5; half the Super Bowls have totaled more than 44.5 points and half the Super Bowls fewer. The teams have combined for 36 or more points 31 times in the 38 games or 54 or less points 27 times.
Again, with the increase in Super Bowl scoring over the years has come a slight change in the facts and figures. Seven of the ten lowest scoring Super Bowls of all time occurred in the first decade so the average number of points scored over the past 28 years is 52.3. The median score though is only 47; half the Super Bowls in the past 20 years have had 47 or less points scored; half have had 47 or more. The most common point totals have been 47 and 37 (three occurrences each) followed by 44 and 56 with two.
So what does all this mean? It means that it may not be the team that scores the most points that wins the game but rather the team that scores the fewest that loses it. Find the team that is most likely to be held to 17 points or less and you have the likely Super Bowl loser.
There is also a tendency for the points scored by both winners and losers and for the total points scored by both teams to follow a zig-zag pattern; up one year and down the next. See for yourself. Begin with Super Bowl III and bet that the winner, the loser, and the total points scored will all be the opposite of what occurred in Super Bowl II as compared to Super Bowl I. That is, in Super Bowl II the winner (Green Bay) scored fewer points than the winner of Super Bowl I (also Green Bay). The loser scored more points and the total number of points scored was also more than in Super Bowl I. In Game Three therefore you would predict that the winner would score more points (the opposite of what happened in Game Two), the loser would score fewer points, and the total number of points would be less as well. You would have been right on two of three counts; the winner did not score more points but the loser and the total points scored were both less.
Using this method for all the Super Bowls (predicting that the winner's score, the loser's score, and the total points would be more or less than the previous Super Bowls based on what had occurred in that game) you would have been correct with the winner's prediction 26 times out of 33 trials, correct with the loser's prediction 23 times out of 32 trials, and correct on the total points prediction 25 times out of 34 trials. That is not to say that this method would have always pointed to the correct side to play nor the correct approach for the total but may have offered some indication of how a game was going to turn out.
Last year's Super Bowl went New England's way by a score of 32-29. That was a decrease in the points scored by the winner, an increase in points scored by the loser and a drop in the total number of points scored from the previous year. History says then that this year's Super Bowl should feature more points overall with more points being scored by the winner and fewer by the loser. The only way that will happen is if this year's game is a blowout.
Fifteen times in Super Bowl history the method has been correct with all three predictions; correctly predicting whether the winner would tally more or less points than the previous year's winner, the loser would tally more or less than the previous year's loser, and the total points would be more or less than the previous year's total. Three times the method has been wrong on all three counts.
As said, the method does not predict the outcome of the game only the probability of the winner's score, the loser's score, and the combined total being more or less than in the preceding year's game. The mean and median scores and most common scoring occurrences also give us some indicators, guidelines, and tighteners as well.
( i found this article on the web).....it does not belong to me.
GAME.
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