Buffett what is your thoughts about Arizona +114 (the price i bought them at)?
Also i don't think Hanson numbers are sustainable, although he pitched great against Washington and got the benefit of the calls, painting the corners. He still walks a lot and gets in deep counts. Now he pitching at Coors against a lineup who hit hard, could be dangerous. I haven't pay attention to Cook, so i won't know if this is a good enough price.
Also i don't think Hanson numbers are sustainable, although he pitched great against Washington and got the benefit of the calls, painting the corners. He still walks a lot and gets in deep counts. Now he pitching at Coors against a lineup who hit hard, could be dangerous. I haven't pay attention to Cook, so i won't know if this is a good enough price.
He has been overvalued for a while now. Oddsmakers fail to realize he is backed by a sub par lineup, and the strength of their bullpen should not be fully quanitified in his starts due to his ability to eat up innings, thus avoiding a "double counting" effect.
His next start is against Boston. Books may be more hesistant to overprice him in that spot, but market participants have shown no problem betting against him at inflated price tags.
I got in at the exact same price last night. I think we are going to crush the closing number here. I will be looking to buy back some of my position by getting the Marlins at plus money heading into the close. Petit, much like Liriano, Price, and Parra has a lot of "blow up" risk, but oddsmakers seem to be over quantifying this risk with their opening bid. The market is making it clear today they are willing to buy into out of favor pitchers and good prices.
I agree with you that Hansons current performance is not sustainable, and I have a bearish valuation on him. He simply is not fooling people at the big league level like he did in the minors. Sooner or later, the increased rate of balls hit in play (decrease in strikeout rate) will catch up to his numbers. His Well Hit Ratio is not commensurate to his BABIP number which is a sign his current pitching performance is as much of a sign of good luck as it is good pitching. That said, I think the market is not being fooled here, and the line seems efficient.
Put a play on the Dodgers:
Lineup loaded vs Hernandez:
Wolf 667
Ramirez 625
Loney 364
Furcal 333
Ethier 375
Blake 400
Kemp 500
Wolf has held the Mets around 250 batting average against.
11-5 vs Mets and I'm going to buy him at his peak. Broxton available for more than 1 inning and 4 out 5 last starts have been QS. 12 to 1 SO to BB ratio. I think the offense will carry them tonight and they get the series victory.
Lineup loaded vs Hernandez:
Wolf 667
Ramirez 625
Loney 364
Furcal 333
Ethier 375
Blake 400
Kemp 500
Wolf has held the Mets around 250 batting average against.
11-5 vs Mets and I'm going to buy him at his peak. Broxton available for more than 1 inning and 4 out 5 last starts have been QS. 12 to 1 SO to BB ratio. I think the offense will carry them tonight and they get the series victory.
I didnt play the game, but interesting line move nonetheless. The game is not over, but your Dodgers are sitting pretty.
Gernerally speaking, 10 minutes before the close is a more efficient market than 1 minute before the close. But when you see line moves as material as this one in the last ten minutes, the market is usually telling you more than just irrational noise.
Just sold off my entire position I had on the DBacks at +114 buy buying the Marlins at +105, locking in a nice gain. The line stayed put after lineup dissemination, but my fair value dropped on the Dbacks by 8 cents. That coupled with the anticpated partial buyback, and now I am fully hedged out.
Gutierrez 2 out three run shot. 
