An early look at this weekend's Premiership

[quantumleap]

I have to continue to bring up the topic of taking the over for Arsenal. This time the odds are looking better.

Arsenal/Fulham over 2.5 and 3.0 -107
Arsenal has averaged 4 goals scored per match this year while their opponents are averaging 1.25 goals per match. This week's opponent is Fulham who has scored an average of 1.5 goals compared to their opponents at 1.75 goals per match. I can't see how the total can be under 3 for an Arsenal match.

Now on to some other matches that have caught my eye. Those being with teams that are struggling to score.

Bolton +0.5 over Man Utd. -108
I took Everton at plus odds against Man Utd. last match and the score ended in a 0-0 tie. Man Utd. has only scored a total of 3 goals in 4 matches. Their opponent this weekend is front-contender Bolton. I look for Bolton to do well at home against Man Utd.

West Brom +1.0 and +1.5 +102 over Liverpool
Another good team that has been having problems scoring is Liverpool. Liverpool has also only scored 3 goals except they've only played 3 matches this year. Their opponent this weekend is West Brom. While West Brom is definitely outmatched in Liverpool, the +1.0 and +1.5 goals could be enough to win here. I think West Brom has a chance due to Liverpool's trouble scoring.

Middlesbrough -0.5 -102 over Birmingham
One last match that caught my eye is Middlesbrough-Birmingham. Birmingham is the league's lowest-scoring team since they have only scored 2 goals in 4 matches. Middlesbrough, on the other hand, is the league's second-highest scoring team. I think Middlesbrough will be able to score while holding Birmingham to few goals so I will take the -0.5 -102.

Comments are more than welcome as I am a novice with this league. Granted, some of my observations are based upon scoring only, yet I feel I have some semi-valid points here.

 

[soccerbob]

quantum- That total on the Arsenal- Fulham match looks like a solid over. Fulham will open it up at home and they have some weapons on offense to give that shakey Arsenal defense some trouble. There isn't much that can be said about Arsenal's offense. How do you stop them? Another total I'll be looking at is next week's Champion's League match when Arsenal hosts PSV Eindhoven. How high can they make that total? That match may look like a track meet.

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks soccerbob. I'll take a look at the Champion's League match as well.

I still don't know why the total for this weekend's match with Fulham is at 2.5/3.0 when previous week's totals were at 3.0.

Good luck.

 

[deutscher]

quantum - I think a partial answer to your last question is the fact that in the previous 2 seasons, this match ended up 0-1 to Arsenal both times. This is a London derby, another thing to take into consideration.

 

[quantumleap]

deutscher:

I had noticed that when looking at the matchups but dismissed it as being too far in the past. Now that you mention it though, I can see that these 2 teams match up rather well and your point is relevant. I guess when looking for some things we often turn a blind eye to the things that don't fit our theory. It helps to have someone else bring that up.

When these 2 teams met last May and last November, were they similar teams? I've noticed that Arsenal is scoring more goals than last season.

 

[GreenDoberman]

be wary of backing team's the game before they play a CL match. They very well could be resting a few players for the more "important" Champions League match.

 

[deutscher]

GreenDoberman makes a very valid point - my team, VfB Stuttgart, last season played quite a few 0-0 and 1-0 matches before and after their Champions League ties - why, I don't know, but that's the way it played out.

On paper, the two teams are not greatly changed. Tough call here - good luck to you.

 

[quantumleap]

Results-

Arsenal 3, Fulham 0 [1/2 win, 1/2 tie]

Bolton 2, Man U. 2 [win]

Liverpool 3, West Brom 0 [loss]

Middlesbrough 2, Birmingham 1 [win]

Tally: 2 1/2 wins, 1 loss, 1/2 tie

 

[miamiman]

some good calls here well done

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks miamiman.

I've come to notice that people in this forum don't post the results of their bets. I think I'll refrain from doing so in the future to follow forum protocol.

Tottenham/Norwich under 2.5 -110
Tottenham has scored 1 goal in each match they've played in this year. They have also not allowed more than 1 goal in a match. Norwich, on the other hand, has scored 5 goals in 4 matches so we have 2 low-scoring teams here. My only concern is that Tottenham, the much better team, will find a way to score against Norwich's defense which gave up 4 goals to Arsenal.

 

[quantumleap]

Charlton/Southampton over 2.5 +107
Charlton has done horridly at times, losing 4-0 to Man City and 4-1 to Bolton. Southampton is the only team in this contest to have played a match that resulted in less than 3 goals being scored, and that was only once. I'm hoping Charlton's defensive woes will continue and the teams can combine for 3 or more goals in this match.

 

[JackDee]

"I've come to notice that people in this forum don't post the results of their bets. I think I'll refrain from doing so in the future to follow forum protocol."

some do, i do for instance, so by all means if you wish to, do not refrain from posting them

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks for the input Jack. I think I will include my record here then.

Tottenham/Norwich under 2.5 -110
Result: 0-0

Charlton/Southampton over 2.5 +107
Result: 0-0

Final tally for the week: +1.25 units