Patrick Everson
@PatrickE_Vegas
·
53m
"49ers by 1 is our worst outcome. We're rooting for the 49ers to cover. Nothing but Chiefs money the last two weeks."
Do you know how many SBs Vegas lost on? When Brady was in last few SBs, can’t tell me the team wasn’t the public bet….They don’t give a shit! Not like they haven’t raked it in during the season. And NFL platform is nothing in comparison to gaming in casinos. The NFL makes way more on the ratings and and commercials. Just last yr they made over $600 mil on commercials during the superbowl.
Again vegas has won 37 of 39 and thats where i always like to be -However with all the new players and sharpies the lines have appeared to be off kelter and is getting harder to go against the Flow so to speak -most consensus have it kc and over but again its hard to say exactly come near gametime -tons of new betterrs and more states taking action - 90% of these new players are on the Swift props with kelce n company according to eversons interviews -mgm said despite sf big bets n futures they would sf to cover and under to hold down kc moneyline and kelce props -also tame down mccafery props -yet only 52% so far on over -ill update what i see if n when it comes
Here's a quick way to figure it.
1) So-called "sharp money" is less concerned with the better team or the "right side" (there is no such thing), than with obtaining value. Value is best defined as the difference between what their line says the game should be and what the actual betting line is.
2) Because they are more concerned with value, they prefer underdogs, as well as specific key numbers, primarily 3 and 7.
3) Seeing the line open at San Francisco -1' means nothing to us, especially with two weeks to go before kickoff. No sharp is going to take Kansas City +1', except on a teaser. They'll wait and see if they can get 3. Nor will they lay -1', when the line might move to PK.
So when the line moves to San Francisco -2, that's your tell that public money is on San Francisco.
4) By the middle of this week it became clear that the line isn't moving past 2, so that's when the "sharp money" bought into it, in some cases buying a point up to +3. Thus, we see the line adjusting back to -1'.
5) Any sharp money holding out for PK will come in late, like today, so you might see another slight adjustment to the line.
Having said all that, I think it's a much better use of one's time to rely on their own handicapping and not pay so much attention to where the "sharp" or public money is going.
I'm on KC myself, along with some props.
