Hitman, American Wedding will probably do that much on Friday alone. Here are my preliminary predictions, with analysis, for what it's worth. I've been stone cold lately, but, I will trudge on. One of the first things you learn when you start doing this for a living is to NOT change the way you handicapp because you are cold. Things tend to even out.
American Wedding, assuming 3200 theaters, $40mil.
I'm going with about a $12,500 PTA on this one, which is smack dab between the first and second installment in this series. This year in films has skewed heavily towards the more lighthearted stuff that hollywood puts out there (Bruce Almighty, Finding Nemo, Pirates, etc.). This should be no different. Alot of people are looking to get away and laugh out loud, and, this film will probably deliver on that level. I see this film doing no lower than $32mil, with a potential top end of as high as $47mil, assuming 3200 theaters. I'm going right around $40mil for my prediction.
Gigli, assuming 2200 theaters, $15.5mil.
Using some recent, reasonably comparable flicks, involving these lovebirds, I am going to use a middle ground of about $7000 in terms of PTA.
Sum of all fears, 9795
The Cell, 7819
Enough, 6562
Wedding Planner, 4979
Out of Sight, 7058
Maid in Manhattan, 6593
Forces of Nature, 6565
But, there are other variables at play here which will make this one slightly more difficult to predict. First is the fact that this is really an "adult" comedy, and, as such, will probably not compete directly with American Wedding, but, it will compete directly with Seabiscuit in only it's second weekend. In addition, there will probably be a unique curiosity on the part of the public which will drive them to the theaters to see these two in action together. For right now, I'm thinking that a $7000 per theater average is conservative. Assuming a 2200 theater opening, the film could do as poorly as $10mil or as well as $20mil.
Any thoughts?
JP
American Wedding, assuming 3200 theaters, $40mil.
I'm going with about a $12,500 PTA on this one, which is smack dab between the first and second installment in this series. This year in films has skewed heavily towards the more lighthearted stuff that hollywood puts out there (Bruce Almighty, Finding Nemo, Pirates, etc.). This should be no different. Alot of people are looking to get away and laugh out loud, and, this film will probably deliver on that level. I see this film doing no lower than $32mil, with a potential top end of as high as $47mil, assuming 3200 theaters. I'm going right around $40mil for my prediction.
Gigli, assuming 2200 theaters, $15.5mil.
Using some recent, reasonably comparable flicks, involving these lovebirds, I am going to use a middle ground of about $7000 in terms of PTA.
Sum of all fears, 9795
The Cell, 7819
Enough, 6562
Wedding Planner, 4979
Out of Sight, 7058
Maid in Manhattan, 6593
Forces of Nature, 6565
But, there are other variables at play here which will make this one slightly more difficult to predict. First is the fact that this is really an "adult" comedy, and, as such, will probably not compete directly with American Wedding, but, it will compete directly with Seabiscuit in only it's second weekend. In addition, there will probably be a unique curiosity on the part of the public which will drive them to the theaters to see these two in action together. For right now, I'm thinking that a $7000 per theater average is conservative. Assuming a 2200 theater opening, the film could do as poorly as $10mil or as well as $20mil.
Any thoughts?
JP
Good points Jcam! I don't feel strong in my opinion on Wedding, but I'm gonna stick with it. I'm more of a feeling capper, and you are more of a cold hard facts & figures type (which is the best way to be in the long run). I don't bet anymore because I have a disease.
Goodluck
Hitman
Goodluck
Hitman
