New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay UNDER 32½
Tampa Bay -2 over New York Jets
The 2003 NFL preseason officially kicks off Saturday when the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers tangle with the New York Jets at the 18th American Bowl in Tokyo, Japan.
Tampa is fresh off the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl title after a 48-21 shellacking of the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. Head coach Jon Gruden has given his club plenty of motivation in its run for a second consecutive title, as he has promised to dance down the road in only a jockstrap if the team repeats. Actually, it could be argued that would provide the team with motivation to NOT win. Seriously, we do not expect much in the way of a let up from "Chucky" and his Bucs.
The Jets recovered from an ugly 1-4 start in 2002 to secure an AFC East title with wins in eight of their final 11 contests. Upstart quarterback Chad Pennington led the Jets to a Wild Card game blowout of the Indianapolis Colts, but the team's run ended against Oakland in the second round of the playoffs.
We expect little offense in this contest for a variety of reasons. Both teams figure to concentrate on their running games. The Buccaneers beat the odds in 2002, capturing a Super Bowl title with a rushing attack that statistically ranked 27th in the league, didn't have a 1,000-yard rusher, and featured a committee approach at the tailback position. Tampa failed to reach 75 rushing yards in nine games, and had just one individual 100-yard performance during the regular season. The lack of a viable go-to back often meant the Bucs went nowhere fast on the ground, a frustrating circumstance for coach Jon Gruden, who covets a power running game more than most people realize.
With Tampa Bay's starting tailback facing possible suspension or jail stemming from two felony assault charges for domestic violence, the Bucs will use the preseason as an open audition for Michael Pittman's job. Gruden said Aaron Stecker is the front-runner to win a spot at this point, because of his experience last season. Newcomers Thomas Jones and Terry Kirby also will get a serious look. FB Mike Alstott is also a backfield mainstay.
Don't look for Buc QB Brad Johnson to play more than a series or 2, and don't expect him to be slinging the ball around the yard in his limited time. He skipped the throwing portion of a workout last week, raising suspicion he might be suffering from a sore arm. He claims he's fine, but Gruden won't be taking any chances. Shaun King will then take over and play into the 3rd quarter. He is eager to get on the field and show that he was it takes to be a starting QB in the NFL. We'll then see highly touted rookie Chris Simms who has been quite impressive in camp. He also is very motivated to play well when he gets his chances as he wants to show the other teams that allowed him to drop the draft's 3rd round, that they made a big mistake.
Meanwhile, the Jets' Chad Pennington's is off an incredible breakthrough season, posting a 104.2 passer rating while completing 68.9 percent of his throws. It will be hard for him to match those numbers and he will need an effective running game behind him. He has not looked particularly sharp in the pre-season thus far. In fact, he has been the second-best QB on the team during workouts, behind veteran Vinny Testeverde. Pennington, like Brad Johnson, will only be in for a series or 2. Testeverde will be held out of the game completely, as will RB Curtis Martin. Talk about leaving the cupboard bare. Jets fans will then get a long look at sixth-round rookie QB Brooks Bollinger. Then expect to see free agent rookie QB Marquel Blackwell in the second half. To make the center-rookie QB exchanges even more of an adventure, centers Dennis O'Sullivan and Matt O'Neal did not even make the trip to Japan.
The Jets are also without special teams coach Mike Westhoff, who didn't make the trip so he could tend to some personal matters after the death of his father. Herman Edwards will handle coaching the special teams in Saturday's game with the help of linebackers coach Bob Sutton and defensive assistant Dave Merritt. This game could very well be decided by a missed or made kick. Tampa is much more settled there with "Automatica" Grammatica than are the Jets who lost John Hall to the Redskins in the off-season.
Tampa defensive stars LB Derrick Brooks and CB Ronde Barber won't play Saturday, but as in all early preseason games, don't look for the other starters to play more than a series or two anyway. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string players are the ones who will determine the outcome of this game, and we much prefer the Tampa QB rotation of Johnson-King-Simms over Pennington-Bollinger-Blackwell.
While there won't be much game-planning on either side, we do know that Gruden, a self-proclaimed insomniac, spent the long flight to Japan studying the Jets and Dolphins and making preparations for this exhibition opener. While we are a bit hesitant to back a defending Super Bowl champion that would rather be at home in their own beds, we look for Gruden to have his team sufficiently motivated to play here. Again, we expect a close game with both teams playing quite conservatively. Last pre-season, the Tampa defense allowed just 13 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 outings, including a shutout. The Jets defense only gave up 16, 7, 16 and 6 points in their exhibition games last year.
In looking at some numbers, Tampa is 0-6 over/under vs. non-conference teams and 4-18 over/under record in preseason games with total of 35 points or less. In Week 0 & 1 of the pre-season, the Bucs are 1-10 over/under, while Gruden is 1-11 under with a total of less than 38 points. The stronger play on this game looks to be on the total rather than the side, although we do slightly favor Tampa to cover the number.
Tampa Bay -2 over New York Jets
The 2003 NFL preseason officially kicks off Saturday when the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers tangle with the New York Jets at the 18th American Bowl in Tokyo, Japan.
Tampa is fresh off the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl title after a 48-21 shellacking of the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. Head coach Jon Gruden has given his club plenty of motivation in its run for a second consecutive title, as he has promised to dance down the road in only a jockstrap if the team repeats. Actually, it could be argued that would provide the team with motivation to NOT win. Seriously, we do not expect much in the way of a let up from "Chucky" and his Bucs.
The Jets recovered from an ugly 1-4 start in 2002 to secure an AFC East title with wins in eight of their final 11 contests. Upstart quarterback Chad Pennington led the Jets to a Wild Card game blowout of the Indianapolis Colts, but the team's run ended against Oakland in the second round of the playoffs.
We expect little offense in this contest for a variety of reasons. Both teams figure to concentrate on their running games. The Buccaneers beat the odds in 2002, capturing a Super Bowl title with a rushing attack that statistically ranked 27th in the league, didn't have a 1,000-yard rusher, and featured a committee approach at the tailback position. Tampa failed to reach 75 rushing yards in nine games, and had just one individual 100-yard performance during the regular season. The lack of a viable go-to back often meant the Bucs went nowhere fast on the ground, a frustrating circumstance for coach Jon Gruden, who covets a power running game more than most people realize.
With Tampa Bay's starting tailback facing possible suspension or jail stemming from two felony assault charges for domestic violence, the Bucs will use the preseason as an open audition for Michael Pittman's job. Gruden said Aaron Stecker is the front-runner to win a spot at this point, because of his experience last season. Newcomers Thomas Jones and Terry Kirby also will get a serious look. FB Mike Alstott is also a backfield mainstay.
Don't look for Buc QB Brad Johnson to play more than a series or 2, and don't expect him to be slinging the ball around the yard in his limited time. He skipped the throwing portion of a workout last week, raising suspicion he might be suffering from a sore arm. He claims he's fine, but Gruden won't be taking any chances. Shaun King will then take over and play into the 3rd quarter. He is eager to get on the field and show that he was it takes to be a starting QB in the NFL. We'll then see highly touted rookie Chris Simms who has been quite impressive in camp. He also is very motivated to play well when he gets his chances as he wants to show the other teams that allowed him to drop the draft's 3rd round, that they made a big mistake.
Meanwhile, the Jets' Chad Pennington's is off an incredible breakthrough season, posting a 104.2 passer rating while completing 68.9 percent of his throws. It will be hard for him to match those numbers and he will need an effective running game behind him. He has not looked particularly sharp in the pre-season thus far. In fact, he has been the second-best QB on the team during workouts, behind veteran Vinny Testeverde. Pennington, like Brad Johnson, will only be in for a series or 2. Testeverde will be held out of the game completely, as will RB Curtis Martin. Talk about leaving the cupboard bare. Jets fans will then get a long look at sixth-round rookie QB Brooks Bollinger. Then expect to see free agent rookie QB Marquel Blackwell in the second half. To make the center-rookie QB exchanges even more of an adventure, centers Dennis O'Sullivan and Matt O'Neal did not even make the trip to Japan.
The Jets are also without special teams coach Mike Westhoff, who didn't make the trip so he could tend to some personal matters after the death of his father. Herman Edwards will handle coaching the special teams in Saturday's game with the help of linebackers coach Bob Sutton and defensive assistant Dave Merritt. This game could very well be decided by a missed or made kick. Tampa is much more settled there with "Automatica" Grammatica than are the Jets who lost John Hall to the Redskins in the off-season.
Tampa defensive stars LB Derrick Brooks and CB Ronde Barber won't play Saturday, but as in all early preseason games, don't look for the other starters to play more than a series or two anyway. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string players are the ones who will determine the outcome of this game, and we much prefer the Tampa QB rotation of Johnson-King-Simms over Pennington-Bollinger-Blackwell.
While there won't be much game-planning on either side, we do know that Gruden, a self-proclaimed insomniac, spent the long flight to Japan studying the Jets and Dolphins and making preparations for this exhibition opener. While we are a bit hesitant to back a defending Super Bowl champion that would rather be at home in their own beds, we look for Gruden to have his team sufficiently motivated to play here. Again, we expect a close game with both teams playing quite conservatively. Last pre-season, the Tampa defense allowed just 13 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 outings, including a shutout. The Jets defense only gave up 16, 7, 16 and 6 points in their exhibition games last year.
In looking at some numbers, Tampa is 0-6 over/under vs. non-conference teams and 4-18 over/under record in preseason games with total of 35 points or less. In Week 0 & 1 of the pre-season, the Bucs are 1-10 over/under, while Gruden is 1-11 under with a total of less than 38 points. The stronger play on this game looks to be on the total rather than the side, although we do slightly favor Tampa to cover the number.
