AN EARLY LOOK AT THE BREEDERS CUP

[EarlySpeed]

The last four runnings of the Breeders Cup in California has been brutal to the east shippers and Euro invaders.
Home court advantage will once again be prevalent but with the aid of my shiny new Crushing the Cup 2003 which they give away gratis at the OJC-(what a swell bunch of reptiles)-there are some Euros and East Coasters who may make some noise.
The key--according to the authors of this little tome--is to concede home court advantage unless you come across a Road Warrior which is defined below--i think....
The tools being used to arrive at the contenders are

1) 4-6 factors to get your basic contenders

2) an index to further fine tune them (the Crushing Index )

3) very careful attention to the Road Warrior

Here are the 8 races in order--i am now going for several ales and a pork pie
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 2 - Post Time 10:20
Breeders' Cup Distaff Presented by Nextel – Purse $2,000,000
1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) - For fillies and mares 3 years old and up

HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003

#3 No wins at the distance

#4 Layoff 35+ days

#5 Less than 5 races leading up to this race in 2003
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Adoration #1 #2 #3 #5

Azeri

Buy The Sport

Elloluv #3

Got Koko

Lady Tak #3 #4

Sightseek

Take Charge Lady



The Crushing Index for this race is Par 107(103 for 3 year olds) plus # of wins plus beyers over 100

Adoration *2*

Azeri *9*

Buy The Sport *2*

Elloluv *7*

Got Koko *7*

Lady Tak *6*

Sightseek *16*

The Road Warriors in this race are Got Koko and Azeri

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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 3 - Post Time 10:55
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies – Purse $1,000,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2 year old fillies

HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 No stakes wins

#3 No less than 3 and no more than 6 races

#4 Layoff of 30+ days
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Ashado

Be Gentle

Class Above #3 #4

Dixie High #4

Forest Music #2 #3

Halfbridled

Hollywood Story #2

Renaissance Lady #1 #2 #3

Shadow of Mine #1 #2

Society Selection #3

Tarlow #2 #3

Victory U.S.A #2

Vino Tinto #3

Zosima

My goodness--10 of them knocked out

The Crushing Index =overall wins +95+beyers+90+route beyers+3 points for sprint to route beyer improvement
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Ashado *6*

Be Gentle *3*

Class Above *5*

Dixie High *3*

Forest Music *2*

Halfbridled *6*

Hollywood Story *3*

Renaissance Lady *1*

Shadow of Mine *4*

Society Selection *7*

Tarlow *6*

Victory U.S.A. *6*

Vino Tinto *2*

Zosima *6*

Historically a CI of 5 has won 9 out of the last 12 leaving us with 3 contenders factoring in the knock eliminations.

There are no Road Warriors in this group.
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 4 - Post Time 11:35
Netjets Breeders' Cup Mile – Purse $1,500,000
1 mile on Turf (8 furlongs) – 3 year olds and up

HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are six factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and stakes win for domestics in 2003

#3 No win at the distance in 2003

#4 Three year olds must have been competitive to elders

#5 A Beyer top is an automatic toss

#6 Never run to par-(this race is 109)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Century City-#3 #5 #6

Decarchy #2 #3 #6

Designed for Luck #5 #6

Freefourinternet #5 #6

Irish Warrior #3 #6

Oasis Dream #3 #5 (time form adjusted--just topped)

Peace Rules #3

Perfect Soul #5 #6

Refuse To Bend #1

Sarafan

Six Perfections #5

Soaring Free #6

Special Ring #3

Touch of the Blues #6

Important note--subtract 13 points from the Timeform rating
on a European runner to get a Beyer equivalent.

SARAFAN IS THE ONLY NAG TO FLY UNDER THE RADAR AND SURVIVE THE
AXE. MIGHT BE A HALF DECENT PRICE.
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 5 - Post Time 12:10
Breeders' Cup Sprint – Purse $1,000,000
6 furlongs – 3 year olds and up

HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 Less than 4 preps leading up to this race

#3 No wins at the distance

#4 No stakes wins (any stakes)

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Aldebaran #3

Bluesthestandard

Cajun Beat

Captain Squire

Ethan Man #2

Midas Eyes #2 #3

Posse

Private Horde

Shake You Down

Valid Video

Yanke Gentleman #2

Zavata

Looks like we got rid of the chalk and a couple of dogs.

On to the Crushing Index

Aldebaran *13*

Bluesthestandard *11*

Cajun Beat *6*

Captain Squire *5*

Ethan Man *2*

Midas Eyes *3*

Posse *7*

Private Horde *13*

Shake You Down *17*

Valid Video *8*

Yanke Gentleman *5*

Zavata *5*

The Road Warriors are Aldebaran/Posse/Private Horde/Valid Video
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 6 - Post Time 12:34
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Purse $1,000,000
1¼ miles on Turf (10 furlongs) – Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up


HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 No stakes win for Euros 2 knocks but no G1 no knocks- for US 1 knock no g1 2 knocks no stakes win

#3 Has never finished within 4 lengths of winner at this distance

#4 Not laid off for more than 45 days
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Bien Nicole #2

Bright Sky

Dessert #4

Dimitrova

Heat Haze

Islington #4

L'Ancresse

Megahertz #4

Mezzo Soprano

Musical Chimes

Riskaverse

Tates Creek

Voodoo Dancer #4

Yesterday

NOT TOO MANY KNOCKS--MAYBE THE CRUSH INDEX CAN PAINT A BETTER PICTURE

For this race the par is 103
CI is 2003 wins/beyers +100(2003)/Beyers+103(2003)

Bien Nicole *6*

Bright Sky *9*

Dessert *3*

Dimitrova *6*

Heat Haze *8*

Islington *9*

L'Ancresse *2*

Megahertz *7*

Mezzo Soprano *5*

Musical Chimes *5*

Riskaverse *6*

Tates Creek *11*

Voodoo Dancer *6*

Yesterday *8*

Seems we have a competitive race here.

Time to scan for a Road warrior. Bien Nicole is the only shipper that qualifies. Tates Creek is the home horse who has won at every SoCal track. These two look interesting.
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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 7 - Post Time 1:20
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile – Purse $1,500,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2-year-old colts and geldings


HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are four factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 No stakes wins

#3 No less than 2 and no more than 7 races

#4 Layoff of 30+ days
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Action This Day #2

Cactus Ridge

Capitano #2

Chapel Royal

Consecrate #1 #2

Cuvee #4

Grand Reward #2

Minister Eric #2 #4

Old Deuteronomy #2

Race For Glory

Relaxed Gesture #2

Siphonizer #1

Thats an Outrage #2

Tiger Hunt

Mambo Train #1 #2
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Was that the chalk we just threw out there??

The Crushing Index is overall wins plus 96+ Beyers plus 90+ route Beyers plus 3 points for Sprint to Route Adjustment

Action This Day *1*

Cactus Ridge *10*

Capitano *1*

Chapel Royal *9*

Consecrate *1*

Cuvee *7*

Grand Reward *4*

Minister Eric *1*

Old Deuteronomy *1*

Race For Glory *3*

Relaxed Gesture *6*

Siphonizer *2*

Thats an Outrage *1*

Tiger Hunt *3*

Mambo Train *1*
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Historically anything less than 3 is a toss-ofer last 10 runnings

Cuvee may be a tad vulnerable--especially with 2 Road Warriors with better CIs-Cactus Ridge and Chapel Royale.

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Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 8 - Post Time 1:55
John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf – Purse $2,000,000
1 1/2 miles (12 furlongs) - For 3 year olds and up

HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner) Also consider any horse coming from the Arc de Triomphe

#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003

#3 No wins at the distance

#4 Six year olds and up have gone 0/22

#5 Layoff of 35+ days
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Balto Star #3

Bright Sky #2 #3

Deeliteful Irving #2

Falbrav

High Chaparral

Johar #2 #3

Storming Home

Sulamani

The Tin Man #5

Three Europeans and the hometown horse remain unscathed from the dreaded knocks!

The Crush Index for this race is Wins for year + #105 Beyers + #Beyers over par(110)

Balto Star *3*

Bright Sky *4*

Deeliteful Irving *2*

Falbrav *14*

High Chaparral *8*

Johar *2*

Storming Home *6*

Sulamani *10*

The Tin Man *4*

In the last 10 runnings of the Turf the CI has been 12/13/10/11/10/11/13/3/8/13

This points heavily to the 3 European horses.

Is there a Road Warrior in the house?

The lone qualifier is Falbrav.

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HANDICAPPING BY PROCESS OF ELIMINATION-Here are five factors used in Crushing
the Cup 2003. They are referred to as "knocks". The more knocks, the more
you should look elsewhere!

#1 Last race was NOT sharp (in the money or within 4 lengths of winner)

#2 No Group 1 win for Euros and Grade 1 win for domestics in 2003

#3 Six year olds and up have gone 0/15

#4 Layoff of 35+ days must be accompanied by a bullet AND stamina work(longer than 5f)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Congaree

Dynever

Evening Attire #2

Falbrav

Funny Cide

Hold that Tiger #2 #4

Medaglia d'Oro #4

Perfect Drift

Pleasantly Perfect #2

Ten Most Wanted

Toccet #1 #2

Volponi #1 #2

Well-that trims the herd somewhat. Lets look at the "Crushing" index. It seems that a minimum of *8* is required to be competitive judging by past runnings.

Congaree *15*

Dynever *6*

Evening Attire *7*

Falbrav *14*

Funny Cide *7*

Hold that Tiger *2*

Medaglia d'Oro *9*

Perfect Drift *12*

Pleasantly Perfect *4*

Ten Most Wanted *8*

Toccet *2*

Volponi *6*

The CI does little to separate any further.

The Road Warriors are Congaree/ Falbrav/ Perfect Drift and Ten Most Wanted.
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THE ROAD WARRIOR

In the last four runnings in California shippers and Euros have not fared well. The ones that have displayed this profile--

1-Victories at four different tracks during the year. For 2 year olds 3 wins.

2-French based horses must also show a win in England or Ireland. English and Irish based horses must show a win in France or on the continent,

3-Cal-based horses need a win at each S. Cal track.

IF YOU HAVE READ THIS FAR YOU ARE A TOTAL DEGENERATE GAMBLER LIKE ME--GOOD LUCK

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

 

[HENHOUSEx2]

Let's hope it isn't like your derby play last year

HAHAHHAHAHHAA

HH

 

[EarlySpeed]

Hen--so nice of you to drop in

Sorry bout the Bosox--remember what you said??
---------------------------------------------
GO REDSOXNATION.....WE BELIEVE!!
---------------------------------------------

Better luck next year Hen.

who do you like in the World Series?--you are a fvcking gold mine!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[EarlySpeed]

Time to add red sox loser fan to your ever growing profile of the most hapless poster alive

new profile

red sox loser fan

old profile

scat lover
idiot
butcherer of the English language
liar
<golf expert>
liar--"I am not Newport"--oh did I say that??
pond scum
lint
<eoe>

 

[HENHOUSEx2]

Come on please...enough of the JOEHENPORT BS..it makes no sense...though what post of yours does...I mean when you really look at it...

But seriously, wise up.....

And I see you had another horrible weekend in plays.....what was it....1-7 this time..

Outstanding...well done.....

Say hi to your other IDs that have run off...

Classic

HH

 

[EarlySpeed]

Hen--would you be so kind as to direct me where I posted ANY plays?

I know that you are a confused lying sack of malodorous rat feces but I cannot recall playing any sports this weekend.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Early Speed,Great post.Have no isdea why it is in RR.Don't know if I am gonna have the time to chart the races or not.For me the BC is much more difficult to chart than the derby.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Early,don't know if you have access to thourograph #'s but would love to see them.

 

[EarlySpeed]

Judge

Nope--no Rags or Thorographs for me.

But they must be worth it at $25 bucks a pop.

I think I may go to the site and see if they are dropping any hints.

btw--posted this in offshore and the horse section. Bump it in offshore for me so we can get some feedback

 

[JudgeWapner]

Done deal.

 

[EarlySpeed]

BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF

1 Take Charge Lady E. Prado Kenneth G. McPeek 8-1
2 Adoration P. Valenzuala David Hofmans 20-1
3 Lady Tak P. Day Steven M. Asmussen 12-1
4 Buy the Sport J. Velazquez Robert Barbara 20-1
5 Sightseek J. Bailey Robert J. Frankel 6-5
6 Elloluv C. Nakatani Craig Dollase 9-2
7 Got Koko A. Solis Bruce Headley 2-1

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES FIELD
Total Purse: $1 million; 1 1/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Dixie High V. Espinoza Adam Kitchingman 30-1
2 Shadow of Mine J. Valdivia C. Beau Greely 50-1
3 Hollywood Story P. Valenzuela John A. Shirreffs 15-1
4 Forest Music E. Prado Mark Shuman 12-1
5 Ashado J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 20-1
6 Society Selection R. Ganpath H. Allen Jerkens 8-1
7 Class Above D. Flores Bob Baffert 7-2
8 Victory U. S. A. J. Bailey Bob Baffert 10-1
9 Renaissance Lady T. Baze D. Wayne Lukas 30-1
10 Vino Tinto R. Fogelsonger Nicholas J. Hines 50-1
11 Zosima P. Day Eoin G. Harty 15-1
12 Tarlow M. Smith John A. Shirreffs 15-1
13 Be Gentle C. Velazquez D. Wayne Lukas 20-1
14 Halfbridled J. Krone Richard E. Mandella 7-5

BREEDERS' CUP MILE FIELD
Total Purse: $1,500,000; 1 mile
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Peace Rules E. Prado Robert J. Frankel 6-1
2 Sarafan V. Espinoza Neil D. Drysdale 10-1
3 Designed for Luck P. Valenzuela Vladimir Cerin 6-1
4 Soaring Free J. Velasquez Mark R. Frostad 20-1
5 Refuse To Bend (IRE) P. Smullen Dermot K. Weld 15-1
6 Special Ring D. Flores Julio C. Canani 4-1
7 Freefourinternet J. Espinoza Joan Scott 30-1
8 Century City (IRE) J. Valdivia C. Beau Greely 20-1
9 Touch of the Blues (FR) K. Desormeaux Neil D. Drysdale 20-1
10 Oasis Dream (GB) R. Hughes John H.M. Gosden 5-1
11 Irish Warrior A. Solis Wallace Dollase 20-1
12 Decarchy M. Smith Doug O'Neill 20-1
13 Six Perfections (FR) J. Bailey Pascal F. Bary 6-1
14 Perfect Soul (IRE) J. Santos Roger L. Attfield 15-1

BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT FIELD
Total Purse: $1,180,000; 6 furlongs
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Zavata G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 15-1
2 Shake You Down M. Luzzi Scott A. Lake 4-1
3 Posse P. Day Steven M. Asmussen 15-1
4 Valid Video E. Prado Dennis J. Manning 8-1
5 Midas Eyes J. Velazquez Robert J. Frankel 10-1
6 Aldebaran J. Bailey Robert J. Frankel 3-1
7 Ethan Man R. Douglas Patrick B. Byrne 20-1
8 Bluesthestandard M. Smith Ted H. West 12-1
9 Private Horde J. Lumpkins Joe Cain 20-1
10 Great Notion T. Baze Darrin Miller 20-1
11 Cajun Beat C. Velasquez Stephen R. Margolis 20-1
12 Yankee Gentleman P. Valenzuela John A. Shirreffs 6-1
13 Captain Squire A. Solis Jeff Mullins 10-1

BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF FIELD
Total Purse: $1,060,000 ; 1 1/4 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Tates Creek P. Valenzuala Robert J. Frankel 6-1
2 Yesterday (IRE) M. Kinane Aidan P. O'Brien 12-1
3 Heat Haze (GB) J. Bailey Robert J. Frankel 6-1
4 Islington (IRE) K. Fallon Sir Michael R. Stoute 3-1
5 Mezzo Soprano F. Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 8-1
6 Musical Chimes G. Stevens Andre Fabre 4-1
7 Voodoo Dancer C. Nakatani Christophe Clement 10-1
8 Riskaverse J. Velasquez Patrick J. Kelly 30-1
9 Megahertz (GB) A. Solis Robert J. Frankel 12-1
10 Dimitrova P. Smullen Dermot K. Weld 12-1
11 L'Ancresse (IRE) E. Prado Aidan P. O'Brien 50-1
12 Bien Nicole D. Pettinger Donnie K. Von Hemel 12-1

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FIELD
Total Purse: $1,500,000; 1 1/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Race for Glory C. Velasquez D. Wayne Lukas 6-1
2 Action This Day D. Flores Richard E. Mandella 20-1
3 That's an Outrage V. Espinoza Michael Puhich 30-1
4 Consecrate P. Valenzuela Bob Baffert 15-1
5 Mambo Train E. Prado Marcelo Polanco 50-1
6 Tiger Hunt P. Day W. Elliott Walden 5-1
7 Minister Eric A. Solis Richard E. Mandella 8-1
8 Siphonizer J. Krone Richard E. Mandella 12-1
9 Capitano J. Valdivia Thomas Ray Bell, II 12-1
10 Chapel Royal J. Velasquez Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
11 Relaxed Gesture (IRE) P. Smullen Dermot K. Weld 20-1
12 Cuvee J. Bailey Steven M. Asmussen 8-5

BREEDERS' CUP TURF FIELD
Total Purse: $2,120,000; 1 1/2 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Toccet R. Baze John F. Scanlan 30-1
2 Bright Sky (IRE) D. Boeuf Elie Lellouche 15-1
3 High Chaparral (IRE) M. Kinane Aidan P. O'Brien 7-2
4 Sulamani (IRE) F. Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 7-2
5 Storming Home (GB) G. Stevens Neil D. Drysdale 5-2
6 Balto Star J. Velasquez Todd A. Pletcher 20-1
7 The Tin Man M. Smith Richard E. Mandella 15-1
8 Falbrav (IRE) D. Holland Luca M. Cumani 3-1
9 Johar A. Solis Richard E. Mandella 8-1

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC FIELD
Total Purse: $4 million; 1 1/4 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Evening Attire J. Velazquez Patrick J. Kelly 15-1
2 Pleasantly Perfect A. Solis Richard E. Mandella 10-1
3 Volponi J. Santos Phillip G. Johnson 15-1
4 Funny Cide J. Krone Barclay Tagg 8-1
5 Hold That Tiger E. Prado Aidan P. O'Brien 12-1
6 Dynever C. Nakatani Christophe Clement 15-1
7 Perfect Drift G. Stevens Murray W. Johnson 7-2
8 Medaglia d'Oro J. Bailey Robert J. Frankel 3-1
9 Congaree P. Velenzuela Bob Baffert 6-1
10 Ten Most Wanted P. Day Wallace Dollase 4-1